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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, March 22, 2020

[ Saturday, March 21, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, March 23, 2020 ]

DAY 174 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/22/2020 09:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.23°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 38.37°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.835
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 95

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.03 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.84 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.89 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 175 in
SWE DAY: 81
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.64 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 77.29 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -111

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-22 08:59:27FORECAST2020174-11144.532.2338.365183.507404600460.02620.04620.840.8862FF12.594.582441.6385002469281.0439349519540.83499191087237874111123DRYL
2020-03-22 05:00:01FORECAST2020174-11141.428.0334.715183.604605457620.02140.04140.840.8814FF9.491.482441.6770749142481.0939450793050.72314582553585874111123DRYL
2020-03-22 01:00:03FORECAST2020174-11246.4728.3437.405183.413723888150.00940.02940.960.9894FF14.4794.4781441.00624863880.886598320640.88818326671815875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-21 21:00:02FORECAST2020174-11246.3929.2937.84183.466448362490.02650.04650.961.0065FF14.3994.3981441.0272584681980.9137047422040.88629502615653875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-21 17:00:01FORECAST2020174-11245.8627.9236.89183.478988422430.02190.04190.961.0019FF13.8693.8681441.0322550603180.9201520201290.87321227056021875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-21 13:00:03FORECAST2020174-11245.3130.137.705183.403628953650.00390.02390.960.9839FF13.3193.3181441.0022256527880.8814085613550.85856795597664875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-21 09:00:02FORECAST2020174-11245.9530.7138.33183.110814141570.02010.04010.961.0001FF13.9593.9581440.8854895864980.7309009413860.87550456672466875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-21 05:00:02FORECAST2020174-11246.1230.6938.405183.067329755860.01910.02910.960.9891FF14.1296.1281440.8681463227180.7085543217130.8797552814209875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-21 01:00:02FORECAST2020174-11246.3930.738.545182.929649567380.00240.02240.960.9824FF14.39100.3981440.8132214744180.6378081289830.88629502615653875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-20 21:00:02FORECAST2020174-11245.4430.4337.935182.976466410.0040.0140.960.974FF13.4499.4481440.8319003035480.6618633983470.86212840791133875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-20 17:00:02FORECAST2020174-11245.3630.2837.82183.00526211430.0050.0250.960.985FF13.3699.3681440.8433880152780.6766597750910.859944645269875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-20 12:59:36FORECAST2020174-11241.9431.3236.63182.574046771780.00550.01550.960.9755FF9.9495.9481440.6712717134580.4551373727890.74496151674018874111123DRYL
2020-03-20 09:00:03FORECAST2020174-11246.1631.3538.755182.3739725250.00340.01340.960.9734FF14.1698.1681440.5913495621780.3523946798040.88074045700955875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-20 05:00:02FORECAST2020174-11246.2931.5938.94182.364369325470.00220.01220.960.9722FF14.2997.2981440.5875124228280.3474638356660.88390300828299875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-20 01:00:01FORECAST2020174-11245.731.3538.525182.339933855430.00340.02340.960.9834FF13.799.781440.5777483481980.3349174919860.86906508647406875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-19 21:00:01FORECAST2020174-11245.8231.9438.88182.351484487260.00180.01180.960.9718FF13.8299.8281440.5823638958680.3408480953180.87218412523468875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-19 17:00:03FORECAST2020174-11245.5431.9338.735182.381703195330.00490.01490.960.9749FF13.5498.5481440.5944384291980.3563640991070.86482538039196875111123.5DRYL
2020-03-19 13:00:02FORECAST2020174-11244.3330.9637.645182.461531623350.00550.01550.960.9755FF12.3397.3381440.626331133280.3973552521390.8297387585694874111123DRYL
2020-03-19 09:00:03FORECAST2020174-11239.2129.7234.465182.180245608950.00290.00290.960.9629FF7.2192.2181440.5139242184480.2529349082770.6264705083333873111122.5DRYL
