Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 6, 2020

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DAY 129 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.70°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 29.30°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.50°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.382 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 11 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 4.22 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 8.41 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.73 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 24.14 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 161 in SWE DAY: 37 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 388.19 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 62.50 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -156 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-07 00:01:13	FORECAST	2020	130	-156	31.39	31.39	31.39	135	0.1091	0.2791	15.26	15.5391	T	T	-0.61	7.39	37	388.18704976426	52.405251718175	0.36112473396284	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-06 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	34.38	33.69	34.035	134.85097866667	2.2813	2.4513	15.26	17.7113	T	T	2.38	10.38	37	388.10765541247	52.336697160398	0.48730085334302	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-06 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	38.21	32.56	35.385	134.73262533333	2.9256	3.0956	15.26	18.3556	T	T	6.21	14.21	37	388.04457868881	52.282264833111	0.6490270712544	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	34.73	33.07	33.9	0	3.7617	3.9317	15.26	19.1917	T	T	2.73	10.73	37	302.40861217265	0	0.50241119316792	88	3	1	1	5	5	2	62.5	WET	H
2020-02-06 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.45	31.71	34.58	134.67746666667	4.3751	4.5451	15.26	19.8051	T	T	5.45	13.45	37	388.01517525221	52.256900831191	0.61807815872322	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.97	32.83	34.9	134.710704	4.3142	6.1042	15.26	21.3642	T	T	4.97	16.97	37	388.03289357447	52.272184268574	0.59812051620977	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	34.68	32.73	33.705	134.78849466667	4.389	6.179	15.26	21.439	T	T	2.68	14.68	37	388.0743567614	52.307958366604	0.50025227927512	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	34.66	33.15	33.905	134.93943618195	4.4292	6.2192	15.26	21.4792	T	T	2.66	14.66	37	388.1547866997	52.377388068584	0.49938870810871	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.02	33.3	34.66	135.39446551839	4.0387	6.3487	15.26	21.6087	T	T	4.02	18.02	37	388.39706483536	52.586813002294	0.55790671984125	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.54	33.6	34.57	1.8408917172838	3.9266	6.9866	15.26	22.2466	T	T	3.54	15.54	37	303.78706475896	0.55923909133271	0.5373312024725	88	3	1	1	5	4	2	50	WET	H
2020-02-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.39	33.63	34.51	138.02343773028	4.0314	7.4914	15.26	22.7514	T	T	3.39	15.39	37	389.79137890879	53.800346114617	0.53087816949911	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 20:01:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.05	33.24	34.145	134.96988369424	3.9859	8.0559	15.26	23.3159	T	T	3.05	16.05	37	388.17100707117	52.391395677871	0.51622387612119	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.23	32.97	34.1	135.21176140214	3.831	7.991	15.26	23.251	T	T	3.23	16.23	37	388.29981856915	52.502702420865	0.52398602397382	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.44	32.9	34.17	137.12206171991	3.8129	7.8929	15.26	23.1529	T	T	3.44	16.44	37	389.31436940045	53.383588989374	0.53303016640014	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.13	32.02	33.575	140.10605961525	3.693	8.023	15.26	23.283	T	T	3.13	15.13	37	390.88933770913	54.765964852042	0.51967465416959	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.05	32.28	33.665	7.3813948594681	3.6219	7.8219	15.26	23.0819	T	T	3.05	15.05	37	307.89709241945	2.2727100152301	0.51622387612119	88	3	1	1	5	4	2	50	WET	H
2020-02-04 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.8	32.68	35.24	136.98256103289	3.5155	7.5455	15.26	22.8055	T	T	5.8	17.8	37	389.24044779436	53.319153396458	0.63243859834363	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	34.99	32.46	33.725	137.06137754612	2.8462	6.7262	15.28	22.0062	T	T	2.99	22.99	37	389.28221599197	53.355556778067	0.51363498069965	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.2	32.27	33.735	136.51125029985	2.7148	6.5448	15.28	21.8248	T	T	3.2	23.2	37	388.99050576202	53.101580296343	0.52269288480106	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.22	32.79	34.005	136.32236021419	3.089	6.889	15.28	22.169	T	T	3.22	24.22	37	388.89025094583	53.014436873222	0.52355500497575	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.3	33.13	35.215	135.65227447097	3.6034	7.1334	15.32	22.4534	T	T	5.3	27.3	37	388.53420972683	52.705549259226	0.61187228758141	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.27	32.37	34.82	2.9708858585664	3.4491	6.7791	15.34	22.1191	T	T	5.27	24.27	37	304.63001304146	0.90502099783977	0.6106276222331	88	3	1	1	5	4	2	50	WET	H
