Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 2, 2020
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Monday, February 3, 2020 ]
DAY 125
OF WATER YEAR 2020,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
WET
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 21.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 13.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 17.35°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.083
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: -11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 22
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.53 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.51 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 33
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 383.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.84 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -160
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2020-02-03 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 126 | -160 | 20.71 | 20.71 | 20.71 | 132.01389818471 | 0.0026 | 3.3526 | 12.98 | 16.3326 | T | T | -11.29 | 20.71 | 33 | 383.35395214914 | 50.608049607723 | 0.07415704906937 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.13 | 17.77 | 22.45 | 132.16235540691 | 0.0333 | 3.3833 | 12.98 | 16.3633 | T | T | -4.87 | 27.13 | 33 | 383.43483821003 | 50.675651362907 | 0.24361122832856 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27 | 16.06 | 21.53 | 132.21066947873 | 0.0389 | 3.3889 | 12.98 | 16.3689 | T | T | -5 | 27 | 33 | 383.4611552757 | 50.697656058087 | 0.23887602829169 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 23.45 | 18.01 | 20.73 | 132.64626797327 | 0.099 | 3.449 | 12.98 | 16.429 | T | T | -8.55 | 23.45 | 33 | 383.69828353411 | 50.896145338549 | 0.13032191935814 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-02-02 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.49 | 16.49 | 21.99 | 140.45495717075 | 0.0796 | 2.3296 | 12.98 | 15.3096 | T | T | -4.51 | 7.49 | 33 | 387.90492022515 | 54.483168956548 | 0.25698403317684 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.55 | 17.07 | 22.31 | 139.77702907359 | 0.1367 | 2.6267 | 12.98 | 15.6067 | T | T | -4.45 | 19.55 | 33 | 387.54301034679 | 54.169610624511 | 0.25924933534249 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 16:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.92 | 17.9 | 22.91 | 139.79339231067 | 0.1471 | 2.6371 | 12.98 | 15.6171 | T | T | -4.08 | 19.92 | 33 | 387.55175315319 | 54.177174269233 | 0.27344291986696 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 12:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.65 | 19.38 | 23.515 | 140.5717317575 | 0.0939 | 2.5839 | 12.98 | 15.5639 | T | T | -4.35 | 19.65 | 33 | 387.96719709399 | 54.537220760606 | 0.26304761142451 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 10:44:44 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.53 | 18.48 | 23.005 | 140.74650405387 | 0.0863 | 2.6463 | 12.98 | 15.6263 | T | T | -4.47 | 20.53 | 33 | 388.06037012434 | 54.618140456854 | 0.25849309118593 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.53 | 18.25 | 22.89 | 78.511175501912 | 0.1536 | 3.2436 | 12.98 | 16.2236 | T | T | -4.47 | 25.53 | 33 | 352.12381462793 | 27.645654608656 | 0.25849309118593 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.46 | 19.31 | 23.385 | 78.456290799171 | 0.2191 | 3.8591 | 12.98 | 16.8391 | T | T | -4.54 | 27.46 | 33 | 352.08954928326 | 27.623640065917 | 0.25585525050752 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-02-01 00:00:15 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 23.15 | 19.77 | 21.46 | 95.709770991329 | 0.2891 | 1.8391 | 12.98 | 14.8191 | T | T | -8.85 | 20.15 | 33 | 362.62927468433 | 34.707164834789 | 0.12303307305703 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 20:00:15 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.86 | 19.74 | 23.8 | 96.401765388609 | 0.2063 | 2.0363 | 12.98 | 15.0163 | T | T | -4.14 | 32.86 | 33 | 363.04243877613 | 34.997932009005 | 0.27111540642963 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 28.4 | 19.71 | 24.055 | 97.157499964195 | 0.2947 | 2.2247 | 12.98 | 15.2047 | T | T | -3.6 | 33.4 | 33 | 