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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, March 5, 2020

[ Wednesday, March 4, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, March 6, 2020 ]

DAY 157 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/06/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.755
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 6
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -8

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.70 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.19 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 191 in
SWE DAY: 65
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 434.21 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 82.78 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -128

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-06 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020157-12838.4827.8900633.18503190.64922500.74.194.89TF6.48-7.5265434.20733750208 82.7812923840850.7549348026724688 4113129WETL
2020-03-05 11:59:55FORECAST2020157-12843.6928.9536.32193.925390068390.08660.78664.194.9766TF11.69-2.3165435.563847427684.4668890120870.927944538163828851131210.5WETL
2020-03-05 08:00:01FORECAST2020157-12841.1730.0135.59194.125898281420.17140.87144.195.0614TF9.17-4.8365435.6465026969684.5702686692060.86164066131828851131210.5WETL
2020-03-05 04:00:03FORECAST2020157-12836.1628.5832.37193.95561434260.19340.89344.195.0834TF4.16-9.8465435.5763094399184.48247069050.63582773783314883113127.5WETL
2020-03-05 00:00:03FORECAST2020157-12841.7629.5735.665192.24079422690.23260.81264.195.0026TF9.76-0.2465434.8677433679183.5993203687090.879999449181378851131210.5WETL
2020-03-04 19:59:56FORECAST2020157-12840.3728.9234.645192.506885117990.27110.86114.195.0511TF8.37-0.6365434.9778948916683.7362396407750.83383552451694884113129WETL
2020-03-04 16:00:03FORECAST2020157-12840.3328.5934.46192.691358771630.30250.89254.195.0825TF8.33-0.6765435.0542162929883.831188076820.83235671700565884113129WETL
2020-03-04 12:00:03FORECAST2020157-12840.6228.6934.655192.572931525750.28480.87484.195.0648TF8.62-0.3865435.0052240655283.7702312273110.84288694662429884113129WETL
2020-03-04 07:59:34FORECAST2020157-12842.4129.5535.98192.057119762560.2110.8014.194.991TF10.412.4165434.7916656723983.5048350058050.898163130545968851131210.5WETL
2020-03-04 04:00:03FORECAST2020157-12842.4829.6336.055192.643496011940.21050.84054.195.0305TF10.48-1.5265435.0344176980683.8065511108710.899993296946558851131210.5WETL
2020-03-04 00:00:02FORECAST2020157-12841.5629.7935.675192.787527823420.25460.42464.194.6146TF9.56-1.4465435.0939896755783.8806946403810.87397828134634885112127WETL
2020-03-03 20:00:03FORECAST2020157-12841.2828.8835.08191.613797268070.21950.79954.194.9895TF9.285.2865434.6078958579583.2768692480280.865200774821858851131210.5WETL
2020-03-03 16:00:02FORECAST2020157-12840.2628.7734.515191.652504997130.28510.84514.195.0351TF8.264.2665434.6239495617383.2967686652530.82974852534481884113129WETL
2020-03-03 12:00:02FORECAST2020157-12840.1528.534.325193.001366243450.41381.00384.195.1938TF8.154.1565435.1823936823583.9907965457860.825597845681098841141212WETL
2020-03-03 08:00:03FORECAST2020157-12838.9228.4133.665193.220780674830.53121.11124.195.3012TF6.920.9265435.2730529985284.1037991070920.774911534659058841141212WETL
2020-03-03 04:00:14FORECAST2020157-12838.5628.4733.515193.168924684480.46411.10414.195.2941TF6.56-3.4465435.2516313070484.0770895867450.758636298473998841141212WETL
2020-03-03 00:00:03FORECAST2020157-12838.5328.3633.445192.283429835280.48841.24843.094.3384TF6.533.5365434.8853978997583.6212558934430.757251802192178841141212WETL
2020-03-02 20:00:02FORECAST2020157-12838.626.1832.39192.60737674510.40861.36863.75.0686TF6.61.665435.0194752456583.7879599600940.760475610778528841141212WETL
2020-03-02 16:00:02FORECAST2020157-12838.8928.5533.72192.869389851750.37891.41893.75.1189TF6.89-1.1165435.1278383371783.9228406876020.773579425548878841141212WETL
2020-03-02 12:00:02FORECAST2020157-12839.0826.8632.97193.030754589920.34221.36223.75.0622TF7.08-0.9265435.1945395125684.0059303555210.781940794618098841141212WETL
