MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, March 20, 2020

[ Thursday, March 19, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, March 21, 2020 ]

DAY 172 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/20/2020 01:00:03 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.01°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.90°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.779
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 73

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.51 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.55 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 179 in
SWE DAY: 79
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 440.46 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 78.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -113

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-20 12:59:36FORECAST2020172-11346.0129.7937.9183.548145557220.00860.03861.511.5486FF14.0173.0180440.4626813387780.8461083468930.7785314480939914111123DRYL
2020-03-20 09:00:03FORECAST2020172-11344.0130.1937.1183.527499154430.01260.04261.511.5526FF12.0171.0180440.4544248159780.8354990779790.70940997290238914111123DRYL
2020-03-20 05:00:02FORECAST2020172-11341.631.2336.415183.557037087060.00790.03791.511.5479FF9.668.680440.4662369395180.8506773895010.61482693869479913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-20 01:00:01FORECAST2020172-11445.4930.5738.03183.47599613190.01620.04622.642.6862FF13.4971.4979439.8343169989180.6990394443680.76151591054155914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 21:00:01FORECAST2020172-11444.9428.1436.54183.525763080650.01310.04312.642.6831FF12.9470.9479439.8542965108380.7245954114510.74276767994141914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 17:00:03FORECAST2020172-11444.8329.737.265183.515429490830.00980.03982.642.6798FF12.8370.8379439.8501481805380.7192888549540.73892829343532914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 13:00:02FORECAST2020172-11445.2630.2437.75183.493502588670.00610.03612.642.6761FF13.2671.2679439.8413454545680.7080290607720.75376786559369914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 09:00:03FORECAST2020172-11445.329.8237.56183.006508030990.00170.03172.642.6717FF13.371.379439.645711273580.4580263909650.75512495978745914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 05:00:03FORECAST2020172-11445.1229.937.51183.105883177630.00320.03322.642.6732FF13.1267.1279439.6856516521580.5090295662970.74898649702176914111123DRYL
2020-03-19 01:00:03FORECAST2020172-1144530.5537.775183.073492921910.00390.05392.642.6939FF137279439.6726346245680.4924049628970.74484946783251914111123DRYL
2020-03-18 21:00:01FORECAST2020172-11444.5430.137.32183.094645320440.00430.03432.642.6743FF12.5470.5479439.6811354924580.5032615570770.72866712558038914111123DRYL
2020-03-18 17:00:14FORECAST2020172-11444.130.1537.125183.141247645940.00880.04882.642.6888FF12.169.179439.699862736380.5271814512720.7127246649842914111123DRYL
2020-03-18 13:00:14FORECAST2020172-11443.930.1437.02183.252602664780.01140.05142.642.6914FF11.964.979439.7446020122780.5843428265380.70533457711284914111123DRYL
2020-03-18 10:54:00FORECAST2020172-11443.4230.336.86182.84607712940.00870.04872.642.6887FF11.4268.4279439.5812103818380.3756998981080.68725061322687913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-18 10:52:31FORECAST2020172-11443.4230.336.86191.84607712940.00870.04872.642.6887FF11.4268.4279443.1593242515585.0183779009730.68725061322687913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-18 09:00:01FORECAST2020172-1144330.7836.89191.960997375510.00820.04822.642.6882FF116779443.2044860647385.0779751862880.67104692206839913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-18 05:00:03FORECAST2020172-11438.8930.4834.685192.144514955590.00960.05962.642.6996FF6.8959.8979443.2765782008885.1731631095820.4999439197721913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-18 00:59:39FORECAST2020172-11443.5829.9436.76191.8383880.00840.04842.642.6884FF11.5869.5879443.156302076585.0143906223960.6933317519951913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 20:59:42FORECAST2020172-11443.5130.6537.08191.822698666670.01330.07332.642.7133FF11.5169.5179443.1501352769685.0062548633240.69067766072061913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 17:00:03FORECAST2020172-11442.8929.6836.285191.884526666670.02570.08572.642.7257FF10.8968.8979443.1744357703785.0383168385650.66674783480087913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 13:00:02FORECAST2020172-11442.729.3236.01191.923866965040.02660.08662.642.7266FF10.766.779443.1898958505985.0587186114790.65927059089577913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-17 09:00:02FORECAST2020172-11437.9927.3732.68191.781786319970.01250.08252.642.7225FF5.9958.9979443.1340532438884.9850403103210.4613094140479912111122DRYL
