Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, February 13, 2020

[ Wednesday, February 12, 2020 | Index | Today | Friday, February 14, 2020 ]

DAY 136 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/14/2020 04:00:02 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.20°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.33°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.27°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.407 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 0 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -10 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.21 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.43 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 21.64 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 22.07 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 166 in SWE DAY: 44 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 409.32 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 68.09 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -149 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 4.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-14 04:00:02	OBSERVATION	2020	136	-149	32.19998	20.33006	26.26502	166.34153083333	0.20999999999998	0.42999999999998	21.64	22.07	T	T	0.19998	-9.80002	44	409.31813613038	68.086605361775	0.40726432843812	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2020	137	-149	27.39	27.39	27.39	166.17011094446	0.0404	0.2604	21.64	21.9004	T	T	-4.61	-14.61	44	409.23600847957	68.002792931518	0.22366965634674	88	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:02:16	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	28.86	23.64	26.25	138.36410784746	0.3421	0.3521	8.51	8.8621	T	T	-3.14	-40.14	44	395.42936613485	54.713231461934	0.27448266709507	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-13 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	30.08	25.11	27.595	138.34785514204	0.3738	0.3838	8.51	8.8938	T	T	-1.92	-38.92	44	395.42100759558	54.705648278951	0.32057794366941	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:02:14	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.33	23.73	29.03	138.25432851537	0.3671	0.3771	8.51	8.8871	T	T	2.33	-34.67	44	395.3729014519	54.662015003404	0.4992021694261	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-13 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.47	24.16	29.315	138.08341218556	0.3492	0.3592	8.51	8.8692	T	T	2.47	-34.53	44	395.28495978587	54.582296032866	0.50530077093579	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.72	25.52	30.12	1.0701029044127	0.3474	0.3574	8.51	8.8674	T	T	2.72	-34.28	44	310.94608423018	0.33274430785047	0.51618712211014	88	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-13 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.85	24.93	29.89	1.2388220356156	0.3935	0.4035	8.51	8.9135	T	T	2.85	-34.15	44	311.06903100711	0.3853591702092	0.52184377256944	88	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-13 00:02:17	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	30.92	25.32	28.12	138.45089055817	0.4128	0.4228	8.51	8.9328	T	T	-1.08	-38.08	44	395.47399143047	54.753726306144	0.35406948792474	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-13 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.01	25.37	29.69	138.32466498841	0.4015	0.4115	8.51	8.9215	T	T	2.01	-34.99	44	395.40908062621	54.694828610995	0.48526550207319	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:02:16	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	33.88	25.93	29.905	138.21059329997	0.3862	0.4062	8.51	8.9162	T	T	1.88	-26.12	44	395.35040198387	54.641613619574	0.47960790623245	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-12 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.55	26.15	30.35	138.41171541888	0.4456	0.4656	8.51	8.9756	T	T	2.55	-24.45	44	395.45384805791	54.735445478691	0.50878522133495	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-12 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.42	25.41	29.915	1.495690180977	0.4276	0.4476	8.51	8.9576	T	T	2.42	-24.58	44	311.25611142778	0.4655427096316	0.50312276716163	88	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.42	25.03	29.725	1.5502750285484	0.4187	0.4487	8.51	8.9587	T	T	2.42	-29.58	44	311.29585056182	0.48259418361673	0.50312276716163	88	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	L
2020-02-12 00:02:15	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	30.66	26.14	28.4	138.15237839029	0.3245	0.3545	8.51	8.8645	T	T	-1.34	-28.34	44	395.32044959681	54.614460338118	0.34356680637063	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.25	27.3	30.775	138.04746401442	0.349	0.369	8.51	8.879	T	T	2.25	-24.75	44	395.26645849527	54.565532205233	0.49571724657488	88	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-11 16:02:14	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.81	26.08	30.445	137.96401315854	0.3296	0.4396	8.51	8.9496	T	T	2.81	-16.19	44	395.22350268899	54.526620525546	0.52010368030976	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-11 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.82	26.09	30.455	137.96773730558	0.3296	0.4396	8.51	8.9496	T	T	2.82	-16.18	44	395.2254198645	54.528356904351	0.52053874059339	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	33.52	26.68	30.1	138.58138018459	0.5082	0.6282	8.51	9.1382	T	T	1.52	-17.48	44	395.54107312831	54.814627833817	0.46396563551911	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-11 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	28.72	26.2	27.46	2.3269230374929	0.5261	0.6561	8.51	9.1661	T	T	-3.28	-26.28	44	311.86067324649	0.72567578506529	0.2694093197053	88	2	1	1	3	4	2	24	WET	L
2020-02-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	33.77	25.64	29.705	2.0476151882049	0.5766	0.7066	8.51	9.2166	T	T	1.77	-22.23	44	311.65767295245	0.63815498465805	0.47482387079191	88	2	1	1	3	4	2	24	WET	L
