Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 7, 2020

[ Thursday, February 6, 2020 | Index | Today | Saturday, February 8, 2020 ]

DAY 130 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.90°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.90°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.90°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.365 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 4 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 3.28 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 10.87 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 16.53 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 27.40 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 165 in SWE DAY: 38 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 390.15 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 64.37 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -155 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-08 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	131	-155	26.6	26.6	26.6	137.19900640501	0.0459	0.2459	15.32	15.5659	T	T	-5.4	-4.4	38	390.14609800102	53.527656998532	0.14598547651822	88	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	35.91	26.5	31.205	136.84394977814	1.0237	1.2237	15.32	16.5437	T	T	3.91	4.91	38	389.95865191503	53.363482178212	0.5763163430715	88	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-07 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.65	26.64	31.645	136.72481117716	1.2745	1.4745	15.32	16.7945	T	T	4.65	5.65	38	389.89571683616	53.308418263208	0.61467430119873	88	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-07 04:01:16	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	33.92	26.63	30.275	1.4349021250185	1.6767	1.8767	15.32	17.1967	T	T	1.92	2.92	38	304.60027434325	0.43707158093636	0.47055714339803	88	2	1	1	5	4	2	40	WET	L
2020-02-07 00:01:13	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	35.94	27.33	31.635	136.30204895958	2.1793	2.3793	15.32	17.6993	T	T	3.94	4.94	38	389.67223853622	53.113124535154	0.57788820504453	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	34.34	27.4	30.87	136.82980561173	2.2153	4.5853	15.32	19.9053	T	T	2.34	6.34	38	389.95118124197	53.356944327402	0.49295693099932	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-06 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.17	27.4	31.785	136.99557167213	2.3633	4.7333	15.32	20.0533	T	T	4.17	8.17	38	390.03871878741	53.433577254547	0.58989617936863	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.18	27.41	31.795	136.90505938378	2.295	4.665	15.32	19.985	T	T	4.18	8.18	38	389.99092573321	53.391730846642	0.59041644429813	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	34.12	27.46	30.79	136.47559795037	2.0253	5.0453	15.32	20.3653	T	T	2.12	10.12	38	389.76400811141	53.193276066537	0.48121645297857	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	37.32	27.49	32.405	1.8016425148476	2.0952	5.9452	15.32	21.2652	T	T	5.32	10.32	38	304.87336186372	0.54927281037819	0.64847220829656	88	3	1	1	5	4	2	50	WET	H
2020-02-06 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.44	27.69	32.065	136.47562390616	2.1421	6.6121	15.32	21.9321	T	T	4.44	11.44	38	389.76402183334	53.193288055879	0.60388490942056	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	37.27	27.21	32.24	136.74254699382	2.2667	8.2867	15.32	23.6067	T	T	5.27	16.27	38	389.9050870047	53.316614682868	0.64598632206033	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.09	27.01	31.55	137.2563249869	2.3252	8.4252	15.32	23.7452	T	T	4.09	13.09	38	390.1763425233	53.554170871577	0.58572843706768	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	35.87	27.54	31.705	137.35770472696	2.2159	8.3559	15.32	23.6759	T	T	3.87	12.87	38	390.22982542177	53.601073135937	0.5742186411336	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	34.39	27.57	30.98	137.92190559286	2.0546	8.3246	15.32	23.6446	T	T	2.39	14.39	38	390.52721821699	53.862258122364	0.49562643851084	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	35.66	29.07	32.365	3.6825777338394	1.6207	8.5307	15.32	23.8507	T	T	3.66	13.66	38	306.26997985767	1.1278630083673	0.563172569398	88	3	1	1	5	4	2	50	WET	H
2020-02-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.81	29.59	33.2	139.60568131642	1.4674	8.8774	15.32	24.1974	T	T	4.81	13.81	38	391.41221430614	54.643368853775	0.62283612739904	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 20:01:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	33.74	30	31.87	137.31605220391	0.8171	8.0871	16.03	24.1171	T	T	1.74	11.74	38	390.20785329319	53.581801953185	0.460981550839	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	34.15	26.72	30.435	137.38463336466	0.9876	8.1876	16.03	24.2176	T	T	2.15	12.15	38	390.24402931423	53.613532890083	0.4828166956053	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-04 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	34.14	26.76	30.45	139.26799594597	0.8749	7.9749	16.03	24.0049	T	T	2.14	12.14	38	391.23502945224	54.486518495677	0.48228324936185	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	32.58	29.87	31.225	142.44584344581	0.9006	8.1406	16.02	24.1606	T	T	0.58	9.58	38	392.89645951234	55.966467562106	0.40004929010966	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.7	26.47	32.585	9.1422754737437	0.892	8.022	15.93	23.952	T	T	6.7	15.7	38	310.28628504625	2.8367226936174	0.71427309992753	88	4	1	1	5	3	2	45	WET	H