2020-03-17 05:00:02FORECAST2020172-11444.7925.2235.005191.736217217870.02040.08042.652.7304FF12.7959.7979443.1161387422584.9614122306260.73752489466122914111123DRYL
2020-03-17 01:00:02FORECAST2020172-11444.7926.635.695191.554465108920.02020.13022.642.7702FF12.7963.7979443.0446662210984.867184057340.73752489466122914112126DRYL
2020-03-16 21:00:02FORECAST2020172-11444.6324.6734.65191.784978112550.05220.16222.632.7922FF12.6358.6379443.1353079500284.9866953360910.73187298889105914112126DRYL
2020-03-16 17:00:02FORECAST2020172-11442.9429.2136.075191.885831093490.04750.09752.632.7275FF10.9458.9479443.1749484130985.0389932960580.66870472285579913112125DRYL
2020-03-16 13:00:02FORECAST2020172-11442.9429.2136.075191.838120412550.04750.10752.632.7375FF10.9461.9479443.1561969014885.0142518627560.66870472285579913112125DRYL
2020-03-16 09:00:02FORECAST2020172-11440.3528.4134.38191.707368956410.16870.23872.632.8687FF8.3559.3579443.1047966036584.9464547288480.56245902247812913112125DRYL
2020-03-16 05:00:02FORECAST2020172-11438.328.3533.325191.521298981770.08480.12482.662.7848FF6.356.379443.0316203543184.8499914202570.47459415988546912112124DRYL
2020-03-16 01:00:01FORECAST2020172-11438.328.3533.325191.487146475370.08480.12482.652.7748FF6.357.379443.0181853475484.8322881488980.47459415988546912112124DRYL
2020-03-15 21:00:02FORECAST2020172-11440.8129.2935.05191.063146627560.21890.28892.632.9189FF8.8167.8179442.8512940368384.6125617267610.581909905593913112125DRYL
2020-03-15 17:00:04FORECAST2020172-11442.3930.2436.315190.660430666670.25830.31832.642.9583FF10.3970.3979442.6926137987184.4039643998150.64693666638569913112125DRYL
2020-03-15 13:00:03FORECAST2020172-11442.4330.2636.345190.790373333330.25830.31832.632.9483FF10.4366.4379442.7438322224184.4712610407430.64853717188596913112125DRYL
2020-03-15 09:00:03FORECAST2020172-11441.9131.1136.51190.500309845050.03760.07762.642.7176FF9.9171.9179442.6294770476484.3210525241290.62753502322134913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-15 05:00:00FORECAST2020172-11440.9231.2336.07500.0950.1252.642.765FF8.9268.9279345.9981085628100.586533530255169131125225DRYL
2020-03-15 01:00:03FORECAST2020172-11440.9631.2736.115190.677075325980.0950.1252.632.755FF8.9672.9679442.6991754301484.4125840202440.58821191392361913112125DRYL
2020-03-14 21:00:03FORECAST2020172-11445.6832.0638.87190.253462868540.03910.08912.632.7191FF13.6877.6879442.5320932512484.1932631715140.76781459696583914111123DRYL
2020-03-14 17:00:04FORECAST2020172-11449.0932.5640.825189.950041295760.00780.04782.642.6878FF17.0985.0979442.4123064823484.0362358860740.86419988275826915111123.5DRYL
2020-03-14 13:00:00FORECAST2020172-11449.3531.6640.505190.103592510120.00580.03582.642.6758FF17.3582.3579442.4729379811884.115695098730.87022091371896915111123.5DRYL
2020-03-14 08:59:54FORECAST2020172-11448.0130.639.305190.395406451980.02330.05332.632.6833FF16.0179.0179442.5880989872684.2667409974890.83716922149393914111123DRYL
2020-03-14 05:00:02FORECAST2020172-11444.5932.138.345190.396839858230.0970.1172.662.777FF12.5977.5979442.5886644538584.267483069090.73045051419846914112126DRYL
2020-03-14 01:00:03FORECAST2020172-11439.4931.435.445191.018535035380.16970.19972.712.9097FF7.4974.4979442.833723938584.5894492109940.52572297538022913112125DRYL
2020-03-13 21:00:05FORECAST2020172-11443.8531.6137.73188.755360524560.06780.10782.662.7678FF11.8577.8579441.9397641623583.4184995146040.70347345908495914112126DRYL
2020-03-13 17:00:02FORECAST2020172-11440.4333.0336.73188.772393529250.06790.08792.652.7379FF8.4376.4379441.9465114538383.4273007790430.5658540272759913111122.5DRYL
2020-03-13 13:00:02FORECAST2020172-11436.931.7934.345189.070732761960.03850.05852.682.7385FF4.972.979442.0646453803583.5814864302190.41503682512814912111122DRYL
2020-03-13 09:00:02FORECAST2020172-11433.9232.8533.385190.657550664180.00280.01282.72.7128FF1.9266.9279442.6914784205184.4024729755570.29605670835996912111122DRYL
2020-03-13 05:00:02FORECAST2020172-11432.8532.232.525191.026790733140.00140.02142.72.7214FF0.8566.8579442.8369755623984.5937262596540.25748938083587912111122DRYL
2020-03-13 01:00:03FORECAST2020172-11432.2332.2332.23191.071285975810.00050.02052.722.7405FF0.2367.2379442.8544994720584.6167787142990.23639829371485911111121.5DRYL