Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, April 26, 2020

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DAY 209 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/27/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.79°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.21°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.50°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.541 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 201 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.04 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.76 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.62 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.38 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 170 in SWE DAY: 116 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.62 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 77.25 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -77 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 9.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-27 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	209	-77	44.79008	26.20994	35.50001	169.5567475	0.04000000000002	0.76000000000002	1.62	2.38	F	F	12.79008	200.79008	116	455.62446662796	77.254202642859	0.54144397425907	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-27 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	209	-76	31.21	31.21	31.21	171.06973910541	0.0191	0.7391	1.62	2.3591	F	F	-0.79	187.21	117	456.70773336499	78.128872794171	0.11007569405436	87	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-76	50.19	37.1	43.645	171.16338133333	0.0176	0.7376	1.62	2.3576	F	F	18.19	206.19	117	456.74131212983	78.177387378764	0.73658790101213	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	209	-76	45.65	28.63	37.14	171.23418395426	0.0116	0.7316	1.62	2.3516	F	F	13.65	201.65	117	456.76669563616	78.214072384744	0.57467036744995	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	209	-76	50.33	28.92	39.625	170.70886112828	0.0154	0.7354	1.62	2.3554	F	F	18.33	206.33	117	456.57825295513	77.941953577912	0.74104564251806	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-26 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	51.42	29.45	40.435	171.09799019259	0.0248	0.0848	1.62	1.7048	F	F	19.42	199.42	116	456.18035190071	78.051541375559	0.77437402576422	87	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-25 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	50.5	27.26	38.88	171.10825689235	0.0205	0.2505	1.62	1.8705	F	F	18.5	211.5	116	456.18404753494	78.056857195799	0.74640574776765	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	50.75	27.29	39.02	171.07867230953	0.0171	0.2471	1.62	1.8671	F	F	18.75	211.75	116	456.17339791219	78.041539257746	0.75418125018711	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-25 11:57:34	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	51.63	29.38	40.505	170.66085069792	0.0058	0.2358	1.62	1.8558	F	F	19.63	212.63	116	456.02290832078	77.825257471765	0.78050472003155	87	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-25 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	51.83	29.88	40.855	170.51464418101	0.0065	0.6965	1.62	2.3165	F	F	19.83	213.83	116	455.97021041359	77.749598185815	0.78625364369254	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-25 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	51.99	29.68	40.835	170.79945829533	0.0088	0.6788	1.62	2.2988	F	F	19.99	212.99	116	456.0728492458	77.89699559439	0.79078909676585	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 23:57:48	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	51.12	30.09	40.605	170.30743472407	0.0083	0.6283	1.62	2.2483	F	F	19.12	217.12	116	455.89549139821	77.642391642298	0.76545040590397	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	49.69	29.78	39.735	171.75943410642	0.0081	0.5681	1.62	2.1881	F	F	17.69	210.69	116	456.41825058254	78.394140435897	0.7203543273426	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	49.5	30.12	39.81	171.60823010289	0.0185	0.5685	1.62	2.1885	F	F	17.5	215.5	116	456.36390292525	78.315801663849	0.71406086566927	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	49.47	30.25	39.86	170.97531489234	0.0288	0.7788	1.62	2.3988	F	F	17.47	214.47	116	456.13618584913	77.988028009346	0.71306104676502	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	49.26	30.11	39.685	171.18331549429	0.0342	0.7642	1.62	2.3842	F	F	17.26	207.26	116	456.21106294284	78.095722319729	0.70601640846228	87	4	1	2	3	1	2	10.5	DRY	L
2020-04-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	49.05	30	39.525	171.25227011927	0.0451	0.7651	1.62	2.3851	F	F	17.05	216.05	116	456.23587684286	78.131429619197	0.69889292395614	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	47.58	29.4	38.49	171.20641595187	0.0373	0.7573	1.22	1.9773	F	F	15.58	208.58	116	456.21937632032	78.107684307599	0.64701282766448	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	46.18	29.27	37.725	171.48103156749	0.0599	0.8399	1.3	2.1399	F	F	14.18	216.18	116	456.31816744944	78.249910077217	0.59490312081968	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-23 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	45.78	29.47	37.625	171.46448123666	0.1005	0.8805	1.3	2.1805	F	F	13.78	215.78	116	456.31221552987	78.241337317779	0.57965352536421	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-23 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	