Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 23, 2020

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DAY 206 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/24/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 35.98°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.46°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.22°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.201 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 213 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.40 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.47 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.17 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.64 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 173 in SWE DAY: 113 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.33 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 78.88 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -80 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 8.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-24 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	206	-80	35.97998	28.45994	32.21996	173.23292125	0.40000000000003	1.47	0.17	1.64	F	F	3.97998	212.97998	113	455.33071785635	78.878270389115	0.20125747961133	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-79	32.62	32.62	32.62	172.99661066667	0.0032	1.0732	0.17	1.2432	F	F	0.62	209.62	114	455.78617785524	78.849463957671	0.11384444114386	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-23 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	206	-79	41.33	32.88	37.105	172.69656109608	0.0812	1.1512	0.17	1.3212	F	F	9.33	218.33	114	455.67782794642	78.69399385408	0.40140924388827	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-23 08:01:13	FORECAST	2020	206	-79	36.82	33.91	35.365	172.7317046408	0.1502	1.2202	0.17	1.3902	F	F	4.82	213.82	114	455.69052278562	78.712200789417	0.22817088310132	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-23 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-79	38.8	31.57	35.185	173.14631236339	0.2438	1.3138	0.17	1.4838	F	F	6.8	215.8	114	455.8402052708	78.927050569611	0.29893305634468	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	40.89	31.52	36.205	173.13966756851	0.4167	0.4367	0.17	0.6067	F	F	8.89	216.89	113	455.29694427615	78.829961576929	0.38284851808509	90	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 19:57:50	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	40.63	30.97	35.8	173.73854677509	0.5653	1.5853	0.17	1.7553	F	F	8.63	221.63	113	455.51370046703	79.140288355285	0.37200295349025	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	39.95	32.38	36.165	173.97841331288	0.6286	1.6486	0.17	1.8186	F	F	7.95	220.95	113	455.60042446566	79.264638953209	0.34413272856829	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	39.25	32.13	35.69	174.31017797198	0.7014	1.7214	0.17	1.8914	F	F	7.25	220.25	113	455.72028727966	79.436684381162	0.31630224270407	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	34.99	33.42	34.205	174.84859453498	0.6992	1.9992	0.17	2.1692	F	F	2.99	211.99	113	455.91459624016	79.716026380577	0.17210478248805	90	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	34.92	33.36	34.14	175.15879468058	0.5994	1.8394	0.17	2.0094	F	F	2.92	214.92	113	456.02642366751	79.877038712097	0.17015056843177	90	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	40.88	31.27	36.075	175.66918623655	0.3851	1.5851	0.17	1.7551	F	F	8.88	216.88	113	456.21022863134	80.142079616461	0.3824296167185	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	35.78	32.38	34.08	175.74939797045	0.4132	1.8032	0.17	1.9732	F	F	3.78	219.78	113	456.23909325372	80.183745969924	0.19514195316295	90	1	1	2	5	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-21 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	39.45	30.49	34.97	176.9586888428	0.4731	2.0031	0.17	2.1731	F	F	7.45	223.45	113	456.67355114536	80.812352839868	0.32415697991099	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	40.87	31.94	36.405	175.46180756134	0.2744	1.6344	0.17	1.8044	F	F	8.87	224.87	113	456.13557504131	80.034372489781	0.38201085284406	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	41.34	32.45	36.895	174.74764059399	0.1677	1.3477	0.17	1.5177	F	F	9.34	222.34	113	455.87818324717	79.663636920716	0.40183384976107	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	42.48	32.8	37.64	173.5381519798	0.1005	1.1505	0.17	1.3205	F	F	10.48	225.48	113	455.4412069966	79.03642539764	0.45087738204172	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	41.52	33.08	37.3	174.86011402092	0.1149	1.0149	0.17	1.1849	F	F	9.52	208.52	113	455.91875060049	79.72200471428	0.40949610406394	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	40.91	32.91	36.91	175.63646606609	0.1451	1.1051	0.18	1.2851	F	F	8.91	225.91	113	456.19845241377	80.125084006774	0.38368673145634	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	41.15	33.39	37.27	175.72160251686	0.2057	1.1457	0.18	1.3257	F	F	9.15	230.15	113	456.2290915766	80.169307086652	0.3937866983876	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	40.15	32.21	36.18	174.95230185245	0.224	1.244	0.18	1.424	F	F	8.15	231.15	113	455.9519926249	79.769850643939	0.35225035310388	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	