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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, April 11, 2020

[ Friday, April 10, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, April 12, 2020 ]

DAY 194 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/12/2020 12:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.66°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.66°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.063
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -4
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 82

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.70 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.70 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 188 in
SWE DAY: 101
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.81 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 85.69 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -91

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 1.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-12 00:00:03FORECAST2020194-9127.6627.6627.66191.006807274140.00160.00163.73.7016FF-4.3481.66102455.8069106617187.0622227389840.063480916159041911111121.5DRYL
2020-04-11 12:00:01FORECAST2020194-9141.8427.2434.54190.797423425060.01640.01643.73.7164FF9.8495.84102455.7313204878986.952361723190.49366790299579912111122DRYL
2020-04-11 08:00:02FORECAST2020194-9137.9929.3633.675190.886503950370.01810.01813.73.7181FF5.9991.99102455.7634845790286.9990981995270.33517965021521912111122DRYL
2020-04-11 04:00:04FORECAST2020194-9143.4629.1336.295190.597208987850.01370.01373.73.7137FF11.4697.46102455.6590029768386.847334217570.56220174840714913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-11 00:00:02FORECAST2020194-9244.7929.5137.15192.59177358290.04040.04043.73.7404TF12.7984.79101455.8389937083387.7908402665290.61719208136565913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 20:00:52FORECAST2020194-9245.1329.4937.31193.612990205860.02550.04553.73.7455TF13.13101.13101456.2070068643288.3276027518650.63092456526621913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 16:00:02FORECAST2020194-9244.8729.9337.4193.613055209950.03340.05343.73.7534TF12.87100.87101456.207030259388.3276369367590.62043725714524913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 13:00:01FORECAST2020194-9245.6130.337.955193.601825068290.03840.05843.73.7584TF13.61101.61101456.2029884720688.32173116980.65002696595239913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 09:00:02FORECAST2020194-9246.2630.7938.525192.498326253240.0280.0483.73.748TF14.26102.26101455.8052706432187.7417516962220.67529386467401913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 04:58:25FORECAST2020194-9246.4430.8238.63192.661727722680.020.043.73.74TF14.4497.44101455.8642333648887.8275908070520.68215668103301913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-10 01:00:02FORECAST2020194-9246.3330.7538.54199.973114224890.01040.03043.73.7304TF14.33107.33101458.4776267971491.6831988330610.67796997549998913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 21:00:03FORECAST2020194-9246.8231.5139.165201.099923767640.00950.02953.73.7295TF14.82107.82101458.8760965456792.2799480341240.6964390634148913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 17:00:03FORECAST2020194-9246.9330.1938.56201.088936170560.00510.02513.73.7251TF14.93107.93101458.872216543492.274125862940.70051937463952914111123DRYL
2020-04-09 13:00:02FORECAST2020194-9246.3731.1538.76201.143782911970.01310.03313.73.7331TF14.37106.37101458.8915832554292.3031890024610.67949506316151913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 12:52:25FORECAST2020194-9246.3731.1538.76200.011198911970.01310.03313.73.7331TF14.37106.37101458.4911131827791.7033572381710.67949506316151913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 12:50:08FORECAST2020194-9246.3731.1538.76200.011198911970.01310.03313.73.7331TF14.37106.37101458.4911131827791.7033572381710.67949506316151913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 12:47:43FORECAST2020194-9246.3731.1538.76200.011198911970.01310.03313.73.7331TF14.37106.37101458.4911131827791.7033572381710.67949506316151913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 12:46:41FORECAST2020194-9246.3731.1538.76200.011198911970.01310.03313.73.7331TF14.37106.37101458.4911131827791.7033572381710.67949506316151913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 09:00:02FORECAST2020194-9244.3827.8436.11199.81313717840.02060.03063.73.7306TF12.38103.38101458.4209621614491.5985305978190.60043581748484913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 05:00:02FORECAST2020194-9243.3627.6335.495199.699759085380.02120.03123.73.7312TF11.3699.36101458.3807891541991.5385331634570.55800385577543913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-09 00:58:29FORECAST2020194-9242.9126.4634.685199.524595880180.02850.04853.73.7485TF10.91103.91101458.3187012176291.4458536447770.53903936336085913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-08 21:00:03FORECAST2020194-9242.9626.3134.635200.639674726740.01770.03773.73.7377TF10.96102.96101458.7134780407392.0361230268620.54115172452745913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-08 17:00:03FORECAST2020194-9242.5126.8734.69200.712625037740.02130.03133.73.7313TF10.51100.51101458.7392660496492.0747622967080.52210579157105913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-08 13:00:02FORECAST2020194-9243.0929.0536.07200.860553023710.02840.04843.73.7484TF11.09102.09101458.7915440760692.1531232657180.54663828122846913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-08 09:00:03FORECAST2020194-9240.6929.2434.965199.80826949960.04340.06343.73.7634TF8.6997.69101458.4192376453391.5959545792410.44501172177241912111122DRYL
