MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 3, 2020

[ Thursday, April 2, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 4, 2020 ]

DAY 186 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/03/2020 09:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.19°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.78°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.49°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.155
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 60

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.13 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.51 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.04 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.55 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 211 in
SWE DAY: 93
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 96.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -99

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 4.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-03 08:58:48FORECAST2020186-9930.1920.7825.485211.565508950320.12740.50744.044.5474TF-1.8160.1994458.8736756129497.0818427249550.15509801535801861113124.5WETL
2020-04-03 04:58:53FORECAST2020186-9928.4522.0825.265212.135959950850.20740.58744.044.6274TF-3.5558.4594459.0749713173297.3863097298080.11139190054924861113124.5WETL
2020-04-03 01:00:04FORECAST2020186-10031.5621.6826.62215.836371900410.1870.4874.044.527TF-0.4466.5693459.8500871081599.2523744195080.19655309519201861112123WETL
2020-04-02 21:00:02FORECAST2020186-10031.1918.5224.855214.794645237320.16750.46754.044.5075TF-0.8166.1993459.4843253225798.694772649770.18474648898279861112123WETL
2020-04-02 17:00:02FORECAST2020186-10031.4618.8325.145214.60257852690.12540.42544.044.4654TF-0.5466.4693459.4167828386398.5920262157040.19331798593788861112123WETL
2020-04-02 13:00:03FORECAST2020186-10031.6221.4526.535214.539687074630.1140.4144.044.454TF-0.3866.6293459.3946591685898.5583864217830.19850977690189861112123WETL
2020-04-02 09:57:18FORECAST2020186-10031.6921.326.495215.225462641110.13020.43024.044.4702TF-0.3166.6993459.6357074598198.925307784410.20080733204237861112123WETL
2020-04-02 09:00:02FORECAST2020186-10026.4720.3823.425204.507117423520.16360.47364.044.5136TF-5.5361.4793455.8198103921993.2183954878440.073265820006355861112123WETL
2020-04-02 05:00:03FORECAST2020186-10031.1322.3626.745204.958731912370.18970.55974.044.5997TF-0.8761.1393455.9826972499193.4576354023220.18287421689972861113124.5WETL
2020-04-02 01:00:03FORECAST2020186-10031.0122.2726.64205.165692022830.23320.60324.044.6432TF-0.9966.0193456.0572805452293.5673075651110.17916527004384861113124.5WETL
2020-04-01 21:00:02FORECAST2020186-10031.0421.4526.245204.236656316030.26070.60074.044.6407TF-0.9661.0493455.722171858493.0751725894370.1800880520727861113124.5WETL
2020-04-01 17:00:02FORECAST2020186-10031.0521.4426.245204.317646805210.28930.61934.044.6593TF-0.9566.0593455.7514170818993.1180570663130.18039630641411861113124.5WETL
2020-04-01 12:59:48FORECAST2020186-10031.221.6926.445205.12926072690.30340.66344.044.7034TF-0.866.293456.0441544521393.5480002615890.18505968621039861113124.5WETL
2020-04-01 08:58:59FORECAST2020186-10030.962226.48205.371258292350.31150.72154.044.7615TF-1.0467.9693456.131322733393.6762636962940.17763390732212861113124.5WETL
2020-04-01 05:00:02FORECAST2020186-10030.9422.7726.855206.084419114880.37470.83474.044.8747TF-1.0664.9493456.3878941036894.0544340474210.17702367629399861113124.5WETL
2020-04-01 01:00:03FORECAST2020186-10031.8520.9626.405206.006024187840.33480.82484.044.8648TF-0.1569.8593456.3597129667294.0128500677780.20611833780561861113124.5WETL
2020-03-31 20:59:49FORECAST2020186-10031.1622.2726.715204.216650799420.23330.82334.044.8633TF-0.8468.1693455.7149470489493.064580205570.18380887146006861113124.5WETL
2020-03-31 16:58:57FORECAST2020186-10032.0121.8826.945204.201344621510.23650.84654.044.8865TF0.00999999999999869.0193455.7094191148193.0564761399330.21151157681383861113124.5WETL
2020-03-31 13:00:03FORECAST2020186-10032.5421.1326.835205.145452790640.29220.99224.045.0322TF0.5468.5493456.0499885569593.5565813976810.22995531989075861114126WETL
2020-03-31 09:00:02FORECAST2020186-10028.521.1224.81207.715003334870.2881.0384.045.078TF-3.565.593456.9727804736794.9201026200340.11251043356782861114126WETL
