Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 23, 2020

[ Saturday, February 22, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, February 24, 2020 ]

DAY 146 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/24/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 27.89°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.53°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.71°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.223 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -20 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 1.09 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.10 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.78 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.88 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 181 in SWE DAY: 54 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 422.78 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 76.33 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -139 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-24 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	146	-139	27.89006	21.52994	24.71	180.53277541667	1.09	1.1	10.78	11.88	T	T	-4.10994	-20.10994	54	422.77737506458	76.325172903782	0.22312540217264	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-23 11:59:23	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	22.17	20.81	21.49	180.63375937859	0.9604	0.9704	10.78	11.7504	T	T	-9.83	-25.83	54	422.82228812853	76.375979453713	0.073796372061173	89	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-23 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	27.81	21.12	24.465	181.8945949021	1.4927	1.5027	10.78	12.2827	T	T	-4.19	-20.19	54	423.38208153887	77.010912210322	0.22027076010671	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-23 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.26	21.69	25.975	181.33820404751	1.5258	1.5358	10.78	12.3158	T	T	-1.74	-17.74	54	423.13527273936	76.730590427708	0.31647472571634	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-23 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.67	21.61	26.14	183.4047213051	1.7181	1.7181	10.78	12.4981	T	T	-1.33	-24.33	54	424.05020141479	77.772809009851	0.33416716998172	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-22 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	29.13	21.8	25.465	183.91095310695	1.726	1.756	10.78	12.536	T	T	-2.87	-16.87	54	424.27359883244	78.028561939388	0.26992749603007	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-22 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.9	21.31	26.105	183.54190928176	1.7521	1.7821	10.78	12.5621	T	T	-1.1	-15.1	54	424.11077012073	77.842100494918	0.34425916261476	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-22 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.97	21.29	26.13	183.18545101546	1.6557	1.6857	10.78	12.4657	T	T	-1.03	-15.03	54	423.95334940354	77.662085520002	0.34735318238413	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-22 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	32.08	22.53	27.305	184.30306762675	1.8822	1.9422	10.78	12.7222	T	T	0.079999999999998	-13.92	54	424.44643958558	78.226780858875	0.39765164341232	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-22 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	32.44	22.62	27.53	184.63117940942	1.8575	1.9275	10.78	12.7075	T	T	0.44	-17.56	54	424.59093624375	78.392725325232	0.41438452680218	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	32.8	22.51	27.655	187.58054089093	1.9321	2.0121	10.78	12.7921	T	T	0.8	-22.2	54	425.8844089835	79.88762779414	0.43127424669509	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-21 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	32.11	22.75	27.43	187.9620203002	2.1351	2.2051	10.78	12.9851	T	T	0.11	-10.89	54	426.05100409001	80.081407479688	0.39903933738234	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-21 16:00:01	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	31.12	22.83	26.975	191.26236674893	2.1989	2.2589	10.78	13.0389	T	T	-0.88	-11.88	54	427.48557228995	81.761902307196	0.35401733281084	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	31.26	23.14	27.2	190.23199278946	2.0111	2.0911	10.78	12.8711	T	T	-0.74	-12.74	54	427.03898806081	81.2364776976	0.36027784213287	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-21 07:57:22	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	31.96	21.69	26.825	189.54458335559	1.6122	1.7222	10.78	12.5022	T	T	-0.039999999999999	-12.04	54	426.74040072936	80.886331457242	0.39211397013102	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-21 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	31.23	22.3	26.765	188.33823331486	1.4366	1.5366	10.78	12.3166	T	T	-0.77	-15.77	54	426.21514129952	80.272606724393	0.35893308044486	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-21 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	31.5	22.45	26.975	190.13961006806	1.3978	1.4978	10.78	12.2778	T	T	-0.5	-22.5	54	426.99889045913	81.189402531391	0.37109693413859	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-20 19:59:26	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	32.99	22.61	27.8	187.62553426427	1.0809	1.1809	10.79	11.9709	T	T	0.99	-7.01	54	425.90406634696	79.910477993672	0.4402412594905	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-20 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	33.55	22.67	28.11	187.35247813834	1.1578	1.2378	10.79	12.0278	T	T	1.55	-6.45	54	425.78473502985	79.77182526132	0.46683193505976	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-20 11:57:11	