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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, April 27, 2020

[ Sunday, April 26, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, April 28, 2020 ]

DAY 210 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/28/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.56°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.75°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.329
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 187

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.69 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.07 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 169 in
SWE DAY: 117
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 77.22 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -76

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 8.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-28 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020210-7639.5631.9400635.75003169.309829130430.691.391.683.07TF7.56186.56117456.07516695498 77.2180085877830.3294900208054990 2114128DRYL
2020-04-28 00:00:02FORECAST2020210-7532.7932.7932.79169.995681333330.00350.70351.682.3835FF0.79179.79118456.8589953209977.6640561828540.1408009305751901113124.5DRYL
2020-04-27 12:00:02FORECAST2020210-7542.5732.0637.315169.6177160.07490.77491.682.4549FF10.57189.57118456.7235264338877.4684013971810.43686931939377902113126DRYL
2020-04-27 08:00:02FORECAST2020210-7543.0132.4737.74169.547141333330.36121.06121.682.7412FF11.01190.01118456.6982169197577.4318771307750.45318068920517902114128DRYL
2020-04-27 04:00:03FORECAST2020210-7542.2332.4437.335169.098094166670.5681.2681.682.948FF10.23189.23118456.5370731365777.1995489838230.4243367165293902114128DRYL
2020-04-27 00:00:01FORECAST2020210-7643.8632.0737.965170.594944987790.85931.53931.683.2193TF11.86176.86117456.5373560156277.8829651343570.484891778977669021151210DRYL
2020-04-26 20:00:01FORECAST2020210-7644.2232.3138.265171.312785333330.91781.59781.683.2778TF12.22196.22117456.7948697354178.254801460350.498362957778619021151210DRYL
2020-04-26 16:00:03FORECAST2020210-7639.7432.3836.06171.409654666670.76921.44921.683.1292TF7.74191.74117456.8295841146778.3050012546130.3356249859958902114128DRYL
2020-04-26 12:00:03FORECAST2020210-7643.4932.137.795170.528974666670.86091.54091.683.2209TF11.49195.49117456.5136666538277.8488074957960.471064495564019021151210DRYL
2020-04-26 08:00:02FORECAST2020210-7643.632.3937.995170.561947954260.83391.50391.683.1839TF11.6191.6117456.5255075674377.8658798615090.475172422888039021151210DRYL
2020-04-26 04:00:04FORECAST2020210-7643.3132.5637.935170.049635794950.80241.48241.683.1624TF11.31195.31117456.3414210264177.6006924436910.46434926754299902114128DRYL
2020-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2020210-7644.0433.0838.56170.493540859250.81220.83221.682.5122FF12.04189.04117456.5009410466577.8304618446250.49162617449475902113126DRYL
2020-04-25 20:00:03FORECAST2020210-7644.2833.7939.035170.433670225680.88071.07071.682.7507FF12.28202.28117456.4794366574277.7994657720750.500608750840919031241212DRYL
2020-04-25 16:00:02FORECAST2020210-7643.4334.5538.99170.398181642870.85761.04761.682.7276FF11.43201.43117456.4666882918177.7810936654660.468825076849129021241210DRYL
2020-04-25 11:57:34FORECAST2020210-7644.734.2839.49169.932800031260.88471.06471.682.7447FF12.7203.7117456.2994054664977.5402356235190.516324777802459031241212DRYL
2020-04-25 08:00:03FORECAST2020210-7644.0433.9739.005169.830436181010.84891.48891.683.1689TF12.04204.04117456.2625839334177.4872736424870.491626174494759021241210DRYL
2020-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2020210-7642.933.638.25170.383620779520.83781.45781.683.1378TF10.9201.9117456.4614573416277.7735558481610.449094332148449021241210DRYL
2020-04-24 23:57:48FORECAST2020210-7643.1834.1138.645169.701509390730.73761.29761.692.9876FF11.18206.18117456.2161937601577.4205766895920.459505577482049021241210DRYL
2020-04-24 20:01:15FORECAST2020210-7640.7632.9436.85171.986889604460.70071.20071.692.8907FF8.76197.76117457.0362667237878.6042459502590.37117920695857902114128DRYL
2020-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2020210-7640.7733.0136.89171.706466976560.69271.19271.692.8827FF8.77202.77117456.9358974820778.4588485914120.371533877516319021241210DRYL
2020-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2020210-7644.6132.9438.775171.069307085670.75911.46911.693.1591TF12.61204.61117456.7075784303778.1286489828560.512958359992429031241212DRYL
