Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, April 16, 2020

[ Wednesday, April 15, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, April 17, 2020 ]

DAY 199 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/17/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.15°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.46°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.80°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.831 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 18 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 143 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.86 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.86 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 180 in SWE DAY: 106 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.08 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 81.86 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -87 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-17 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	199	-87	50.14994	31.46	40.80497	180.27194916667	0	0	1.86	1.86	F	F	18.14994	143.14994	106	454.08195256538	81.858238670367	0.83080376281696	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-17 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-86	36	36	36	180.97813333333	0	0	1.86	1.86	F	F	4	129	107	454.88418288392	82.324090301191	0.28388360795937	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-04-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-86	50.1	36.96	43.53	181.196236	0.006	0.006	1.86	1.866	F	F	18.1	143.1	107	454.96338895554	82.437653596548	0.82943835556369	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-16 07:58:04	FORECAST	2020	199	-86	45.58	32.28	38.93	181.25736587992	0.0082	0.0082	1.86	1.8682	F	F	13.58	138.58	107	454.98558098521	82.469487922722	0.67851524230386	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-16 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	199	-86	50.94	32.79	41.865	181.57149641667	0.011	0.011	1.86	1.871	F	F	18.94	143.94	107	455.09956571465	82.633109165384	0.85146952641289	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 23:58:09	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	51.93	33.19	42.56	181.97997466667	0.0091	0.0691	1.86	1.9291	F	F	19.93	147.93	106	454.70453910553	82.747120507244	0.87488934111796	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	51.88	30.74	41.31	183.06744702942	0.0059	0.0659	1.86	1.9259	F	F	19.88	147.88	106	455.09952495317	83.313908177481	0.87377198857978	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	52	29.7	40.85	183.0645545273	0.0048	0.0648	1.86	1.9248	F	F	20	148	106	455.0984758006	83.312399738487	0.87644203640536	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	51.9	31.49	41.695	182.4374595627	0.002	0.062	1.86	1.922	F	F	19.9	147.9	106	454.8708372584	82.985479978582	0.87421975886417	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	52.03	31.45	41.74	182.36627891599	0.0017	0.0817	1.86	1.9417	F	F	20.03	148.03	106	454.84497541349	82.948385649792	0.87710334129718	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	51.95	31.37	41.66	182.74685870471	0.0017	0.0717	1.86	1.9317	F	F	19.95	147.95	106	454.98319597733	83.146749828287	0.87533434812258	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	51.81	31.58	41.695	183.21522366169	0.0008	0.0908	1.86	1.9508	F	F	19.81	136.81	106	455.15311543103	83.390979844011	0.87219607523037	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	51.85	31.45	41.65	184.32241147223	0.0005	0.0905	1.86	1.9505	F	F	19.85	149.85	106	455.55399241316	83.968810437396	0.87309825837775	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	52.32	31.47	41.895	184.22414753828	0.0005	0.1005	1.86	1.9605	F	F	20.32	150.32	106	455.51845978318	83.917499941509	0.88336855775182	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	51.97	31.18	41.575	183.53244597648	0.0006	0.1106	1.86	1.9706	F	F	19.97	148.97	106	455.26808664885	83.556465517698	0.87577825096735	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	51.61	30.95	41.28	183.4743131656	0.0009	0.1009	1.86	1.9609	F	F	19.61	149.61	106	455.24702444503	83.526135130736	0.86761854918448	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	53.15	31.81	42.48	183.55597997631	0.001	0.131	1.86	1.991	F	F	21.15	153.15	106	455.27661241057	83.568744751317	0.900042583156	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-14 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	53.11	31.64	42.375	184.39693089026	0.0005	0.1105	1.86	1.9705	F	F	21.11	138.11	106	455.58093301921	84.007725820862	0.89928108741195	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-13 20:00:58	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	53.05	31.54	42.295	184.38391190136	0.0027	0.0927	1.86	1.9527	F	F	21.05	156.05	106	455.57622670149	84.00092684848	0.89813095039908	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	52.75	31.57	42.16	184.36788234962	0.0014	0.0714	1.86	1.9314	F	F	20.75	156.75	106	455.57043186236	83.992555783564	0.89223721381098	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-13 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	47.23	32.01	39.62	183.87048326749	0.0016	0.0516	1.86	1.9116	F	F	15.23	152.23	106	455.39049994863	83.73287130098	0.73950095000781	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-13 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	47.25	31.97	39.61	183.63736299523	0.0022	0.0422	1.87	1.9122	F	F	15.25	154.25	106	455.30609145312	83.611209990113	0.74020205093703	89	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-04-13 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	56.51	32.66	44.585	183.71122238917	0.002	0.032	1.87	1.902	F	F	24.51	163.51	106	455.33283996914	83.64975262466	0.9500866878664	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 23:59:39	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	53.39	30.56	41.975	187.70030966487	0.0002	0.0302	1.88	1.9102	F	F	21.39	160.39	106	456.77007705153	85.735884908217	0.90452369043301	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	53.4	30.19	41.795	187.52187874852	0	0.03	1.88	1.91	F	F	21.4	