Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 5, 2020

[ Saturday, April 4, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, April 6, 2020 ]

DAY 188 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/05/2020 01:00:02 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.17°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.38°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 34.28°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.510 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 50 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.05 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.20 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.40 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.60 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 207 in SWE DAY: 95 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.04 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 95.23 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -97 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 5.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-05 12:59:45	FORECAST	2020	188	-97	40.17	28.38	34.275	211.87889625691	0.0519	0.2019	4.4	4.6019	T	F	8.17	50.17	96	460.03605465737	97.471931499188	0.51033187180932	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-05 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-97	40.89	25.63	33.26	211.87939867832	0.0766	0.2266	4.4	4.6266	T	F	8.89	50.89	96	460.03623059238	97.472199908154	0.54039370791903	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-05 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-97	37.06	24.62	30.84	212.12189903171	0.0811	0.2311	4.4	4.6311	T	F	5.06	47.06	96	460.12112175782	97.601766131871	0.38196515469175	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-05 00:59:46	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	40.03	23.19	31.61	211.99707258276	0.0813	0.2313	4.4	4.6313	T	F	8.03	50.03	95	459.55270867003	97.423828935524	0.5044743322311	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	40.07	26.74	33.405	212.05628484221	0.1082	0.2582	4.4	4.6582	T	F	8.07	50.07	95	459.5735144189	97.45545207955	0.50614806865944	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	40.17	27.21	33.69	212.26791153252	0.1682	0.3182	4.4	4.7182	T	F	8.17	50.17	95	459.64784932229	97.568489016056	0.51033187180932	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 13:00:01	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.96	25.93	32.945	212.21332804073	0.14	0.29	4.4	4.69	T	F	7.96	49.96	95	459.62868042928	97.539331936865	0.50154512167517	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.91	25.93	32.92	212.20950784569	0.1508	0.3008	4.4	4.7008	T	F	7.91	49.91	95	459.62733873531	97.537291345445	0.49945276821019	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-04 05:00:42	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.79	26.53	33.16	212.432144487	0.1773	0.3273	4.4	4.7273	T	F	7.79	49.79	95	459.70550941524	97.656227197568	0.49443129089103	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-04 00:58:44	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	40.46	26.47	33.465	212.31341920066	0.1528	0.3128	4.4	4.7128	T	F	8.46	50.46	95	459.66382889254	97.592799195044	0.52245682770237	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	40.42	25.39	32.905	211.39651325911	0.1738	0.3438	4.4	4.7438	T	F	8.42	51.42	95	459.34150980792	97.103193568569	0.5207854018074	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 17:00:01	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	40.8	25.72	33.26	211.41769478484	0.178	0.358	4.4	4.758	T	F	8.8	51.8	95	459.34896420316	97.114499113636	0.53664504759797	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	41.02	28.21	34.615	211.18999993878	0.1651	0.3251	4.4	4.7251	T	F	9.02	51.02	95	459.26881074103	96.992980112282	0.54580201963985	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 08:58:48	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	36.16	26.18	31.17	212.05079601357	0.1662	0.3262	4.4	4.7262	T	F	4.16	46.16	95	459.5715859095	97.452520617327	0.34652082527902	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-03 04:58:53	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	41.1	27.14	34.12	212.40101913625	0.1719	0.4119	4.4	4.8119	T	F	9.1	51.1	95	459.6945835493	97.639598037285	0.54912606039073	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-03 01:00:04	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	41.37	27.23	34.3	216.16990744141	0.1597	0.3897	4.32	4.7097	T	F	9.37	59.37	95	461.01130818241	99.656771819234	0.56031794649179	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-02 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	42.05	26.78	34.415	215.23630163144	0.1743	0.3743	4.32	4.6943	T	F	10.05	55.05	95	460.68631079389	99.156417747509	0.58827280772547	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-02 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	41.94	27.73	34.835	214.96610990223	0.1957	0.3557	4.32	4.6757	T	F	9.94	59.94	95	460.59211050332	99.011694246557	0.58377707628682	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-02 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.38	27.66	33.52	215.07884695438	0.1889	0.3189	4.32	4.6389	T	F	7.38	58.38	95	460.63142327861	99.072075389718	0.47728606417051	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:57:18	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	36.05	26.49	31.27	215.65560951683	0.1424	0.2924	4.32	4.6124	T	F	4.05	55.05	95	460.83237134571	99.381085927644	0.34227231742063	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	35.07	26.54	30.805	204.9910932257	0.1409	0.3209	4.33	4.6509	T	F	3.07	48.07	95	457.06875702754	93.695024182388	0.30535122407944	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.26	26	32.63	205.33225433513	0.1143	0.3443	4.39	4.7343	T	F	7.26	51.26	95	457.19074137065	93.876005586784	0.47227447687479	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-02 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.28	25.98	32.63	205.57415041861	0.1047	0.3847	