2020-04-08 05:00:03FORECAST2020194-9246.3628.3637.36199.794087649360.03650.05653.73.7565TF14.36100.36101458.4142131928291.588449490360.67911407375145913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-08 01:00:04FORECAST2020194-9246.3929.2437.815199.452795342380.01450.02453.73.7245TF14.39101.39101458.2932429849591.4078683998720.68025647494639913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-07 21:00:03FORECAST2020194-9246.7929.0937.94199.399779631160.02790.03793.73.7379TF14.79105.79101458.2744422862891.3798228024770.69532196165874913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-07 17:00:03FORECAST2020194-9246.5129.2137.86199.212493130790.01610.04613.693.7361TF14.51105.51101458.2080055308591.2807591542890.68480892808003913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-07 13:00:02FORECAST2020194-9246.5329.2237.875199.272474035890.01610.03613.693.7261TF14.53105.53101458.2292861944891.3124835356730.68556497587049913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-07 08:59:44FORECAST2020194-9246.631.338.95199.071398393920.0040.0043.693.694FF14.6101.6101458.1579336537791.2061405377240.68820500826393913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-07 04:58:39FORECAST2020194-9247.7331.8539.79198.480993028490.00250.00253.693.6925FF15.73105.73101457.948215190.8940164886730.72941737183088914111123DRYL
2020-04-07 01:00:03FORECAST2020194-9247.7731.8639.815206.727781721110.00250.00253.713.7125FF15.77114.77101460.8492731269895.2703479413280.73082493504375914111123DRYL
2020-04-06 21:00:02FORECAST2020194-9246.1932.3839.285202.212921621980.13210.14213.713.8521TF14.19105.19101459.2685641263792.8700381611260.67260868128188913112125DRYL
2020-04-06 17:00:02FORECAST2020194-9244.4331.7838.105202.186161571950.13560.14563.713.8556TF12.43106.43101459.2591409543692.8558428763930.60248987816976913112125DRYL
2020-04-06 14:28:38FORECAST2020194-9244.4531.7938.12202.42169721540.13560.14563.73.8456TF12.45100.45101459.3420595028692.9807992869860.60331071104604913112125DRYL
2020-04-06 12:59:45FORECAST2020194-9246.0832.2739.175206.37433921850.06820.07823.73.7782TF14.08110.08101460.7261814210395.0820612514270.66837106264844913111122.5DRYL
2020-04-06 09:00:02FORECAST2020194-9248.1632.2740.215206.797249218310.03760.04763.693.7376TF16.16106.16101460.8734532439695.3073623685970.74435356326686914111123DRYL
2020-04-06 05:00:02FORECAST2020194-9248.8134.6141.71206.584112211570.03470.03473.73.7347TF16.81108.81101460.7992513733595.193804252720.7660876772762914111123DRYL
2020-04-06 01:00:04FORECAST2020194-9247.2236.0141.615206.367621857310.05370.05373.693.7437TF15.22111.22101460.7238409280195.0784833852770.71115557613153914111123DRYL
2020-04-05 21:00:02FORECAST2020194-9243.9534.4239.185206.966542445150.29640.29643.693.9864TF11.95108.95101460.932362649795.3975773986850.58266175508095913112125DRYL
2020-04-05 17:00:45FORECAST2020194-9243.9734.5339.25206.863834573790.35110.35113.694.0411TF11.97107.97101460.896626146195.3428434267060.58349251363476913112125WETL
2020-04-05 12:59:46FORECAST2020194-9244.0134.5539.28206.793712901990.35110.35113.694.0411TF12.01107.01101460.8722224326395.3054780502380.5851529090237913112125WETL
2020-04-05 09:00:02FORECAST2020194-9240.0534.1137.08210.355119696510.97230.97233.724.6923TF8.0593.05101462.1061824449697.2064013207060.41824166188098912113126WETL
2020-04-05 05:00:02FORECAST2020194-923833.7535.875211.02269816660.95020.95023.724.6702TF690101462.3362460298497.5634420974330.33556759301826912113126WETL
2020-04-05 00:59:46FORECAST2020194-9238.0233.7635.89211.131182766390.95020.95023.714.6602TF6.0291.02101462.3735955959297.6214841181170.33634400401186912113126WETL
2020-04-04 21:00:03FORECAST2020194-9238.7730.7534.76208.2269319480.07270.12273.743.8627TF6.7786.77101461.3701482484896.0696904621760.36593729776753912112124DRYL
2020-04-04 17:00:03FORECAST2020194-9238.4828.5933.535209.084956256360.09080.29083.814.1008TF6.4892.48101461.6673749119796.5277028884580.35438819143632912112124WETL
2020-04-04 13:00:02FORECAST2020194-9250.9135.6343.27206.770280247130.00150.01153.783.7915TF18.91115.91101460.8640664413995.2929921739170.82885003144552914111123DRYL
2020-04-04 09:00:02FORECAST2020194-9236.635.6436.12206.920630759240.00130.01133.793.8013TF4.6105.6101460.9163891438795.3731099689180.28311587808076912111122DRYL
2020-04-04 05:00:42FORECAST2020194-9237.1636.0536.605207.253732626910.00460.01463.843.8546TF5.16109.16101461.0322390492995.5506524043050.30362564619138912111122DRYL
2020-04-04 00:58:45FORECAST2020194-9237.4837.4837.48207.214582933530.00090.01093.823.8309TF5.48110.48101461.0186282121595.529782769570.31563519985909912111122DRYL