165.4	106	456.70610042371	85.642385987366	0.90470715189671	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 16:00:55	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	56.07	33.92	44.995	187.0742436742	0.0004	0.0204	1.87	1.8904	F	F	24.07	169.07	106	456.54547263668	85.407898996387	0.94497880540594	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	57.08	34.61	45.845	186.72619437808	0.0016	0.0216	1.87	1.8916	F	F	25.08	171.08	106	456.42045359044	85.22565433526	0.95613504699643	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	57.09	34.62	45.855	186.86358105963	0.0016	0.0316	1.87	1.9016	F	F	25.09	165.09	106	456.46981598682	85.297584460927	0.95623564804727	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 03:59:40	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	55.77	33.5	44.635	187.06804419756	0.0017	0.0117	1.89	1.9017	F	F	23.77	168.77	106	456.54324675596	85.404652262241	0.94126623786323	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-12 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	54.88	33.22	44.05	187.22479992733	0.0079	0.2279	1.88	2.1079	F	F	22.88	161.88	106	456.5995180945	85.48675342216	0.92909410514232	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	54.89	34.44	44.665	187.04079819502	0.0077	0.2577	1.89	2.1477	F	F	22.89	179.89	106	456.53346384505	85.390383480315	0.92924085168887	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	54.44	33.86	44.15	187.06355559463	0.0139	0.3239	1.89	2.2139	F	F	22.44	176.44	106	456.54163513116	85.402301544621	0.92240396546045	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	55.95	34.45	45.2	186.70273475824	0.0052	0.3952	1.88	2.2752	F	F	23.95	173.95	106	456.41202293608	85.213372858708	0.94351658582871	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	56.26	35.63	45.945	186.44928534517	0.0052	0.3952	1.89	2.2852	F	F	24.26	171.26	106	456.32090909778	85.080707389342	0.9472328328216	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	55.96	34.72	45.34	186.18171588404	0.0021	0.3921	1.87	2.2621	F	F	23.96	183.96	106	456.22465550095	84.940689189773	0.94363959145789	89	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-04-11 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	59.51	37.92	48.715	187.33960670542	0	0	1.9	1.9	F	F	27.51	182.51	106	456.64071661008	85.546892255411	0.97564918552087	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-10 20:00:52	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	59.53	37.92	48.725	188.33468113463	0	0	1.91	1.91	F	F	27.53	198.53	106	456.99729708563	86.068440226011	0.97577308252028	89	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-04-10 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	59.14	37.79	48.465	188.1701906764	0	0	1.91	1.91	F	F	27.14	199.14	106	456.93841482439	85.982188644879	0.97325968232574	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-10 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	59.16	37.79	48.475	188.15385153968	0	0	1.92	1.92	F	F	27.16	201.16	106	456.93256459884	85.973621923177	0.97339366105527	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-10 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	61.85	41.26	51.555	186.20565037859	0.0012	0.0012	1.91	1.9112	F	F	29.85	204.85	106	456.23326819566	84.953212428721	0.98697424755127	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-10 04:58:25	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	61.53	40.66	51.095	186.22609284041	0.0012	0.0012	1.9	1.9012	F	F	29.53	207.53	106	456.24062388725	84.963908781593	0.98576175184164	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-10 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	61.56	40.67	51.115	193.45868753619	0.0012	0.0012	1.89	1.8912	F	F	29.56	217.56	106	458.81926029666	88.76257191332	0.98587940508528	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-09 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	61.81	38.81	50.31	194.50743107682	0	0	1.89	1.89	F	F	29.81	220.81	106	459.18925175424	89.315721736803	0.98682773120421	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-09 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	60.97	38.51	49.74	194.79430849882	0	0	1.89	1.89	F	F	28.97	222.97	106	459.29028911231	89.467134267856	0.98340580361405	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-09 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	56.54	38.51	47.525	195.40485492516	0	0	1.89	1.89	F	F	24.54	218.54	106	459.50507678984	89.789522867492	0.95042074436987	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-09 12:52:25	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	56.54	38.51	47.525	194.27227092516	0	0	1.89	1.89	F	F	24.54	218.54	106	459.10637413391	89.191637899209	0.95042074436987	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-09 12:50:08	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	56.54	38.51	47.525	194.27227092516	0	0	1.89	1.89	F	F	24.54	218.54	106	459.10637413391	89.191637899209	0.95042074436987	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-09 12:47:43	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	56.54	38.51	47.525	194.27227092516	0	0	1.89	1.89	F	F	24.54	218.54	106	459.10637413391	89.191637899209	0.95042074436987	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-09 12:46:41	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	56.54	38.51	47.525	194.27227092516	0	0	1.89	1.89	F	F	24.54	218.54	106	459.10637413391	89.191637899209	0.95042074436987	89	5	1	2	1	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-04-09 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	41.76	38.73	40.245	195.1491411784	0.0019	0.0019	1.89	1.8919	F	F	9.76	185.76	106	459.41515830115	89.654473586809	0.52029410735685	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	41.43	39.83	40.63	194.94253636259	0.0016	0.0016	1.89	1.8916	F	F	9.43	190.43	106	459.3424656757	89.545385317867	0.50608104803959	89	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-04-09 00:58:29	FORECAST	2020	199	-87	39.83	39.83	39.83	194.90623689035	0.0003	0.0003	1.91	1.9103	F	F	7.83	193.83	106	459.3296899907	89.526221368098	0.43738742722005	89	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L