2020-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2020210-7641.5932.6637.125171.339894376880.7571.4571.683.137TF9.59194.59117456.8045854727178.2688494257710.4009618833401902114128DRYL
2020-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2020210-7644.532.8938.695171.094388197190.69251.41251.673.0825TF12.5206.5117456.7165729515678.1416426286660.508842619171799031241212DRYL
2020-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2020210-7642.7132.137.405172.263568239770.59471.29471.282.5747FF10.71197.71117457.135225870478.747745176530.44204902333767902114128DRYL
2020-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2020210-7642.7132.1237.415172.488041867680.5771.3571.362.717FF10.71204.71117457.2154618624478.8641997282770.442049023337679021241210DRYL
2020-04-23 16:01:14FORECAST2020210-7642.5631.1336.845171.52761326890.56331.37331.372.7433FF10.56204.56117456.8718445748878.366137069690.436499743477349021241210DRYL
2020-04-23 12:00:01FORECAST2020210-7642.6630.7936.725171.650370961660.53241.50241.362.8624FF10.66197.66117456.9158109391478.4297684459510.440197944099119021151210DRYL
2020-04-23 08:01:13FORECAST2020210-7642.6630.7936.725171.769315131280.53241.53241.432.9624FF10.66189.66117456.9583983937278.4914311355750.440197944099119021151210DRYL
2020-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020210-7643.3131.2337.27171.700276558710.52931.51931.523.0393TF11.31198.31117456.9336809928478.455639395460.464349267542999021151210DRYL
2020-04-23 00:00:02FORECAST2020210-7641.332.236.75172.562496277690.62031.69030.752.4403FF9.3194.3117457.2420647909478.9028321034910.390480475841169021151210DRYL
2020-04-22 19:57:50FORECAST2020210-7641.332.236.75174.262366124640.62031.83031.893.7203TF9.3200.3117457.8480700486279.7856880122750.390480475841169021251212.5DRYL
2020-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020210-7642.6532.9837.815172.553642330450.61011.95011.933.8801TF10.65201.65117457.2389014954178.8982378682080.439827883702629021251212.5DRYL
2020-04-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020210-7641.0131.8336.42175.725400153120.43631.67631.93.5763TF9.01199.01117458.3675521032680.5468215105520.380078042380939021251212.5DRYL
2020-04-22 08:00:01FORECAST2020210-7641.0131.8336.42176.157728281770.43631.42632.183.6063TF9.01191.01117458.5206904635280.7719632022440.38007804238093902114128DRYL
2020-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2020210-7640.230.3635.28175.329390232130.611.632.033.66TF8.2192.2117458.2271306590680.3406834062720.351500166610199021151210DRYL
2020-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2020210-7645.9731.8538.91174.798564669240.32611.13611.812.9461FF13.97204.97117458.0386831451180.0645043767550.563593657059289031241212DRYL
2020-04-21 20:00:02FORECAST2020210-7645.9731.8538.91174.905174497370.32611.17612.023.1961TF13.97206.97117458.0765509188180.1199590716070.563593657059289031241212DRYL
2020-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2020210-7643.5530.8437.195177.942547031360.3791.1792.233.409TF11.55213.55117459.1511280430581.70252119630.473304829607429021241210DRYL
2020-04-21 12:00:02FORECAST2020210-7639.0129.6234.315178.766348900480.87241.83241.793.6224TF7.01213.01117459.4411505208382.1326170132440.311032183719819021251212.5DRYL
2020-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2020210-7639.0129.6234.315178.116484312960.87241.83241.523.3524TF7.01210.01117459.212413852181.7933007082050.311032183719819021251212.5DRYL
2020-04-21 04:00:03FORECAST2020210-7636.2430.9333.585175.483008585180.78671.65671.32.9567TF4.24218.24117458.2816190709780.4206372938610.225769038452689011251210DRYL
2020-04-21 00:00:04FORECAST2020210-7641.7228.4335.075175.478019736930.68261.64261.162.8026FF9.72205.72117458.2798498610880.418040538960.405684177335419021251212.5DRYL
2020-04-20 20:00:02FORECAST2020210-7641.7232.337.01175.203604663290.53311.49311.272.7631FF9.72222.72117458.1824986980380.2752253655290.405684177335419021241210DRYL
2020-04-20 16:00:02FORECAST2020210-7640.7232.5236.62175.125349924460.7521.5821.312.892FF8.72223.72117458.1547247041580.234506483360.369761620807589021251212.5DRYL
2020-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2020210-7633.8932.233.045178.989734817450.68731.61731.413.0273TF1.89221.89117459.5196898200382.2493074242850.165167886809079011251210DRYL
2020-04-20 08:00:02FORECAST2020210-7633.2832.4732.875178.041982342890.42891.35891.622.9789FF1.28211.28117459.1861668228381.7544154055670.15133767482222901124128DRYL
2020-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2020210-7635.5934.7735.18174.930909575220.29431.26431.32.5643FF3.59218.59117458.0856904731580.1333464978590.20786334727452901124128DRYL