Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, March 11, 2020

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DAY 163 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 03/11/2020 09:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.40°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.61°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.01°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.306 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -17 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.03 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.68 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.74 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 185 in SWE DAY: 70 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 438.08 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 81.04 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -122 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 2.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-03-11 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-122	31.4	24.61	28.005	191.08689069708	0.0252	0.0552	4.68	4.7352	T	F	-0.6	-16.6	71	438.07507623814	83.710404210231	0.30647019964502	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-03-11 05:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-122	33.15	24.79	28.97	191.24608858149	0.088	0.118	4.68	4.798	T	F	1.15	-14.85	71	438.13969039942	83.792502041193	0.38379473317678	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-11 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	31.91	24.5	28.205	191.40657148318	0.1406	0.1706	4.69	4.8606	T	F	-0.09	-14.09	70	437.59680345302	83.758903840941	0.32831269364286	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-10 21:00:01	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	32.34	24.27	28.305	191.50427632525	0.1708	0.2008	4.69	4.8908	T	F	0.34	-13.66	70	437.63658100921	83.809276739628	0.3472000963469	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-10 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	32.68	24.8	28.74	191.42387811378	0.1482	0.1782	4.69	4.8682	T	F	0.68	-13.32	70	437.60385004099	83.767826052367	0.36241056474722	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-10 12:59:15	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	31.7	25.14	28.42	191.38926682552	0.1494	0.1794	4.69	4.8694	T	F	-0.3	-14.3	70	437.58975735865	83.749982831231	0.31924195544076	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-10 09:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	32.75	25.81	29.28	191.3581943789	0.1717	0.2017	4.69	4.8917	T	F	0.75	-11.25	70	437.57710453145	83.733964624684	0.36557021272047	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-10 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	32.97	26.04	29.505	191.39623857768	0.161	0.191	4.69	4.881	T	F	0.97	-15.03	70	437.59259614745	83.753576932062	0.37555914016515	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-10 01:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	35.47	26.1	30.785	191.20131539733	0.1591	0.1991	4.69	4.8891	T	F	3.47	-8.53	70	437.51320751858	83.653100781258	0.49334959421624	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-09 21:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	31.51	25.44	28.475	191.40586808933	0.1845	0.2145	4.69	4.9045	T	F	-0.49	-11.49	70	437.59651705181	83.758541219171	0.31112704601743	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-09 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	31.58	25.55	28.565	191.45603195252	0.1914	0.2214	4.69	4.9114	T	F	-0.42	-11.42	70	437.61694101326	83.784403041597	0.31410636495976	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-09 13:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	34.43	25.67	30.05	191.37383993068	0.2019	0.2319	4.69	4.9219	T	F	2.43	-8.57	70	437.58347558887	83.742030013655	0.44366786637946	91	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-03-09 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	37.08	27.17	32.125	190.96720816883	0.149	0.169	4.69	4.859	T	F	5.08	-4.92	70	437.41780798057	83.532457593377	0.57018575508166	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-09 05:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	37.61	28.5	33.055	190.9832417522	0.123	0.133	4.69	4.823	T	F	5.61	-4.39	70	437.42434353319	83.540719149294	0.59504877737281	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-09 01:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	37.99	29.37	33.68	190.85249001964	0.1054	0.1154	4.69	4.8054	T	F	5.99	-3.01	70	437.37103920815	83.473351895352	0.61264791992859	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-08 20:59:54	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	37.96	28.85	33.405	190.70056928417	0.063	0.073	4.69	4.763	T	F	5.96	-4.04	70	437.30908255346	83.395090996081	0.61126638281633	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-08 17:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	38.23	29.04	33.635	190.67542248682	0.0654	0.0754	4.69	4.7654	T	F	6.23	-2.77	70	437.29882482383	83.382138176274	0.62364755215711	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-08 13:00:22	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	38.82	28.97	33.895	190.81498035148	0.085	0.095	4.69	4.785	T	F	6.82	-2.18	70	437.3557441539	83.454027727331	0.65024880947484	91	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-03-08 09:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	32.28	27.08	29.68	190.97170269307	0.0583	0.0683	4.69	4.7583	T	F	0.28	-9.72	70	437.41964004952	83.534773451647	0.34454042370249	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-03-08 