2020-03-19 05:00:03FORECAST2020174-11244.1930.0937.14182.168804332670.00070.00070.960.9607FF12.1993.1981440.5093503801580.2470616561150.82533328009874874111123DRYL
2020-03-19 01:00:03FORECAST2020174-11244.1930.0937.14182.128123752120.00040.00040.980.9804FF12.1997.1981440.4930865726880.2261793832630.82533328009874874111123DRYL
2020-03-18 21:00:02FORECAST2020174-11242.6428.2335.435182.508539427310.05680.05680.961.0168FF10.6493.6481440.6451084602680.4214951508720.77184447715416874111123DRYL
2020-03-18 17:00:14FORECAST2020174-11242.1628.535.33182.63747825840.05720.06720.971.0372FF10.1691.1681440.6966017328780.4877160175380.75358472846211874111123DRYL
2020-03-18 13:00:14FORECAST2020174-11242.1628.535.33182.753479205370.05720.06720.971.0372FF10.1687.1681440.7429136971980.5473009132710.75358472846211874111123DRYL
2020-03-18 10:54:00FORECAST2020174-11240.6328.7834.705182.534714264380.03350.04350.971.0135FF8.6382.6381440.6555630604780.4349372922510.69054148990442873111122.5DRYL
2020-03-18 10:52:31FORECAST2020174-11240.6328.7834.705191.534714264380.03350.04350.971.0135FF8.6382.6381444.2093958184685.081519701640.69054148990442873111122.5DRYL
2020-03-18 09:00:01FORECAST2020174-11240.6328.7834.705191.670822681280.03350.05350.971.0235FF8.6380.6381444.262519840585.1521626642880.69054148990442873111122.5DRYL
2020-03-18 05:00:03FORECAST2020174-11241.0128.5434.775191.74936638840.03410.05410.981.0341FF9.0179.0181444.2931676166785.1929333811930.70684213098663874111123DRYL
2020-03-18 00:59:39FORECAST2020174-11241.0128.5434.775191.295564766540.03410.05410.971.0241FF9.0189.0181444.1160096798584.957422893570.70684213098663874111123DRYL
2020-03-17 20:59:42FORECAST2020174-1123527.4531.225191.527655518560.03440.05440.991.0444FF38181444.2066402419785.0778563713190.42234141303952872111122DRYL
2020-03-17 17:00:03FORECAST2020174-11238.6326.2432.435191.640650643380.0350.0850.991.075FF6.6381.6381444.2507450773985.136501835440.59913049511916873111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 13:00:02FORECAST2020174-11238.6326.2432.435191.68110978570.0350.0850.991.075FF6.6379.6381444.2665342194585.1575023198290.59913049511916873111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 09:00:02FORECAST2020174-11234.4226.5530.485191.364158581040.00350.013511.0135FF2.4272.4281444.1428008673784.9930133778120.39460773387179872111122DRYL
2020-03-17 05:00:02FORECAST2020174-11238.4927.0332.76191.113733279930.00350.023511.0235FF6.4978.4981444.0449678358984.8630915472820.59245210017375873111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 01:00:02FORECAST2020174-11238.4927.0332.76190.932361228280.00350.02351.041.0635FF6.4982.4981443.9740727997984.76901804380.59245210017375873111122.5DRYL
2020-03-16 21:00:02FORECAST2020174-11242.629.3335.965190.728872779210.25540.34541.031.3754FF10.684.681443.8944939795684.6634964696210.77035243772014874112126DRYL
2020-03-16 17:00:02FORECAST2020174-11242.4529.535.975191.015114813610.03540.16540.971.1354FF10.4583.4581444.0064237224684.8119380053250.76470897191615874112126DRYL
2020-03-16 13:00:02FORECAST2020174-11242.4529.535.975190.967440857590.03540.16540.981.1454FF10.4586.4581443.9877873365484.7872115196840.76470897191615874112126DRYL
2020-03-16 09:00:02FORECAST2020174-11241.8927.9434.915192.004314154140.08490.46490.991.4549FF9.8976.8981444.3926061821685.3252975651770.74297994083917874112126DRYL
2020-03-16 05:00:02FORECAST2020174-11241.2526.9134.08191.75346880110.08440.29440.991.2844FF9.2574.2581444.2947682112285.1950629746840.7169278823618874112126DRYL
2020-03-16 01:00:01FORECAST2020174-11241.2526.9134.08191.742277920940.08440.29440.981.2744FF9.2575.2581444.2904019457185.189253727480.7169278823618874112126DRYL
2020-03-15 21:00:02FORECAST2020174-11242.9528.1535.55190.524897748440.06780.43780.991.4278FF10.9588.9581443.8146835809184.5577472085110.7832215931743874112126DRYL
2020-03-15 17:00:04FORECAST2020174-11244.4328.7236.575190.255066300930.01890.46890.991.4589FF12.4393.4381443.7090416405684.4178931356450.8328416582898874112126DRYL
2020-03-15 13:00:03FORECAST2020174-11238.6928.7533.72190.573020992780.00470.45470.981.4347FF6.6983.6981443.8335167466184.582694104250.60198394379167873112125DRYL
2020-03-15 09:00:03FORECAST2020174-11227.6226.5827.1191.147894947690.01790.30790.971.2779FF-4.3871.6281444.0583173557284.8808125965610.13459101514891871112123DRYL
2020-03-15 05:00:01FORECAST2020174-11229.5828.6529.1150.142130314478510.00960.25960.961.2196FF-2.4271.5881347.995540951170.0494607156725080.193954441158158711124212DRYL
2020-03-15 01:00:03FORECAST2020174-11228.6828.6828.68190.824753865520.00350.25350.951.2035FF-3.3274.6881443.9319955994984.7132137933020.16495247748919871112123DRYL