Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 3, 2020

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DAY 126 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 20.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 15.00°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 17.65°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.067 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 94 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -12 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 18 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.29 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.57 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.88 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.45 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 131 in SWE DAY: 34 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 384.17 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 50.33 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -159 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-04 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	127	-159	17.57	17.57	17.57	132.01705363991	0.0028	1.1028	14.88	15.9828	T	T	-14.43	14.57	34	384.16939309569	50.716911375125	0.036655358436944	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-03 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.3	16.74	21.52	132.11362863803	0.0238	1.1238	14.88	16.0038	T	T	-5.7	23.3	34	384.2218148896	50.760938166957	0.19546038948116	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-03 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.05	16.18	21.115	132.28641336986	0.0568	1.1568	14.88	16.0368	T	T	-5.95	23.05	34	384.31557194726	50.839728615089	0.1881801314069	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-03 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	22.59	15.87	19.23	0.4743310470531	0.0802	1.1802	14.88	16.0602	T	T	-9.41	19.59	34	299.3806093114	0.14200551788207	0.10492476640873	92	1	1	1	4	4	2	24	WET	L
2020-02-03 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.02	16.97	21.995	132.59059981569	0.1072	1.2072	14.88	16.0872	T	T	-4.98	24.02	34	384.48053071237	50.978504184609	0.21736149162349	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.75	15.98	21.365	132.62711910055	0.109	1.239	14.88	16.119	T	T	-5.25	29.75	34	384.50032636729	50.995170579315	0.20898757725827	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.9	16.23	21.565	132.42216353326	0.0711	1.2011	14.88	16.0811	T	T	-5.1	29.9	34	384.38920431948	50.901650074815	0.21361611439991	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.68	16.82	21.75	132.50315885881	0.0598	1.1898	14.88	16.0698	T	T	-5.32	29.68	34	384.43312497753	50.938603429488	0.2068479262673	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.83	17.05	21.94	132.49202688549	0.0483	1.1883	14.88	16.0683	T	T	-5.17	29.83	34	384.427089071	50.933524220707	0.21144875372773	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.45	17.22	21.835	133.00908694386	0.0611	1.2611	14.88	16.1411	T	T	-5.55	25.45	34	384.7072659701	51.16956218735	0.19990934628565	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-02 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.16	17.53	22.345	140.78346087377	0.0565	0.1365	14.88	15.0165	T	T	-4.84	10.16	34	388.87586967646	54.747290783349	0.22177856465241	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-01 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.86	16.28	21.57	140.04206269547	0.0443	0.4243	14.88	15.3043	T	T	-5.14	22.86	34	388.48187473885	54.40380305823	0.21237604463602	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-01 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.69	16.39	21.54	140.16204502343	0.0598	0.4498	14.88	15.3298	T	T	-5.31	22.69	34	388.54568625935	54.459357971142	0.20715279597879	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-01 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.14	16.62	21.38	140.99130318383	0.0662	0.3962	14.88	15.2762	T	T	-5.86	22.14	34	388.98618846176	54.843669631734	0.19078156943347	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-01 10:44:44	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.15	16.64	21.395	141.08900065428	0.0536	0.4536	14.88	15.3336	T	T	-5.85	23.15	34	389.03802432128	54.888986068003	0.19107197110482	92	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-01 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	25.91	14.92	20.415	78.788550360569	0.0431	1.0331	14.88	15.9131	T	T	-6.09	27.91	34	353.22843159531	27.830356071532	0.18417710952893	92	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-01 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	25.74	15.95	20.845	78.778206677343	0.0481	1.6581	14.88	16.5381	T	T	-6.26	28.74	34	353.22200326566	27.826195976248	0.17938798122452	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-01 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.34	16.58	21.46	96.09802326068	0.0573	1.8873	12.64	14.5273	T	T	-5.66	22.34	34	363.75262778011	34.955908485547	0.1966408710561	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 20:00:15	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.4	16.59	21.495	96.687247582295	0.0427	1.8527	12.86	14.7127	T	T	-5.6	35.4	34	364.10279760691	35.204097337625	0.19841965295859	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	26.38	15.96	21.17	97.455292306972	0.0433	2.0333	12.86	14.8933	T	T	-5.62	35.38	34	364.55845244718	35.528150546218	0.19782565203532	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.14	16	22.07	97.08865511538	0.0378	2.0578	12.86	14.9178	T	T	-3.86	37.14	34	364.34104994216	35.373382542209	0.25409332566509	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-31 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	21.25	17.23	19.24	98.149582900188	0.0416	2.2516	13.16	15.4116	T	T	-10.75	30.25	34	364.96958720029	35.821612754963	0.081183006015735	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.63	13.2	20.415	99.135040857387	0.0477	2.4177	13.46	15.8777	T	T	-4.37	34.63	34	365.55189766338	