Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, February 28, 2020

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DAY 151 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/29/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 42.18°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.49°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 32.34°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.806 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 10 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -21 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.21 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.21 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.25 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.46 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 180 in SWE DAY: 59 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 425.66 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 76.44 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -134 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 4 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-29 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	151	-134	42.18008	22.49006	32.33507	179.5764125	0.21000000000004	0.21000000000004	3.25	3.46	F	F	10.18008	-20.81992	59	425.65539231047	76.437668312394	0.80601067065675	87	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	43.03	28.73	35.88	185.09721242079	0.4266	0.4266	3.25	3.6766	T	F	11.03	-19.97	59	428.05389328124	79.231582412224	0.83118738562281	87	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	43.14	26.07	34.605	184.72346082582	0.3373	0.3373	3.25	3.5873	T	F	11.14	-19.86	59	427.89257687883	79.041797662735	0.83428555072851	87	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-28 03:59:51	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	39.29	26.26	32.775	184.98164472183	0.3612	0.3612	3.25	3.6112	T	F	7.29	-23.71	59	428.00402900469	79.172889232858	0.70484386701063	87	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	43.94	26.13	35.035	184.67869054359	0.3238	0.3238	3.25	3.5738	T	F	11.94	-19.06	59	427.87324312758	79.019070259442	0.855706834727	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-27 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	44.36	26.5	35.43	184.87872084305	0.3535	0.3635	3.25	3.6135	T	F	12.36	-5.64	59	427.95960786361	79.120624874319	0.86617294934287	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-27 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	44.49	26.56	35.525	184.83039972817	0.3458	0.3558	3.25	3.6058	T	F	12.49	-5.51	59	427.93874884217	79.096090007672	0.86930429394908	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	44.52	26.15	35.335	184.54316355872	0.4005	0.4105	3.25	3.6605	T	F	12.52	-5.48	59	427.8147032895	78.95027876198	0.87001968124187	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	44.66	26.09	35.375	184.61254638832	0.3973	0.4073	3.25	3.6573	T	F	12.66	-5.34	59	427.84467518628	78.985494944826	0.87332239656301	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-27 03:59:55	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	44.2	25.93	35.065	184.84201852059	0.4028	0.4228	3.25	3.6728	T	F	12.2	-9.8	59	427.94376461917	79.101989265507	0.86224891449959	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	43.95	25.7	34.825	184.81285839977	0.3978	0.4178	3.25	3.6678	T	F	11.95	-6.05	59	427.93117605431	79.087183844972	0.85596225147822	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	44.76	25.88	35.32	184.56463996144	0.3839	0.4139	3.25	3.6639	T	F	12.76	5.76	59	427.82398120008	78.961179057065	0.87564551157836	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	44.84	25.78	35.31	184.76572609011	0.398	0.418	3.25	3.668	T	F	12.84	4.84	59	427.91082683724	79.063254622403	0.87748249278137	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-26 11:59:56	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	45.93	27.07	36.5	184.75504545704	0.4011	0.4311	3.25	3.6811	T	F	13.93	1.93	59	427.90621517104	79.057832235277	0.90063652778396	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	45.67	27.66	36.665	184.03997605383	0.2599	0.2899	3.25	3.5399	F	F	13.67	5.67	59	427.59717892856	78.694974570696	0.89542665666061	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-26 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	45.59	27.93	36.76	183.63478246363	0.2067	0.2467	3.25	3.4967	F	F	13.59	2.59	59	427.42181444902	78.489511916556	0.8937846234226	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	45.48	27.76	36.62	186.27881061583	0.2827	0.3327	3.22	3.5527	F	F	13.48	0.48	59	428.56288132356	79.832183807047	0.89149663414436	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	46.75	29.44	38.095	185.32582328686	0.2557	0.3357	3.3	3.6357	T	F	14.75	12.75	59	428.15248946298	79.347712602044	0.91582574419031	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	46.31	29.44	37.875	185.18813793738	0.2685	0.3685	3.3	3.6685	T	F	14.31	12.31	59	428.09311484822	79.277766802556	0.9079068648391	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	47.61	28.91	38.26	184.69412266667	0.1846	0.2746	3.3	3.5746	F	F	15.61	13.61	59	427.87990763651	79.026904147619	0.9298157042299	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	