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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, April 14, 2020

[ Monday, April 13, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, April 15, 2020 ]

DAY 197 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/15/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.59°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.94°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.725
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 118

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 184 in
SWE DAY: 104
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.50 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 83.82 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -89

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-15 04:00:02OBSERVATION2020197-8946.5900827.2899436.94001184.42056291667003.033.03FF14.59008117.59008104454.50379516854 83.8198457527440.7245612672255888 4111123DRYL
2020-04-15 00:00:03FORECAST2020197-8834.7534.7534.75184.984966666670.00250.00253.033.0325FF2.75105.75105455.2523110510384.2148335846980.28263726617035882111122DRYL
2020-04-14 12:00:02FORECAST2020197-8849.3735.5542.46185.25380.00580.00583.033.0358FF17.37120.37105455.3496828751584.3552590814170.80827560729135884111123DRYL
2020-04-14 08:00:03FORECAST2020197-8848.7934.1241.455185.192190666670.01220.01223.033.0422FF16.79119.79105455.3273737574484.323073816640.79222087138647884111123DRYL
2020-04-14 04:00:04FORECAST2020197-8849.5231.4540.485185.31585984910.00870.00873.033.0387FF17.52120.52105455.3721515981884.3876818247540.81230095732461884111123DRYL
2020-04-14 00:00:02FORECAST2020197-8946.3633.4539.905186.161686666670.01690.01693.033.0469FF14.36106.36104455.1365581208684.728989323440.71690765960731884111123DRYL
2020-04-13 20:00:58FORECAST2020197-8950.4931.8341.16186.101080626010.01830.01833.033.0483FF18.49123.49104455.1145795187384.6973150570870.83705722699651884111123DRYL
2020-04-13 16:00:03FORECAST2020197-8950.7329.7740.25186.10194889290.01230.01233.033.0423FF18.73123.73104455.1148944170584.6977688212010.84283981805645884111123DRYL
2020-04-13 12:00:02FORECAST2020197-8950.7830.7840.78185.590590273690.01380.01383.033.0438FF18.78123.78104454.9293173628184.4306005421730.84402737186909884111123DRYL
2020-04-13 08:00:02FORECAST2020197-8950.9633.4642.21185.4738160.01260.02263.033.0526FF18.96124.96104454.8869050172784.3696101219820.84825360093495884111123DRYL
2020-04-13 04:00:03FORECAST2020197-8951.1433.2842.21185.84759572250.01050.02053.033.0505FF19.14125.14104455.0226172876184.5648594222620.85240323474242885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-12 23:59:39FORECAST2020197-8950.7532.241.475189.54776239110.01230.03233.033.0623FF18.75129.75104456.3591489326986.5018555268980.84331554933577884111123DRYL
2020-04-12 20:00:03FORECAST2020197-8950.6632.0741.365189.513877415190.0130.0333.033.063FF18.66129.66104456.3469662932886.4840830288980.84116730586008884111123DRYL
2020-04-12 16:00:55FORECAST2020197-8950.5532.9241.735189.44519167420.0130.0233.033.053FF18.55129.55104456.3222685444186.4480596296030.83851564975458884111123DRYL
2020-04-12 12:00:03FORECAST2020197-8950.6832.5841.63189.127755711410.010.023.033.05FF18.68129.68104456.2080701789786.2816084503840.84164634947317884111123DRYL
2020-04-12 08:00:03FORECAST2020197-8950.132.3841.24189.166469059630.01060.02063.033.0506FF18.1129.1104456.2220023312886.3019052883210.82737006624398884111123DRYL
2020-04-12 03:59:40FORECAST2020197-8950.7431.9641.35189.301341530890.00170.03173.033.0617FF18.74128.74104456.2705295113286.3726233375040.84307780199068884111123DRYL
2020-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2020197-8949.983240.99189.251301489950.02340.04343.033.0734FF17.98128.98104456.2525270202486.3463845466580.82431718145283884111123DRYL
2020-04-11 20:00:03FORECAST2020197-8950.8631.9441.4189.173672861690.02250.03253.053.0825FF18.86144.86104456.22459468386.3056822260180.84591515644923884111123DRYL
2020-04-11 16:00:02FORECAST2020197-8949.531.9340.715189.16346626130.02760.03763.053.0876FF17.5143.5104456.220921733886.300330936090.81176727399387884111123DRYL
2020-04-11 12:00:02FORECAST2020197-8945.3931.3538.37189.039188091580.07010.07013.053.1201FF13.39139.39104456.1761913282386.2351768353970.68356884669074883111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2020197-8945.2432.6438.94188.966357345170.06970.07973.053.1297FF13.24135.24104456.1499714021486.1969984989680.67826782223588883111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020197-8952.431.7342.065188.518169217370.06670.06673.043.1067FF20.4147.4104455.988511589885.9621193890640.87931986222788885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020197-8952.4331.3641.895190.520605372080.00310.00313.073.0731FF20.43136.43104456.7084676076787.0123737271710.87991571614174885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-10 