Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, February 16, 2020

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DAY 139 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/17/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 24.77°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 18.91°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.84°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.126 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -7 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -35 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.59 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.13 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 18.54 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 19.67 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 187 in SWE DAY: 47 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 420.82 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 78.54 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -146 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-17 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	139	-146	24.76994	18.91004	21.83999	186.62528291667	0.59000000000003	1.13	18.54	19.67	T	T	-7.23006	-35.23006	47	420.8182530014	78.535325522884	0.12638317888182	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-17 00:00:04	FORECAST	2020	140	-146	21.94	21.94	21.94	175.12533184424	0.0243	0.5643	18.54	19.1043	T	T	-10.06	-38.06	47	415.56943166234	72.77673462419	0.068398126741709	89	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-16 12:00:02	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.96	20.22	24.59	175.08647462129	0.5244	1.0644	18.54	19.6044	T	T	-3.04	-31.04	47	415.55143523101	72.757435818415	0.26279639941386	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-16 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.93	19.24	24.085	175.14699163564	0.5649	1.1049	18.54	19.6449	T	T	-3.07	-31.07	47	415.57946246129	72.787492635652	0.26160986538175	89	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-16 04:00:03	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	26.93	22.78	24.855	175.11740611566	0.5201	1.0601	18.54	19.6001	T	T	-5.07	-33.07	47	415.5657610648	72.772798148147	0.18909437923332	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	25.74	22.91	24.325	175.01411962581	0.6667	1.2167	18.54	19.7567	T	T	-6.26	-30.26	47	415.51791982422	72.721502926783	0.15249673599446	89	1	1	1	4	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-15 20:00:01	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	26.01	21.04	23.525	173.61854691343	0.5802	2.0502	18.54	20.5902	T	T	-5.99	-21.99	47	414.87027289365	72.029173937373	0.16035902300226	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	26.47	22.9	24.685	173.9789913839	0.6512	2.1212	18.54	20.6612	T	T	-5.53	-21.53	47	415.0377652247	72.207851780021	0.17435165821012	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 12:00:03	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	29.53	22.82	26.175	175.21896689201	0.7198	2.1898	18.54	20.7298	T	T	-2.47	-18.47	47	415.61279073598	72.823243819864	0.28585044299467	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-15 08:00:03	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	25.75	22.77	24.26	175.81315884056	0.5973	2.2473	18.54	20.7873	T	T	-6.25	-23.25	47	415.88769975477	73.118530216819	0.15278330292044	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 04:00:04	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	26.35	23.25	24.8	177.73513668318	0.6331	2.5431	18.54	21.0831	T	T	-5.65	-27.65	47	416.77408636751	74.075399206538	0.170628880716	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-15 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.45	22.84	25.645	172.3624554049	0.7524	2.2524	18.54	20.7924	T	T	-3.55	-17.55	47	414.28538906341	71.407246897344	0.24300563895489	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	26.21	22.96	24.585	172.54310957283	0.7178	2.5078	18.54	21.0478	T	T	-5.79	-18.79	47	414.36962342766	71.496623338729	0.16635030302516	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	26.69	23.07	24.88	172.61034580072	0.7453	2.5153	18.54	21.0553	T	T	-5.31	-17.31	47	414.40096407258	71.52989370872	0.18130931656347	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 11:59:30	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	26.39	23.02	24.705	174.39744705243	0.7703	2.3603	18.54	20.9003	T	T	-5.61	-21.61	47	415.2320221071	72.415404589897	0.17186412612884	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	26.29	22.88	24.585	176.61424731494	0.8904	2.7504	18.54	21.2904	T	T	-5.71	-24.71	47	416.25767542843	73.51703603486	0.1687866716787	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 04:00:02	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	26.49	23.07	24.78	177.26862153789	0.9618	3.1218	18.54	21.6618	T	T	-5.51	-21.51	47	416.5593342835	73.842898977177	0.17497708908542	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	29	22.72	25.86	175.76856309109	0.8293	3.2593	18.37	21.6293	T	T	-3	-20	47	415.86708147069	73.096359346988	0.26438270944239	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	29.77	22.52	26.145	179.12382918038	0.9512	3.3112	18.33	21.6412	T	T	-2.23	-13.23	47	417.41184255546	74.768407583774	0.29583673540494	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:02:17	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.79	23	25.895	152.15817453264	1.0641	3.5241	5.33	8.8541	T	T	-3.21	-45.21	47	404.61651823165	61.565710799879	0.25610924154558	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.74	22.86	25.8	153.02284454838	1.1305	3.5905	5.36	8.9505	T	T	-3.26	-45.26	47	405.04055355021	61.980457661703	