Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, February 11, 2020

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DAY 134 OF WATER YEAR 2020, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 02/13/2020 02:44:01 PM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 31.10°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 25.00°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.05°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.294 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -7 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.12 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.14 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 22.94 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 23.08 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 168 in SWE DAY: 42 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 393.19 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 66.06 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -151 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 1 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 1.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-02-12 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	26.79	26.65	26.72	137.03224925416	0.0074	0.0174	9.82	9.8374	T	T	-5.21	-30.21	42	393.19339089991	53.880174746883	0.13709603492862	86	1	1	1	1	1	2	1.5	WET	L
2020-02-11 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	36.14	27.15	31.645	137.18295635567	0.0939	0.1039	9.82	9.9239	T	T	4.14	-20.86	42	393.27173678259	53.950179502965	0.54174620775839	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-11 04:02:14	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	31.61	26.53	29.07	0.31573772973432	0.1036	0.1136	9.82	9.9336	T	T	-0.39	-25.39	42	308.20237164706	0.097311117122577	0.31717401176092	86	2	1	1	2	4	2	16	WET	L
2020-02-11 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	31.02	26.75	28.885	0.32964630845451	0.1044	0.1144	9.82	9.9344	T	T	-0.98	-25.98	42	308.21260584325	0.10160114773537	0.29074158403616	86	2	1	1	2	4	2	16	WET	L
2020-02-10 16:02:16	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	31.49	27.39	29.44	137.27747465343	0.0887	0.0987	9.82	9.9187	T	T	-0.51	-25.51	42	393.3208573184	53.994094021194	0.31171579436901	86	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-10 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	36.08	27.65	31.865	136.94891522028	0.0655	0.0755	9.82	9.8955	T	T	4.08	-20.92	42	393.15005638395	53.841473740574	0.53869474019059	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-10 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	37.12	27.88	32.5	136.93511794084	0.062	0.072	9.82	9.892	T	T	5.12	-19.88	42	393.14288077806	53.835066746945	0.59111146669881	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-10 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	37.16	27.83	32.495	0.12036690602739	0.074	0.084	9.82	9.904	T	T	5.16	-24.84	42	308.058575872	0.037080057652916	0.59310144582833	86	3	1	1	1	4	2	10	WET	H
2020-02-10 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	36.86	27.91	32.385	136.9907552135	0.0823	0.0923	9.82	9.9123	T	T	4.86	-19.14	42	393.17181473785	53.8609038296	0.57812152430909	86	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-02-09 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	36.67	27.49	32.08	136.85193716511	0.0528	0.0728	9.82	9.8928	T	T	4.67	-7.33	42	393.0996152934	53.796443851763	0.56857397971544	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	36.87	27.43	32.15	136.88466908683	0.0484	0.0584	9.82	9.8784	T	T	4.87	-7.13	42	393.11664150143	53.811641384448	0.57862280836549	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	35.98	27.34	31.66	136.90251231886	0.0693	0.0793	9.82	9.8993	T	T	3.98	-8.02	42	393.12592244345	53.819926440179	0.53360398307491	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 08:01:15	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	37.92	27.54	32.73	136.60889152504	0.0363	0.0463	9.82	9.8663	T	T	5.92	-6.08	42	392.97314562519	53.683625822965	0.63039985844056	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-09 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	37.88	27.55	32.715	0	0.0415	0.0515	9.82	9.8715	T	T	5.88	-9.12	42	307.96994854332	0	0.62846370344668	86	3	1	1	1	5	2	12.5	WET	H
2020-02-09 00:00:17	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	37.74	27.43	32.585	136.68574867945	0.0356	0.0456	9.82	9.8656	T	T	5.74	-6.26	42	393.01314696161	53.719296233316	0.62166183300466	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 20:01:13	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	39.8	26.72	33.26	136.57204382258	0.0199	0.0299	9.92	9.9499	T	T	7.8	3.8	42	392.95396497488	53.666526124806	0.71695327944713	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-08 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	40.33	25.08	32.705	136.52951994535	0.0095	0.0195	9.92	9.9395	T	T	8.33	4.33	42	392.93182742527	53.646793769621	0.73947684096473	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-08 12:01:14	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	40.25	27.07	33.66	136.85390683627	0.0098	0.0298	9.92	9.9498	T	T	8.25	4.25	42	393.10063989994	53.797358350143	0.73613703459791	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-08 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	35.34	27.66	31.5	138.33662678586	0.0024	0.0024	10.24	10.2424	T	T	3.34	-3.66	42	393.87048597411	54.486714420164	0.50092834765039	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-08 04:01:15	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	40.93	26.86	33.895	2.4756221454094	0.0033	0.0033	10.63	10.6333	T	T	8.93	2.93	42	309.78733205861	0.76691637961159	0.76381485388993	86	4	1	1	1	4	2	12	WET	H
