Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, March 24, 2020

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DAY 176 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/24/2020 10:03:53 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.73°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.30°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.02°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.257 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 87 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.38 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.88 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.67 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.55 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 183 in SWE DAY: 83 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.73 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 80.65 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -109 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-24 10:03:53	FORECAST	2020	176	-109	30.73	23.3	27.015	178.24403408943	0.3798	0.8798	0.67	1.5498	F	F	-1.27	86.73	84	440.73442846361	78.558282491455	0.2573957390961	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-24 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-109	30.67	23.39	27.03	187.29842408124	0.3703	0.8703	0.67	1.5403	F	F	-1.33	86.67	84	444.30769914017	83.218131856115	0.25486049130318	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-24 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-109	28.19	22.3	25.245	187.95538540063	0.5064	1.0064	0.67	1.6764	F	F	-3.81	84.19	84	444.56378208985	83.558156997858	0.16232770578736	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-24 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.45	22.24	26.845	187.95677173593	0.5333	1.0333	0.86	1.8933	F	F	-0.55	86.45	83	443.98053796693	83.449148629844	0.28880691511318	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-23 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.87	21.84	26.355	186.15319043413	0.5748	1.0748	0.86	1.9348	F	F	-1.13	85.87	83	443.27380047678	82.516832194614	0.2633618065868	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-23 16:59:25	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.71	22.01	26.36	186.35984151642	0.6277	1.1277	0.86	1.9877	F	F	-1.29	85.71	83	443.35494150528	82.623556634445	0.2565492049589	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-23 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.58	22.21	26.395	186.5273305511	0.6452	1.1452	0.86	2.0052	F	F	-1.42	85.58	83	443.42067441293	82.710074709411	0.25108223417312	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-23 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	29.73	22.13	25.93	188.57601774798	0.7371	1.2371	0.86	2.0971	F	F	-2.27	84.73	83	444.22244526402	83.769699722159	0.21690479006864	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-23 04:59:30	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.47	21.93	26.2	4.8128966305618	0.6766	1.3366	0.86	2.1966	F	F	-1.53	86.47	83	352.81258702321	1.6980505113038	0.24650485830527	90	1	1	1	4	4	2	24	DRY	L
2020-03-23 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.59	22.42	26.505	188.70561476114	0.7087	1.3087	0.86	2.1687	F	F	-1.41	85.59	83	444.2730239652	83.836814109146	0.25150057432323	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-22 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.94	22.2	26.57	189.21449510513	0.722	1.382	0.86	2.242	F	F	-1.06	85.94	83	444.47146716905	84.100444249029	0.26637106243876	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-22 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.75	21.93	26.34	189.59084817701	0.7666	1.4666	0.86	2.3266	F	F	-1.25	86.75	83	444.61806506982	84.295516071405	0.25824372033018	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-22 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	29.92	22.03	25.975	188.84942809369	0.7274	1.3374	0.86	2.1974	F	F	-2.08	85.92	83	444.32913147971	83.911302365308	0.22430279272701	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-22 08:59:27	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.93	21.84	26.385	190.14625142153	0.7593	1.3893	0.86	2.2493	F	F	-1.07	86.93	83	444.83415115637	84.583546346662	0.26594010727313	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-22 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31	21.68	26.34	190.38302343213	0.7587	1.3787	0.86	2.2387	F	F	-1	83	83	444.92617742157	84.706390861618	0.26896418264356	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-22 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.12	23.1	27.11	188.84780482855	0.6661	1.1461	0.86	2.0061	F	F	-0.88	88.12	83	444.32849829136	83.910461525088	0.27418810904493	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.11	23	27.055	188.7945052752	0.5675	1.1175	0.86	1.9775	F	F	-0.89	88.11	83	444.30770624115	83.882853589758	0.27375087725533	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.05	21.6	26.325	189.5875263767	0.665	1.205	0.86	2.065	F	F	-0.95	88.05	83	444.61677176753	84.293793944998	0.27113474203432	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.21	22.51	26.36	189.73172517611	0.7134	1.2234	0.86	2.0834	F	F	-1.79	86.21	83	444.67290376132	84.368557169706	0.23586547055158	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-21 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	26.34	22.2	24.27	188.60971242156	0.542	1.062	0.86	1.922	F	F	-5.66	83.34	83	444.23559711343	83.787148218985	0.10971655474426	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-21 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.68	20.95	25.815	188.76828261768	0.5188	1.0688	0.85	1.9188	F	F	-1.32	89.68	83	444.29747580124	83.869271478371	0.25528212435554	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-21 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.68	21.74	26.21	189.08111833586	0.5585	1.1185	0.86	1.9785	F	F	-1.32	93.68	83	444.41948030643	84.031332346583	0.25528212435554	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-20 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	