Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 18, 2020

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DAY 141 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/19/2020 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 25.73°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 10.29°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 18.01°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.181 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 87 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -6 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -55 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 15.54 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 16.54 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 188 in SWE DAY: 49 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 422.96 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 79.70 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -144 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-19 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2020	141	-144	25.73006	10.29002	18.01004	188.432694	0	1	15.54	16.54	T	T	-6.26994	-55.26994	49	422.9639201408	79.700230936932	0.18062752758869	87	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-19 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	142	-144	23.54	23.54	23.54	190	0	1	15.54	16.54	T	T	-8.46	-57.46	49	423.65894883679	80.49520027899	0.11942392147229	87	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-18 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	33.95	21.98	27.965	190.00519139088	0.0106	1.0106	15.54	16.5506	T	T	1.95	-47.05	49	423.66124638729	80.497836204716	0.5320691123354	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-18 08:01:25	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.27	17.71	25.99	190.01012947854	0.0098	1.0098	15.54	16.5498	T	T	2.27	-46.73	49	423.66343180543	80.500343532675	0.54741883868749	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-18 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	29.99	17.65	23.82	190.48217541668	0.0169	1.0169	15.54	16.5569	T	T	-2.01	-51.01	49	423.87221568213	80.74010174182	0.34528637783601	87	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-18 00:00:01	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.62	16.34	25.48	187.01775541392	0.0098	0.5998	15.54	16.1398	T	T	2.62	-59.38	49	422.3340785349	78.983971402402	0.56412602145999	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.62	15.88	25.25	187.03031042661	0.011	0.621	15.54	16.161	T	T	2.62	-46.38	49	422.33967719586	78.990320931415	0.56412602145999	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 15:57:28	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.59	16.44	25.515	187.00019015744	0.0062	0.6162	15.54	16.1562	T	T	2.59	-46.41	49	422.32624535465	78.975088189794	0.5626980194889	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.54	16.01	25.275	187.05978869469	0.0039	0.6139	15.54	16.1539	T	T	2.54	-46.46	49	422.35282174798	79.005229590783	0.56031620933879	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	29.27	13.14	21.205	187.10331823092	0.0023	0.6123	15.54	16.1523	T	T	-2.73	-51.73	49	422.37223005265	79.027245771444	0.31380633714591	87	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-17 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.11	15.3	24.705	186.98746905545	0.0019	0.6719	15.54	16.2119	T	T	2.11	-50.89	49	422.32057219423	78.968654924648	0.5397513804805	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.34	13.89	24.115	175.95110049964	0.002	0.202	15.54	15.742	T	T	2.34	-49.66	49	417.32902807642	73.429501760493	0.5507679705391	87	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-16 20:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.18	13.62	23.9	173.93480368805	0.0021	0.7121	15.54	16.2521	T	T	2.18	-42.82	49	416.40188088553	72.426779407159	0.54310788312201	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 16:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.26	15.17	24.715	174.02175844095	0.0016	0.7316	15.54	16.2716	T	T	2.26	-42.74	49	416.44196305421	72.469962699296	0.5469401101004	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	30.07	14.74	22.405	176.28655124569	0.002	0.772	15.54	16.312	T	T	-1.93	-46.93	49	417.48281712434	73.596606035185	0.34885630118167	87	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.18	14.22	24.2	175.95805574266	0.0024	0.7324	15.54	16.2724	T	T	2.18	-42.82	49	417.33221807232	73.432965690778	0.54310788312201	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.45	15.32	24.885	175.90805537312	0.0027	0.6927	15.54	16.2327	T	T	2.45	-44.55	49	417.30928433826	73.40806469709	0.55602350198223	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.34	16.64	25.49	175.93990441291	0.0013	0.8713	15.55	16.4213	T	T	2.34	-41.66	49	417.32389291522	73.423925828729	0.5507679705391	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.02	16.03	25.525	174.28528899405	0.001	0.731	16.47	17.201	T	T	3.02	-32.98	49	416.56338454345	72.600869859494	0.58307908524284	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	30.87	16.53	23.7	174.57872420564	0.001	0.771	16.47	17.241	T	T	-1.13	-37.13	49	416.69848898104	72.746690584728	0.38524561528866	87	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	34.57	15.61	25.09	175.96021442845	0.0006	0.8706	16.47	17.3406	T	T	2.57	-29.43	49	417.33320813394	73.434040791362	0.56174556306751	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	29.28	15.41	22.345	176.80239271511	0.0033	0.7933	16.65	17.4433	T	T	-2.72	-39.72	49	417.71905165729	73.853727815697	0.31423507529708	87	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-15 04:00:05	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	