34.98	32.41	33.695	175.58852255778	0.2428	1.4528	0.18	1.6328	F	F	2.98	219.98	113	456.18119544296	80.10018212647	0.17182473747197	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	40.77	31.74	36.255	175.4532936382	0.1357	1.1157	0.19	1.3057	F	F	8.77	227.77	113	456.13250930075	80.029951092273	0.37783087690232	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	37.54	32.07	34.805	175.40945130774	0.4134	1.4634	0.19	1.6534	F	F	5.54	217.54	113	456.11672126207	80.007183808867	0.25276303749399	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-19 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	35.98	32.07	34.025	177.00396480267	0.3695	1.3995	0.2	1.5995	F	F	3.98	231.98	113	456.68979138563	80.835903760162	0.20125809690331	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-19 15:59:36	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	36.41	32.83	34.62	177.74514499704	0.4502	1.4402	0.19	1.6302	F	F	4.41	232.41	113	456.95538331886	81.221600865188	0.21479011506434	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	38.14	32.56	35.35	177.56358137045	0.3005	1.4205	0.2	1.6205	F	F	6.14	228.14	113	456.89036867255	81.127090155161	0.27427372331409	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	38.14	32.56	35.35	176.07630816121	0.3005	1.4005	0.2	1.6005	F	F	6.14	224.14	113	456.35667283163	80.353598156929	0.27427372331409	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-19 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	42.05	32.84	37.445	176.30543853907	0.2949	1.5549	0.22	1.7749	F	F	10.05	236.05	113	456.43902583008	80.47268261532	0.43224802117045	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	41.38	32.45	36.915	178.27438718578	0.5442	2.0742	0.1	2.1742	F	F	9.38	228.38	113	457.14472437417	81.497195593015	0.40353342724395	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	41.38	32.45	36.915	178.41207481751	0.5442	2.0642	0.18	2.2442	F	F	9.38	238.38	113	457.19394162918	81.568919720057	0.40353342724395	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	40.42	31.54	35.98	176.05023411898	0.5449	1.9849	0.18	2.1649	F	F	8.42	237.42	113	456.34729838021	80.3400487194	0.36331613625985	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	43.06	31.53	37.295	176.77274340525	0.1753	1.5053	0.19	1.6953	F	F	11.06	240.06	113	456.60683394017	80.71564269319	0.47617020296431	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	43.06	31.53	37.295	174.50009299038	0.1753	1.5053	0.26	1.7653	F	F	11.06	240.06	113	455.78885597951	79.535197752401	0.47617020296431	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	39.96	29.84	34.9	176.88964470946	0.2132	1.5632	0.31	1.8732	F	F	7.96	235.96	113	456.64878179478	80.776440768687	0.34453694697683	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	41.9	31	36.45	174.69931547115	0.1896	1.5496	0.22	1.7696	F	F	9.9	224.9	113	455.86074959402	79.63856090424	0.42578251881255	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 19:59:37	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	41.9	31	36.45	175.90664310586	0.1896	1.5496	0.2	1.7496	F	F	9.9	241.9	113	456.29566169687	80.265438112861	0.42578251881255	90	2	1	2	5	1	2	12.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 15:58:00	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	37.4	31.62	34.51	175.96711352306	0.2114	1.2314	0.22	1.4514	F	F	5.4	240.4	113	456.31740972511	80.296857439648	0.2478746393702	90	1	1	2	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-04-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	35.84	29.23	32.535	176.18096751806	0.2445	0.9545	0.23	1.1845	F	F	3.84	229.84	113	456.39429496809	80.4079884572	0.19696485163724	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	35.84	29.23	32.535	176.02750054847	0.2445	0.9545	0.3	1.2545	F	F	3.84	227.84	113	456.33912442848	80.328235475622	0.19696485163724	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	39.42	29.45	34.435	177.32176045458	0.2684	1.3284	0.28	1.6084	F	F	7.42	234.42	113	456.80373040896	81.001241658337	0.32297365959314	90	2	1	2	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-04-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	41.1	30.41	35.755	177.42292110711	0.1516	0.8616	0.2	1.0616	F	F	9.1	221.1	113	456.83998016399	81.053883759208	0.39167638951856	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	41.67	31.89	36.78	178.34954867031	0.2769	0.6869	0.21	0.8969	F	F	9.67	239.67	113	457.171593423	81.536347351876	0.41590796037507	90	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	36.28	32.06	34.17	178.62129327434	0.127	0.607	0.21	0.817	F	F	4.28	230.28	113	457.26869505806	81.677925685141	0.21064439580818	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	32.45	31.49	31.97	177.75848334608	0.2029	0.7629	0.21	0.9729	F	F	0.45	231.45	113	456.96015835795	81.228544699293	0.1102829702415	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-16 07:58:05	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	32.45	31.49	31.97	177.23803247081	0.1417	0.5717	0.17	0.7417	F	F	0.45	227.45	113	456.7737204043	80.957675488832	0.1102829702415	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	206	-80	31.92	31.57	31.745	178.6767994281	0.1133	0.7433	0.17	0.9133	F	F	-0.079999999999998	234.92	113	457.28852065366	81.706849285607	0.099692525502507	90	1	1	2	3	1	2	6	DRY	L