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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, March 16, 2020

[ Sunday, March 15, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, March 17, 2020 ]

DAY 168 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/16/2020 09:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.39°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.867
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 13
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 19

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.04 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.96 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 189 in
SWE DAY: 75
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 441.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 83.47 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -117

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-16 09:00:02FORECAST2020168-11745.3930.5537.97192.514560.0030.0433.964.003TF13.3919.3976441.6507154676485.0241931619370.86688558072476885111123.5WETL
2020-03-16 05:00:02FORECAST2020168-11742.2328.2935.26192.587922666670.01520.05523.964.0152TF10.2316.2376441.6798284300985.0622006411210.76429042001898884111123WETL
2020-03-16 01:00:01FORECAST2020168-11847.0126.9937192.498870666670.00830.04833.964.0083TF15.0121.0175441.0495881296984.9015476229640.90536265465519885111123.5WETL
2020-03-15 21:00:02FORECAST2020168-11847.329.5638.43192.4100920.00430.04433.964.0043TF15.321.375441.0142147166384.8555856269340.91128584231483885111123.5WETL
2020-03-15 17:00:04FORECAST2020168-11847.3329.0438.185192.431193333330.00660.04663.964.0066TF15.3321.3375441.0226231593984.8665096615580.91188251878897885111123.5WETL
2020-03-15 13:00:03FORECAST2020168-11847.4628.137.78192.427913333330.0040.0443.964.004TF15.4621.4675441.0213161771484.8648116074880.91443368822896885111123.5WETL
2020-03-15 09:00:03FORECAST2020168-11847.4727.2337.35192.382045845050.00110.04113.964.0011TF15.4721.4775441.0030382092184.8410667145720.91462762474352885111123.5WETL
2020-03-15 05:00:00FORECAST2020168-11846.5526.7336.6400.00130.05133.964.0113TF14.5517.5575342.1399521059800.895379472254818851115217.5WETM
2020-03-15 01:00:03FORECAST2020168-11846.6326.4136.52192.445572771440.00090.04093.964.0009TF14.6320.6375441.0283528084284.8739539646610.89716821572938885111123.5WETL
2020-03-14 21:00:03FORECAST2020168-11845.4125.1835.295192.505237535210.00140.04143.964.0014TF13.4119.4175441.052124669984.9048440249890.86741808371796885111123.5WETL
2020-03-14 17:00:04FORECAST2020168-11845.3126.4935.9192.51543862910.0010.0513.964.011TF13.3119.3175441.056188667884.9101256214590.86474090306114885111123.5WETL
2020-03-14 13:00:00FORECAST2020168-11844.8426.6735.755192.532104510120.00110.05113.964.0111TF12.8417.8475441.0628279356484.9187544836330.85166508804454885111123.5WETL
2020-03-14 08:59:54FORECAST2020168-11844.7126.8735.79192.690203785320.00080.04083.964.0008TF12.7118.7175441.1257967333385.0006196675050.84790425269082884111123WETL
2020-03-14 05:00:02FORECAST2020168-11845.0826.6435.86192.80769452490.00160.07163.964.0316TF13.0816.0875441.172575326485.0614671362960.8584439117014885111123.5WETL
2020-03-14 01:00:03FORECAST2020168-11843.4825.6534.565193.142663035380.00280.12283.964.0828TF11.4817.4875441.3058654454885.2349900652710.8092254174373884112126WETL
2020-03-13 21:00:05FORECAST2020168-11842.7123.4533.08190.945963191230.00270.07273.964.0327TF10.7115.7175440.4296879610684.0982709857350.78219832200116884111123WETL
2020-03-13 17:00:02FORECAST2020168-11843.4123.7933.6190.862680807070.00360.06363.964.0236TF11.4117.4175440.396373599984.0552324829890.80685676670179884111123WETL
2020-03-13 13:00:01FORECAST2020168-11841.8325.2733.55191.184460765330.00080.09083.964.0508TF9.8315.8375440.5250520431684.2215445284910.74876842077572884112126WETL
2020-03-13 09:00:02FORECAST2020168-11838.3823.8131.095192.977723157250.00160.11163.964.0716TF6.3811.3875441.2402470127385.1495382338620.5961090990489883112125WETL
2020-03-13 05:00:02FORECAST2020168-11842.422.8332.615192.990558993270.00140.11143.964.0714TF10.414.475441.2453545110885.1561876202740.77072380898019884112126WETL