20:00:52FORECAST2020197-8952.4630.7741.615191.520326467960.00240.00243.083.0824FF20.46152.46104457.0665392609787.5375328168440.8805095000554885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2020197-8952.8332.8742.85191.39328267640.00240.00243.083.0824FF20.83152.83104457.0210862049787.4707659411040.8876634417261885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-10 13:00:02FORECAST2020197-8952.8532.8742.86191.380496873020.00240.00243.093.0924FF20.85154.85104457.0165109554487.4640469458250.88804125748652885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-10 09:00:02FORECAST2020197-8955.8533.2644.555190.071677045250.00020.00023.083.0802FF23.85152.85104456.5473781906486.7767258233080.93493860258407885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-10 04:58:25FORECAST2020197-8955.6433.6544.645190.002247507070.00020.00023.073.0702FF23.64156.64104456.5224483124886.7402912168030.93225303378081885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-10 01:00:02FORECAST2020197-8955.6733.6544.66197.239598202860.00020.00023.063.0602FF23.67166.67104459.0976314264790.5522323584420.93264182874788885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 21:00:03FORECAST2020197-8957.2633.9245.59198.225748410150.00110.00113.063.0611FF25.26169.26104459.4448715184391.0738035099460.95089215963235885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 17:00:03FORECAST2020197-8957.5134.1345.82198.093660498820.00110.00113.063.0611FF25.51171.51104459.3984115733491.0039129759070.95336457732593885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 13:00:02FORECAST2020197-8957.5434.1245.83198.103201591820.00110.00113.063.0611FF25.54170.54104459.4017680322891.0089610641380.95365445586777885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 12:52:25FORECAST2020197-8957.5434.1245.83196.970617591820.00110.00113.063.0611FF25.54170.54104459.002767753690.4100586407840.95365445586777885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 12:50:08FORECAST2020197-8957.5434.1245.83196.970617591820.00110.00113.063.0611FF25.54170.54104459.002767753690.4100586407840.95365445586777885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 12:47:43FORECAST2020197-8957.5434.1245.83196.970617591820.00110.00113.063.0611FF25.54170.54104459.002767753690.4100586407840.95365445586777885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 12:46:41FORECAST2020197-8957.5434.1245.83196.970617591820.00110.00113.063.0611FF25.54170.54104459.002767753690.4100586407840.95365445586777885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 09:00:02FORECAST2020197-8956.0534.0145.03197.152018511730.00230.00233.063.0623FF24.05157.05104459.0667510697390.5059366050220.93741901498579885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 05:00:02FORECAST2020197-8955.6933.6144.65196.893097695920.00230.00233.063.0623FF23.69159.69104458.975416121590.3690914464360.93290006897008885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-09 00:58:29FORECAST2020197-8955.7233.6144.665196.663934223680.00230.00233.083.0823FF23.72164.72104458.8945280246590.2480032750460.93328599777156885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-08 21:00:03FORECAST2020197-8944.4732.738.585198.770046623990.19620.20623.073.2762FF12.47150.47104459.6361558939591.3619001371130.65050165045831883112125DRYL
2020-04-08 17:00:03FORECAST2020197-8955.4235.1445.28197.906971016310.00020.01023.063.0702FF23.42160.42104459.3327197530690.905147255010.92934888632067885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-08 13:00:02FORECAST2020197-8945.5129.337.405199.292256878450.02940.02943.083.1094FF13.51149.51104459.8194294237191.6384518464140.68778276691345883111122.5DRYL
2020-04-08 09:00:04FORECAST2020197-8952.0532.5542.3197.44946773720.00090.00093.093.0909FF20.05154.05104459.1716028954790.6631885917490.87221465619344885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-08 05:00:03FORECAST2020197-8949.5729.9539.76197.705260627120.00090.00093.093.0909FF17.57152.57104459.2617073947590.7984555565370.81363108008997884111123DRYL
2020-04-08 01:00:04FORECAST2020197-8953.1731.4442.305197.100779157740.00140.00143.053.0514FF21.17159.17104459.0486810298690.478852702320.89396350402885885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-07 21:00:03FORECAST2020197-8953.1632.6642.91197.024116913340.00140.00143.073.0714FF21.16165.16104459.0216409767790.4383334575620.89378191716418885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-07 17:00:03FORECAST2020197-8952.0731.8741.97197.204987117010.00120.00123.073.0712FF20.07164.07104459.0854284743290.5339360078830.87262831496769885111123.5DRYL
2020-04-07 13:00:02FORECAST2020197-8945.1831.8638.52197.667943556760.00120.00123.063.0612FF13.18157.18104459.2485658916690.7787196011960.67613713745148883111122.5DRYL
2020-04-07 08:59:44FORECAST2020197-8935.743334.37197.537084749850.00180.03183.023.0518FF3.74139.74104459.2024730783290.7095178418140.31665673081321882111122DRYL
2020-04-07 04:58:39FORECAST2020197-8934.733333.865197.152895549030.00190.09193.023.1119FF2.73142.73104459.0670603447190.5064001981410.2819684571586882112124DRYL
2020-04-07 01:00:03FORECAST2020197-8933.0333.0333.03205.442788790770.00030.09033.043.1303FF1.03150.03104461.9598101506794.9063117066110.22806676752047881112123DRYL