4.39	4.7747	T	F	7.28	56.28	95	457.27716884389	94.004365490907	0.47310945820165	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.27	21.84	30.555	204.65963116706	0.089	0.409	4.36	4.769	T	F	7.27	50.27	95	456.95013935879	93.519246982907	0.47269195253844	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	40	25.33	32.665	204.86236127636	0.0896	0.4496	4.35	4.7996	T	F	8	56	95	457.0227006179	93.626749605482	0.50321897660829	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-01 12:59:48	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	40.01	25.34	32.675	205.60614861396	0.0896	0.4496	4.38	4.8296	T	F	8.01	56.01	95	457.28859755857	94.021347349099	0.50363743263818	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-04-01 08:58:59	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	35.1	24.02	29.56	206.23000174712	0.0879	0.4679	4.43	4.8979	T	F	3.1	46.1	95	457.51123211457	94.352542198315	0.30645501293351	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-04-01 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	32.19	24.94	28.565	206.80814550807	0.0863	0.5063	4.48	4.9863	T	F	0.19	46.19	95	457.71723963931	94.659653496879	0.20861870036702	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-04-01 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	32.21	24.95	28.58	206.73159349187	0.0863	0.4663	4.51	4.9763	T	F	0.21	51.21	95	457.68997955587	94.618978798849	0.20922170080956	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-31 20:59:49	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	36.08	25.66	30.87	204.42711596532	0.0468	0.2968	4.61	4.9068	T	F	4.08	55.08	95	456.86687139004	93.395976898364	0.34342905183985	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-31 16:58:57	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	37.76	26.15	31.955	204.27767232324	0.0585	0.3085	4.63	4.9385	T	F	5.76	58.76	95	456.81332690713	93.316763106826	0.4102520697861	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-31 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	37.78	26.17	31.975	205.22749410436	0.0585	0.3585	4.72	5.0785	T	F	5.78	58.78	95	457.1532949234	93.820425138679	0.41106793950937	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-31 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	37.81	28.07	32.94	209.15720707664	0.303	0.623	4.77	5.393	T	F	5.81	55.81	95	458.55116606052	95.909281194954	0.41229246450464	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-31 05:00:34	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	38.23	27.67	32.95	210.26050446779	0.2784	0.4984	5.19	5.6884	T	F	6.23	55.23	95	458.94112713721	96.497192912886	0.42952022734753	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-31 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	38.25	27.68	32.965	211.07960497888	0.2784	0.5184	5.33	5.8484	T	F	6.25	60.25	95	459.22993266169	96.934072780706	0.43034422883232	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-30 21:00:01	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.31	26.37	32.84	205.8735009599	0.1928	0.3128	5.04	5.3528	T	F	7.31	58.31	95	457.38405082724	94.163255827024	0.47436215061579	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-30 16:59:49	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	38.59	26.21	32.4	206.67144374986	0.3239	0.4939	4.94	5.4339	T	F	6.59	57.59	95	457.66855658415	94.587021348159	0.44439579318917	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-30 13:00:01	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.89	24.71	32.3	206.92416715923	0.3239	0.4939	5.08	5.5739	T	F	7.89	61.89	95	457.75854471053	94.721305624246	0.49861582781593	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-30 09:28:45	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	30.62	24.86	27.74	215.24494653726	0.8594	0.9894	5.15	6.1394	T	F	-1.38	59.62	95	460.68932370734	99.16104885167	0.16453397741074	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-03-30 09:00:34	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	30.63	24.88	27.755	209.25836337572	0.8594	0.9894	5.13	6.1194	T	F	-1.37	59.63	95	458.58696533254	95.963157830928	0.16479419762029	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-03-30 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	36.86	25.85	31.355	208.1133226892	0.7282	0.8982	5.52	6.4182	T	T	4.86	68.86	95	458.1811970538	95.353611312584	0.3739904423108	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-30 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	36.89	25.9	31.395	209.74337210672	0.7282	0.8982	5.95	6.8482	T	T	4.89	71.89	95	458.75848247988	96.221551097894	0.37518331187267	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-29 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.71	25.33	32.52	206.68793920329	0.4366	1.0066	5.8	6.8066	T	T	7.71	70.71	95	457.67443194143	94.595785164012	0.49108408038021	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-03-29 16:59:07	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	39.79	30.33	35.06	204.91070377553	0.3043	0.8443	5.67	6.5143	T	T	7.79	70.79	95	457.03999787216	93.652387617553	0.49443129089103	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-29 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	34.72	30.37	32.545	205.30373802517	0.2651	0.8051	5.71	6.5151	T	T	2.72	65.72	95	457.1805492291	93.860875709135	0.29260620924811	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-29 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	24.38	22.11	23.245	204.82272143884	0.0002	0.1402	5.77	5.9102	T	F	-7.62	51.38	95	457.00851564653	93.605727895447	0.051362709038428	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-29 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	25.45	22.66	24.055	205.0162862647	0	0.1	5.97	6.07	T	F	-6.55	52.45	95	457.07776857538	93.708386647483	0.064357159166082	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-29 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	188	-98	23.68	23.68	23.68	207.06233054009	0	0.4	5.95	6.35	T	F	-8.32	48.68	95	457.8077166218	94.794732742947	0.044052821241033	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L