Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, February 19, 2020

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DAY 142 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/20/2020 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.98°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.47°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 24.22°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.362 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -61 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.41 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 14.86 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 15.27 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 184 in SWE DAY: 50 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 421.85 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 77.80 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -143 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-20 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2020	142	-143	30.97994	17.47004	24.22499	184.43696708333	0	0.41	14.86	15.27	T	T	-1.02006	-61.02006	50	421.84969190864	77.804677740667	0.36216324040684	86	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-20 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	143	-143	26.97	26.97	26.97	188.00042545463	0.0001	0.4101	14.86	15.2701	T	T	-5.03	-65.03	50	423.4359660276	79.606141765984	0.19838862617798	86	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-19 11:59:26	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.59	24.77	30.68	187.93703597371	0.0046	0.4146	14.86	15.2746	T	T	4.59	-55.41	50	423.40787343731	79.574020741739	0.63282056628604	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-19 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.75	23.34	30.045	187.91905447648	0.0036	0.4136	14.86	15.2736	T	T	4.75	-55.25	50	423.3999036759	79.56490956421	0.64022851189258	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-19 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	32.87	22.35	27.61	188.44802625244	0.0105	0.4205	14.86	15.2805	T	T	0.87	-59.13	50	423.63420252973	79.833029319753	0.45242445696983	86	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.77	23.05	29.91	189.93646897862	0.009	0.419	14.86	15.279	T	T	4.77	-57.23	50	424.29179571644	80.588485494978	0.64115087992974	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-18 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.32	22.21	29.265	189.95029913516	0.0065	0.4265	14.86	15.2865	T	T	4.32	-47.68	50	424.29789422208	80.595511929904	0.62020817265297	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-18 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.39	21.82	29.105	189.92750254436	0.0015	0.4215	14.86	15.2815	T	T	4.39	-47.61	50	424.28784178918	80.583930150956	0.62349096579419	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.42	22.04	29.23	189.9336785499	0.0017	0.4217	14.86	15.2817	T	T	4.42	-47.58	50	424.29056523113	80.587067828366	0.62489516424166	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-18 08:01:25	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.13	21.76	28.945	189.94339036498	0.0009	0.4209	14.86	15.2809	T	T	4.13	-47.87	50	424.29484777763	80.592001901275	0.61125460730934	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-18 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.07	21.72	28.895	190.42354062786	0.002	0.432	14.86	15.292	T	T	4.07	-51.93	50	424.50644438281	80.836020158721	0.60841459370311	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	35.5	21.2	28.35	186.9760277615	0.0029	0.0129	14.86	14.8729	T	T	3.5	-60.5	50	422.98142472561	79.087386612094	0.58116638225432	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	35.59	20.77	28.18	186.98367418067	0.0008	0.0308	14.86	14.8908	T	T	3.59	-47.41	50	422.98482194451	79.091256129841	0.58549832828261	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 15:57:28	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	35.8	21.06	28.43	186.94642321549	0.0002	0.0302	14.86	14.8902	T	T	3.8	-47.2	50	422.96827113314	79.072405421978	0.59556499035052	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.31	20.85	28.58	186.99104474259	0.0008	0.0208	14.86	14.8808	T	T	4.31	-46.69	50	422.98809654066	79.094986085817	0.61973848820667	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	31.31	18.8	25.055	187.11145774587	0.0015	0.0215	14.86	14.8815	T	T	-0.69	-57.69	50	423.04158499627	79.155927655776	0.37753227724838	86	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-02-17 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	35.99	20.44	28.215	186.93003454981	0.0012	0.0812	14.86	14.9412	T	T	3.99	-52.01	50	422.96098906162	79.064112298511	0.60461892939891	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.43	20.6	28.515	175.88370689361	0.0012	0.1812	14.29	14.4712	T	T	4.43	-50.57	50	417.98310020138	73.516417082304	0.62536286396756	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.81	20.11	28.46	173.8539493983	0.0015	0.1915	14.79	14.9815	T	T	4.81	-43.19	50	417.05312829032	72.506333462188	0.64299314533035	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	37.1	20.25	28.675	173.93731405014	0.0024	0.2124	14.79	15.0024	T	T	5.1	-42.9	50	417.09141787704	72.547760938898	0.65624769692355	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	36.38	20.39	28.385	176.2138251163	0.0014	0.2514	14.79	15.0414	T	T	4.38	-47.62	50	418.13389734269	73.680973461544	0.62302253535567	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	31.56	20.07	25.815	175.9699158602	0.0026	0.1726	14.83	15.0026	T	T	-0.44	