Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 27, 2020

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DAY 179 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/28/2020 05:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.08°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.97°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.02°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.268 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 91 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.44 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.52 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.19 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 187 in SWE DAY: 86 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 445.36 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 83.28 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -107 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-28 04:59:07	OBSERVATION	2020	179	-107	31.08002	22.96994	27.02498	187.00914041667	0.44000000000005	0.67000000000005	1.52	2.1900000000001	F	F	-0.91998	91.08002	86	445.35853276884	83.286116390329	0.26785080954194	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-27 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-106	36.23	25.93	31.08	178.83889534562	0.3158	0.5458	1.52	2.0658	F	F	4.23	96.23	87	442.75054194718	79.181017835509	0.48402087253137	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-27 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	179	-106	32.29	28.03	30.16	179.22044011425	0.3506	0.5806	1.52	2.1006	F	F	0.29	92.29	87	442.90082813121	79.376881344644	0.31446916979386	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-27 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	35.92	26.32	31.12	179.04570411868	0.3602	0.5902	1.52	2.1102	F	F	3.92	95.92	86	442.24164033325	79.181465884067	0.47013450078002	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-26 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	35.88	25.82	30.85	178.06809627891	0.3696	0.5996	1.52	2.1196	F	F	3.88	95.88	86	441.85464105337	78.680214764375	0.46834499536279	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-26 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	35.49	25.81	30.65	178.16163692246	0.4424	0.6724	1.52	2.1924	F	F	3.49	95.49	86	441.89171197087	78.728150747198	0.45093630841593	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-26 13:00:28	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	35.24	26.35	30.795	178.08852288384	0.4494	0.6794	1.52	2.1994	F	F	3.24	95.24	86	441.86273703466	78.690682155912	0.43982420650206	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-26 09:00:01	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	35.53	25.96	30.745	178.17536911255	0.4995	0.7295	1.52	2.2495	F	F	3.53	95.53	86	441.89715340806	78.735188418268	0.45271805086812	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-26 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	34.98	25.95	30.465	178.61934521014	0.5652	0.7752	1.52	2.2952	F	F	2.98	92.98	86	442.07297854949	78.962785963605	0.42831781427683	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-26 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	35.66	27.26	31.46	178.22089121988	0.5066	0.7066	1.52	2.2266	F	F	3.66	96.66	86	441.91519037422	78.758519072098	0.4585151075342	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-25 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	31.47	25.79	28.63	178.79284991255	0.523	0.713	1.52	2.233	F	F	-0.53	91.47	86	442.14163669079	79.051763288944	0.28249080401659	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-25 16:59:16	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	31.53	25.44	28.485	179.0424307239	0.5413	0.7113	1.52	2.2313	F	F	-0.47	92.53	86	442.24034611847	79.17978653323	0.28477688267507	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-25 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	32.88	24.74	28.81	179.39442666377	0.6727	0.8627	1.52	2.3827	F	F	0.88	90.88	86	442.37945450097	79.360408608033	0.33839085112419	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-25 08:59:18	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.34	24.52	28.93	179.83673406183	0.6314	0.8214	1.52	2.3414	F	F	1.34	90.34	86	442.55407762656	79.587479966104	0.35751127010744	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-25 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.35	25.19	29.27	180.40355517367	0.7062	0.9862	1.52	2.5062	F	F	1.35	88.35	86	442.77757220756	79.87864817741	0.35793114010379	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-25 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.16	25.34	29.25	180.37559443357	0.6844	1.0144	1.52	2.5344	F	F	1.16	91.16	86	442.7665549781	79.864280549479	0.34998351787362	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-24 21:00:04	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.73	24.96	29.345	180.56953329238	0.711	1.231	1.52	2.751	F	F	1.73	87.73	86	442.84295562326	79.963945818708	0.37400928158193	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-24 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.07	24.79	28.93	180.31692405253	0.6652	1.1952	1.52	2.7152	F	F	1.07	91.07	86	442.74343484007	79.834134314816	0.34624140522487	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-24 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.37	26.15	29.76	180.07503223686	0.6535	1.2035	1.52	2.7235	F	F	1.37	91.37	86	442.64807654648	79.709866653693	0.35877139518741	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-24 10:03:53	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	30.51	25.97	28.24	180.57591713457	0.3852	0.8652	1.52	2.3852	F	F	-1.49	88.51	86	442.84546984652	79.967226866427	0.24716152310809	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-24 09:00:04	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	30.51	25.93	28.22	189.61091475367	0.3674	0.8074	1.51	2.3174	F	F	-1.49	88.51	86	446.36328049702	84.635349927487	