Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 26, 2020

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DAY 149 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/27/2020 12:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.29°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 26.29°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.29°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.218 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 90 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -29 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.18 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.09 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.27 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 184 in SWE DAY: 57 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 426.28 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 78.44 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -136 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 3.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	150	-136	26.29	26.29	26.29	184.00407727358	0.0009	0.1809	3.09	3.2709	F	F	-5.71	-28.71	57	426.28229877284	78.437681043755	0.21795972781462	90	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	DRY	L
2020-02-26 11:59:56	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	36.8	27.95	32.375	183.91136615753	0.0153	0.1953	3.09	3.2853	F	F	4.8	-18.2	57	426.24188040776	78.390726539344	0.64026748151718	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	36.84	27.77	32.305	183.95507209849	0.0341	0.2141	3.09	3.3041	F	F	4.84	-18.16	57	426.26093564834	78.412861149961	0.64188649335978	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-26 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	33.7	27.7	30.7	183.64775155728	0.0398	0.2198	3.09	3.3098	F	F	1.7	-21.3	57	426.12690288877	78.257247593591	0.50935234718316	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	36.27	27.67	31.97	185.95963574255	0.0544	0.2044	3.09	3.2944	F	F	4.27	-22.73	57	427.13263063559	79.42942840675	0.61858804843954	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-25 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	36.73	27.18	31.955	185.89859333333	0.0689	0.2989	3.09	3.3889	F	F	4.73	-11.27	57	427.10615149171	79.398432766322	0.63742816330364	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-25 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	36.71	27.86	32.285	185.902584	0.0942	0.3242	3.09	3.4142	F	F	4.71	-11.29	57	427.10788269948	79.400459040602	0.63661553200834	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-25 12:00:01	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	36.73	28.29	32.51	185.60847733333	0.0799	0.3099	3.09	3.3999	F	F	4.73	-11.27	57	426.9802480371	79.251153689576	0.63742816330364	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	37.28	28.5	32.89	185.55930235852	0.0977	0.2877	3.09	3.3777	F	F	5.28	-12.72	57	426.95889806855	79.226195261364	0.65952186774891	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-25 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	37.52	28.04	32.78	185.50614299382	0.0937	0.2837	3.09	3.3737	F	F	5.52	-16.48	57	426.93581522444	79.199216388207	0.66899914076222	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-25 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	37.74	27.97	32.855	180.58184770628	0.0862	0.1862	3.09	3.2762	F	F	5.74	-10.26	57	424.78401578671	76.708282446858	0.67759276958402	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	38.26	28.02	33.14	180.56615073172	0.0858	0.1558	3.09	3.2458	F	F	6.26	-3.74	57	424.77711346023	76.700368296447	0.69752538963576	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-24 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	38.3	28.18	33.24	180.56224870187	0.0655	0.1455	3.09	3.2355	F	F	6.3	-3.7	57	424.77539760382	76.698400984576	0.6990355690171	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-24 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	38.16	28.52	33.34	180.62188283086	0.0587	0.2087	3.09	3.2987	F	F	6.16	-3.84	57	424.80161892046	76.728468239013	0.69373517730349	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	34.33	28.89	31.61	180.78243854808	0.0427	0.1627	3.09	3.2527	F	F	2.33	-9.67	57	424.8721960426	76.809431671859	0.53652129083408	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-24 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	37.94	27.55	32.745	180.41330234273	0.0757	0.2157	3.09	3.3057	F	F	5.94	-8.06	57	424.70988806351	76.623313443148	0.68532386413555	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 23:59:22	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	38.9	28.1	33.5	181.21340382107	0.0681	0.3281	2.96	3.2881	F	F	6.9	-11.1	57	425.06149760996	77.026840815181	0.72126844059587	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-23 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	37.19	26.37	31.78	177.55877160266	0.0647	0.3747	2.96	3.3347	F	F	5.19	-14.81	57	423.44960844486	75.187192311095	0.65594136793366	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	37.34	26.05	31.695	177.41175144119	0.0398	0.3598	2.96	3.3198	F	F	5.34	-13.66	57	423.38445105889	75.113376995324	0.66190093398295	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 11:59:23	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	36.92	26.15	31.535	181.12495794474	0.0262	0.3762	2.96	3.3362	F	F	4.92	-15.08	57	425.02266464202	76.982212258846	0.64511685205753	