Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 21, 2020

[ Monday, April 20, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 22, 2020 ]

DAY 204 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/22/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 37.64°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.66°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.65°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.325 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 217 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 173 in SWE DAY: 111 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.29 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 78.76 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -82 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 2 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-22 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	204	-82	37.63994	29.66	33.64997	173.37071625	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	5.63994	216.63994	111	454.2933344899	78.761160788114	0.3249471093654	86	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-81	34.08	34.08	34.08	174.98862933333	0.0014	0.0014	0.24	0.2414	F	F	2.08	213.08	112	455.42471109098	79.69414595834	0.20396690718978	86	1	1	2	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-04-21 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	204	-81	42.29	33.9	38.095	174.58841466667	0.0286	0.0286	0.24	0.2686	F	F	10.29	221.29	112	455.27980487294	79.486579362515	0.51358123345218	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-21 08:00:01	FORECAST	2020	204	-81	37.9	31.48	34.69	174.68114083809	0.0269	0.0269	0.24	0.2669	F	F	5.9	216.9	112	455.31339146419	79.534662659823	0.33482852266584	86	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-81	40.53	31.18	35.855	174.33011508873	0.0372	0.0372	0.24	0.2772	F	F	8.53	219.53	112	455.18620378138	79.352663292012	0.44013127802349	86	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	43.32	32.94	38.13	174.45798122387	0.0227	0.0227	0.24	0.2627	F	F	11.32	207.32	111	454.68937915267	79.324191170909	0.55651252732192	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-20 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	43.77	31.62	37.695	175.49072533333	0.0176	0.0276	0.24	0.2676	F	F	11.77	223.77	111	455.0645526753	79.859608422478	0.57509227759546	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	43.61	32.81	38.21	175.48268594147	0.0213	0.0313	0.24	0.2713	F	F	11.61	223.61	111	455.06163593778	79.85543814328	0.56850302354168	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-20 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	45.79	33.1	39.445	174.55957544481	0.008	0.018	0.24	0.258	F	F	13.79	225.79	111	454.72632978842	79.376835071445	0.65590958382666	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	44.07	33.36	38.715	174.421336	0.0064	0.0164	0.24	0.2564	F	F	12.07	224.07	111	454.67604864972	79.305203852685	0.5873893665631	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	44.04	33.28	38.66	174.91605741667	0.0159	0.0359	0.24	0.2759	F	F	12.04	223.04	111	454.85590974854	79.561602425885	0.58616329971169	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-20 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	44.78	34.78	39.78	175.05960666667	0.0086	0.0286	0.24	0.2686	F	F	12.78	218.78	111	454.90805627581	79.636025401141	0.61613249900384	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-19 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	46.06	35.03	40.545	176.11564	0.0089	0.0389	0.24	0.2789	F	F	14.06	232.06	111	455.29109314931	80.18388225629	0.66627790352445	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-19 15:59:36	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	46.51	34.13	40.32	176.07190666667	0.0067	0.0267	0.24	0.2667	F	F	14.51	232.51	111	455.27525089176	80.161181482658	0.68327658366005	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-19 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	45.34	34.15	39.745	175.43022933333	0.009	0.039	0.24	0.279	F	F	13.34	231.34	111	455.04260291697	79.82822818616	0.63836925408396	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	44.31	33.77	39.04	175.54465169829	0.0052	0.0352	0.24	0.2752	F	F	12.31	226.31	111	455.08411593046	79.887582624437	0.5971662669281	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-19 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	44.54	33.72	39.13	175.01203075	0.0067	0.0567	0.24	0.2967	F	F	12.54	231.54	111	454.8907756808	79.61135842134	0.60647922034839	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-19 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	43.98	32.69	38.335	175.26858	0.0138	0.0938	0.09	0.1838	F	F	11.98	224.98	111	454.98393515399	79.744388237252	0.58370865654712	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-18 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	43.4	32.37	37.885	175.32723733333	0.0059	0.0659	0.19	0.2559	F	F	11.4	235.4	111	455.005226579	79.774809348323	0.55982590350461	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	42.78	31.85	37.315	175.230368	0.008	0.068	0.19	0.258	F	F	10.78	234.78	111	454.97006326479	79.724571614872	0.53405531654306	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-18 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	40.93	33.56	37.245	175.13169873996	0.0111	0.0811	0.19	0.2711	F	F	8.93	230.93	111	454.93423768629	79.673405860968	0.45673518360411	86	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	