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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 25, 2020

[ Friday, April 24, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 26, 2020 ]

DAY 208 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/26/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.35°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.22°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.324
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 210

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.66 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 172 in
SWE DAY: 115
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 78.19 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -78

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 2
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-26 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020208-7838.3500434.0899836.22001171.5508380.659999999999971.121.232.35FF6.35004210.35004115455.8043299498 78.1936147669160.3239094651605589 21241210DRYL
2020-04-26 00:00:02FORECAST2020208-7730.2230.2230.22172.005140910160.00140.46141.231.6914FF-1.78202.22116456.5065211272978.5214684929060.10283231945964891122124DRYL
2020-04-25 11:57:34FORECAST2020208-7743.363036.68171.618007894120.17270.63271.231.8627FF11.36215.36116456.3674180140478.3208671473550.51647796277071893123129DRYL
2020-04-25 08:00:02FORECAST2020208-7743.5630.737.13171.455441118940.62771.08771.232.3177FF11.56215.56116456.3089643681378.2366547722650.52440024475228931241212DRYL
2020-04-25 04:00:04FORECAST2020208-7743.2130.3936.8171.723358372570.61251.07251.232.3025FF11.21215.21116456.4052856813978.3754484362020.510531807300358931241212DRYL
2020-04-24 23:57:48FORECAST2020208-7843.2530.7136.98171.174252623860.55181.02181.232.2518FF11.25220.25115455.6683465998677.9986886735810.512117732293078931241212DRYL
2020-04-24 20:01:14FORECAST2020208-7837.6430.1233.88172.541715199820.48820.95821.232.1882FF5.64214.64115456.1615106535478.7068894563020.29896051355836892123127.5DRYL
2020-04-24 16:00:03FORECAST2020208-7842.5230.4736.495172.356193782240.4820.9521.232.182FF10.52219.52115456.0947042796978.6107472338840.48316977442351892123127.5DRYL
2020-04-24 12:00:03FORECAST2020208-7842.230.4936.345171.677461180590.67691.14691.232.3769FF10.2219.2115455.8500238197678.259174768490.470499194104738921241210DRYL
2020-04-24 08:00:03FORECAST2020208-7838.8530.4934.67171.843333237330.66791.12791.232.3579FF6.85211.85115455.9098590032878.3450698268880.341972773765818921241210DRYL
2020-04-24 04:00:04FORECAST2020208-7842.1530.4536.3171.904545450990.67251.12251.232.3525FF10.15221.15115455.9319337755178.3767718322710.468521784135088921241210DRYL
2020-04-24 00:00:02FORECAST2020208-7841.6229.8835.75171.739010413320.66280.72281.231.9528FF9.62214.62115455.8722294742478.2910455648190.44761848033028892123127.5DRYL
2020-04-23 20:00:02FORECAST2020208-7841.9929.6835.835171.804991460350.71930.85931.232.0893FF9.99223.99115455.8960301779478.3252135715280.46219952773792892123127.5DRYL
2020-04-23 16:01:14FORECAST2020208-7841.7829.7635.77171.678278716010.71310.86311.232.0931FF9.78223.78115455.850318791978.2595980823370.45391628787503892123127.5DRYL
2020-04-23 12:00:01FORECAST2020208-7841.1129.7335.42171.428954014120.7850.9251.232.155FF9.11223.11115455.7603324055878.1305170654140.42763973153874892123127.5DRYL
2020-04-23 08:01:13FORECAST2020208-7837.9429.933.92171.528538556460.81971.02971.232.2597FF5.94215.94115455.7962813397678.1820700176790.309395797225718921241210DRYL
2020-04-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020208-7840.4429.9235.18171.999700507230.76791.06791.232.2979FF8.44217.44115455.9662424367378.4260571405230.401680329750148921241210DRYL
2020-04-23 00:00:02FORECAST2020208-7838.8729.7934.33172.074835389560.82991.40990.181.5899FF6.87217.87115455.993326859778.4649766581230.342703288788558921241210DRYL
2020-04-22 19:57:50FORECAST2020208-7838.7729.7234.245173.413812466950.9741.6941.182.874FF6.77223.77115456.4751319327979.1590929248180.339056645190378921251212.5DRYL
2020-04-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020208-7841.8629.8335.845172.763991187181.13411.89411.183.0741TF9.86225.86115456.2415109272778.8221043730630.457069643211478921251212.5DRYL
2020-04-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020208-7840.2228.5334.375173.865262886750.93721.66721.182.8472FF8.22226.22115456.6372086324479.3933483227490.393244215587578921251212.5DRYL