2020-02-10 16:02:16	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	32.93	24.36	28.645	140.64787094107	0.8062	0.9262	8.51	9.4362	T	T	0.93	-23.07	44	396.60044946675	55.781008831772	0.43846068983389	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	29.73	26.07	27.9	140.7098336089	0.8927	1.0027	8.51	9.5127	T	T	-2.27	-26.27	44	396.63212853902	55.810040810668	0.30702405356325	88	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	31.61	26.11	28.86	140.34452405268	0.8522	0.9522	8.51	9.4622	T	T	-0.39	-18.39	44	396.44528817404	55.638925281715	0.38246579014643	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-10 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	35.92	25.65	30.785	2.7705351844466	0.8739	1.0139	8.51	9.5239	T	T	3.92	-19.08	44	312.18279365425	0.86491341379794	0.56813202821007	88	3	1	1	4	4	2	40	WET	L
2020-02-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	35.96	25.7	30.83	139.16187889729	0.7588	0.9888	8.51	9.4988	T	T	3.96	-13.04	44	395.8392247722	55.085730260547	0.56984840973101	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.8	23.96	29.38	140.14200838944	0.7959	0.9359	8.52	9.4559	T	T	2.8	-2.2	44	396.3416352715	55.544112775302	0.51966859607589	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	35.97	24.86	30.415	138.52655801596	0.4162	0.5562	8.51	9.0662	T	T	3.97	-1.03	44	395.5128930281	54.789039722116	0.57027730030451	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	36.01	24.95	30.48	138.39261683166	0.4162	0.5262	8.51	9.0362	T	T	4.01	0.009999999999998	44	395.44402707356	54.726533717158	0.57199202851324	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 08:01:15	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	40.26	27.33	33.795	136.7735420375	0.5707	0.6907	8.51	9.2007	T	T	8.26	0.26	44	394.60972267059	53.972169492094	0.74071374318333	88	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-09 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	38.97	26.7	32.835	0.98972673316932	0.477	0.597	8.51	9.107	T	T	6.97	1.97	44	310.88749503676	0.30769366484593	0.69310524819978	88	3	1	1	3	4	2	30	WET	H
2020-02-09 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	40.25	26.87	33.56	137.40357935801	0.4792	0.6092	8.51	9.1192	T	T	8.25	5.25	44	394.93478687444	54.265453329541	0.74035987647408	88	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-08 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	37.04	25.51	31.275	138.635945878	0.6997	0.8297	8.61	9.4397	T	T	5.04	12.04	44	395.56911749695	54.840098764316	0.61559024338858	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	36.6	25.01	30.805	137.42627046993	0.5958	0.6658	8.61	9.2758	T	T	4.6	10.6	44	394.94648452351	54.276022403277	0.59710983125678	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	36.66	25.06	30.86	137.77377735385	0.5958	0.6658	8.62	9.2858	T	T	4.66	10.66	44	395.12554595514	54.437938995241	0.59964371100132	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.76	26.62	30.69	140.79415576442	0.5611	0.6111	8.92	9.5311	T	T	2.76	0.76	44	396.67523112857	55.849554279404	0.51792802998872	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 04:01:15	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.33	25.87	30.1	5.2646288537942	0.5596	0.6296	9.31	9.9396	T	T	2.33	7.33	44	313.98709041987	1.6530254959433	0.4992021694261	88	3	1	1	3	4	2	30	WET	L
2020-02-08 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	34.37	25.91	30.14	144.04435685023	0.5596	0.6296	9.67	10.2996	T	T	2.37	7.37	44	398.32960612154	57.377131928182	0.5009446703037	88	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-02-07 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	32.91	24.52	28.715	143.02255970427	0.7532	0.8332	10.89	11.7232	T	T	0.91	16.91	44	397.81097542919	56.895943984336	0.4375999708174	88	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-07 16:01:15	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	33.54	24.2	28.87	144.88170810405	0.9705	1.0205	10.97	11.9905	T	T	1.54	14.54	44	398.75361577416	57.772104966025	0.46483341523279	88	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	33.61	24.23	28.92	146.81748105692	0.9705	1.0205	10.88	11.9005	T	T	1.61	14.61	44	399.7303880265	58.687408671955	0.46787193463152	88	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-02-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	39.64	30.35	34.995	141.43370043037	0.1328	0.1328	11.07	11.2028	T	T	7.64	21.64	44	397.00184403273	56.14943987923	0.71831326243569	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-07 04:01:16	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	38.89	29.14	34.015	6.1004511624089	0.133	0.133	11.47	11.603	T	T	6.89	23.89	44	314.58919495175	1.9191360200247	0.69003004197945	88	3	1	1	2	4	2	20	WET	H
2020-02-07 00:01:13	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	39.39	28.9	34.145	140.66931064363	0.133	0.133	11.97	12.103	T	T	7.39	30.39	44	396.6114113066	55.791053821898	0.70902437132591	88	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	38.62	28.91	33.765	140.76687755542	0.11	0.16	14.03	14.19	T	T	6.62	20.62	44	396.66128845525	55.836771022954	0.67955377715223	88	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-06 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	38.04	29.71	33.875	141.2531499062	0.0261	0.0761	14.12	14.1961	T	T	6.04	24.04	44	396.9096913447	56.064744130735	0.65656858794904	88	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	33.18	29.75	31.465	141.24444134241	0.0141	0.0641	14.04	14.1041	T	T	1.18	20.18	44	396.90524543974	56.060659658007	0.44924294277571	88	2	1	1	1	1	2	2	WET	L
2020-02-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	20.05	19.54	19.795	141.80417118323	0	0.3	14.69	14.99	T	T	-11.95	-7.95	44	397.19079941905	56.323312113224	0.059088831904093	88	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-06 04:00:12	FORECAST	2020	136	-149	12.09	11.77	11.93	10.876783146072	0	0.58	15.62	16.2	T	T	-19.91	-19.91	44	318.00552340793	3.4588771173612	0.0074209031283167	88	1	1	1	3	3	2	13.5	WET	L