363.49283090672 | 35.316054705805 | 0.2924108580716 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 28.3 | 19.37 | 23.835 | 96.829186247422 | 0.3169 | 2.2469 | 12.98 | 15.2269 | T | T | -3.7 | 33.3 | 33 | 363.29727329279 | 35.177779338848 | 0.28840920391704 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.86 | 17.43 | 22.645 | 97.847449030714 | 0.5384 | 2.7384 | 12.98 | 15.7184 | T | T | -4.14 | 32.86 | 33 | 363.90326284577 | 35.607005963412 | 0.27111540642963 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 28.06 | 17.99 | 23.025 | 98.761669301668 | 0.6129 | 3.2029 | 12.98 | 16.1829 | T | T | -3.94 | 31.06 | 33 | 364.44600083419 | 35.993295412702 | 0.27891191521274 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-31 00:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 28.05 | 18.25 | 23.15 | 152.39863710621 | 0.457 | 3.607 | 11.79 | 15.397 | T | T | -3.95 | 31.05 | 33 | 394.17986722607 | 60.072474539961 | 0.27851951642021 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.39 | 16.56 | 21.975 | 148.44798194084 | 0.4169 | 3.3069 | 12.46 | 15.7669 | T | T | -4.61 | 36.39 | 33 | 392.12531297845 | 58.210211379572 | 0.25323150807989 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 16:58:03 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 23.02 | 17.2 | 20.11 | 147.79563613179 | 0.3918 | 3.5418 | 12.46 | 16.0018 | T | T | -8.98 | 32.02 | 33 | 391.78407025713 | 57.903975889955 | 0.11996475438604 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 23.03 | 17.21 | 20.12 | 87.817005678877 | 0.3918 | 3.5018 | 12.46 | 15.9618 | T | T | -8.97 | 32.03 | 33 | 357.86505963762 | 31.426637974468 | 0.12019885217689 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.78 | 19.84 | 23.81 | 87.809167309718 | 0.4033 | 3.3433 | 12.46 | 15.8033 | T | T | -4.22 | 32.78 | 33 | 357.86028062456 | 31.423413254865 | 0.26802748279549 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 22.52 | 19.91 | 21.215 | 88.02271911748 | 0.337 | 3.237 | 12.58 | 15.817 | T | T | -9.48 | 31.52 | 33 | 357.99044804522 | 31.511292655025 | 0.10866592342773 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 23.16 | 17.43 | 20.295 | 91.023163226536 | 0.5771 | 3.7171 | 12.61 | 16.3271 | T | T | -8.84 | 28.16 | 33 | 359.81187995909 | 32.751215480363 | 0.12327134889196 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-30 00:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 21.91 | 17.46 | 19.685 | 151.68048507079 | 0.6453 | 3.7753 | 11.44 | 15.2153 | T | T | -10.09 | 22.91 | 33 | 393.8079209433 | 59.732976473399 | 0.095941057686094 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 28.15 | 18.03 | 23.09 | 149.78298513004 | 0.4867 | 3.8767 | 11.99 | 15.8667 | T | T | -3.85 | 34.15 | 33 | 392.82189434241 | 58.838035959044 | 0.28245554264513 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.85 | 16.79 | 22.32 | 151.6869177952 | 0.5474 | 3.9774 | 12.1 | 16.0774 | T | T | -4.15 | 33.85 | 33 | 393.81125560103 | 59.736015555179 | 0.27072844905174 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.9 | 16.83 | 22.365 | 151.24087279421 | 0.5474 | 3.5274 | 12.11 | 15.6374 | T | T | -4.1 | 38.9 | 33 | 393.57990134782 | 59.525367794104 | 0.27266598538689 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 09:36:39 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 23.96 | 17.16 | 20.56 | 155.89627065894 | 0.9222 | 4.3222 | 12.37 | 16.6922 | T | T | -8.04 | 28.96 | 33 | 395.98169911197 | 61.732070140745 | 0.14338535607339 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 23.99 | 17.18 | 20.585 | 71.860481724026 | 0.9222 | 4.7822 | 12.61 | 17.3922 | T | T | -8.01 | 31.99 | 33 | 347.93670966157 | 25.002899565753 | 0.14418032839133 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.29 | 18.21 | 22.75 | 71.09403318658 | 1.0194 | 4.8494 | 12.72 | 17.5694 | T | T | -4.71 | 36.29 | 33 | 347.44961232424 | 24.701594269244 | 0.24950795581866 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-29 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 27.18 | 16.34 | 21.76 | 111.46993228571 | 1.0194 | 4.6394 | 11.52 | 16.1594 | T | T | -4.82 | 37.18 | 33 | 371.86133606293 | 41.451357950609 | 0.24544584465946 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 28.42 | 16.99 | 22.705 | 107.00411602283 | 0.3348 | 4.7948 | 12.38 | 17.1748 | T | T | -3.58 | 27.42 | 33 | 369.2827432595 | 39.514773504967 | 0.29321427282937 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 29.35 | 18.27 | 23.81 | 105.76900664255 | 0.2104 | 4.5104 | 12.3 | 16.8104 | T | T | -2.65 | 31.35 | 33 | 368.56440408131 | 38.982690903483 | 0.33164595630786 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 29.4 | 18.27 | 23.835 | 106.61166408884 | 0.2104 | 4.5004 | 12.2 | 16.7004 | T | T | -2.6 | 33.4 | 33 | 369.0547375744 | 39.345539712677 | 0.33376818243699 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 22.07 | 17.99 | 20.03 | 112.8570785876 | 0.7643 | 6.2843 | 12.75 | 19.0343 | T | T | -9.93 | 20.07 | 33 | 372.65634837631 | 42.056906794873 | 0.099167882693083 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 04:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 25.51 | 19.43 | 22.47 | 113.18557256435 | 0.6476 | 6.0276 | 13.03 | 19.0576 | T | T | -6.49 | 24.51 | 33 | 372.84420759739 | 42.200585114214 | 0.18833739064406 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-28 00:00:12 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 25.55 | 19.43 | 22.49 | 142.29959705807 | 0.6476 | 5.8776 | 12.32 | 18.1976 | T | T | -6.45 | 31.55 | 33 | 388.88652668988 | 55.338396049282 | 0.18960176717773 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 29.67 | 16.96 | 23.315 | 138.39035233737 | 0.3583 | 6.3983 | 12.75 | 19.1483 | T | T | -2.33 | 36.67 | 33 | 386.80079326545 | 53.52949806438 | 0.34531875179013 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 16:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 30.05 | 20.6 | 25.325 | 134.49607475703 | 0.3321 | 6.6021 | 13.03 | 19.6321 | T | T | -1.95 | 43.05 | 33 | 384.70235161744 | 51.740956242346 | 0.36181986309693 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 30.06 | 20.6 | 25.33 | 135.20020719095 | 0.3321 | 6.6021 | 13.33 | 19.9321 | T | T | -1.94 | 47.06 | 33 | 385.08331406373 | 52.063343847193 | 0.36225775155192 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 08:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 35.03 | 17.82 | 26.425 | 146.67869412856 | 1.4336 | 3.9536 | 13.26 | 17.2136 | T | T | 3.03 | 43.03 | 33 | 391.19848235365 | 57.380482536707 | 0.59023660754016 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 04:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 34.49 | 16.79 | 25.64 | 147.64664160557 | 1.7638 | 4.6838 | 12.9 | 17.5838 | T | T | 2.49 | 40.49 | 33 | 391.7060517261 | 57.834083033934 | 0.56555639220287 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-27 00:00:13 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 34.49 | 16.79 | 25.64 | 151.83564158178 | 1.7638 | 4.6838 | 12.03 | 16.7138 | T | T | 2.49 | 37.49 | 33 | 393.88833728219 | 59.806288402823 | 0.56555639220287 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 20:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 35.22 | 18.41 | 26.815 | 138.72453854183 | 1.2411 | 4.1611 | 12.04 | 16.2011 | T | T | 3.22 | 51.22 | 33 | 386.97990520101 | 53.683608773969 | 0.59884128741029 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 16:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 34.88 | 21.37 | 28.125 | 140.07612782247 | 1.3121 | 4.1221 | 12.41 | 16.5321 | T | T | 2.88 | 34.88 | 33 | 387.70276013884 | 54.307901386333 | 0.58341238912291 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 12:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 34.88 | 21.41 | 28.145 | 145.24337095997 | 1.2702 | 4.0802 | 12.55 | 16.6302 | T | T | 2.88 | 38.88 | 33 | 390.44353098663 | 56.70933461001 | 0.58341238912291 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 08:00:10 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 36.34 | 26.37 | 31.355 | 144.60268492606 | 1.0445 | 2.6445 | 12.61 | 15.2545 | T | T | 4.34 | 37.34 | 33 | 390.10565340557 | 56.410324887281 | 0.64846736906941 | 90 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12.5 | WET | L |
2020-01-26 04:00:11 | FORECAST | 2020 | 125 | -160 | 32.15 | 31.31 | 31.73 | 142.82120089771 | 0.7547 | 2.2547 | 13.06 | 15.3147 | T | T | 0.15 | 34.15 | 33 | 389.16325979593 | 55.580764109322 | 0.45688646455674 | 90 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 10 | WET | L |