Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 18, 2020

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DAY 170 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/18/2020 10:54:00 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.89°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.11°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.50°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.707 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 40 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.01 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.66 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 2.68 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 182 in SWE DAY: 77 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 439.30 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 79.95 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -115 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-18 10:54:00	FORECAST	2020	170	-115	41.89	29.11	35.5	183.6489852901	0.009	0.019	2.66	2.679	F	F	9.89	39.89	78	439.30222670053	80.677408169233	0.70680245934812	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-18 10:52:31	FORECAST	2020	170	-115	41.89	29.11	35.5	192.6489852901	0.009	0.019	2.66	2.679	F	F	9.89	39.89	78	442.88664579392	85.321662910733	0.70680245934812	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-18 09:00:01	FORECAST	2020	170	-115	40.95	29.18	35.065	192.7379300516	0.0144	0.0244	2.66	2.6844	F	F	8.95	38.95	78	442.92166240788	85.36780438751	0.67042883661669	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-115	38.35	28.62	33.485	192.81127891296	0.011	0.021	2.66	2.681	F	F	6.35	36.35	78	442.95053312927	85.405858787831	0.56210171468952	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-18 00:59:39	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	43.12	27.81	35.465	192.64865733333	0.0112	0.0212	3.79	3.8112	T	F	11.12	33.12	77	442.29634481314	85.207796971693	0.7513721550118	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-17 20:59:42	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	42.73	25.17	33.95	192.63012533333	0.0177	0.0277	3.79	3.8177	T	F	10.73	32.73	77	442.28902017753	85.198189390355	0.737640446837	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-17 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	42.63	27.71	35.17	192.64056666667	0.0104	0.0204	3.79	3.8104	T	F	10.63	32.63	77	442.29314707953	85.203602486184	0.73405804499417	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-17 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	42.31	30.46	36.385	192.67042866699	0.013	0.023	3.79	3.813	T	F	10.31	32.31	77	442.30494933093	85.219084189124	0.72243046586202	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-17 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	39.72	29.34	34.53	192.28970965055	0.0249	0.0349	3.79	3.8249	T	F	7.72	29.72	77	442.15441204949	85.021743513708	0.62033673460143	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	39.23	28.77	34	192.36832615917	0.0167	0.0367	3.79	3.8267	T	F	7.23	25.23	77	442.18550914743	85.062486246529	0.59974694653731	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-17 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	38.14	28.71	33.425	192.260688	0.0632	0.0732	3.79	3.8632	T	F	6.14	29.14	77	442.14293084149	85.006704077922	0.55302088276027	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	37.37	28.55	32.96	192.39423866667	0.0638	0.0638	3.79	3.8538	T	F	5.37	25.37	77	442.19575759055	85.075916123264	0.51952215353511	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	36.6	28.49	32.545	192.341868	0.0213	0.0213	3.79	3.8113	T	F	4.6	27.6	77	442.17504420208	85.04877398481	0.48588490910359	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-03-16 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	36.7	28.14	32.42	192.42746710732	0.0398	0.0398	3.79	3.8298	T	F	4.7	24.7	77	442.20889851131	85.093138272848	0.49025280146564	90	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	DRY	L
2020-03-16 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	37.25	28.01	32.63	191.86783325685	0.045	0.045	3.79	3.835	T	F	5.25	27.25	77	441.98743091688	84.803170696782	0.51428305630024	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	37.5	26.37	31.935	191.9559243007	0.0168	0.0468	3.79	3.8368	T	F	5.5	24.5	77	442.02231264676	84.848801585641	0.52519401091203	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-16 01:00:01	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	37.74	26.49	32.115	191.96280181197	0.021	0.041	3.79	3.831	T	F	5.74	25.74	77	442.02503563138	84.852364310837	0.53565088235202	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-15 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	41.37	29.29	35.33	191.51503466667	0.0165	0.0165	3.79	3.8065	T	F	9.37	34.37	77	441.84765373269	84.620468722001	0.68690798615015	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-15 17:00:04	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	42.42	29.58	36	191.49404266667	0.0086	0.0186	3.79	3.8086	T	F	10.42	35.42	77	441.83933284969	84.60960005653	0.72645529285669	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-15 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	37.94	29.41	33.675	191.62950666667	0.0075	0.0075	3.79	3.7975	T	F	5.94	30.94	77	441.89302074236	84.679741564301	0.54434647841079	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-15 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	39.46	28.7	34.08	191.43281384505	0.0329	0.0429	3.79	3.8329	T	F	7.46	33.46	77	441.81506021898	84.577900176841	0.60944992698353	90	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-03-15 05:00:00	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	43.08	26.6	34.84	0	0.0116	0.0116	3.8	3.8116	T	F	11.08	33.08	77	344.07636079638	0	0.74998158604212	90	4	1	1	1	5	2	15	DRY	L
