Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, April 1, 2020

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DAY 184 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 04/01/2020 01:00:02 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.38°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.36°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.37°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.230 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 84 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.16 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.42 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.79 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.21 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 214 in SWE DAY: 91 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 454.59 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 97.28 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -101 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-04-01 12:59:48	FORECAST	2020	184	-101	31.38	21.36	26.37	202.61673645783	0.1616	1.4216	2.79	4.2116	T	F	-0.62	84.38	92	454.59242688554	92.108033953992	0.22958963289552	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-04-01 08:58:59	FORECAST	2020	184	-101	33.05	19.86	26.455	202.89351407381	0.2337	1.4937	2.79	4.2837	T	F	1.05	86.05	92	454.69313887459	92.254288771517	0.293572838741	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-04-01 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-101	29.69	21.45	25.57	203.04578772769	0.2417	1.5017	2.79	4.2917	T	F	-2.31	82.69	92	454.74851700975	92.334770854245	0.17365124771929	90	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-04-01 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.48	20.53	27.005	203.0000110892	0.2465	1.5065	2.79	4.2965	T	F	1.48	86.48	91	454.18679756511	92.199924942283	0.31128908376551	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-31 20:59:49	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	32.77	19.19	25.98	201.71582975288	0.3487	1.6087	2.79	4.3987	T	F	0.77	85.77	91	453.71726553341	91.521954690282	0.28229341958511	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-31 16:58:57	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	32.83	20.15	26.49	201.69615257668	0.3674	1.6274	2.79	4.4174	T	F	0.83	85.83	91	453.71005909628	91.511573305056	0.28469282330138	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-31 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	31.89	20.66	26.275	202.16500981415	0.4354	1.6954	2.79	4.4854	T	F	-0.11	84.89	91	453.88167231244	91.758992737508	0.24826309922641	90	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-03-31 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	32.74	21.22	26.98	204.37544297104	0.4519	1.7119	2.79	4.5019	T	F	0.74	85.74	91	454.68799756992	92.92706091697	0.28109737353602	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-31 05:00:34	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	32.54	23.55	28.045	206.35055974088	0.7785	2.1185	2.79	4.9085	T	F	0.54	80.54	91	455.4046638685	93.973007297873	0.27318683043448	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-31 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	32.45	23.45	27.95	206.73167026817	0.7358	2.2058	2.79	4.9958	T	F	0.45	85.45	91	455.54253556704	94.175069255971	0.26966338245344	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-30 21:00:01	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	32.38	22.81	27.595	203.24744503685	0.4532	2.0532	2.79	4.8432	T	F	0.38	85.38	91	454.27709038194	92.330657958901	0.26693873092857	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-30 16:59:49	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	32.63	21.93	27.28	202.79920114677	0.3974	1.9574	2.79	4.7474	T	F	0.63	85.63	91	454.11347690647	92.093850346612	0.27673291190536	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-30 13:00:01	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.02	23.29	28.155	203.1220578069	0.4109	2.0609	2.79	4.8509	T	F	1.02	86.02	91	454.23134156107	92.264404818275	0.29235441277473	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-30 09:28:45	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.74	22.91	28.325	206.78922268435	0.3284	2.1084	2.79	4.8984	T	F	1.74	87.74	91	455.5633443068	94.205589852686	0.32222076806074	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-30 09:00:34	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.77	21.13	27.45	200.68892290345	0.3554	2.0754	2.79	4.8654	T	F	1.77	87.77	91	453.34069655282	90.980456099484	0.32349230055445	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-30 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.49	21.42	27.455	202.68717905414	0.3831	2.5831	2.79	5.3731	T	F	1.49	89.49	91	454.07255862667	92.034685993936	0.31170655380403	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-30 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.5	23.87	28.685	203.98339637137	0.3631	2.9831	2.79	5.7731	T	T	1.5	90.5	91	454.5453162632	92.719697416068	0.31212426576436	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-29 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.42	23.77	28.595	201.94327231701	0.6294	2.9194	2.79	5.7094	T	T	1.42	90.42	91	453.80053643683	91.641965307266	0.30878936848937	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-29 16:59:07	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.65	22.57	28.11	201.47189997664	0.5127	2.8227	2.79	5.6127	T	T	1.65	90.65	91	453.62790487928	91.39327587845	0.31841867347391	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-29 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.5	22.53	28.015	201.68578245843	0.4656	2.8556	2.79	5.6456	T	T	1.5	90.5	91	453.70626106875	91.506102269941	0.31212426576436	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-29 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	27.74	22.83	25.285	203.60772584997	0.5489	2.8389	2.79	5.6289	T	T	-4.26	83.74	91	454.40846149285	92.521073451542	0.12094023447571	90	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-03-29 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	32.65	21.14	26.895	204.17559316544	0.3793	2.8193	3.06	5.8793	