2020-04-22 08:00:01FORECAST2020208-7839.9828.5334.255174.245545027420.69241.42241.462.8824FF7.98217.98115456.7735908353379.5907632892360.384098128909348921241210DRYL
2020-04-22 04:00:04FORECAST2020208-7840.628.2634.43174.801728963790.74991.38991.42.7899FF8.6220.6115456.972820369879.8796390900990.407844832640548921241210DRYL
2020-04-22 00:00:03FORECAST2020208-784230.8136.405175.157523904180.66661.12661.362.4866FF10224115457.1001214297380.0645254459310.462594405825598921241210DRYL
2020-04-21 20:00:01FORECAST2020208-784230.8136.405175.247026200490.71121.19121.552.7412FF10226115457.1321266492580.1110457759880.462594405825598921241210DRYL
2020-04-21 16:00:03FORECAST2020208-7845.630.3537.975176.768228972780.62311.17311.692.8631FF13.6234.6115457.6749838702180.9023963438810.604119354846368931241212DRYL
2020-04-21 12:00:02FORECAST2020208-7848.9631.0640.01174.3507696760.45010.73011.522.2501FF16.96235.96115456.8113047362979.645402577470.725113351956028941231210.5DRYL
2020-04-21 08:00:02FORECAST2020208-7848.9631.0640.01173.53544036990.45010.64011.341.9801FF16.96232.96115456.5188162583679.2221938165410.725113351956028941231210.5DRYL
2020-04-21 04:00:03FORECAST2020208-7848.4130.7839.595172.013969246230.43670.53671.211.7467FF16.41243.41115455.971386391578.4334480359090.70657688480038941231210.5DRYL
2020-04-21 00:00:04FORECAST2020208-7849.1729.6439.405173.423181840150.50640.61641.061.6764FF17.17228.17115456.4784975511679.1639534869330.732035651993118941231210.5DRYL
2020-04-20 20:00:02FORECAST2020208-7849.1729.6439.405174.226037279740.50640.65641.131.7864FF17.17245.17115456.7665978937979.5806343127850.732035651993118941231210.5DRYL
2020-04-20 16:00:02FORECAST2020208-7845.3630.0837.72174.050782843210.53430.74431.111.8543FF13.36245.36115456.7037589012179.4896467641930.59489786065923893123129DRYL
2020-04-20 12:00:03FORECAST2020208-7852.0432.7742.405172.817297380190.34260.57261.191.7626FF20.04253.04115456.2606898667478.8497393235920.81711114594528941231210.5DRYL
2020-04-20 08:00:02FORECAST2020208-7852.0432.7742.405173.41659169610.33560.58561.381.9656FF20.04243.04115456.4761302816479.1605347040650.81711114594528941231210.5DRYL
2020-04-20 04:00:04FORECAST2020208-7850.3529.9940.17174.209066216810.4440.5941.161.754FF18.35248.35115456.7605139956979.5718226279020.769232698286278941231210.5DRYL
2020-04-20 00:00:01FORECAST2020208-7842.7834.0538.415173.786999307741.18891.75891.232.9889TF10.78227.78115456.6091242827579.3527295656350.493477744240268921251212.5DRYL
2020-04-19 20:00:01FORECAST2020208-7842.7834.0538.415175.381512802671.18891.71891.222.9389TF10.78241.78115457.1802041754280.180955831720.493477744240268921251212.5DRYL
2020-04-19 15:59:36FORECAST2020208-7842.4730.1336.3175.928642704291.29831.89831.173.0683TF10.47242.47115457.3756280531480.465473449410.481188548809898921251212.5DRYL
2020-04-19 12:00:02FORECAST2020208-7854.5437.2745.905174.891365370450.18130.48131.311.7913FF22.54251.54115457.0049025206979.926211382830.87558143887276895122128DRYL
2020-04-19 08:00:03FORECAST2020208-7854.5437.2745.905173.404092161210.18130.48131.291.7713FF22.54247.54115456.4716401695879.1540503609460.87558143887276895122128DRYL
2020-04-19 04:00:02FORECAST2020208-7849.1133.2741.19174.420991596430.31820.66821.472.1382FF17.11252.11115456.8364675907579.6818696745890.730066830282228941231210.5DRYL
2020-04-19 00:00:02FORECAST2020208-7854.4834.5844.53176.142277852440.00250.54251.622.1625FF22.48248.48115457.4518605684880.5766127283690.874351732024758951231212DRYL
2020-04-18 20:00:03FORECAST2020208-7854.4834.5844.53176.441013484170.00210.54211.692.2321FF22.48258.48115457.5583905801880.7320661621550.874351732024758951231212DRYL
2020-04-18 16:00:02FORECAST2020208-7855.1832.643.89174.650525761150.00240.55241.612.1624FF23.18257.18115456.9186860272779.8010887447580.888177806986738951231212DRYL
2020-04-18 12:00:01FORECAST2020208-7838.1632.3835.27176.211202836570.01320.22321.511.7332FF6.16243.16115457.4764465961780.6124749241110.31714781157605892122125DRYL
2020-04-18 08:00:02FORECAST2020208-7835.4532.3833.915174.023981226420.01320.22321.581.8032FF3.45240.45115456.6941464836679.4757335738890.22808685971026891122124DRYL
2020-04-18 04:00:04FORECAST2020208-7835.4831.5133.495176.677435129050.01150.25151.651.9015FF3.48234.48115457.6426419578480.8551281867920.22898954947422891122124DRYL