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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, February 24, 2020

[ Sunday, February 23, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, February 25, 2020 ]

DAY 147 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/25/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.11°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 19.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.104
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -9
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -29

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.15 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.81 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 186 in
SWE DAY: 55
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 425.76 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 79.11 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -138

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 4
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 6.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-25 04:00:03OBSERVATION2020147-13822.7317.1100419.92002185.809995833330.150000000000031.256.567.81TT-9.27-29.2755425.76444057372 79.1112889289850.1037002798946488 1114126WETL
2020-02-25 00:00:03FORECAST2020148-13823.9723.9723.97181.003013636990.00061.10066.567.6606TT-8.03-28.0355423.6498278871776.681895574370.13137246876101881114126WETL
2020-02-24 12:00:02FORECAST2020147-13830.5322.0826.305181.023284272980.02891.12896.567.6889TT-1.47-21.4755423.658799347276.6921072689770.35357305702153882114128WETL
2020-02-24 08:00:03FORECAST2020147-13829.8522.626.225181.103852163440.04671.14676.567.7067TT-2.15-22.1555423.6944528437376.7326975502790.32534203037564882114128WETL
2020-02-24 04:00:04FORECAST2020147-13827.6118.4623.035180.795072310970.0921.1926.567.752TT-4.39-24.3955423.5577696959876.5771576000590.23982166554433881114126WETL
2020-02-23 23:59:22FORECAST2020147-13830.0421.7625.9181.596605076730.20241.17246.567.7324TT-1.96-27.9655423.9123507943976.981043754360.33313836452584882114128WETL
2020-02-23 20:00:02FORECAST2020147-13829.4219.224.31177.867131104190.25761.22766.567.7876TT-2.58-28.5855422.256358362875.1055270524930.30798136912976882114128WETL
2020-02-23 16:00:02FORECAST2020147-13829.7420.5425.14177.721349300160.23571.20576.567.7657TT-2.26-28.2655422.1913079766975.0324089164160.32086275507536882114128WETL
2020-02-23 11:59:23FORECAST2020147-13829.4521.3625.405181.431398731460.25711.22716.567.7871TT-2.55-28.5555423.8393260603376.8977617645230.3091793323545882114128WETL
2020-02-23 08:00:03FORECAST2020147-13829.8821.8525.865182.739218847140.2461.7466.568.306TT-2.12-22.1255424.4165724915577.5575529228860.326568074957288821151210WETL
2020-02-23 04:00:03FORECAST2020147-13829.7421.6525.695182.197922913670.24721.78726.568.3472TT-2.26-20.2655424.1778875266377.2843300532580.320862755075368821151210WETL
2020-02-23 00:00:02FORECAST2020147-13829.7221.3525.535184.266665675010.24851.96856.568.5285TT-2.28-26.2855425.0883347718878.3296100657550.320051108694338821151210WETL
2020-02-22 20:00:02FORECAST2020147-13829.7620.8425.3184.721778145340.22041.98046.568.5404TT-2.24-19.2455425.2879871614178.5599532123060.321675257861568821151210WETL
2020-02-22 16:00:02FORECAST2020147-13829.0520.5724.81184.2863004950.19651.97656.568.5365TT-2.95-17.9555425.0969530968678.3395448379180.293377448123958821151210WETL
2020-02-22 12:00:02FORECAST2020147-13830.0720.5125.29183.791674855330.15781.84786.568.4078TT-1.93-16.9355424.8797157056978.0893545616060.334376089721218821151210WETL
2020-02-22 08:00:02FORECAST2020147-13830.0421.4425.74184.94528011720.1772.1176.568.677TT-1.96-15.9655425.3859503302878.6731237417530.333138364525848821151210WETL
2020-02-22 04:00:04FORECAST2020147-13830.3421.7526.045185.181899737990.152.086.568.64TT-1.66-19.6655425.4896025098678.7929729115360.345595284751368821151210WETL
2020-02-22 00:00:03FORECAST2020147-13829.9321.9625.945188.374043502960.20162.21166.568.7716TT-2.07-24.0755426.8818619208980.4134624281090.328615643187348821151210WETL
2020-02-21 20:00:03FORECAST2020147-13831.3922.5426.965188.501309568920.15922.35926.578.9292TT-0.61-11.6155426.9371355929780.4782091628780.390445273291378821151210WETL
2020-02-21 16:00:01FORECAST2020147-13831.3221.1126.215192.204105577530.18892.43896.579.0089TT-0.68-12.6855428.5375210562282.3666709410240.387401769431568821151210WETL