05:00:01	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	37.52	27.38	32.45	190.72286409562	0.028	0.028	4.69	4.718	T	F	5.52	-8.48	70	437.31817637031	83.40657511842	0.59085079477907	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	37.55	27.41	32.48	190.71131124256	0.0294	0.0294	4.69	4.7194	T	F	5.55	-3.45	70	437.3134641485	83.400624171786	0.59225130569944	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-07 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	39.69	28.01	33.85	189.57322522464	0.0334	0.0334	4.86	4.8934	T	F	7.69	9.69	70	436.8485788619	82.814794029652	0.68813389399468	91	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-03-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	39.99	28.83	34.41	189.57546471994	0.0351	0.0351	4.87	4.9051	T	F	7.99	10.99	70	436.849494971	82.815946021801	0.70077443268085	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	40.01	28.85	34.43	190.28660276579	0.0351	0.0351	4.87	4.9051	T	F	8.01	10.01	70	437.14013641975	83.181911491888	0.70160881905765	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	43.93	28.7	36.315	190.10580010624	0.0031	0.0031	4.87	4.8731	T	F	11.93	7.93	70	437.06629230536	83.08883719818	0.84143225504967	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	43.68	28.54	36.11	190.67616314335	0.004	0.014	4.97	4.984	T	F	11.68	11.68	70	437.29912695734	83.382519674162	0.83404924454562	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	43.7	28.56	36.13	192.39823290931	0.004	0.004	4.79	4.794	T	F	11.7	10.7	70	438.00007026267	84.270439532692	0.8346479132789	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	44.59	27.34	35.965	191.38202062087	0.0013	0.0013	4.89	4.8913	T	F	12.59	7.59	70	437.5868067638	83.746247275491	0.85987557202245	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	45.26	27.77	36.515	191.0852630478	0.0014	0.0014	4.88	4.8814	T	F	13.26	15.26	70	437.46592285898	83.593290943956	0.87705337118912	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-06 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	45.28	27.78	36.53	191.58875013488	0.0014	0.0114	4.86	4.8714	T	F	13.28	13.28	70	437.67096399674	83.852832962462	0.87754245757819	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-06 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	46.42	28.94	37.68	191.92645692726	0.0016	0.0116	4.92	4.9316	T	F	14.42	9.42	70	437.8083455689	84.027004578222	0.90320329645458	91	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-03-06 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	40.68	26.42	33.55	192.4330331572	0.039	0.049	5.03	5.079	T	F	8.68	4.68	70	438.01420361329	84.288401767241	0.72892771191598	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 23:59:56	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	40.68	26.42	33.55	196.41208234073	0.039	0.049	5.27	5.319	T	F	8.68	11.68	70	439.62199647585	86.34707177061	0.72892771191598	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	41.67	28.33	35	196.73276523911	0.0308	0.0508	5.29	5.3408	T	F	9.67	11.67	70	439.75086688828	86.513404059227	0.76687361484705	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	41	27.56	34.28	195.82315066154	0.0218	0.0218	5.2	5.2218	T	F	9	8	70	439.38505337685	86.041765505846	0.74152099402993	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 11:59:55	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	41	27.56	34.28	195.75281242942	0.0218	0.0218	5.18	5.2018	T	F	9	8	70	439.35673070765	86.005315695817	0.74152099402993	91	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-03-05 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	41.94	28.64	35.29	195.81310863074	0.0345	0.1445	5.14	5.2845	T	F	9.94	4.94	70	439.38101012287	86.036561465473	0.77668677916759	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-05 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	40.87	27.19	34.03	195.99047972459	0.1	0.25	5.15	5.4	T	F	8.87	2.87	70	439.45241042197	86.128488734729	0.73644170456085	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	40.87	27.19	34.03	194.57572093152	0.1	0.25	5.1	5.35	T	F	8.87	6.87	70	438.8820067603	85.395782869259	0.73644170456085	91	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-04 19:59:56	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	34.48	24.3	29.39	197.33423041842	0.193	0.823	5.09	5.913	T	F	2.48	-1.52	70	439.99229026711	86.825539989897	0.4460425144114	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-04 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	33.63	23.67	28.65	198.0290919195	0.1409	0.7309	5.19	5.9209	T	F	1.63	-8.37	70	440.27074339722	87.186415513676	0.40600478057022	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-04 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	31.72	23.67	27.695	198.22455985903	0.1066	0.6966	5.21	5.9066	T	F	-0.28	-10.28	70	440.34898509619	87.287983755063	0.32010130211455	91	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-03-04 07:59:35	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	33.11	29.91	31.51	194.77274758173	0.002	0.012	5.29	5.302	T	F	1.11	9.11	70	438.9615670384	85.497750494852	0.38195991376359	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-03-04 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	33.54	30.66	32.1	195.58502580743	0.001	0.011	5.39	5.401	T	F	1.54	9.54	70	439.28914865112	85.918379475852	0.40181492200033	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-03-04 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	163	-123	30.65	30.65	30.65	195.85203846209	0.0002	0.0102	4.96	4.9702	T	F	-1.35	7.65	70	439.39668398648	86.056736252235	0.27557547764874	91	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L