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	34.12	22.53	28.325	187.11137611959	1.1089	1.2289	10.79	12.0189	T	T	2.12	-4.88	54	425.67929951071	79.649439517073	0.49404963942514	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-20 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	34.14	24.11	29.125	186.74263618492	1.0434	1.0834	10.79	11.8734	T	T	2.14	-4.86	54	425.51792213892	79.462338524151	0.49500589263586	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-20 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	35.16	25.26	30.21	185.98366262	0.6721	0.7321	10.79	11.5221	T	T	3.16	-10.84	54	425.18528467586	79.077516536144	0.54369156709067	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-20 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	35.19	25.98	30.585	189.65749328947	0.6683	0.7883	10.79	11.5783	T	T	3.19	-10.81	54	426.78948076352	80.943823083926	0.54511718642513	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-19 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	32.09	18.66	25.375	192.93553554492	1.124	1.184	10.78	11.964	T	T	0.090000000000003	-1.91	54	428.20827106317	82.616592102338	0.39811406516185	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-19 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.54	20.1	25.32	195.50991769954	1.4384	1.4984	10.78	12.2784	T	T	-1.46	-2.46	54	429.31425360209	83.935194388984	0.32851498372489	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-19 11:59:26	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	29	20.48	24.74	195.33534726286	1.3604	1.4504	10.78	12.2304	T	T	-3	-3	54	429.23948460478	83.845643784208	0.264800208908	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	29.04	20.48	24.76	195.73832269889	1.3604	1.4204	10.78	12.2004	T	T	-2.96	-8.96	54	429.41203003824	84.052390506411	0.26637255392666	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	29.08	20.08	24.58	195.98209941139	1.289	1.359	10.79	12.149	T	T	-2.92	-6.92	54	429.51632429205	84.177510966218	0.26794960311921	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	29.12	20.08	24.6	197.7234052843	1.289	1.369	10.79	12.159	T	T	-2.88	-4.88	54	430.25942674832	85.07235901235	0.26953133430059	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	28.59	17.39	22.99	201.99044658859	1.6747	1.7247	10.8	12.5247	T	T	-3.41	-2.41	54	432.06655228349	87.273315851734	0.24895989961356	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-18 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	31.3	16.23	23.765	200.97504208937	1.6614	1.7114	10.79	12.5014	T	T	-0.7	4.3	54	431.6382946619	86.748524437061	0.36207354629109	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	31.3	16.23	23.765	201.29487332751	1.6614	1.7114	10.79	12.5014	T	T	-0.7	2.3	54	431.77330605995	86.913752949536	0.36207354629109	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-18 08:01:25	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.85	15.42	23.135	201.44842577622	1.5421	1.6321	10.79	12.4221	T	T	-1.15	-3.15	54	431.8380866942	86.993102754761	0.34205549477686	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-18 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	27.76	14.23	20.995	202.13248956548	1.2611	1.7011	10.82	12.5211	T	T	-4.24	-8.24	54	432.12637240213	87.34677946054	0.21849860103156	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	27.81	14.23	21.02	199.09918853134	1.2611	1.7111	10.4	12.1111	T	T	-4.19	-16.19	54	430.84422258597	85.780735100284	0.22027076010671	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.39	15.62	23.005	199.52058752444	1.3806	1.8406	10.4	12.2406	T	T	-1.61	1.39	54	431.02293565228	85.997949357853	0.32204169077359	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-17 15:57:28	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.5	18.73	24.615	202.641625559	1.7019	2.2219	10.4	12.6219	T	T	-1.5	-2.5	54	432.34061319788	87.610204653591	0.32678363345645	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.5	18.73	24.615	201.81019480255	1.7019	2.2219	10.39	12.6119	T	T	-1.5	1.5	54	431.99060979123	87.180109114842	0.32678363345645	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	29.86	18.06	23.96	201.36255602866	1.5482	2.0382	10.39	12.4282	T	T	-2.14	-24.14	54	431.80186311978	86.948726855739	0.29960868326548	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-17 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	29.43	17.43	23.43	201.41639490914	1.4464	1.9464	10.45	12.3964	T	T	-2.57	-10.57	54	431.82457561263	86.976549253066	0.28194597187005	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	29.46	17.43	23.445	191.11850025666	1.4464	1.9464	9.98	11.9264	T	T	-2.54	-9.54	54	427.42328791873	81.688497761797	0.28316183568714	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.27	20.09	25.18	181.98348134947	0.824	1.234	10.49	11.724	T	T	-1.73	4.27	54	423.42147827691	77.05571469497	0.31690150284923	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.79	20.82	25.805	183.42696316284	0.9387	1.4287	10.51	11.9387	T	T	-1.21	4.79	54	424.06002266328	77.784042155892	0.33941817907251	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.83	22.06	26.445	183.86764999072	0.7589	1.2489	10.55	11.7989	T	T	-1.17	-0.17	54	424.25450062901	78.006678028644	0.34117552575816	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	30.46	29.04	29.75	179.99917109888	0.7198	0.8498	10.51	11.3598	T	T	-1.54	2.46	54	422.53986082331	76.056824704431	0.32505600212172	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	146	-139	31.49	31.27	31.38	178.06733997892	0.3226	0.6626	10.47	11.1326	T	T	-0.51	6.49	54	421.67728019458	75.086951613795	0.37064403035753	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L