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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 2, 2020

[ Saturday, February 1, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, February 3, 2020 ]

DAY 125 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 21.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 13.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 17.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.083
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -11
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 22

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.53 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 12.98 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.51 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 130 in
SWE DAY: 33
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 383.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 49.84 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -160

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-03 00:00:12FORECAST2020126-16020.7120.7120.71132.013898184710.00263.352612.9816.3326TT-11.2920.7133383.3539521491450.6080496077230.07415704906937901115127.5WETL
2020-02-02 12:00:11FORECAST2020125-16027.1317.7722.45132.162355406910.03333.383312.9816.3633TT-4.8727.1333383.4348382100350.6756513629070.24361122832856901115127.5WETL
2020-02-02 08:00:10FORECAST2020125-1602716.0621.53132.210669478730.03893.388912.9816.3689TT-52733383.461155275750.6976560580870.23887602829169901115127.5WETL
2020-02-02 04:00:12FORECAST2020125-16023.4518.0120.73132.646267973270.0993.44912.9816.429TT-8.5523.4533383.6982835341150.8961453385490.13032191935814901115127.5WETL
2020-02-02 00:00:12FORECAST2020125-16027.4916.4921.99140.454957170750.07962.329612.9815.3096TT-4.517.4933387.9049202251554.4831689565480.256984033176849021151210WETL
2020-02-01 20:00:11FORECAST2020125-16027.5517.0722.31139.777029073590.13672.626712.9815.6067TT-4.4519.5533387.5430103467954.1696106245110.259249335342499021151210WETL
2020-02-01 16:00:10FORECAST2020125-16027.9217.922.91139.793392310670.14712.637112.9815.6171TT-4.0819.9233387.5517531531954.1771742692330.273442919866969021151210WETL
2020-02-01 12:00:10FORECAST2020125-16027.6519.3823.515140.57173175750.09392.583912.9815.5639TT-4.3519.6533387.9671970939954.5372207606060.263047611424519021151210WETL
2020-02-01 10:44:44FORECAST2020125-16027.5318.4823.005140.746504053870.08632.646312.9815.6263TT-4.4720.5333388.0603701243454.6181404568540.258493091185939021151210WETL
2020-02-01 08:00:10FORECAST2020125-16027.5318.2522.8978.5111755019120.15363.243612.9816.2236TT-4.4725.5333352.1238146279327.6456546086560.258493091185939021151210WETL
2020-02-01 04:00:12FORECAST2020125-16027.4619.3123.38578.4562907991710.21913.859112.9816.8391TT-4.5427.4633352.0895492832627.6236400659170.255855250507529021151210WETL
2020-02-01 00:00:15FORECAST2020125-16023.1519.7721.4695.7097709913290.28911.839112.9814.8191TT-8.8520.1533362.6292746843334.7071648347890.12303307305703901115127.5WETL
2020-01-31 20:00:15FORECAST2020125-16027.8619.7423.896.4017653886090.20632.036312.9815.0163TT-4.1432.8633363.0424387761334.9979320090050.271115406429639021151210WETL
2020-01-31 16:00:11FORECAST2020125-16028.419.7124.05597.1574999641950.29472.224712.9815.2047TT-3.633.433363.4928309067235.3160547058050.29241085807169021151210WETL
2020-01-31 12:00:11FORECAST2020125-16028.319.3723.83596.8291862474220.31692.246912.9815.2269TT-3.733.333363.2972732927935.1777793388480.288409203917049021151210WETL
2020-01-31 08:00:10FORECAST2020125-16027.8617.4322.64597.8474490307140.53842.738412.9815.7184TT-4.1432.8633363.9032628457735.6070059634120.271115406429639021151210WETL
2020-01-31 04:00:11FORECAST2020125-16028.0617.9923.02598.7616693016680.61293.202912.9816.1829TT-3.9431.0633364.4460008341935.9932954127020.278911915212749021151210WETL
2020-01-31 00:00:13FORECAST2020125-16028.0518.2523.15152.398637106210.4573.60711.7915.397TT-3.9531.0533394.1798672260760.0724745399610.278519516420219021151210WETL
2020-01-30 20:00:11FORECAST2020125-16027.3916.5621.975148.447981940840.41693.306912.4615.7669TT-4.6136.3933392.1253129784558.2102113795720.253231508079899021151210WETL
2020-01-30 16:58:03FORECAST2020125-16023.0217.220.11147.795636131790.39183.541812.4616.0018TT-8.9832.0233391.7840702571357.9039758899550.11996475438604901115127.5WETL
2020-01-30 16:00:11FORECAST2020125-16023.0317.2120.1287.8170056788770.39183.501812.4615.9618TT-8.9732.0333357.8650596376231.4266379744680.12019885217689901115127.5WETL
2020-01-30 12:00:11FORECAST2020125-16027.7819.8423.8187.8091673097180.40333.343312.4615.8033TT-4.2232.7833357.8602806245631.4234132548650.268027482795499021151210WETL