0.24716152310809	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-24 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	34.11	25.16	29.635	189.49980774636	0.292	0.572	1.65	2.222	F	F	2.11	88.11	86	446.32050901183	84.577650651	0.39030958912997	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-24 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	34.11	25.45	29.78	189.59690973082	0.3341	0.6541	1.67	2.3241	F	F	2.11	92.11	86	446.35788982208	84.628076544235	0.39030958912997	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-23 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	34.13	24.14	29.135	187.90243931823	0.2184	0.6084	1.71	2.3184	F	F	2.13	92.13	86	445.70425382139	83.748916507549	0.39117314634707	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-23 16:59:25	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	34.26	24.49	29.375	188.58162692296	0.3756	0.7756	1.77	2.5456	F	F	2.26	93.26	86	445.9665859163	84.101104325373	0.39679916890808	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-23 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.5	27.17	30.335	188.88037515093	0.4601	0.8901	1.79	2.6801	F	F	1.5	87.5	86	446.08183237418	84.256103846851	0.36424955306281	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-23 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.23	26.91	30.07	191.7908209603	0.7077	1.1777	1.88	3.0577	F	F	1.23	87.23	86	447.20001489797	85.768857990739	0.3529041733721	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-23 04:59:30	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.82	27.36	30.59	7.2448170491121	0.4903	0.9303	1.98	2.9103	F	F	1.82	90.82	86	357.08286809028	2.5870000506863	0.37785079243155	86	2	1	1	3	3	2	18	DRY	L
2020-03-23 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.82	27.36	30.59	190.83539356407	0.4903	0.9103	1.95	2.8603	F	F	1.82	90.82	86	446.83385422923	85.271714429585	0.37785079243155	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-22 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.78	24.71	29.245	192.17689022565	0.5814	0.9714	2.02	2.9914	F	F	1.78	88.78	86	447.34772127116	85.969893923423	0.37614193765598	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-22 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	30.16	27.34	28.75	191.65719251715	0.412	0.692	2.11	2.802	F	F	-1.84	86.16	86	447.14885619326	85.699294415252	0.23489409035896	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-22 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	30.16	27.34	28.75	190.68115138327	0.412	0.662	1.98	2.642	F	F	-1.84	84.16	86	446.77465867402	85.191506324829	0.23489409035896	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-22 08:59:27	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.54	27.7	30.62	195.78820858687	0.5361	1.0161	2.03	3.0461	F	F	1.54	86.54	86	448.72238511918	87.854551935311	0.36594079358319	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-22 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.8	25.66	29.73	196.62227907641	0.5645	1.0145	2.02	3.0345	F	F	1.8	88.8	86	449.03808918694	88.29089248805	0.37699606398722	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-22 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.8	25.66	29.73	195.04134482196	0.5645	0.9945	1.79	2.7845	F	F	1.8	93.8	86	448.43912152187	87.464169332404	0.37699606398722	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.71	26.78	30.245	194.39964323983	0.753	0.963	1.76	2.723	F	F	1.71	94.71	86	448.1953133049	87.129009008235	0.37315729322525	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-21 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	34.54	27.45	30.995	196.77877202001	0.9223	1.2323	1.85	3.0823	F	F	2.54	94.54	86	449.09724885849	88.372805147938	0.40898850382563	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	34.54	27.45	30.995	197.1306995449	0.9223	1.2323	1.86	3.0923	F	F	2.54	92.54	86	449.23020359691	88.557064291757	0.40898850382563	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	31.62	24.08	27.85	198.70250764053	1.0609	1.3609	1.7	3.0609	F	F	-0.38	87.62	86	449.82256852292	89.380872358809	0.28822244429559	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	31.31	25.48	28.395	197.80911781201	0.9716	1.2216	1.7	2.9216	F	F	-0.69	94.31	86	449.48616817309	88.912462395017	0.27643805494863	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	31.31	25.48	28.395	198.53707900764	0.9716	1.2216	1.76	2.9816	F	F	-0.69	98.31	86	449.7603349814	89.294103160704	0.27643805494863	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-20 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.43	26.56	29.995	195.53189285468	0.458	0.908	1.73	2.638	F	F	1.43	97.43	86	448.62523261069	87.720540914741	0.36129624792666	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-20 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	33.64	26.87	30.255	196.91780037586	0.5648	1.0648	1.8	2.8648	F	F	1.64	96.64	86	449.14978659823	88.445588016211	0.37018023817117	86	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-20 12:59:36	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	30.19	26.87	28.53	196.06042038619	0.4488	0.9488	1.77	2.7188	F	F	-1.81	90.19	86	448.82549355325	87.996914946089	0.23593224716416	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-20 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	29.82	24.79	27.305	196.09515652671	0.3167	0.7267	1.91	2.6367	F	F	-2.18	94.82	86	448.83864578647	88.015084500732	0.22330611305895	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-20 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	26.36	25.95	26.155	196.66193746466	0.202	0.742	1.93	2.672	F	F	-5.64	86.36	86	449.05308363529	88.311649452197	0.12496849566385	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-20 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	179	-107	25.95	25.95	25.95	195.35736189397	0.0389	0.5789	1.93	2.5089	F	F	-6.05	87.95	86	448.55904314645	87.629311322775	0.11571624546261	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L