-48.44	50	418.02249243136	73.559382820818	0.38930531327713	86	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	37.72	18.19	27.955	175.81106697055	0.0024	0.1724	14.79	14.9624	T	T	5.72	-44.28	50	417.94990149842	73.480218122671	0.68393282464743	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	37.78	20.47	29.125	175.83794975188	0.0024	0.2024	14.95	15.1524	T	T	5.78	-41.22	50	417.96218847916	73.493614295985	0.68656122473742	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.11	20.76	29.435	174.16882819517	0.0023	0.1523	15.78	15.9323	T	T	6.11	-31.89	50	417.19771037207	72.662836341209	0.70084594049361	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	37.98	19.53	28.755	174.46963297734	0.0023	0.1223	15.85	15.9723	T	T	5.98	-36.02	50	417.33572216849	72.812410275069	0.6952538280432	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.01	19.54	28.775	175.85048649586	0.0023	0.1523	15.92	16.0723	T	T	6.01	-27.99	50	417.96791820699	73.49986175636	0.69654843290609	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.08	20.41	29.245	176.68649866586	0.0004	0.1904	15.98	16.1704	T	T	6.08	-38.92	50	418.34959336731	73.916724870357	0.69955958708087	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.4	20.64	29.52	178.5891558833	0.0004	0.1904	16.27	16.4604	T	T	6.4	-36.6	50	419.21522210696	74.86729264951	0.7131497827292	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.44	20.65	29.545	173.25900057463	0.0004	0.2004	15.98	16.1804	T	T	6.44	-26.56	50	416.77963132284	72.210822382859	0.71482788556731	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	39.3	19.42	29.36	173.27118208992	0	0.18	16.24	16.42	T	T	7.3	-26.7	50	416.78523529032	72.216870396378	0.74973037942692	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	39.53	20.55	30.04	173.23076798551	0	0.16	16.25	16.41	T	T	7.53	-23.47	50	416.76664257488	72.196805563987	0.75866603341947	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-14 11:59:30	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	39.62	21.28	30.45	175.10140035923	0	0.17	16.09	16.26	T	T	7.62	-30.38	50	417.62523935134	73.126764235779	0.76211489241407	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.93	20.67	29.8	177.17854801712	0.0008	0.1308	16.48	16.6108	T	T	6.93	-40.07	50	418.57385625484	74.162308089157	0.73499608621852	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-14 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.8	21.55	30.175	177.96799958555	0.0008	0.1508	16.85	17.0008	T	T	6.8	-35.2	50	418.93308200929	74.556682565403	0.72971662879788	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	39.11	21.57	30.34	176.56400749118	0.0008	0.1708	16.82	16.9908	T	T	7.11	-32.89	50	418.29372159197	73.855615792677	0.74221870736295	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	40.44	25.33	32.885	180.06437015882	0	0.22	16.83	17.05	T	T	8.44	-17.56	50	419.88350904599	75.606059596441	0.79226340681954	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:02:17	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	40.51	23.76	32.135	153.52462959567	0.0004	0.2804	4.21	4.4904	T	F	8.51	-50.49	50	407.46953156649	62.556608905269	0.79472828658752	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	40.52	23.76	32.14	154.39567805065	0.0004	0.2804	4.31	4.5904	T	F	8.52	-50.48	50	407.89038621202	62.976512749545	0.79507899126784	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:02:14	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.15	20.63	29.39	154.62196292773	0.0023	0.4023	4.12	4.5223	T	F	6.15	-49.85	50	407.99956544023	63.085693682029	0.70255718236847	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.17	20.65	29.41	154.25020346129	0.0023	0.4023	4.07	4.4723	T	F	6.17	-49.83	50	407.82016364984	62.906343218605	0.70341112516932	86	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.8	20.86	29.83	17.753797352978	0.0023	0.4023	4.12	4.5223	T	F	6.8	-49.2	50	329.05230041032	5.841927860016	0.72971662879788	86	4	1	1	2	2	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.81	20.86	29.835	18.298799463352	0.0023	0.5223	3.99	4.5123	T	F	6.81	-51.19	50	329.4242102442	6.0280675616318	0.73012459800452	86	4	1	1	3	2	2	18	WET	L
2020-02-13 00:02:17	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.84	20.88	29.86	155.91457854223	0.0023	0.5223	3.9	4.4223	T	F	6.84	-58.16	50	408.62203242363	63.710131968401	0.73134665539856	86	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	38.85	20.88	29.865	155.10375939113	0.0023	0.5223	3.89	4.4123	T	F	6.85	-46.15	50	408.23181642989	63.318289431347	0.73175338984057	86	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	29.17	26.7	27.935	157.18205953453	0	0.14	4.82	4.96	T	F	-2.83	-45.83	50	409.23041439963	64.323679359505	0.28232340373227	86	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	28.42	26.7	27.56	157.10498243731	0	0.14	4.83	4.97	T	F	-3.58	-41.58	50	409.19347383958	64.286333521031	0.25191372279782	86	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-12 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	28.36	26.72	27.54	19.45296436089	0	0.14	4.77	4.91	T	F	-3.64	-42.64	50	330.21011565375	6.4235656114176	0.24955774403822	86	2	1	1	2	2	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	28.41	27.86	28.135	18.070342629051	0	0.09	4.67	4.76	T	F	-3.59	-40.59	50	329.26837380646	5.9499923315932	0.25152024732997	86	2	1	1	1	2	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-12 00:02:15	FORECAST	2020	142	-143	27.98	27.98	27.98	154.95638310375	0	0.09	4.53	4.62	T	F	-4.02	-41.02	50	408.16080355386	63.247121843424	0.2349119569439	86	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L