2020-02-03 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.32	33.15	35.235	135.97288809791	3.8273	7.2673	15.37	22.6373	T	T	5.32	28.32	37	388.70463915653	52.853292403171	0.61270142760982	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.75	33.25	35.5	136.36606465069	4.2165	7.9065	15.4	23.3065	T	T	5.75	33.75	37	388.91345167746	53.034596894972	0.63039787406945	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.75	33.2	35.475	137.24663837515	3.575	7.495	15.36	22.855	T	T	5.75	35.75	37	389.38036060576	53.441145542443	0.63039787406945	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.79	33.25	35.52	138.01045648033	3.575	7.305	15.35	22.655	T	T	5.79	32.79	37	389.7845169602	53.794339114642	0.63203075030359	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.12	33.87	34.995	137.13340564432	4.0172	8.0372	15.35	23.3872	T	T	4.12	32.12	37	389.32037941011	53.388829515247	0.56217556370253	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	38.05	33.54	35.795	138.44541348995	3.8046	7.7046	15.42	23.1246	T	T	6.05	31.05	37	390.01431406988	53.995692978404	0.64258520176765	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-02 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	38.09	33.59	35.84	146.15822696617	3.8046	7.8346	14.3	22.1346	T	T	6.09	17.09	37	394.04727527095	57.593251094452	0.64419956598477	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-01 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.87	32.29	34.58	147.17232625424	4.098	8.788	14.58	23.368	T	T	4.87	26.87	37	394.571685923	58.070032891345	0.59392835846572	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-01 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	34.6	32	33.3	146.44159745339	5.6946	10.5346	14.61	25.1446	T	T	2.6	23.6	37	394.19394772872	57.726391411852	0.49679802798099	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-01 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	34.65	32.05	33.35	147.09924365327	5.6946	10.5246	14.56	25.0846	T	T	2.65	22.65	37	394.533938624	58.035643967136	0.49895692334672	88	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-01 10:44:44	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.47	32.93	34.2	143.82952218765	4.4297	7.8397	14.61	22.4497	T	T	3.47	27.47	37	392.83793166939	56.501692009192	0.53432090531207	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-01 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.51	32.97	34.24	81.935566840495	4.4297	7.7997	15.19	22.9897	T	T	3.51	32.51	37	357.92773546215	29.327011893026	0.53604132673909	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-01 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.63	32.73	35.18	82.643168096056	3.0847	6.3947	15.82	22.2147	T	T	5.63	35.63	37	358.35865197772	29.615894314071	0.62548522966411	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-01 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.66	32.78	35.22	100.0332949891	3.0847	6.3947	13.81	20.2047	T	T	5.66	29.66	37	368.70913621116	36.883189787786	0.62671533673705	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 20:00:15	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.92	32.44	34.18	103.00563555677	3.9216	8.1316	13.99	22.1216	T	T	3.92	41.92	37	370.43295342056	38.156681798257	0.55363114119134	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.97	32.55	34.26	103.01028466507	3.4657	7.2857	14.17	21.4557	T	T	3.97	41.97	37	370.43563950279	38.15868067527	0.55576974173879	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.02	32.6	34.31	102.76951263537	3.4657	7.2857	14.2	21.4857	T	T	4.02	44.02	37	370.29648863587	38.055189667698	0.55790671984125	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.05	31.88	33.965	102.44626811487	3.9503	7.5303	14.69	22.2203	T	T	4.05	39.05	37	370.1095400669	37.916341173566	0.55918810242675	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	38.58	31.91	35.245	104.3372250677	4.4612	8.0912	15.16	23.2512	T	T	6.58	41.58	37	371.20100137075	38.730082425377	0.66375829666292	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	38.62	31.95	35.285	158.30154615842	4.4612	8.0912	14.38	22.4712	T	T	6.62	42.62	37	400.23893622606	63.358442437387	0.6653364020687	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.11	32.96	34.535	149.31231481754	1.8275	3.9275	14.73	18.6575	T	T	4.11	52.11	37	395.67389312398	59.078984895207	0.56174899632363	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 16:58:03	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.57	33.01	34.79	151.5326497825	1.4166	4.2566	14.95	19.2066	T	T	4.57	46.57	37	396.81116782123	60.129847723238	0.58128898143201	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.58	33.28	34.93	91.580699234021	1.2489	4.0889	14.91	18.9989	T	T	4.58	46.58	37	363.73529952448	33.311133066547	0.58171172594131	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	36.65	34.58	35.615	91.703594390543	0.6003	3.4403	14.75	18.1903	T	T	4.65	47.65	37	363.80838349426	33.362536435837	0.58466826907004	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	37.14	35.89	36.515	95.114834681804	0.1754	4.2854	14.84	19.1254	T	T	5.14	46.14	37	365.82792026597	34.795662158086	0.60522110503977	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	129	-156	35.95	35.47	35.71	100.22888901542	0.092	4.372	15.32	19.692	T	T	3.95	36.95	37	368.82297197568	36.966716724486	0.55491449277616	88	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L