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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, April 17, 2020

[ Thursday, April 16, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, April 18, 2020 ]

DAY 200 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/18/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 52.78°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.03°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.867
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 21
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 168

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.10 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 178 in
SWE DAY: 107
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.97 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 81.02 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -86

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-18 04:00:04OBSERVATION2020200-8652.7799235.2799644.02994178.46063090909001.11.1FF20.77992167.77992107453.96674437748 81.0151916133510.8667009853790590 5111123.5DRYL
2020-04-18 00:00:03FORECAST2020200-8536.8336.8336.83178.9735960.0010.0011.11.101FF4.83151.83108454.6993550763581.3791786768960.30059549642286902111122DRYL
2020-04-17 12:00:03FORECAST2020200-8552.5735.6344.1179.0615920.00480.00481.11.1048FF20.57167.57108454.7313582529481.4249209410940.86201383209909905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-17 08:00:02FORECAST2020200-8552.536.5244.51178.876490666670.00660.00661.11.1066FF20.5167.5108454.6640306324481.3287062318920.86042622688266905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-17 04:00:04FORECAST2020200-8551.735.0143.355179.125151833330.00410.00411.11.1041FF19.7166.7108454.7544698158381.4579634526470.84140315562249904111123DRYL
2020-04-17 00:00:03FORECAST2020200-8653.0935.644.345179.608077333330.00370.00371.11.1037FF21.09154.09107454.3856291349581.6113292168260.87342270705323905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-16 20:00:01FORECAST2020200-8652.8835.2244.05180.711998666670.0030.0131.11.113FF20.88167.88107454.7874740751882.1855534086910.86889670487043905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-16 16:00:02FORECAST2020200-8652.5535.9144.23180.665040.00150.01151.11.1115FF20.55167.55107454.7704033087182.1611131045840.86156148907741905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-16 12:00:02FORECAST2020200-8653.736.2344.965179.723625333330.00140.01141.11.1114FF21.7168.7107454.4277432628381.671401471240.88595019146737905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-16 07:58:04FORECAST2020200-8654.0636.5845.32179.775516546580.00130.01131.11.1113FF22.06165.06107454.4466521883281.698381640020.8929165922368905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-16 04:00:04FORECAST2020200-8653.7335.9244.825180.107632416670.00130.01131.11.1113FF21.73169.73107454.567614719681.8710968604390.88654273153163905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-15 23:58:10FORECAST2020200-8653.5635.8844.72180.5414760.00180.07181.11.1718FF21.56173.56107454.7254746682682.0968083714080.88315595173503905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-15 20:00:02FORECAST2020200-8653.736.4645.08181.639608362760.00130.07131.11.1713FF21.7173.7107455.1242686730582.6685939181590.88595019146737905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-15 16:00:03FORECAST2020200-8653.3135.9144.61181.663557193960.00090.06091.11.1609FF21.31173.31107455.132953461182.6810713219370.87804662207063905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-15 12:00:02FORECAST2020200-8653.1235.8644.49181.053900896040.00110.06111.11.1611FF21.12173.12107454.9117035737982.3635384952960.87406031203053905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-15 08:00:03FORECAST2020200-8652.9835.2244.1181.005789582660.00090.08091.11.1809FF20.98172.98107454.8942289450582.3384890867930.87106565962097905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-15 04:00:02FORECAST2020200-8653.1636.0144.585181.371172038050.00190.07191.11.1719FF21.16173.16107455.0268869488782.5287597947410.87490697353208905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2020200-8652.6136.0144.31181.867526328360.00150.09151.11.1915FF20.61161.61107455.2068992845582.7873527404830.8629154996963905112127DRYL
2020-04-14 20:00:01FORECAST2020200-8653.2936.4944.89182.933768805560.00210.08211.111.1921FF21.29175.29107455.5928258854583.3433126800020.87763122018653905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-14 16:00:02FORECAST2020200-8653.135.9144.505182.847695538280.00230.09231.111.2023FF21.1175.1107455.5617104219283.2984089261280.87363549064425905112127DRYL
2020-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2020200-8653.9833.6543.815182.1804846431500.11.111.21FF21.98174.98107455.3202829739682.9504698200520.89139557740967905112127DRYL