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	32.61	25.7	29.155	182.5349893705	0.0943	0.4643	3.49	3.9543	T	F	0.61	-11.39	57	425.64071390407	77.694323188132	0.46231580077219	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-02-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	36.78	26.67	31.725	181.90366190582	0.0822	0.4622	3.53	3.9922	T	F	4.78	-5.22	57	425.36426218159	77.375316934701	0.63945702899094	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	36.8	26.67	31.735	183.97190684243	0.0967	0.4567	3.71	4.1667	T	F	4.8	-11.2	57	426.26827482066	78.421387345189	0.64026748151718	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	39.05	27.94	33.495	184.24975594226	0.126	0.426	3.75	4.176	T	F	7.05	-0.95	57	426.38935889857	78.562135313441	0.72669924470524	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-22 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	39.63	28.44	34.035	183.82823170803	0.0839	0.3239	3.77	4.0939	T	F	7.63	-0.37	57	426.20562899413	78.348627121998	0.74719311772043	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	39.63	28.44	34.035	183.35392505069	0.0839	0.3039	3.68	3.9839	T	F	7.63	0.63	57	425.99865745651	78.108525910976	0.74719311772043	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	40.12	28.68	34.4	184.59586188627	0.0907	0.2707	3.93	4.2007	T	F	8.12	-2.88	57	426.54006920842	78.737531704557	0.7638556170365	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	40.44	28.69	34.565	184.72619940476	0.0957	0.2457	3.92	4.1657	T	F	8.44	-1.56	57	426.59678977452	78.80360365332	0.77440254367115	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	40.46	28.69	34.575	187.92049332296	0.0957	0.2957	4	4.2957	T	F	8.46	-5.54	57	427.98103635264	80.426407484259	0.77505277130027	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	35.98	28.39	32.185	187.96508423559	0.0725	0.2325	4.2	4.4325	T	F	3.98	4.98	57	428.00028044064	80.449108765879	0.6065612692372	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-21 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	39.28	28.22	33.75	191.56026623304	0.062	0.252	4.25	4.502	T	F	7.28	7.28	57	429.54470191282	82.283697457412	0.73492349060348	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	39.3	28.22	33.76	190.50294419613	0.062	0.242	4.08	4.322	T	F	7.3	7.3	57	429.09195959559	81.743281633849	0.73563266331241	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-21 07:57:22	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	41.74	29.13	35.435	189.54314256742	0.0314	0.1614	3.71	3.8714	T	F	9.74	3.74	57	428.67992107653	81.253339396399	0.81441044696769	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-21 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	42.59	29.65	36.12	188.4430644342	0.0246	0.1646	3.53	3.6946	T	F	10.59	6.59	57	428.20642538047	80.692531009111	0.83802596108766	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	42.62	29.66	36.14	190.37809065029	0.0246	0.1846	3.49	3.6746	T	F	10.62	-0.38	57	429.03841734885	81.679514710496	0.83882212290103	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-20 19:59:26	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	46	32.77	39.385	187.28008520781	0.0203	0.2003	3.18	3.3803	F	F	14	24	57	427.70441502502	80.100519289642	0.91247651481619	90	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	46.27	32.39	39.33	186.81728629477	0.0272	0.1872	3.24	3.4272	F	F	14.27	25.27	57	427.50423090633	79.865180297454	0.91704508984144	90	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-20 11:57:11	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	46.3	32.39	39.345	186.58893154332	0.0272	0.1872	3.23	3.4172	F	F	14.3	26.3	57	427.40536910205	79.749111156632	0.91754146318722	90	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	45.61	31.31	38.46	187.70426238959	0.0124	0.4124	3.08	3.4924	F	F	13.61	21.61	57	427.88768671022	80.31634261953	0.90555081510399	90	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	46.41	32.38	39.395	186.07401978458	0.0369	0.2769	2.73	3.0069	F	F	14.41	18.41	57	427.18223740634	79.48751609477	0.91934244050205	90	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	46.45	32.38	39.415	189.76849173253	0.0369	0.2769	2.79	3.0669	F	F	14.45	18.45	57	428.77675271421	81.368317652549	0.91998994832468	90	5	1	1	2	1	2	7	DRY	L
2020-02-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	42.7	28.3	35.5	194.0548649094	0.0025	0.2225	3.17	3.3925	F	F	10.7	16.7	57	430.6080758528	83.561591988511	0.84093274904763	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	41.54	28.83	35.185	196.81741396499	0.0012	0.2112	3.49	3.7012	T	F	9.54	9.54	57	431.77783348546	84.981396594016	0.80855849293035	90	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	DRY	L
2020-02-19 11:59:26	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	33.6	31.51	32.555	196.21883806005	0.0259	0.1859	3.44	3.6259	F	F	1.6	5.6	57	431.52507210269	84.673348241767	0.50503255495094	90	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	DRY	L
2020-02-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	32.95	31.52	32.235	196.67124946047	0.0251	0.1851	3.41	3.5951	F	F	0.95	-1.05	57	431.71614787857	84.906154215541	0.47696215658457	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L
2020-02-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	149	-136	30.45	29.37	29.91	198.82967194728	0.0177	0.4077	3.36	3.7677	T	F	-1.55	2.45	57	432.62474017966	86.018635166199	0.37125611494081	90	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	DRY	L