Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 20, 2020
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Wednesday, February 19, 2020 |
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Friday, February 21, 2020 ]
DAY 143
OF WATER YEAR 2020,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/21/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 40.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 22.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 31.28°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.738
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -42
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.26 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 182 in
SWE DAY: 51
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 421.30 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 76.55 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -142
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 1
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 3.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2020-02-21 04:00:02 | OBSERVATION | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.40006 | 22.15004 | 31.27505 | 181.70731375 | 0 | 0 | 15.26 | 15.26 | T | T | 8.40006 | -41.59994 | 51 | 421.29720494411 | 76.552783400778 | 0.7376648499253 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-21 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 144 | -142 | 28.36 | 28.36 | 28.36 | 184.00039000008 | 0.0001 | 0.0001 | 15.26 | 15.2601 | T | T | -3.64 | -53.64 | 51 | 422.32282296749 | 77.707564131954 | 0.21529203041321 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-20 11:57:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 41.52 | 27.77 | 34.645 | 183.76052599874 | 0.0072 | 0.0072 | 15.26 | 15.2672 | T | T | 9.52 | -40.48 | 51 | 422.21581917819 | 77.586601017175 | 0.77895673007128 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-20 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 41.47 | 26.85 | 34.16 | 183.73680975037 | 0.0067 | 0.0067 | 15.26 | 15.2667 | T | T | 9.47 | -40.53 | 51 | 422.20523577247 | 77.574643080737 | 0.77719615638884 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-20 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 37.78 | 26.87 | 32.325 | 184.27435075008 | 0.0071 | 0.0071 | 15.26 | 15.2671 | T | T | 5.78 | -44.22 | 51 | 422.44495765618 | 77.845770299736 | 0.62786487032741 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-20 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 42.04 | 27.15 | 34.595 | 187.74495274364 | 0.0095 | 0.0095 | 15.26 | 15.2695 | T | T | 10.04 | -43.96 | 51 | 423.98485427052 | 79.601016429037 | 0.796789657334 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-19 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 41.88 | 26.11 | 33.995 | 187.74683196174 | 0.0012 | 0.0012 | 15.26 | 15.2612 | T | T | 9.88 | -34.12 | 51 | 423.98568440274 | 79.601969043743 | 0.79139600888937 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-19 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 41.85 | 25.01 | 33.43 | 187.75544908481 | 0.0028 | 0.0028 | 15.26 | 15.2628 | T | T | 9.85 | -34.15 | 51 | 423.98949090939 | 79.606337272934 | 0.7903754037435 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-19 11:59:26 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 41.88 | 25.16 | 33.52 | 187.67398723351 | 0.0002 | 0.0002 | 15.26 | 15.2602 | T | T | 9.88 | -34.12 | 51 | 423.95350282335 | 79.565044276473 | 0.79139600888937 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-19 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 41.47 | 26.28 | 33.875 | 187.67171704231 | 0.0004 | 0.0004 | 15.26 | 15.2604 | T | T | 9.47 | -34.53 | 51 | 423.95249979527 | 79.56389358096 | 0.77719615638884 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-19 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 41.63 | 26.47 | 34.05 | 188.19740467441 | 0.0005 | 0.0105 | 15.26 | 15.2705 | T | T | 9.63 | -38.37 | 51 | 424.18460760591 | 79.830442254266 | 0.78280188853959 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-19 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 41.64 | 23.62 | 32.63 | 189.68571297862 | 0 | 0.01 | 15.26 | 15.27 | T | T | 9.64 | -36.36 | 51 | 424.84006474712 | 80.58609058344 | 0.78314952558798 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.88 | 23.2 | 32.04 | 189.7313116784 | 0.001 | 0.021 | 15.26 | 15.281 | T | T | 8.88 | -28.12 | 51 | 424.86010750882 | 80.609265477473 | 0.75582863759576 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.6 | 22.87 | 31.735 | 189.72070389051 | 0.001 | 0.011 | 15.26 | 15.271 | T | T | 8.6 | -28.4 | 51 | 424.855445097 | 80.603874095518 | 0.74531482641815 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.41 | 22.58 | 31.495 | 189.73586546735 | 0.0028 | 0.0128 | 15.26 | 15.2728 | T | T | 8.41 | -28.59 | 51 | 424.86210898461 | 80.611579952479 | 0.73804792509194 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 08:01:25 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.2 | 22.16 | 31.18 | 189.75294855298 | 0.0013 | 0.0113 | 15.26 | 15.2713 | T | T | 8.2 | -28.8 | 51 | 424.86961711533 | 80.620262598209 | 0.72989434800521 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.33 | 22.09 | 31.21 | 190.29963154734 | 0.0182 | 0.0382 | 15.26 | 15.2982 | T | T | 8.33 | -32.67 | 51 | 425.1097160094 | 80.898222323784 | 0.73495672232409 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-18 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.02 | 22.46 | 31.24 | 186.87475331505 | 0.023 | 0.033 | 14.85 | 14.883 | T | T | 8.02 | -40.98 | 51 | 423.60002334453 | 79.16014986676 | 0.72280606730948 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 38.95 | 22.78 | 30.865 | 186.83759215988 | 0.0008 | 0.0108 | 14.87 | 14.8808 | T | T | 6.95 | -29.05 | 51 | 423.58357050932 | 79.141334392447 | 0.67889556570256 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 15:57:28 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 35.23 | 22.92 | 29.075 | 186.88601131152 | 0.0012 | 0.0112 | 14.87 | 14.8812 | T | T | 3.23 | -32.77 | 51 | 423.60500743531 | 79.165850211172 | 0.50979289976835 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 38.64 | 23.31 | 30.975 | 186.85046341266 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 14.87 | 14.871 | T | T | 6.64 | -29.36 | 51 | 423.58926934006 | 79.14785127282 | 0.66565249984754 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 32.55 | 20.85 | 26.7 | 187.10577241254 | 0 | 0 | 14.87 | 14.87 | T | T | 0.55 | -46.45 | 51 | 423.70227056603 | 79.277140607204 | 0.38495885351589 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 04:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 38.59 | 21.05 | 29.82 | 186.80153093488 | 0.0004 | 0.0004 | 14.93 | 14.9304 | T | T | 6.59 | -34.41 | 51 | 423.56760317554 | 79.123076727608 | 0.66349653512328 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-17 00:00:04 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 38.59 | 23.86 | 31.225 | 175.75550212999 | 0.0006 | 0.0006 | 14.46 | 14.4606 | T | T | 6.59 | -33.41 | 51 | 418.60711161562 | 73.572503097188 | 0.66349653512328 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.66 | 23 | 31.83 | 173.67232642394 | 0.0012 | 0.0012 | 14.97 | 14.9712 | T | T | 8.66 | -23.34 | 51 | 417.65591088977 | 72.535273688937 | 0.74758753826699 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.97 | 22.89 | 31.93 | 173.75683657931 | 0.0011 | 0.0011 | 14.99 | 14.9911 | T | T | 8.97 | -23.03 | 51 | 417.69459717568 | 72.577291861514 | 0.75915776517623 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.97 | 22.89 | 31.93 | 176.03342934733 | 0.0011 | 0.0011 | 15.03 | 15.0311 | T | T | 8.97 | -28.03 | 51 | 418.73363610016 | 73.711117945786 | 0.75915776517623 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.46 | 23.01 | 31.735 | 175.7968410969 | 0.0013 | 0.0013 | 14.99 | 14.9913 | T | T | 8.46 | -28.54 | 51 | 418.62593655554 | 73.593117247698 | 0.73997050900831 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 39.76 | 22.68 | 31.22 | 175.64234068216 | 0.0013 | 0.0013 | 14.95 | 14.9513 | T | T | 7.76 | -25.24 | 51 | 418.55557003987 | 73.516080027358 | 0.71240964960672 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-16 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.19 | 23.17 | 31.68 | 175.63239863042 | 0.0014 | 0.0014 | 15.14 | 15.1414 | T | T | 8.19 | -21.81 | 51 | 418.55104103162 | 73.511123285644 | 0.729502942956 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 38.24 | 23.61 | 30.925 | 174.05753054532 | 0.0035 | 0.0035 | 15.92 | 15.9235 | T | T | 6.24 | -14.76 | 51 | 417.83217878941 | 72.726837222457 | 0.64825752135853 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 38.56 | 22.82 | 30.69 | 174.34801923794 | 0.0022 | 0.0022 | 15.96 | 15.9622 | T | T | 6.56 | -18.44 | 51 | 417.96499125768 | 72.871368336579 | 0.66220036748408 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 38.59 | 22.83 | 30.71 | 175.72840673041 | 0.0022 | 0.0022 | 16.06 | 16.0622 | T | T | 6.59 | -10.41 | 51 | 418.59477183936 | 73.558992321011 | 0.66349653512328 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 38.09 | 24 | 31.045 | 176.56524799919 | 0.0008 | 0.0008 | 16.16 | 16.1608 | T | T | 6.09 | -21.91 | 51 | 418.97549410598 | 73.976512022407 | 0.64165114799325 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 39.49 | 24.59 | 32.04 | 178.42340654996 | 0.0008 | 0.0008 | 16.45 | 16.4508 | T | T | 7.49 | -18.51 | 51 | 419.81797845125 | 74.905353846192 | 0.70142234807499 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-15 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 39.52 | 24.61 | 32.065 | 173.09221257463 | 0.0008 | 0.0008 | 16.17 | 16.1708 | T | T | 7.52 | -8.48 | 51 | 417.39012740875 | 72.246980659987 | 0.70265253509012 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.65 | 24.81 | 32.73 | 173.06780054365 | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 16.41 | 16.4105 | T | T | 8.65 | -7.35 | 51 | 417.37893426572 | 72.23485414662 | 0.74720949561903 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.49 | 23.92 | 32.205 | 173.03780057479 | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 16.4 | 16.4005 | T | T | 8.49 | -3.51 | 51 | 417.36517805068 | 72.219952446397 | 0.7411205616708 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 11:59:30 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.61 | 24.77 | 32.69 | 174.90671333465 | 0.0005 | 0.0005 | 16.25 | 16.2505 | T | T | 8.61 | -10.39 | 51 | 418.22015288012 | 73.149512390578 | 0.7456943534002 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 40.62 | 26.3 | 33.46 | 176.97567523978 | 0.0016 | 0.0016 | 16.6 | 16.6016 | T | T | 8.62 | -20.38 | 51 | 419.1619230621 | 74.181464368721 | 0.74607358410825 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 04:00:02 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 38.6 | 25.16 | 31.88 | 177.94803819845 | 0.0212 | 0.0212 | 16.99 | 17.0112 | T | T | 6.6 | -17.4 | 51 | 419.60282601121 | 74.66749971122 | 0.66392816085567 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-14 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 39.64 | 25.58 | 32.61 | 176.4358248762 | 0.0075 | 0.0075 | 16.98 | 16.9875 | T | T | 7.64 | -14.36 | 51 | 418.91666573748 | 73.911907473781 | 0.70754998847791 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 41.7 | 26.33 | 34.015 | 179.82290749215 | 0 | 0 | 17.04 | 17.04 | T | T | 9.7 | 2.7 | 51 | 420.44988858078 | 75.606521419347 | 0.7852285941457 | 88 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 12:02:17 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 37.12 | 26.09 | 31.605 | 153.48811226234 | 0 | 0 | 4.49 | 4.49 | T | F | 5.12 | -33.88 | 51 | 408.17419716239 | 62.649886996652 | 0.59798238058856 | 88 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 33.57 | 26.09 | 29.83 | 154.38709538398 | 0 | 0 | 4.59 | 4.59 | T | F | 1.57 | -37.43 | 51 | 408.60692607207 | 63.083636470044 | 0.43178919782151 | 88 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 08:02:14 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 26.65 | 24.43 | 25.54 | 154.62196292773 | 0 | 0.02 | 4.5 | 4.52 | T | F | -5.35 | -44.35 | 51 | 408.71981774547 | 63.197060507269 | 0.16094537960446 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 26.66 | 24.72 | 25.69 | 154.25020346129 | 0 | 0.02 | 4.45 | 4.47 | T | F | -5.34 | -44.34 | 51 | 408.54109638825 | 63.017547240186 | 0.16123469536978 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 04:02:14 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 24.2 | 23.48 | 23.84 | 17.753797352978 | 0 | 0.02 | 4.5 | 4.52 | T | F | -7.8 | -45.8 | 51 | 330.07198304474 | 5.8600310988718 | 0.10014148357004 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 24.01 | 23.49 | 23.75 | 18.298799463352 | 0 | 0.02 | 4.49 | 4.51 | T | F | -7.99 | -47.99 | 51 | 330.44248230304 | 6.0467007178356 | 0.096242745505921 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | WET | L |
2020-02-13 00:02:17 | FORECAST | 2020 | 143 | -142 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 155.91457854223 | 0 | 0.02 | 4.4 | 4.42 | T | F | -8.5 | -55.5 | 51 | 409.33992384286 | 63.822061706469 | 0.086329514562089 | 88 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | WET | L |