40.93	33.56	37.245	174.97137079952	0.0128	0.0728	0.27	0.3428	F	F	8.93	230.93	111	454.87600545824	79.590278218837	0.45673518360411	86	2	1	2	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-18 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	45.17	33.41	39.29	175.23823700118	0.0125	0.0725	0.32	0.3925	F	F	13.17	231.17	111	454.97292001448	79.728652386617	0.63166411708344	86	3	1	2	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-18 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	47.85	32.89	40.37	175.50062266667	0.0072	0.0772	0.22	0.2972	F	F	15.85	219.85	111	455.06814340285	79.864742522965	0.73154945847058	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 19:59:37	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	47.85	32.26	40.055	176.70014445416	0.0075	0.0775	0.2	0.2775	F	F	15.85	236.85	111	455.50265913544	80.487385668488	0.73154945847058	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 15:57:59	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	48.93	32.73	40.83	176.63680900146	0.031	0.101	0.22	0.321	F	F	16.93	236.93	111	455.47974954062	80.45448952364	0.76756656799002	86	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	46.69	33.45	40.07	176.07116446874	0.0417	0.1017	0.24	0.3417	F	F	14.69	229.69	111	455.27498201779	80.160796237355	0.68997177690343	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	46.69	33.45	40.07	175.89067957224	0.0417	0.0917	0.32	0.4117	F	F	14.69	227.69	111	455.20958320801	80.067122938253	0.68997177690343	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-17 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	48.93	33.67	41.3	175.95617391153	0.0171	0.0571	0.31	0.3671	F	F	16.93	232.93	111	455.23331858671	80.101112975566	0.76756656799002	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	47.74	33.2	40.47	176.62419756275	0.0141	0.0541	0.23	0.2841	F	F	15.74	218.74	111	455.47518731192	80.447939468712	0.72772987757323	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	47.28	31.19	39.235	177.90789963298	0.032	0.072	0.24	0.312	F	F	15.28	234.28	111	455.93882184535	81.11511815564	0.71147075122013	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	45.93	32.78	39.355	178.22321767479	0.173	0.223	0.23	0.453	F	F	13.93	230.93	111	456.05247414537	81.279139370735	0.66130098145008	86	3	1	2	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-04-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	47.11	33.08	40.095	176.84358645168	0.1741	0.2141	0.24	0.4541	F	F	15.11	233.11	111	455.55453111318	80.561897106369	0.7053483892525	86	4	1	2	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-16 07:58:04	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	47.51	33.43	40.47	176.63975196079	0.0586	0.0786	0.22	0.2986	F	F	15.51	228.51	111	455.48081414463	80.456018033403	0.7196573300048	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	48.89	33.14	41.015	176.60519375	0.0098	0.0298	0.22	0.2498	F	F	16.89	241.89	111	455.46831234524	80.438069548717	0.76628225513102	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 23:58:10	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	49.66	33.59	41.625	176.731592	0.0417	0.0717	0.24	0.3117	F	F	17.66	248.66	111	455.51403292032	80.503720216349	0.79030545516101	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	49.66	33.21	41.435	177.76068036276	0.0366	0.0566	0.24	0.2966	F	F	17.66	247.66	111	455.88572738952	81.038557068432	0.79030545516101	86	4	1	2	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	51.88	34.39	43.135	177.22987186063	0.0356	0.0456	0.21	0.2556	F	F	19.88	258.88	111	455.69412700194	80.762611736195	0.8509631516034	86	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	38.35	32.88	35.615	178.05627920713	0.5382	0.7182	0.2	0.9182	F	F	6.35	229.35	111	455.99231467789	81.192294898592	0.35219664548877	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	38.35	32.88	35.615	178.04081409081	0.5382	0.7182	0.22	0.9382	F	F	6.35	229.35	111	455.9867402365	81.18425044632	0.35219664548877	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	38.04	34.82	36.43	178.19443737138	0.6147	0.7947	0.18	0.9747	F	F	6.04	232.04	111	456.04210443268	81.26416621704	0.34019632390118	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	41.49	33.21	37.35	178.53220655858	0.7407	0.8807	0.25	1.1307	F	F	9.49	229.49	111	456.16375691458	81.439922074015	0.48010162654044	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-14 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	41.49	33.21	37.35	179.50020528321	0.6901	0.8001	0.26	1.0601	F	F	9.49	247.49	111	456.51181812373	81.943965067421	0.48010162654044	86	2	1	2	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-04-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	41.09	33.65	37.37	179.39609687162	0.2639	0.3339	0.24	0.5739	F	F	9.09	246.09	111	456.47442514439	81.889730192619	0.4633996191749	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	38.37	36.37	37.37	178.99177797648	0.2174	0.2774	0.23	0.5074	F	F	6.37	234.37	111	456.32911071867	81.679158869963	0.35297609107015	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	37.48	35.49	36.485	179.27881049894	0.1721	0.2821	0.24	0.5221	F	F	5.48	230.48	111	456.43228714468	81.828637512609	0.31892992219881	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-04-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	204	-82	38.83	36.35	37.59	178.62236797631	0.0916	0.1816	0.24	0.4216	F	F	6.83	255.83	111	456.19621221532	81.486847687725	0.37106762467226	86	2	1	2	2	1	2	5	DRY	L