2020-03-15 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	43.12	25.54	34.33	191.45744199265	0.0115	0.0115	3.79	3.8015	T	F	11.12	37.12	77	441.82482388425	84.590650589731	0.7513721550118	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	44.19	28.35	36.27	191.38571886854	0.015	0.015	3.79	3.805	T	F	12.19	37.19	77	441.79638802811	84.553519316287	0.78699777823994	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 17:00:04	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	44.89	29.79	37.34	191.34994529576	0.0269	0.0269	3.8	3.8269	T	F	12.89	38.89	77	441.7822030485	84.535000385971	0.80860118703711	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 13:00:00	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	44.38	29.91	37.145	191.49245384345	0.0288	0.0288	3.8	3.8288	T	F	12.38	35.38	77	441.83870304828	84.608777449724	0.7929976689144	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 08:59:54	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	44.35	29.83	37.09	191.77781711865	0.0341	0.0341	3.79	3.8241	T	F	12.35	32.35	77	441.95177883697	84.756547417057	0.7920570085029	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	45.45	30.44	37.945	191.61546919157	0.0093	0.0093	3.82	3.8293	T	F	13.45	36.45	77	441.88745818521	84.672472630028	0.82488048744007	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-03-14 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	47.16	29.59	38.375	191.89527903538	0.0082	0.0082	3.87	3.8782	T	F	15.16	40.16	77	441.99829955831	84.817387026905	0.86898145922612	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-13 21:00:05	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	47.67	28.82	38.245	189.69311252456	0.0122	0.0122	3.82	3.8322	T	F	15.67	38.67	77	441.1238195156	83.678150332636	0.88050607699629	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-13 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	47.82	30.5	39.16	189.50447869419	0.0031	0.0031	3.81	3.8131	T	F	15.82	40.82	77	441.04868535728	83.58070119739	0.88375571127398	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-13 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	48.24	33.41	40.825	189.58136090072	0.004	0.004	3.84	3.844	T	F	16.24	41.24	77	441.07931241767	83.620416313294	0.89252065735641	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-13 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	48.43	33.86	41.145	191.28552775919	0.0041	0.0041	3.86	3.8641	T	F	16.43	37.43	77	441.75665687992	84.501655252411	0.89632578690988	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-13 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	48.88	32.1	40.49	191.50819662862	0.0114	0.0114	3.86	3.8714	T	F	16.88	39.88	77	441.84494329577	84.616928280047	0.90494724087682	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-13 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	48.93	32.15	40.54	191.54882125704	0.0114	0.0214	3.87	3.8914	T	F	16.93	40.93	77	441.86104524888	84.637962376827	0.90587168647238	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-12 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	50.52	31.16	40.84	191.90182305213	0.0018	0.0018	3.88	3.8818	T	F	18.52	37.52	77	442.00089090406	84.820776755154	0.93192890719632	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-12 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	51.61	30.98	41.295	192.14459675644	0.0013	0.0013	3.97	3.9713	T	F	19.61	41.61	77	442.09699570844	84.946548967631	0.94630827052018	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-03-12 13:00:01	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	51.66	31.01	41.335	192.53078120981	0.0013	0.0013	4.02	4.0213	T	F	19.66	37.66	77	442.24974927059	85.146689716908	0.94690537658533	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-12 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	47.5	32.52	40.01	192.91661679254	0.002	0.002	4.1	4.102	T	F	15.5	32.5	77	442.40221527752	85.346738632863	0.87674653638635	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-12 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	49.73	32.75	41.24	192.82314862469	0.002	0.002	4.09	4.092	T	F	17.73	37.73	77	442.36529429868	85.298268888957	0.91977561525447	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-12 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	49.78	32.77	41.275	192.47792309847	0.002	0.002	4.03	4.032	T	F	17.78	38.78	77	442.22885032684	85.119290645134	0.92059027311455	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 21:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	47.82	30.19	39.005	192.83781802563	0.0021	0.0021	4.05	4.0521	T	F	15.82	35.82	77	442.37108945715	85.305875648539	0.88375571127398	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 17:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	47.45	29.78	38.615	193.68646965864	0.0011	0.0011	4.19	4.1911	T	F	15.45	33.45	77	442.7059826381	85.746158873933	0.87562523029797	90	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 13:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	41.89	29.22	35.555	194.39867300792	0.0011	0.0011	4.18	4.1811	T	F	9.89	22.89	77	442.98647429274	86.115982762967	0.70680245934812	90	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-11 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	26.77	25.09	25.93	196.02671450447	0.0016	0.0016	4.42	4.4216	T	F	-5.23	2.77	77	443.62575394554	86.962499015513	0.13298416252917	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	26.52	24.42	25.47	196.55214336269	0.0002	0.0002	4.51	4.5102	T	F	-5.48	-0.48	77	443.83150937353	87.236034459267	0.1271827224509	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-03-11 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	170	-116	26.55	26.55	26.55	196.63594477665	0	0	4.58	4.58	T	F	-5.45	0.55	77	443.86430022324	87.279676027024	0.12786947490808	90	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L