36.06	13.36	24.71	178.71317921246	0.0039	0.8239	16.91	17.7339	T	T	4.06	-37.94	49	418.59142276376	74.807803953179	0.63135977531788	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	36.08	15.31	25.695	173.38377236011	0.0045	0.9545	16.5	17.4545	T	T	4.08	-27.92	49	416.1476747111	72.153253700298	0.63227086978638	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.32	16.68	26	173.42463142325	0.0002	0.9002	16.79	17.6902	T	T	3.32	-28.68	49	416.16653635586	72.173528178206	0.59717073057409	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.57	17.49	26.53	173.39575198551	0.0006	0.9106	16.77	17.6806	T	T	3.57	-26.43	49	416.15320503188	72.159197927681	0.60881894397084	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 11:59:30	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.43	18.03	26.73	175.2721790259	0.0006	0.9406	16.59	17.5306	T	T	3.43	-32.57	49	417.01737191793	73.091543467709	0.60230723858055	87	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.45	17.92	26.685	177.31931281187	0.0008	1.0208	16.86	17.8808	T	T	3.45	-41.55	49	417.95546986674	74.111576702733	0.6032392752821	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-14 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.85	18.13	26.99	178.11039032819	0.0008	1.1108	17.16	18.2708	T	T	3.85	-37.15	49	418.31667603558	74.506546449487	0.62174959366851	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.89	18.15	27.02	176.71069083708	0.0008	1.0008	17.26	18.2608	T	T	3.89	-35.11	49	417.6770785236	73.808005092719	0.6235861268685	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	36.93	17.58	27.255	180.26915149215	0.0007	1.1707	17.15	18.3207	T	T	4.93	-21.07	49	419.29868214491	75.586617652039	0.67024680615838	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:02:17	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	36.32	17.68	27	153.73018039082	0.0007	1.3407	4.25	5.5907	T	F	4.32	-53.68	49	406.84429517567	62.544246888333	0.64314468292058	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	36.33	17.69	27.01	154.60153563193	0.0007	1.4107	4.28	5.6907	T	F	4.33	-53.67	49	407.26668015304	62.964054163377	0.64359531671578	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:02:14	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.72	20.06	27.89	154.73646393166	0.0159	1.3859	4.23	5.6159	T	F	3.72	-51.28	49	407.33200240634	63.029113698559	0.61576204386987	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.74	20.06	27.9	154.3649815353	0.0159	1.3159	4.25	5.5659	T	F	3.74	-51.26	49	407.15210419954	62.850027046818	0.61668504503068	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.46	19.8	27.63	17.884375969683	0.0156	1.3556	4.26	5.6156	T	F	3.46	-50.54	49	328.11822888616	5.8681897679065	0.6037050729718	87	3	1	1	4	2	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.47	19.8	27.635	18.429534264195	0.0156	1.3056	4.3	5.6056	T	F	3.47	-52.53	49	328.49153774213	6.0539460503166	0.60417072270999	87	3	1	1	4	2	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-13 00:02:17	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.51	19.81	27.66	156.04581817425	0.0156	1.3256	4.19	5.5156	T	F	3.51	-60.49	49	407.9647330491	63.661190554887	0.6060318295112	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	35.53	19.81	27.67	155.23514149594	0.0156	1.3556	4.15	5.5056	T	F	3.53	-48.47	49	407.57323084074	63.26968815952	0.60696147879337	87	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	39.96	22.9	31.43	157.18205953453	0.0024	1.2924	4.77	6.0624	T	F	7.96	-38.04	49	408.51210605286	64.210774174178	0.79011268983367	87	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	39.97	22.91	31.44	157.10498243731	0.0024	1.2924	4.78	6.0724	T	F	7.97	-33.03	49	408.47502485162	64.173461605396	0.790460809772	87	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-02-12 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	40.01	22.93	31.47	19.45296436089	0.0024	1.2924	4.72	6.0124	T	F	8.01	-33.99	49	329.19095892183	6.4037399918334	0.79184989568564	87	4	1	1	4	2	2	24	WET	L
2020-02-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	40.13	21.67	30.9	18.070342629051	0.0013	1.5013	4.36	5.8613	T	F	8.13	-31.87	49	328.24563164753	5.93151103036	0.79598447982831	87	4	1	1	5	2	2	30	WET	L
2020-02-12 00:02:15	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	40.17	21.69	30.93	154.95638310375	0.0013	1.5013	4.22	5.7213	T	F	8.17	-31.83	49	407.43842295349	63.135184358366	0.79735174826887	87	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	39.59	23.41	31.5	158.76358987833	0.013	2.253	4.35	6.603	T	T	7.59	-30.41	49	409.2713676824	64.977391567672	0.77699549699579	87	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-11 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	39.2	27.97	33.585	160.60972130326	0.0327	2.4027	4.33	6.7327	T	T	7.2	-23.8	49	410.15380954804	65.874689042983	0.76267813798226	87	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	39.21	27.98	33.595	160.74915677711	0.0323	2.4023	4.33	6.7323	T	T	7.21	-23.79	49	410.22029111132	65.942565889005	0.76305143612939	87	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	32.77	29.8	31.285	168.36669712056	0.3388	3.5088	4.32	7.8288	T	T	0.77	-32.23	49	413.81671679351	69.672953819796	0.47523141757013	87	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-11 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	32.89	31.09	31.99	32.237037440677	0.1794	2.9994	4.57	7.5694	T	T	0.89	-42.11	49	337.77621420863	10.888904464014	0.48100790845436	87	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	141	-144	32.9	32.09	32.495	31.886203992126	0.0975	2.9175	4.72	7.6375	T	T	0.9	-36.1	49	337.54431018013	10.763006730785	0.48148947954965	87	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L