2020-03-31 05:00:34FORECAST2020186-10032.3621.5226.94209.18382843440.20221.29224.125.4122TF0.3664.3693457.4975744008495.701094112620.22359271740845861114126WETL
2020-03-31 01:00:02FORECAST2020186-10032.3821.5426.96209.969089764390.21741.31744.255.5674TF0.3868.3893457.7773368984996.1190907433410.22429469975396861114126WETL
2020-03-30 21:00:01FORECAST2020186-10033.0218.6725.845204.996685497250.08640.76644.385.1464TF1.0268.0293455.9963777172993.4777460307960.24740701509393861113124.5WETL
2020-03-30 16:59:49FORECAST2020186-10032.3920.1226.255204.412927952370.07380.69384.345.0338TF0.3969.3993455.7858148826793.1685129393220.22464615875956861113124.5WETL
2020-03-30 13:00:01FORECAST2020186-10033.3620.8527.105204.769645805970.07380.74384.435.1738TF1.3671.3693455.9145210202993.3574549871230.26018358326099862113126WETL
2020-03-30 09:28:45FORECAST2020186-10038.1922.7330.46208.533167085760.0490.6594.565.219TF6.1975.1993457.265342294895.3549900272880.46965199444173862113126WETL
2020-03-30 09:00:34FORECAST2020186-10038.222.7430.47202.486906361630.0490.6994.55.199TF6.275.293455.0888754539792.1495385102680.47011866609067862113126WETL
2020-03-30 05:00:02FORECAST2020186-10038.4521.9430.195203.800390985530.06650.62654.985.6065TF6.4579.4593455.5645353016592.8442304136170.48179713394938862113126WETL
2020-03-30 01:00:03FORECAST2020186-10038.5121.9930.25205.256377722180.06650.63655.46.0365TF6.5181.5193456.0899490723993.6153708620920.48460267202528862113126WETL
2020-03-29 21:00:02FORECAST2020186-10036.1323.4829.805203.979022976310.32131.07135.076.1413TF4.1381.1393455.6291018480492.9387790345350.37531557382879862114128WETL
2020-03-29 16:59:07FORECAST2020186-10035.0125.8830.445203.655227940310.35770.95775.096.0477TF3.0180.0193455.5120445274792.7674092577970.32664402982432862113126WETL
2020-03-29 13:00:02FORECAST2020186-10035.0625.9430.5203.907914405510.35770.91775.176.0877TF3.0680.0693455.6034031595292.9011397343110.32876234617894862113126WETL
2020-03-29 09:00:02FORECAST2020186-10038.4321.529.965204.782910955130.1010.8215.075.891TF6.4376.4393455.9193049244393.3644824230640.48086214800619862113126WETL
2020-03-29 05:00:02FORECAST2020186-10037.1721.9229.545205.04285899910.08040.58045.496.0704TF5.1776.1793456.013019296893.5022132174310.42238233679954862113126WETL
2020-03-29 01:00:01FORECAST2020186-10038.821.4430.12204.71755987230.07530.51535.536.0453TF6.875.893455.8957353442193.3298624958550.49817101867088862113126WETL
2020-03-28 20:59:52FORECAST2020186-10040.0825.332.69208.380979337390.92091.24095.817.0509TT8.0877.0893457.2109684915695.2740693780670.55787127305318631141210WETL
2020-03-28 16:59:06FORECAST2020186-10040.2627.0233.64205.388504887190.7770.9875.66.587TT8.2687.2693456.137532965793.6854059187570.56619317406255863113127.5WETL
2020-03-28 13:00:02FORECAST2020186-10040.3127.0533.68205.316544970960.7770.9875.596.577TT8.3184.3193456.1116195108293.647261839070.5684997784079863113127.5WETL
2020-03-28 09:00:02FORECAST2020186-10046.4431.6939.065201.553630357040.01430.08435.425.5043TF14.44102.4493454.7499371052991.6565007282070.8137421028637864111123WETL
2020-03-28 04:59:08FORECAST2020186-10046.734.2240.46201.509031296560.02890.07895.535.6089TF14.7110.793454.7337199166491.6329513982860.82181082909566864111123WETL
2020-03-28 01:00:03FORECAST2020186-10046.7334.2440.485193.847939996510.02890.07895.495.5689TF14.73113.7393451.9205403587887.6038657906570.82272748115114864111123WETL
2020-03-27 21:00:02FORECAST2020186-10045.6432.8939.265193.59282546310.05930.18935.495.6793TF13.6496.6493451.8259163407487.4702557618580.78753071942061864112126WETL
2020-03-27 17:00:01FORECAST2020186-10040.4927.3433.915195.173557218830.07870.33875.585.9187TF8.4997.4993452.4112365215388.2987103576770.576783685027863112125WETL
2020-03-27 13:00:03FORECAST2020186-10034.4627.430.93196.217796825250.05860.31865.595.9086TF2.4689.4693452.796615040688.8467542131960.30372260817307862112124WETL
2020-03-27 09:00:02FORECAST2020186-10027.0825.2926.185199.32991518810.01270.26275.986.2427TF-4.9275.0893453.9391039578490.4836430924780.083767876454672861112123WETL
2020-03-27 05:00:02FORECAST2020186-10027.525.9126.705201.316967780810.00220.29226.156.4422TF-4.576.593454.6638604493791.5315497451840.091628437457594861112123WETL
2020-03-27 01:00:03FORECAST2020186-100323232199.912310087550.00040.26046.326.5804TF08893454.1519054348390.7905565461380.21117210216325861112123WETL