2020-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2020200-8647.1333.5540.34182.31319316560.00020.09021.111.2002FF15.13169.13107455.3683355954183.0196553289060.70267058349578904112126DRYL
2020-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2020200-8657.7634.3146.035182.1055093096400.121.111.23FF25.76182.76107455.2931278853182.9113869387350.94759908586869905112127DRYL
2020-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2020200-8657.9934.4446.215183.0187842235900.091.121.21FF25.99167.99107455.6235522597183.3876685982050.95008121462641905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-13 20:00:58FORECAST2020200-8657.2632.4744.865183.1319359013600.071.121.19FF25.26185.26107455.664437383883.4467105394970.94186663352055905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2020200-8657.6134.0445.825182.994163682950.00050.06051.111.1705FF25.61186.61107455.6146545569183.374822672340.94592837108274905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020200-8658.234.846.5182.4206686008300.041.111.15FF26.2182.2107455.4072396627883.0756931449410.95226501931807905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2020200-8658.2134.8146.51182.1855256618900.031.121.15FF26.21184.21107455.3221085797282.9530976970770.95236707712226905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2020200-8659.435.2647.33182.165795722500.021.121.14FF27.4195.4107455.3149632456682.9428125840060.96332105358855905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-12 23:59:39FORECAST2020200-8654.6133.8544.23186.493761664870.00140.02141.131.1514FF22.61186.61107456.873821342285.204117548310.90296039202096905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020200-8654.6333.8644.245186.313253415190.00140.02141.131.1514FF22.63191.63107456.8091472898985.1095984213980.90331216982615905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-12 16:00:56FORECAST2020200-8655.8835.5845.73185.740377007540.00140.01141.121.1314FF23.88196.88107456.6036956922384.809742580910.9234879779156905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2020200-8657.5133.8745.69185.189459711410.00320.01321.121.1332FF25.51200.51107456.405837141984.5215503894440.94479141027196905121124DRYL
2020-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020200-8657.5333.8945.71185.325315726290.00320.02321.121.1432FF25.53194.53107456.4546547146484.5926029997260.94502029545782905111123.5DRYL
2020-04-12 03:59:40FORECAST2020200-8659.3935.2147.3185.452480197560.00180.01181.131.1418FF27.39200.39107456.5003338663784.6591191265330.96323839834671905121124DRYL
2020-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2020200-8654.0932.3443.215185.937235927330.01130.22131.141.3613FF22.09188.09107456.6743292437284.9127624985450.89348300613829905112127DRYL
2020-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020200-8654.1132.3543.23185.751703528350.01130.25131.151.4013FF22.11206.11107456.6077606384184.8156693828520.89385941568838905122128DRYL
2020-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2020200-8654.6332.7843.705185.71946626130.00560.29561.161.4556FF22.63202.63107456.5961907805784.7988008487090.90331216982615905122128DRYL
2020-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2020200-8657.4533.4745.46185.125437424910.00350.33351.191.5235FF25.45203.45107456.3828259701884.4880702909460.94410025201737905122128DRYL
2020-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2020200-8657.734.2845.99184.794962678510.00350.33351.21.5335FF25.7200.7107456.2639857549984.315286219140.94693576881914905122128DRYL
2020-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020200-8657.5736.2146.89184.481582550710.00590.32591.181.5059FF25.57213.57107456.1512006561884.1514953794580.94547582333637905122128DRYL
2020-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020200-865937.4348.215185.510186705420.00340.00341.141.1434FF27214107456.5210579371384.6893066928710.95989455369996905121124DRYL
2020-04-10 20:00:52FORECAST2020200-8659.0239.7849.4186.66898780130.00190.00191.151.1519FF27.02230.02107456.936574516285.2958878543320.96007182826024905121124DRYL
2020-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2020200-8659.8540.3350.09186.840369343070.00150.00151.151.1515FF27.85230.85107456.9979238264385.3856608767460.96688649515786905121124DRYL
2020-04-10 13:00:02FORECAST2020200-8656.3740.3348.35187.268743539680.00150.00151.161.1615FF24.37229.37107457.1511518366385.6101218121650.93046132649691905121124DRYL
2020-04-10 09:00:02FORECAST2020200-864541.8843.44185.64794104525001.151.15FF13222107456.5705172134184.7613764626360.62322705218358903121123DRYL
2020-04-10 04:58:25FORECAST2020200-8643.0641.0642.06185.94658217374001.141.14FF11.06223.06107456.6776818259184.9176540905560.5458967975506903121123DRYL
2020-04-10 01:00:02FORECAST2020200-8641.0641.0641.06193.40915953619001.131.13FF9.06231.06107459.3293329666788.8385002394050.46433884284257902121122.5DRYL