2020-02-08 00:00:15	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	40.95	29.54	35.245	141.17291123356	0.0028	0.0028	10.99	10.9928	T	T	8.95	2.95	42	395.33506587726	55.810602162604	0.76460400703031	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-07 20:01:15	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	40.27	30.3	35.285	139.9509926394	0.0026	0.0126	12.2	12.2126	T	T	8.27	14.27	42	394.70539387144	55.239411672433	0.73697402533304	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-07 16:01:15	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	41.44	29.76	35.6	140.1801515281	0.0025	0.0125	12.28	12.2925	T	T	9.44	14.44	42	394.82363163649	55.346436509678	0.78347802196862	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-07 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	41.47	29.78	35.625	141.94664000588	0.0025	0.0125	12.19	12.2025	T	T	9.47	14.47	42	395.73276995829	56.172937035798	0.78460446025047	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-07 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	41.73	29.51	35.62	141.81445819514	0.0032	0.0032	12.39	12.3932	T	T	9.73	10.73	42	395.66488257305	56.111000948942	0.79422382198484	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-07 04:01:16	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	40.63	28.89	34.76	6.4568882323167	0.0032	0.0032	12.79	12.7932	T	T	8.63	13.63	42	312.68616536456	2.0189796215506	0.75180469593534	86	4	1	1	1	4	2	12	WET	H
2020-02-07 00:01:13	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	41.46	28.82	35.14	141.10836849856	0.0032	0.0032	13.29	13.2932	T	T	9.46	19.46	42	395.30185495411	55.78039981703	0.78422935838462	86	4	1	1	1	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-06 20:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	38.47	27.69	33.08	140.99276022208	0.0173	0.0173	15.35	15.3673	T	T	6.47	14.47	42	395.24235428169	55.72631048685	0.6566683331584	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 16:01:14	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	38	28.15	33.075	141.44677923953	0.0174	0.0174	15.44	15.4574	T	T	6	18	42	395.47592605733	55.938796007579	0.63426222490395	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	38.05	28.17	33.11	141.32961200908	0.0174	0.0174	15.36	15.3774	T	T	6.05	19.05	42	395.4156747232	55.883943890937	0.63666934225114	86	3	1	1	1	1	2	2.5	WET	L
2020-02-06 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	33	25.94	29.47	141.37491810482	0.226	0.406	15.83	16.236	T	T	1	8	42	395.43897476905	55.905152673427	0.38304006997938	86	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-06 04:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	30.91	21.22	26.065	9.5442381340612	0.4512	0.6312	16.76	17.3912	T	T	-1.09	7.91	42	314.91402810115	3.0056144759538	0.28592959741107	86	2	1	1	3	3	2	18	WET	L
2020-02-06 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	30.94	21.25	26.095	143.91414128866	0.4512	0.6312	17.35	17.9812	T	T	-1.06	10.94	42	396.74057092422	57.096578578932	0.28723820111839	86	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-02-05 20:00:10	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	27.63	17.7	22.665	147.86502426334	0.5663	0.7763	19.15	19.9263	T	T	-4.37	8.63	42	398.74915943455	58.961054134777	0.16213170961529	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	28.31	17.31	22.81	149.63167023682	0.6286	0.9086	19.28	20.1886	T	T	-3.69	7.31	42	399.64080314827	59.79892086986	0.18444609506441	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 12:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	28.35	17.34	22.845	150.30845247202	0.6286	0.9086	19.28	20.1886	T	T	-3.65	6.35	42	399.98132327088	60.120573718556	0.18581549444643	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 08:00:10	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	27.93	17.98	22.955	152.25431518001	0.6662	0.9862	19.22	20.2062	T	T	-4.07	2.93	42	400.95712118167	61.047451902065	0.17175092229879	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-05 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	27.43	20.45	23.94	18.791742093656	0.66	0.97	19.7	20.67	T	T	-4.57	4.43	42	321.48353292373	6.04123563806	0.1559172042195	86	1	1	1	3	2	2	9	WET	L
2020-02-05 00:00:12	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	27.48	20.49	23.985	154.79795252837	0.66	0.97	19.93	20.9	T	T	-4.52	4.48	42	402.22543578727	62.263673914703	0.15745594995804	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 20:01:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	28.62	20.95	24.785	150.84501352996	0.6079	0.6079	20.04	20.6479	T	T	-3.38	10.62	42	400.25087600176	60.375848805866	0.19522264482274	86	1	1	1	3	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-02-04 16:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	31.29	25.08	28.185	145.947207623	0.3846	0.3846	19.68	20.0646	T	T	-0.71	12.29	42	397.77667837453	58.054395466316	0.30271039245389	86	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-04 12:00:10	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	30.25	25.12	27.685	147.44285417219	0.2618	0.2618	19.46	19.7218	T	T	-1.75	11.25	42	398.53549305408	58.761210584813	0.2578803730593	86	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-02-04 08:00:11	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	25.06	22.98	24.02	155.1921775556	0.2087	0.2987	20.34	20.6387	T	T	-6.94	2.06	42	402.42127284043	62.452633626804	0.094180121783137	86	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	WET	L
2020-02-04 04:00:13	FORECAST	2020	134	-151	27.31	26.03	26.67	18.165151864118	0.0692	0.0792	19.83	19.9092	T	T	-4.69	13.31	42	321.04325501871	5.8317994823655	0.15226468301539	86	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	WET	L