39.54	29.42	34.48	171.26696117468	0.1824	1.0324	1.3	2.3324	F	F	7.54	208.54	116	456.24116298076	78.139037546516	0.34089261953853	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-23 08:01:13	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	39.13	29.44	34.285	171.37134209824	0.1804	1.0604	1.37	2.4304	F	F	7.13	201.13	116	456.27871566222	78.193095873895	0.32629122379837	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	45.56	29.33	37.445	171.71423925693	0.2164	1.0464	1.46	2.5064	F	F	13.56	208.56	116	456.40200826451	78.370723644477	0.57121343824169	87	3	1	2	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-04-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	43.22	28.3	35.76	172.17236882766	0.2404	1.2304	0.59	1.8204	F	F	11.22	207.22	116	456.56656651401	78.608147284229	0.48019142549538	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 19:57:50	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	43.22	28.37	35.795	173.55205035816	0.2383	1.3583	1.74	3.0983	T	F	11.22	213.22	116	457.06098731078	79.323871486512	0.48019142549538	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	40.98	29.53	35.255	172.62386871109	0.2127	1.4727	1.8	3.2727	T	F	8.98	212.98	116	456.72855616361	78.842250315793	0.39395765814866	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	39.83	28.73	34.28	174.50108893705	0.2966	1.2666	1.87	3.1366	T	F	7.83	211.83	116	457.40007905381	79.816811874781	0.35136783796573	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	39.83	28.73	34.28	174.89901010265	0.2966	1.0166	2.15	3.1666	F	F	7.83	203.83	116	457.54201336029	80.023645217089	0.35136783796573	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	39.01	28.39	33.7	175.27183710799	0.2719	1.0619	1.99	3.0519	F	F	7.01	206.01	116	457.67486673508	80.21751469081	0.32206625483852	87	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	43.04	30.67	36.855	175.00228238908	0.1374	0.8774	1.74	2.6174	F	F	11.04	213.04	116	457.57882606099	80.077338933589	0.47317179252105	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	43.04	30.67	36.855	175.09845865094	0.1374	0.9174	1.95	2.8674	F	F	11.04	215.04	116	457.61310061195	80.12734857563	0.47317179252105	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	42.81	30.22	36.515	176.84527401107	0.1816	0.8816	2.15	3.0316	F	F	10.81	223.81	116	458.23416228452	81.036545990439	0.46421466326445	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	46.21	30.5	38.355	175.3885343382	0.511	0.971	1.78	2.751	F	F	14.21	228.21	116	457.71642484267	80.278212895676	0.59604135880207	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	46.21	30.5	38.355	174.61009431097	0.511	0.981	1.5	2.481	F	F	14.21	225.21	116	457.43897439492	79.87346246061	0.59604135880207	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	46.7	30.65	38.675	172.63883439309	0.433	0.873	1.3	2.173	F	F	14.7	235.7	116	456.73392238804	78.850011988852	0.61451095662849	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	44.35	29.32	36.835	173.76789189743	0.4491	0.9591	1.16	2.1191	F	F	12.35	218.35	116	457.13817937864	79.435937736454	0.52431191031379	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	44.35	29.32	36.835	174.59643198299	0.4491	0.9591	1.27	2.2291	F	F	12.35	235.35	116	457.43409998786	79.866361725232	0.52431191031379	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	45.74	30.61	38.175	173.56852149243	0.2977	0.8277	1.31	2.1377	F	F	13.74	236.74	116	457.06687942437	79.332422484847	0.57812156619072	87	3	1	2	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-04-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	43.28	31.2	37.24	174.83941686306	0.5874	0.9374	1.4	2.3374	F	F	11.28	242.28	116	457.52076620898	79.99266396672	0.48253277696528	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	43.28	31.2	37.24	175.54281503118	0.5874	0.9374	1.61	2.5474	F	F	11.28	232.28	116	457.77134823303	80.358471109446	0.48253277696528	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	43.48	29.77	36.625	174.99886024188	0.5345	0.9845	1.29	2.2745	F	F	11.48	237.48	116	457.57760634842	80.075559583182	0.49034118025965	87	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	43.6	34.11	38.855	173.06840597441	1.6332	2.9832	1.63	4.6132	T	F	11.6	217.6	116	456.8878663631	79.07285474051	0.49502819157781	87	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-04-19 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	43.6	34.11	38.855	174.76968346934	0.9772	2.3272	1.58	3.9072	T	F	11.6	231.6	116	457.49589964106	79.956413568789	0.49502819157781	87	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-19 15:59:36	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	42.42	29.84	36.13	175.69358134463	0.2222	1.6722	1.61	3.2822	T	F	10.42	230.42	116	457.82499972735	80.436913831202	0.44907023369942	87	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	36.6	33.3	34.95	175.35086962668	0.58	0.76	1.6	2.36	F	F	4.6	234.6	116	457.70301306738	80.258621372116	0.24260547655405	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	36.6	34.8	35.7	173.38332282788	0.4928	0.6728	1.58	2.2528	F	F	4.6	230.6	116	457.00061529125	79.236285213582	0.24260547655405	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-19 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	209	-77	34.14	32.12	33.13	174.93363910908	0.2597	0.6397	1.75	2.3897	F	F	2.14	232.14	116	457.55435837973	80.041649001588	0.17388455862293	87	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L