2020-03-13 01:00:03FORECAST2020168-11842.4422.4932.465193.038785438210.00860.11863.974.0886TF10.4415.4475441.2645427732785.1811713938990.77222313732071884112126WETL
2020-03-12 21:00:02FORECAST2020168-11841.8922.4432.165193.507154632050.00160.17163.924.0916TF9.898.8975441.4507745612585.4238832954590.75113061487429884112126WETL
2020-03-12 17:00:02FORECAST2020168-11841.5120.7631.135193.757674803510.00170.17174.014.1817TF9.5112.5175441.5502948588885.553758440660.73597279680559884112126WETL
2020-03-12 13:00:01FORECAST2020168-11841.5420.7931.165194.150081963730.00170.14174.094.2317TF9.548.5475441.7060531919585.7572664310950.73718632195278884112126WETL
2020-03-12 09:00:03FORECAST2020168-11843.8722.1232.995194.408618951360.00180.21184.14.3118TF11.877.8775441.80858957985.89139774090.82209399370253884112126WETL
2020-03-12 05:00:01FORECAST2020168-11844.8922.6633.775194.472574486710.00180.20184.14.3018TF12.899.8975441.8339441102485.9245846067350.85309490349954885112127WETL
2020-03-12 01:00:01FORECAST2020168-11844.9322.6833.805194.13427047760.00180.10184.144.2418TF12.9310.9375441.6997801335985.7490645863490.85423209702516885112127WETL
2020-03-11 21:00:03FORECAST2020168-11842.2320.9631.595194.065317623160.00220.11224.154.2622TF10.2313.2375441.672420792285.7132986264270.76429042001898884112126WETL
2020-03-11 17:00:03FORECAST2020168-11842.0821.5931.835194.739815646480.00220.11224.294.4022TF10.0812.0875441.9398446393286.0632838718950.75853234320079884112126WETL
2020-03-11 13:00:02FORECAST2020168-11841.6121.1731.39195.085205507420.00220.13224.264.3922TF9.616.6175442.0766069636186.2426057195210.74000676026667884112126WETL
2020-03-11 09:00:02FORECAST2020168-11838.8619.6629.26196.426269497670.00130.21134.424.6313TF6.863.8675442.6064856065386.9395408231640.61895611077753883112125WETL
2020-03-11 05:00:03FORECAST2020168-11835.4518.927.175196.898052696030.00130.22134.54.7213TF3.453.4575442.7924669229487.1849744855980.4523950848192882112124WETL
2020-03-11 01:00:03FORECAST2020168-11835.518.9227.21196.986030109980.00130.24134.554.7913TF3.53.575442.8271237880487.2307571400280.4548489568576882112124WETL
2020-03-10 21:00:02FORECAST2020168-11835.1216.3325.725196.57898470870.00340.24344.384.6234TF3.124.1275442.6667117568587.01897276150.43624942060205882112124WETL
2020-03-10 17:00:03FORECAST2020168-11830.5416.5823.56196.739827082080.00930.27934.374.6493TF-1.460.5475442.7301177539387.1026468109380.23337229518895881112123WETL
2020-03-10 12:59:15FORECAST2020168-11830.5816.6123.595197.368657780860.00930.27934.384.6593TF-1.42-4.4275442.9777619160687.4299262961420.23489199193548881112123WETL
2020-03-10 09:00:02FORECAST2020168-11835.4219.7327.575199.065693675050.00470.52474.464.9847TF3.4210.4275443.644112582788.3143230161250.45092362777985882113126WETL
2020-03-10 05:00:03FORECAST2020168-11834.3318.2326.28199.165608288940.00470.59474.415.0047TF2.335.3375443.683255155988.3664454007420.39807517228048882113126WETL
2020-03-10 01:00:03FORECAST2020168-11836.7116.8826.795198.946181437910.00180.70184.325.0218TF4.719.7175443.5972793905588.2519848309960.51453716931899883113127.5WETL
2020-03-09 21:00:02FORECAST2020168-11837.8215.8826.85200.1989499234900.684.294.97TF5.824.8275444.0874952231788.9058502178320.56903921606939883113127.5WETL
2020-03-09 17:00:02FORECAST2020168-11839.4717.0628.265199.44882088900.714.244.95TF7.4711.4775443.7941526217388.5142204578380.64739390989031883113127.5WETL
2020-03-09 13:00:03FORECAST2020168-11829.7917.0823.435199.6289841422400.714.254.96TF-2.213.7975443.864657583988.6082506901170.20590669397522881113124.5WETL
2020-03-09 09:00:03FORECAST2020168-11816.5614.9215.74194.781520238840.00020.22024.084.3002TF-15.44-10.4475441.9563645712886.0849325704240.0068471269237847881112123WETL
2020-03-09 05:00:02FORECAST2020168-11821.820.3121.055194.1795349076400.264.014.27TF-10.214.875441.7177376986385.7725448667770.034965692539322881112123WETL
2020-03-09 01:00:03FORECAST2020168-11820.5520.5520.55194.1273967467200.264.014.27TF-11.4514.5575441.6970529669785.7454990431770.024538360733476881112123WETL