0.25415943303445	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:02:14	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	27.11	23.25	25.18	152.35308138392	0.9865	3.3965	5.36	8.7565	T	T	-4.89	-41.89	47	404.71218212793	61.659148020802	0.19506587971125	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	27.17	22.8	24.985	151.95978076175	0.9247	3.3747	5.34	8.7147	T	T	-4.83	-41.83	47	404.51909424021	61.470632874686	0.19708152608276	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	27.08	23.54	25.31	15.367159307878	0.9612	3.4212	5.34	8.7612	T	T	-4.92	-40.92	47	324.31643695026	4.9838223527779	0.19406276302975	89	1	1	1	5	3	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	27.37	20.31	23.84	15.112165436331	0.7924	3.2524	5.38	8.6324	T	T	-4.63	-41.63	47	324.13918373927	4.8984449690651	0.20389064593324	89	1	1	1	5	3	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-02-13 00:02:17	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	27.14	19.94	23.54	152.68082952641	0.8113	3.1413	5.4	8.5413	T	T	-4.86	-50.86	47	404.87294025375	61.816336370741	0.19607213523823	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	27.67	23.52	25.595	151.85380871636	0.8351	3.1351	5.39	8.5251	T	T	-4.33	-39.33	47	404.46703509006	61.41985977864	0.21436263885138	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.25	23.72	25.985	156.53447469621	1.1478	4.0678	5.39	9.4578	T	T	-3.75	-34.75	47	406.75312219139	63.670886313273	0.23547016465923	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.26	23.73	25.995	156.4532590183	1.1478	4.0178	5.45	9.4678	T	T	-3.74	-29.74	47	406.71368685093	63.631681795175	0.23584385521014	89	1	1	1	5	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-12 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.29	23.77	26.03	18.788109102326	1.1478	3.9778	5.43	9.4078	T	T	-3.71	-30.71	47	326.68336439992	6.1377626922607	0.23696688279411	89	1	1	1	5	2	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	33.45	23.22	28.335	17.612032037428	1.4078	3.8778	5.43	9.3078	T	T	1.45	-28.55	47	325.87196505428	5.7392674886357	0.46426560300339	89	2	1	1	5	2	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-12 00:02:15	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	33.47	23.24	28.355	154.48831490045	1.4078	3.8378	5.33	9.1678	T	T	1.47	-28.53	47	405.75709882081	62.684730455722	0.46523036297624	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	30.8	23.23	27.015	157.57373043211	2.0599	4.5999	5.35	9.9499	T	T	-1.2	-26.2	47	407.25702905737	64.173009313269	0.34039844210483	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-11 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	29.67	24.35	27.01	157.98028188776	1.9524	4.4024	5.42	9.8224	T	T	-2.33	-19.33	47	407.45379313704	64.369665096025	0.29165633856825	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	29.68	24.36	27.02	158.07757207512	1.9524	4.4024	5.42	9.8224	T	T	-2.32	-19.32	47	407.5008498323	64.416744960037	0.29207313804382	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	30	24.63	27.315	159.75267679377	2.0533	4.3033	5.61	9.9133	T	T	-2	-23	47	408.3092327006	65.228492883531	0.30555445732854	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-11 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.09	24.69	26.39	23.566961390504	1.6739	4.1439	5.64	9.7839	T	T	-3.91	-32.91	47	329.95556951319	7.7760501672993	0.22953568622259	89	1	1	1	5	2	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	28.11	24.72	26.415	23.599355308092	1.6739	4.2439	5.69	9.9339	T	T	-3.89	-26.89	47	329.9776152215	7.7872589853291	0.23027289005928	89	1	1	1	5	2	2	15	WET	L
2020-02-10 16:02:16	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	31.71	24.93	28.32	162.78721148529	2.4945	4.4245	5.91	10.3345	T	T	-0.29	-20.29	47	409.76492764252	66.704489935396	0.38174146758215	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	31.98	28.39	30.185	162.4843384186	2.0423	4.1623	5.98	10.1423	T	T	-0.02	-27.02	47	409.62014009967	66.556857467029	0.39429769481229	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	32.02	28.42	30.22	162.57681801982	2.0423	4.1623	5.93	10.0923	T	T	0.020000000000003	-18.98	47	409.66436150346	66.601928349355	0.39616760301805	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-10 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	32.04	28.28	30.16	23.6142914741	2.0921	3.7521	5.99	9.7421	T	T	0.039999999999999	-15.96	47	329.98777943107	7.7924276063762	0.39710345644006	89	2	1	1	5	2	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	32.1	28.32	30.21	160.7733599021	2.0921	3.7521	5.97	9.7221	T	T	0.1	-9.9	47	408.80011682644	65.724168310559	0.39991455235208	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-09 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	35.56	27.13	31.345	155.16920391572	0.688	2.828	5.93	8.758	T	T	3.56	5.56	47	406.08911473081	63.012524651618	0.56609378419689	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	35.34	28.57	31.955	152.9557864318	0.5995	2.4795	5.54	8.0195	T	T	3.34	5.34	47	405.00770146273	61.948271488169	0.55556421097642	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	30.3	28.62	29.46	153.21488327038	0.5433	2.4233	5.51	7.9333	T	T	-1.7	1.3	47	405.13460327396	62.072650949412	0.3184374909528	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-09 08:01:15	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	32.17	30.4	31.285	141.36727693899	0.6265	1.7665	5.67	7.4365	T	T	0.17	4.17	47	399.24556482553	56.440258329352	0.40320072050382	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-02-09 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	139	-146	30.99	30.49	30.74	5.6018035482824	0.1691	1.6091	5.58	7.1891	T	T	-1.01	5.99	47	317.44560950794	1.7782679417282	0.34889276396501	89	2	1	1	5	4	2	40	WET	L