2020-01-30 08:00:10FORECAST2020125-16022.5219.9121.21588.022719117480.3373.23712.5815.817TT-9.4831.5233357.9904480452231.5112926550250.10866592342773901115127.5WETL
2020-01-30 04:00:11FORECAST2020125-16023.1617.4320.29591.0231632265360.57713.717112.6116.3271TT-8.8428.1633359.8118799590932.7512154803630.12327134889196901115127.5WETL
2020-01-30 00:00:13FORECAST2020125-16021.9117.4619.685151.680485070790.64533.775311.4415.2153TT-10.0922.9133393.807920943359.7329764733990.095941057686094901115127.5WETL
2020-01-29 20:00:11FORECAST2020125-16028.1518.0323.09149.782985130040.48673.876711.9915.8667TT-3.8534.1533392.8218943424158.8380359590440.282455542645139021151210WETL
2020-01-29 16:00:11FORECAST2020125-16027.8516.7922.32151.68691779520.54743.977412.116.0774TT-4.1533.8533393.8112556010359.7360155551790.270728449051749021151210WETL
2020-01-29 12:00:11FORECAST2020125-16027.916.8322.365151.240872794210.54743.527412.1115.6374TT-4.138.933393.5799013478259.5253677941040.272665985386899021151210WETL
2020-01-29 09:36:39FORECAST2020125-16023.9617.1620.56155.896270658940.92224.322212.3716.6922TT-8.0428.9633395.9816991119761.7320701407450.14338535607339901115127.5WETL
2020-01-29 08:00:10FORECAST2020125-16023.9917.1820.58571.8604817240260.92224.782212.6117.3922TT-8.0131.9933347.9367096615725.0028995657530.14418032839133901115127.5WETL
2020-01-29 04:00:13FORECAST2020125-16027.2918.2122.7571.094033186581.01944.849412.7217.5694TT-4.7136.2933347.4496123242424.7015942692440.249507955818669021151210WETL
2020-01-29 00:00:12FORECAST2020125-16027.1816.3421.76111.469932285711.01944.639411.5216.1594TT-4.8237.1833371.8613360629341.4513579506090.24544584465946901115127.5WETL
2020-01-28 20:00:11FORECAST2020125-16028.4216.9922.705107.004116022830.33484.794812.3817.1748TT-3.5827.4233369.282743259539.5147735049670.293214272829379021151210WETL
2020-01-28 16:00:11FORECAST2020125-16029.3518.2723.81105.769006642550.21044.510412.316.8104TT-2.6531.3533368.5644040813138.9826909034830.331645956307869021151210WETL
2020-01-28 12:00:11FORECAST2020125-16029.418.2723.835106.611664088840.21044.500412.216.7004TT-2.633.433369.054737574439.3455397126770.333768182436999021151210WETL
2020-01-28 08:00:11FORECAST2020125-16022.0717.9920.03112.85707858760.76436.284312.7519.0343TT-9.9320.0733372.6563483763142.0569067948730.099167882693083901115127.5WETL
2020-01-28 04:00:12FORECAST2020125-16025.5119.4322.47113.185572564350.64766.027613.0319.0576TT-6.4924.5133372.8442075973942.2005851142140.18833739064406901115127.5WETL
2020-01-28 00:00:12FORECAST2020125-16025.5519.4322.49142.299597058070.64765.877612.3218.1976TT-6.4531.5533388.8865266898855.3383960492820.18960176717773901115127.5WETL
2020-01-27 20:00:11FORECAST2020125-16029.6716.9623.315138.390352337370.35836.398312.7519.1483TT-2.3336.6733386.8007932654553.529498064380.345318751790139021151210WETL
2020-01-27 16:00:10FORECAST2020125-16030.0520.625.325134.496074757030.33216.602113.0319.6321TT-1.9543.0533384.7023516174451.7409562423460.361819863096939021151210WETL
2020-01-27 12:00:11FORECAST2020125-16030.0620.625.33135.200207190950.33216.602113.3319.9321TT-1.9447.0633385.0833140637352.0633438471930.362257751551929021151210WETL
2020-01-27 08:00:11FORECAST2020125-16035.0317.8226.425146.678694128561.43363.953613.2617.2136TT3.0343.0333391.1984823536557.3804825367070.590236607540169031151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 04:00:13FORECAST2020125-16034.4916.7925.64147.646641605571.76384.683812.917.5838TT2.4940.4933391.706051726157.8340830339340.565556392202879031151212.5WETL
2020-01-27 00:00:13FORECAST2020125-16034.4916.7925.64151.835641581781.76384.683812.0316.7138TT2.4937.4933393.8883372821959.8062884028230.565556392202879031151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 20:00:11FORECAST2020125-16035.2218.4126.815138.724538541831.24114.161112.0416.2011TT3.2251.2233386.9799052010153.6836087739690.598841287410299031151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 16:00:11FORECAST2020125-16034.8821.3728.125140.076127822471.31214.122112.4116.5321TT2.8834.8833387.7027601388454.3079013863330.583412389122919031151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 12:00:11FORECAST2020125-16034.8821.4128.145145.243370959971.27024.080212.5516.6302TT2.8838.8833390.4435309866356.709334610010.583412389122919031151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 08:00:10FORECAST2020125-16036.3426.3731.355144.602684926061.04452.644512.6115.2545TT4.3437.3433390.1056534055756.4103248872810.648467369069419031151212.5WETL
2020-01-26 04:00:11FORECAST2020125-16032.1531.3131.73142.821200897710.75472.254713.0615.3147TT0.1534.1533389.1632597959355.5807641093220.456886464556749021151210WETL