2020-02-04 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.75	29.43	34.09	137.37737693668	1.08	7.91	15.96	23.87	T	T	6.75	18.75	38	390.24020190384	53.610175312791	0.71654374300172	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-03 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.18	30.76	34.47	137.0818457781	0.6977	6.8877	15.8	22.6877	T	T	6.18	23.18	38	390.08426373431	53.473470881691	0.6901615164373	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.55	30.09	34.32	136.40577275658	0.6488	6.7288	15.72	22.4488	T	T	6.55	23.55	38	389.72709067238	53.161024967341	0.70740980858624	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.74	30.28	34.51	136.23463058993	0.6488	7.0788	15.72	22.7988	T	T	6.74	24.74	38	389.63657800747	53.081995269173	0.71609030624517	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-03 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.27	30.47	34.37	135.45676284333	1.4904	8.2004	15.72	23.9204	T	T	6.27	27.27	38	389.22468768543	52.723116212577	0.69439772910353	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.55	29.93	34.24	2.6252568096787	0.9401	7.3401	15.7	23.0401	T	T	6.55	24.55	38	305.48572706937	0.80197848524851	0.70740980858624	88	4	1	1	5	4	2	60	WET	H
2020-02-03 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.59	29.98	34.285	135.62388318607	0.9401	7.7901	15.77	23.5601	T	T	6.59	28.59	38	389.31324856757	52.800174546516	0.70924748687587	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-02 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	39.46	33.08	36.27	136.03416934539	1.0082	8.3882	15.91	24.2982	T	T	7.46	35.46	38	389.53050919445	52.989459252954	0.74782008743231	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-02 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	35.9	30.56	33.23	137.76599419208	1.4927	8.4427	15.89	24.3327	T	T	3.9	33.9	38	390.44507923047	53.790054517592	0.57579211784731	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	35.95	30.6	33.275	138.54219878365	1.4927	8.1927	15.94	24.1327	T	T	3.95	30.95	38	390.85368605534	54.149729068802	0.57841188479329	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	35.7	29.72	32.71	137.88603689295	1.0328	8.3728	16.03	24.4028	T	T	3.7	29.7	38	390.50832434844	53.845645218112	0.56528065788247	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.73	30.22	33.475	138.72658959356	0.9378	7.8078	16.23	24.0378	T	T	4.73	29.73	38	390.95063404193	54.235248160077	0.6187618151937	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.77	30.26	33.515	146.45122358685	0.9378	7.8978	15.15	23.0478	T	T	4.77	15.77	38	394.97152356965	57.844062908739	0.6208006480305	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-01 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.46	30.2	34.33	148.42292452843	1.9456	9.6956	15.6	25.2956	T	T	6.46	27.46	38	395.98527320156	58.773292318765	0.70325544448898	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-01 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.37	30.76	34.565	147.85127208579	2.1939	11.6539	15.66	27.3139	T	T	6.37	24.37	38	395.69188063169	58.503547905415	0.69907430697657	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-01 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.41	30.79	34.6	148.56977879092	2.1939	11.6539	15.6	27.2539	T	T	6.41	23.41	38	396.06057533372	58.842632065136	0.70093586796859	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-01 10:44:44	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.98	31.65	35.315	144.41955313177	0.8121	8.0021	15.24	23.2421	T	T	6.98	27.98	38	393.92161607898	56.88998376307	0.72687592826181	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-01 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	39.01	31.68	35.345	82.974418016575	0.8121	8.0021	15.78	23.7821	T	T	7.01	34.01	38	359.46787699773	29.826637889541	0.72820973385851	88	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-01 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.25	32.59	35.42	84.164960642011	0.7005	6.4405	16.45	22.8905	T	T	6.25	36.25	38	360.18780148961	30.315192136106	0.69345856556669	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-01 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	38.29	32.63	35.46	101.64908240538	0.7005	6.4405	14.44	20.8805	T	T	6.29	30.29	38	370.51354322528	37.662361687617	0.6953356165782	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 20:00:15	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.72	32.06	34.39	104.93304285526	1.3418	8.6318	14.81	23.4418	T	T	4.72	40.72	38	372.40234423664	39.077311147182	0.61825158920425	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.39	30.85	33.62	103.80467087173	1.3679	7.8979	14.91	22.8079	T	T	4.39	40.39	38	371.75512629311	38.589918529735	0.60130389439832	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	36.43	32.29	34.36	103.55947480422	1.3385	7.8685	14.94	22.8085	T	T	4.43	42.43	38	371.61423984812	38.484175508441	0.60336906655266	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	31.19	29.85	30.52	107.3718953628	0.6802	7.3602	15.52	22.8802	T	T	-0.81	32.19	38	373.79491354799	40.135068344624	0.33023496935414	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-31 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	130	-155	30.46	25.96	28.21	106.097626841	0.1924	7.7024	15.72	23.4224	T	T	-1.54	34.46	38	373.06839048931	39.581670880306	0.29564240046128	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L