2020-03-02 07:59:42FORECAST2020157-12835.9629.4132.685191.853128659420.21161.19163.654.8416TF3.96-6.0465434.7071312454783.3999231800060.624674507655228831141210WETL
2020-03-02 04:00:03FORECAST2020157-12844.4728.8336.65191.876361662060.07670.99673.754.7467TF12.472.4765434.7167612706283.4118705061210.942511676401098851141214WETL
2020-03-02 00:00:02FORECAST2020157-12844.528.8336.665190.600114659520.07811.03813.654.6881TF12.56.565434.1869171624282.7560761948190.943022030065678851141214WETL
2020-03-01 20:00:02FORECAST2020157-12842.3529.335.825192.585709198910.17741.25743.744.9974TF10.3511.3565435.0105107768983.7768077269490.896575177003978851141214WETL
2020-03-01 16:00:01FORECAST2020157-12842.3729.8336.1191.474552736340.20791.26793.684.9479TF10.3717.3765434.5501323108783.2052922257440.897106473231058851141214WETL
2020-03-01 12:00:01FORECAST2020157-12842.4129.8736.14192.066564639620.20791.31793.664.9779TF10.4112.4165434.795578592483.5096931007370.898163130545968851141214WETL
2020-03-01 08:00:11FORECAST2020157-12844.630.6537.625191.351278107020.18971.34973.64.9497TF12.613.665434.4989765906783.1419345068170.944697566187998851141214WETL
2020-03-01 04:00:03FORECAST2020157-12844.1230.437.26190.754178912640.19851.37853.685.0585TF12.1216.1265434.2509693569882.835187101710.936289400650568851141214WETL
2020-03-01 00:00:03FORECAST2020157-12844.1630.4437.3185.22066080170.19851.24852.573.8185TF12.1612.1665431.934619802980.0032157030260.937025897693968851141214DRYL
2020-02-29 20:00:02FORECAST2020157-12842.7129.0535.88184.511745887640.07081.03082.843.8708TF10.7116.7165431.635506038679.6418208062780.905837996122368851141214DRYL
2020-02-29 15:59:47FORECAST2020157-12839.4927.9833.735186.847385459930.621.762.844.6TF7.4911.4965432.6189541753380.8337204880720.799365611484888841151215WETL
2020-02-29 12:00:02FORECAST2020157-12839.5327.9833.755187.550151570630.621.642.784.42TF7.5312.5365432.9137219640681.1930341713660.801019731474498841151215WETL
2020-02-29 08:00:02FORECAST2020157-12838.9526.5132.73189.291137017580.62341.69342.954.6434TF6.95-1.0565433.6416975072182.0845299793730.776239199678898841151215WETL
2020-02-29 04:00:03FORECAST2020157-12839.0726.3232.695190.418548621870.57621.71623.385.0962TF7.072.0765434.1113989212582.6628625227940.781505200250418841151215WETL
2020-02-28 23:59:50FORECAST2020157-12839.0926.3232.705195.209311888830.57621.63623.595.2262TF7.098.0965436.092389527185.1292952795390.782375888896368841151215WETL
2020-02-28 20:00:03FORECAST2020157-12840.1827.9434.06196.058995668490.83432.01433.725.7343TT8.1815.1865436.4412256304185.5682283654230.826736158523448841151215WETL
2020-02-28 16:00:03FORECAST2020157-12841.329.435.35196.467524707310.0272.0273.775.797TT9.321.365436.6086786540985.77942636090.865841274008198851151217.5WETL
2020-02-28 12:00:02FORECAST2020157-12841.3329.435.365198.181201791830.0272.0273.925.947TT9.3320.3365437.3092120811486.6664652048770.866798108991668851151217.5WETL
2020-02-28 08:00:03FORECAST2020157-12837.7127.3732.54198.108406155280.55792.18793.595.7779TT5.7114.7165437.2795159518886.628747949580.717803586564348841151215WETL
2020-02-28 03:59:51FORECAST2020157-12838.0223.8130.915202.112296294750.68292.99293.556.5429TT6.0211.0265438.904729034288.7080426397260.733072526307728841151215WETL
2020-02-28 00:00:02FORECAST2020157-12838.0523.8130.93201.439329648280.68292.99293.336.3229TT6.0516.0565438.6327203971188.3578811585950.73452774095998841151215WETL
2020-02-27 20:00:04FORECAST2020157-12835.7627.4631.61199.465300009530.39081.96083.445.4008TF3.7622.7665437.8321432540787.332319807990.61341610746518831151212.5WETL
2020-02-27 16:00:02FORECAST2020157-12836.821.1628.98197.820387946870.0481.5183.374.888TF4.822.865437.1619684351486.4795501914590.670712470234498831151212.5WETL
2020-02-27 12:00:02FORECAST2020157-12830.6520.6725.66197.233205090160.03671.47673.44.8767TF-1.3520.6565436.9220577268186.1755378200450.32035778129014882114128WETL
2020-02-27 08:00:03FORECAST2020157-12825.6323.7124.67207.375082867460.40062.51063.415.9206TT-6.372.6365441.015952591.4557196955610.11338709477941881115127.5WETL
2020-02-27 03:59:55FORECAST2020157-12825.6425.0125.325200.050930607550.00071.52073.414.9307TF-6.362.6465438.0700674659287.6363246678710.11367164042918881115127.5WETL