2020-02-21 12:00:03FORECAST2020147-13832.2321.5726.9191.14624372740.18122.26126.578.8312TT0.23-12.7755428.0818373788981.8262352228970.427440328989238821151210WETL
2020-02-21 07:57:22FORECAST2020147-13825.7721.4523.61190.282730431620.13181.84186.578.4118TT-6.23-18.2355427.7089623977281.3856291951120.17993176345607881115127.5WETL
2020-02-21 04:00:02FORECAST2020147-13831.8221.4726.645189.157091443450.14151.67156.578.2415TT-0.18-16.1855427.2216689986880.8120083094070.409281919040438821151210WETL
2020-02-21 00:00:02FORECAST2020147-13831.8420.9226.38191.092510160030.1591.6496.578.219TT-0.16-23.1655428.0586584605381.7988035409590.410163527213398821151210WETL
2020-02-20 19:59:26FORECAST2020147-13834.5223.3828.95188.459691987590.16141.33146.587.9114TT2.52-4.4855426.9190623830280.4570350003360.53061362133118831141210WETL
2020-02-20 16:00:02FORECAST2020147-13834.7523.0728.91188.028241276050.13661.36666.587.9466TT2.75-3.2555426.7315842626980.2375892858560.540977463900648831141210WETL
2020-02-20 11:57:11FORECAST2020147-13834.7823.0728.925187.79939541670.13661.36666.577.9366TT2.78-2.2255426.6320605351880.1212430338880.542327370513558831141210WETL
2020-02-20 08:00:02FORECAST2020147-13833.6223.1528.385188.56933833090.35121.43126.578.0012TT1.62-3.3855426.9666742365780.5128232501360.48992544572125882114128WETL
2020-02-20 04:00:04FORECAST2020147-13834.0624.0829.07187.080873516230.22490.95496.577.5249TT2.06-8.9455426.3192033286979.7561689554730.50983061911211883113127.5WETL
2020-02-20 00:00:03FORECAST2020147-13834.0924.0829.085190.774472889730.22491.01496.577.5849TT2.09-8.9155427.921402702781.6364800388430.511187459286248831141210WETL
2020-02-19 20:00:02FORECAST2020147-13831.1419.2525.195194.469813358710.21621.39626.567.9562TT-0.86-2.8655429.5093856347383.5266100602030.37960773268641882114128WETL
2020-02-19 16:00:02FORECAST2020147-13830.5820.1725.375197.021448865070.21421.71426.568.2742TT-1.42-3.4255430.5972221439584.8368885840730.355683372905658821151210WETL
2020-02-19 11:59:26FORECAST2020147-13827.0820.2923.685196.347575018460.14111.59116.568.1511TT-4.92-7.9255430.3106148749484.4904457353940.22154129288966881115127.5WETL
2020-02-19 08:00:03FORECAST2020147-13827.1120.2923.7196.773271225790.14111.56116.568.1211TT-4.89-13.8955430.4917260431284.7092651691430.22255432973758881115127.5WETL
2020-02-19 04:00:03FORECAST2020147-13831.9120.3526.13198.812255128920.36591.72596.578.2959TT-0.09-7.0955431.3564954322685.7589576213950.413252704370978821151210WETL
2020-02-19 00:00:03FORECAST2020147-13831.9520.3526.15200.621742674330.36591.73596.578.3059TT-0.050000000000001-5.0555432.1201894106786.6927054443290.415020375407068821151210WETL
2020-02-18 20:00:02FORECAST2020147-13829.5418.4323.985205.380959890220.40882.12886.588.7088TT-2.46-4.4655434.1121400010289.1583680134090.312785363385278821151210WETL
2020-02-18 16:00:03FORECAST2020147-13828.1515.4921.82203.811247195070.31912.02916.578.5991TT-3.850.1555433.4578027202888.3435753788560.259261349340098821151210WETL
2020-02-18 12:00:02FORECAST2020147-13828.1815.4921.835204.216586565610.31912.02916.578.5991TT-3.82-1.8255433.627019033788.5538296696850.260364684039378821151210WETL
2020-02-18 08:01:25FORECAST2020147-13828.3511.1919.77204.165549383260.26891.89896.578.4689TT-3.65-6.6555433.6057222169188.5273504921420.266662222620088821151210WETL
2020-02-18 04:00:05FORECAST2020147-13827.0210.9218.97204.74133497520.21421.86426.658.5142TT-4.98-12.9855433.845826224788.8261736346620.21952313220575881115127.5WETL
2020-02-18 00:00:01FORECAST2020147-13827.0410.9218.98201.802406064120.21421.86426.248.1042TT-4.96-20.9655432.6165992895287.3030706399010.22019467848847881115127.5WETL
2020-02-17 20:00:02FORECAST2020147-13827.3413.6520.495205.280106381180.49482.31486.28.5148TT-4.66-3.6655434.0701774322589.1059722001890.23040799031687881115127.5WETL
2020-02-17 15:57:28FORECAST2020147-13829.1621.0625.11207.561614746110.46832.66836.28.8683TT-2.84-5.8455435.016830781190.292795838660.297685604923378821151210WETL
2020-02-17 12:00:03FORECAST2020147-1382421.0722.535206.647093162880.43932.63936.198.8293TT-8-755434.638032157289.8166859233210.13209963160448881115127.5WETL
2020-02-17 08:00:03FORECAST2020147-13822.9419.6421.29204.904588051060.30282.23286.288.5128TT-9.06-33.0655433.9138392876188.9109364888820.10806361433097881115127.5WETL
2020-02-17 04:00:03FORECAST2020147-13820.0719.9520.01203.195573617430.12381.97386.338.3038TT-11.93-22.9355433.2004450449488.0244129222330.05901282287718881115127.5WETL