40.09	27.57	33.83	185.01869157823	0.3509	0.4609	3.26	3.7209	T	F	8.09	5.09	59	428.0200152961	79.19170319938	0.73509937563169	87	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	48.07	26.97	37.52	184.69792893023	0.2522	0.3522	3.26	3.6122	T	F	16.07	10.07	59	427.88155136742	79.028836365015	0.93652792372311	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	48.09	26.97	37.53	179.68462139233	0.2527	0.3427	3.17	3.5127	F	F	16.09	17.09	59	425.70272733659	76.49223338716	0.93680805018001	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	46.62	28.48	37.55	179.69614655684	0.0746	0.1646	3.14	3.3046	F	F	14.62	20.62	59	425.70776815162	76.498045496158	0.91354101866158	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	46.33	30.32	38.325	179.67638610067	0.0841	0.1541	3.15	3.3041	F	F	14.33	21.33	59	425.69912533822	76.488080406989	0.90827834127573	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	46.35	30.32	38.335	179.75416551102	0.0841	0.1441	3.22	3.3641	F	F	14.35	20.35	59	425.73314193148	76.527305658278	0.90864871014218	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	48.97	31.55	40.26	179.66089721475	0.0349	0.0749	3.19	3.2649	F	F	16.97	11.97	59	425.6923505177	76.480269631465	0.94820984302887	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	48.83	33.6	41.215	179.14446172515	0.0036	0.0836	3.21	3.2936	F	F	16.83	19.83	59	425.46630957585	76.219933011149	0.946513599264	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 23:59:22	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	48.85	33.6	41.225	179.9043011544	0.0036	0.0736	3.2	3.2736	F	F	16.85	16.85	59	425.7987843048	76.60303272275	0.94675857186322	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	47.25	32.26	39.755	176.38617160266	0.0018	0.0618	3.25	3.3118	F	F	15.25	11.25	59	424.25398748745	74.832536640072	0.92419326833413	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	47.28	33.24	40.26	176.19022477452	0.0028	0.0428	3.26	3.3028	F	F	15.28	12.28	59	424.16754149809	74.734174478606	0.92467448056561	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 11:59:23	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	47.3	33.24	40.27	179.90244727807	0.0028	0.0328	3.29	3.3228	F	F	15.3	11.3	59	425.79797390479	76.602097551516	0.92499399720002	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	46.04	33.79	39.915	181.5006413705	0.0037	0.0937	3.84	3.9337	T	F	14.04	11.04	59	426.49519100243	77.409150708376	0.9027828224888	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	46.81	32.82	39.815	180.77818457249	0.0035	0.0835	3.89	3.9735	T	F	14.81	18.81	59	426.18036750742	77.044113138429	0.91686487102342	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	46.85	32.82	39.835	182.84517217576	0.0035	0.1035	4.05	4.1535	T	F	14.85	12.85	59	427.07955857173	78.089435419796	0.9175522620347	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	48.81	32.69	40.75	182.98744794226	0.0008	0.1308	4.03	4.1608	T	F	16.81	26.81	59	427.14127858632	78.161492479307	0.94626773739589	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	49.85	32.53	41.19	182.60309704136	0.0086	0.0886	3.99	4.0786	T	F	17.85	27.85	59	426.97449376585	77.966864919311	0.95791724248805	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-02-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	49.88	32.53	41.205	182.12769705069	0.0086	0.0886	3.88	3.9686	T	F	17.88	28.88	59	426.76797382334	77.726268247435	0.95822033532534	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	DRY	L
2020-02-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	48.8	35.08	41.94	183.06846508528	0.0012	0.0912	4.09	4.1812	T	F	16.8	25.8	59	427.17641430576	78.202530487588	0.94614447237218	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	48.84	33.23	41.035	183.42863140476	0.0012	0.1012	4.05	4.1512	T	F	16.84	26.84	59	427.33252465743	78.385020152655	0.9466361965994	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	48.89	33.23	41.06	186.62248798962	0.0012	0.1012	4.18	4.2812	T	F	16.89	22.89	59	428.71063805679	80.007045901777	0.94724585712032	87	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-02-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	44.14	36.52	40.33	186.51330156892	0.0027	0.0727	4.34	4.4127	T	F	12.14	31.14	59	428.66370967032	79.951483753392	0.86075741738905	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	47.81	33.84	40.825	190.48050123943	0.0015	0.0615	4.42	4.4815	T	F	15.81	35.81	59	430.36048751735	81.97528137595	0.932798041833	87	5	1	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-02-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	41	33.84	37.42	189.7327769542	0.0007	0.0607	4.24	4.3007	T	F	9	29	59	430.04199082546	81.593061126228	0.76749082149085	87	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-21 07:57:22	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	35.09	32.82	33.955	188.8203755467	0	0.03	3.82	3.85	T	F	3.09	21.09	59	429.65252884585	81.127151851263	0.52643586165524	87	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L
2020-02-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	151	-134	38.57	36.63	37.6	187.56492934133	0	0.02	3.65	3.67	F	F	6.57	28.57	59	429.11515936131	80.486954544899	0.6763276635266	87	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	DRY	L