T	T	0.65	84.65	91	454.61528205286	92.821344875219	0.27752397801541	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-29 01:00:01	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	34.08	21.59	27.835	204.13421705969	0.3414	2.8114	3.07	5.8814	T	T	2.08	83.08	91	454.60022270989	92.799460538043	0.33674993858891	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-28 20:59:52	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	34.46	20.67	27.565	204.37087472805	0.3104	2.8904	3.24	6.1304	T	T	2.46	81.46	91	454.68633582312	92.924644179063	0.35328060737462	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-28 16:59:06	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	34.42	20.44	27.43	202.3933848894	0.1957	2.5657	3.24	5.8057	T	T	2.42	91.42	91	453.96518918608	91.879551261326	0.35152678582987	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-28 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	34.48	20.46	27.47	202.3349846029	0.1957	2.4757	3.32	5.7957	T	T	2.48	88.48	91	453.94383678361	91.848719226196	0.35415869016842	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-28 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	40.85	24.09	32.47	202.6500250237	0.0561	2.1961	3.29	5.4861	T	F	8.85	92.85	91	454.05898481259	92.015064634509	0.64730274156253	90	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-03-28 04:59:08	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	42.96	24.92	33.94	202.92588196323	0.0198	2.0698	3.49	5.5598	T	F	10.96	98.96	91	454.15973554888	92.160764888444	0.73473955295734	90	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-03-28 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	42.99	24.94	33.965	195.27206132984	0.0198	1.9798	3.54	5.5198	T	F	10.99	101.99	91	451.33798400797	88.13369849369	0.73589927887363	90	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-03-27 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	37.91	22.6	30.255	194.31857434501	0.0183	1.8483	3.67	5.5183	T	F	5.91	96.91	91	450.98260160322	87.634296197942	0.5123234208211	90	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-03-27 17:00:01	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	35.09	19.95	27.52	194.1769045515	0.1034	2.0834	3.61	5.6934	T	T	3.09	101.09	91	450.92972514619	87.560138199146	0.38129255724871	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-27 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	35.14	19.98	27.56	195.0127829388	0.1034	2.1434	3.56	5.7034	T	T	3.14	99.14	91	451.24143129446	87.99784729402	0.38354484694101	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-27 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	31.53	21.87	26.7	198.21437824416	0.063	2.403	3.65	6.053	T	T	-0.47	92.53	91	452.42923024526	89.677978572546	0.2349988284579	90	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-03-27 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	34.86	22.23	28.545	199.98258889285	0.065	2.635	3.59	6.225	T	T	2.86	95.86	91	453.08111159573	90.608333675363	0.37098479317872	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-27 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	35.72	23.04	29.38	199.08506742973	0.0629	2.7729	3.62	6.3929	T	T	3.72	100.72	91	452.75059071996	90.135881882332	0.40994060827721	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-26 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	36.29	22.9	29.595	188.73933867078	0.0663	3.3663	3.72	7.0863	T	T	4.29	109.29	91	448.88577491026	84.722404295281	0.43628587474481	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-26 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.18	21.37	27.275	191.32054042443	0.2487	3.5787	3.77	7.3487	T	T	1.18	93.18	91	449.85955412992	86.067373011231	0.29887962679448	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-26 13:00:28	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.22	21.39	27.305	190.79283118895	0.2487	3.5787	3.9	7.4787	T	T	1.22	100.22	91	449.66099041539	85.792093436581	0.30052120082084	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-26 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	36.23	25.93	31.08	183.51928016308	0.365	1.605	3.74	5.345	T	F	4.23	114.23	91	446.89684654589	82.014187585253	0.43349720387054	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-26 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	35.94	25.09	30.515	183.09923632404	0.5897	1.9697	3.63	5.5997	T	F	3.94	110.94	91	446.7356535934	81.796957011671	0.42006767793134	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-26 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	36	25.12	30.56	182.5724724219	0.5897	1.9697	3.5	5.4697	T	F	4	116	91	446.5332633072	81.524681900616	0.42283911503954	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-25 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	37.7	21.63	29.665	194.80498074013	0.2624	3.6724	3.67	7.3424	T	T	5.7	95.7	91	451.16400189045	87.88899469891	0.50243296653191	90	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-03-25 16:59:16	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	37.64	21.53	29.585	197.72820587042	0.4119	3.9819	3.7	7.6819	T	T	5.64	95.64	91	452.24948065533	89.422478415806	0.49960658176035	90	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-03-25 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	27.62	19.06	23.34	205.43839531524	0.325	3.895	3.68	7.575	T	T	-4.38	73.62	91	455.07413400628	93.489699839725	0.11811007443513	90	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-03-25 08:59:18	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	33.56	31.92	32.74	188.96269322496	0.2637	2.1837	3.59	5.7737	T	T	1.56	96.56	91	448.97028976925	84.83863513279	0.31463559310484	90	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-03-25 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	38.51	36.4	37.455	190.89446243137	0.009	2.279	3.84	6.119	T	T	6.51	97.51	91	449.69925239203	85.845097041167	0.54051946286199	90	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-03-25 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	184	-102	38.51	38.51	38.51	190.36880800862	0	2.27	3.78	6.05	T	T	6.51	100.51	91	449.50124819635	85.571016817525	0.54051946286199	90	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L