29.4	20.95	25.175	188.91338589843	0.5399	1.0999	0.85	1.9499	F	F	-2.6	91.4	83	444.35407747466	83.944433313511	0.20439595937003	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-20 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	29.07	22.38	25.725	189.19111129341	0.5657	1.1557	0.86	2.0157	F	F	-2.93	91.07	83	444.46235402885	84.088326686803	0.19232601334341	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-20 12:59:36	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	29.07	22.38	25.725	188.69665180591	0.5657	1.1357	0.85	1.9857	F	F	-2.93	88.07	83	444.26952646805	83.832172143919	0.19232601334341	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-20 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.84	20.85	25.845	190.07453327648	0.7278	1.2778	0.85	2.1278	F	F	-1.16	91.84	83	444.80626551574	84.546343316358	0.26207745290652	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-20 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.02	19.31	25.165	190.07314094163	0.8174	1.2974	0.85	2.1474	F	F	-0.98	92.02	83	444.80572409412	84.545621087386	0.26983136000146	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-20 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.02	19.31	25.165	190.1420991638	0.8174	1.2874	0.86	2.1474	F	F	-0.98	94.02	83	444.83253680296	84.581392324073	0.26983136000146	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-19 21:00:01	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.45	20.67	26.06	189.12578417778	0.6528	1.1528	0.85	2.0028	F	F	-0.55	95.45	83	444.43689187377	84.05447569316	0.28880691511318	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-19 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.4	20.96	26.18	189.37325247417	0.6512	1.1512	0.85	2.0012	F	F	-0.6	93.4	83	444.53332378849	84.182721358981	0.28656855833292	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-19 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.4	20.96	26.18	189.60042485753	0.6512	1.1612	0.85	2.0112	F	F	-0.6	91.4	83	444.62179357206	84.300480962179	0.28656855833292	90	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-03-19 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.25	21.17	25.71	188.40634032971	0.4435	1.0035	0.84	1.8435	F	F	-1.75	85.25	83	444.15619893834	83.681843976727	0.2374856709521	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-19 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.74	23.09	27.415	187.97707339788	0.3792	0.8992	0.84	1.7392	F	F	-0.26	87.74	83	443.98847480734	83.459654116672	0.30194870812594	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-19 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	31.74	23.09	27.415	188.0732155645	0.3792	0.8992	0.86	1.7592	F	F	-0.26	91.74	83	444.02605558277	83.509408067872	0.30194870812594	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-18 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	29.52	20.57	25.045	190.2074308323	0.5662	1.1262	0.84	1.9662	F	F	-2.48	86.52	83	444.8579350836	84.615284917615	0.20889423878128	90	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-18 17:00:14	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.96	21.8	26.38	188.8411206325	0.4066	0.9266	0.86	1.7866	F	F	-1.04	83.96	83	444.32589095408	83.906999173801	0.26723403019231	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-18 13:00:14	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.96	21.8	26.38	189.12920031704	0.4066	0.9266	0.86	1.7866	F	F	-1.04	79.96	83	444.43822346642	84.056245794531	0.26723403019231	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-18 10:54:00	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	35.9	22.31	29.105	184.39530252999	0.0956	0.3356	0.86	1.1956	F	F	3.9	84.9	83	442.5818453889	81.61001327477	0.51087485505426	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 10:52:31	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	35.9	22.31	29.105	193.39530252999	0.0956	0.3356	0.86	1.1956	F	F	3.9	84.9	83	446.09214283732	86.272124920277	0.51087485505426	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 09:00:01	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	35.9	22.31	29.105	193.56099542639	0.0956	0.3356	0.87	1.2056	F	F	3.9	82.9	83	446.15601924308	86.358403200166	0.51087485505426	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 05:00:04	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	36.02	26.04	31.03	192.56638282474	0.1121	0.1921	0.88	1.0721	F	F	4.02	86.02	83	445.77218135159	85.84073652677	0.51715493986979	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 00:59:39	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	36.02	26.04	31.03	191.82613908388	0.1121	0.1921	0.87	1.0621	F	F	4.02	96.02	83	445.4858786495	85.455836117723	0.51715493986979	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 20:59:42	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	34.85	26.93	30.89	194.30724071833	0.2897	0.6097	0.89	1.4997	F	F	2.85	83.85	83	446.44337193115	86.747179736931	0.45598066129828	90	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-03-17 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	37.13	25.93	31.53	194.25292407382	0.2351	0.5551	0.92	1.4751	F	F	5.13	85.13	83	446.42247488546	86.718871118773	0.57484299741258	90	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	30.22	25.93	28.075	194.44902349137	0.2027	0.5227	0.92	1.4427	F	F	-1.78	76.22	83	446.49790592038	86.821081797161	0.23626994942938	90	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	26.39	25.65	26.02	192.76024995431	0.0523	0.2723	0.89	1.1623	F	F	-5.61	64.39	83	445.84707407281	85.941593439671	0.11095520457491	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-17 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	27	26.5	26.75	192.45159745432	0.0106	0.2506	0.9	1.1506	F	F	-5	72	83	445.72782128325	85.781031235795	0.1268753163878	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-17 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	176	-110	27	27	27	192.2826949855	0.0028	0.2428	0.94	1.1828	F	F	-5	76	83	445.66252354554	85.693191081376	0.1268753163878	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L