36.239002310355	0.23697594491861	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-31 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.66	13.47	20.565	152.79537483454	0.0492	2.2892	12.81	15.0992	T	T	-4.34	34.66	34	395.1569446894	60.378153482288	0.23796501597135	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.84	15.36	22.1	148.64703066068	0.0253	1.9853	13.46	15.4453	T	T	-3.16	40.84	34	393.00938853031	58.419678626801	0.27860129512268	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-30 16:58:03	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	29.14	17.11	23.125	147.97419407617	0.0243	2.0143	13.66	15.6743	T	T	-2.86	37.14	34	392.65893008398	58.103388725989	0.28944568253262	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-30 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	29.15	17.12	23.135	87.996310608053	0.0243	2.0143	13.62	15.6343	T	T	-2.85	37.15	34	358.88434232534	31.580498059628	0.28981054739486	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-30 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	29.19	17.16	23.175	87.991538217565	0.0243	2.0143	13.46	15.4743	T	T	-2.81	38.19	34	358.88144499061	31.578530382466	0.29127215795971	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-30 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.58	17.43	22.505	88.742755680973	0.0943	1.9643	13.6	15.5643	T	T	-4.42	35.58	34	359.33707963389	31.888562665065	0.2353325181246	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.03	15.96	21.495	91.526353708151	0.059	2.499	13.54	16.039	T	T	-4.97	31.03	34	361.01785153577	33.04264757462	0.21767530553763	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-30 00:00:13	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.06	15.99	21.525	152.19298009457	0.059	2.769	12.16	14.929	T	T	-4.94	26.06	34	394.84649361285	60.092864542831	0.21861831132323	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-29 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.99	16.99	22.49	150.15327332266	0.0414	2.9714	12.59	15.5614	T	T	-4.01	37.99	34	393.79177298001	59.129123720483	0.24899251314532	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-29 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.64	16.58	22.11	152.02805015045	0.0376	3.1076	12.66	15.7676	T	T	-4.36	37.64	34	394.76141220006	60.014807771412	0.237305384385	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-29 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.68	16.61	22.145	151.58887725347	0.0376	2.7076	12.62	15.3276	T	T	-4.32	42.68	34	394.53468484277	59.807069912866	0.23862564987236	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-29 09:36:39	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.02	16.27	22.145	156.21481196176	0.0338	3.4238	12.95	16.3738	T	T	-3.98	33.02	34	396.91021826445	62.003255111883	0.25000830417964	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-29 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.04	16.29	22.165	72.182326642024	0.0338	3.6238	13.45	17.0738	T	T	-3.96	36.04	34	349.08825101903	25.198002161948	0.25068671602328	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-29 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.19	16.16	22.175	71.485307354819	0.041	3.681	13.58	17.261	T	T	-3.81	40.19	34	348.64735731537	24.923163496135	0.25580567882786	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-29 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.05	14.28	21.165	111.89638171924	0.041	3.701	12.15	15.851	T	T	-3.95	41.05	34	372.96243328195	41.733146801454	0.25102628666182	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	27.93	13.74	20.835	107.44726562796	0.0449	3.3249	13.54	16.8649	T	T	-4.07	30.93	34	370.40605166359	39.799117423303	0.24696752787349	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-28 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.78	13.68	21.23	106.19741978682	0.0444	2.9344	13.57	16.5044	T	T	-3.22	35.78	34	369.68269988412	39.259348867519	0.27645637234439	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.83	13.68	21.255	107.0534849855	0.0444	2.9344	13.46	16.3944	T	T	-3.17	37.83	34	370.17839774116	39.62888754454	0.27824324650821	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.25	12.99	20.62	113.74119516198	0.0843	3.4543	15.31	18.7643	T	T	-3.75	24.25	34	374.0139859923	42.540797774061	0.25786841458323	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.23	13.53	20.88	114.71577315786	0.141	3.121	15.73	18.851	T	T	-3.77	29.23	34	374.56751433224	42.968802006441	0.25717987964014	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-28 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	28.28	13.53	20.905	143.8876906749	0.141	3.121	14.87	17.991	T	T	-3.72	36.28	34	390.51749098363	56.190659945793	0.25890300511242	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-27 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	30.98	16.69	23.835	138.84678611394	0.0384	3.2484	15.59	18.8384	T	T	-1.02	43.98	34	387.84511466995	53.851047681916	0.359884479052	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-27 16:00:10	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	31.11	18.13	24.62	135.51037617142	0.0897	3.1497	16.22	19.3697	T	T	-0.89	50.11	34	386.0574443915	52.314789513271	0.36508349424795	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-01-27 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	23.67	18.13	20.9	136.14891265473	0.0731	3.1331	16.52	19.6531	T	T	-8.33	46.67	34	386.400749685	52.608041918584	0.12742613817076	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-27 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	17.32	15.69	16.505	148.56788143604	0.1249	1.8149	15.17	16.9849	T	T	-14.68	36.32	34	392.96819337962	58.38245196216	0.034557309025577	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-01-27 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	126	-159	20.5	16.61	18.555	149.05847846923	0.0954	2.4054	14.92	17.3254	T	T	-11.5	36.5	34	393.22340323429	58.613282184597	0.069792636523105	92	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L