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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 8, 2020

[ Monday, December 7, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 9, 2020 ]

DAY 69 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/09/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.75°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.27°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.849
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 136

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.55 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.73 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.27 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.00 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 53 in
SWE DAY: 24
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.25 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 17.15 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 149

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 13.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-09 07:00:07OBSERVATION20216914943.7500435.2700639.5100552.5671520833330.550000000000010.730000000000013.274TF11.75004135.7500424326.2487360846 17.1499669267540.8491514457483889 53131213.5WETL
2020-12-09 03:00:07OBSERVATION20216914943.7500435.2700639.5100552.5671520833330.550000000000010.730000000000013.274TF11.75004135.7500424326.2487360846 17.1499669267540.8491514457483889 53131213.5WETL
2020-12-08 11:00:50FORECAST20216914947.8738.0842.97555.2099573333330.72080.90083.274.1708TF15.87139.8724328.0661496825318.1125181264830.921177365364238953131213.5WETL
2020-12-08 07:00:07FORECAST20216914946.5137.8242.16555.4125744166670.89751.07753.274.3475TF14.51138.5124328.2049832415518.1866830577930.901032321035238953141218WETL
2020-12-08 03:00:07FORECAST20216914942.6738.0340.3555.407763750.95361.13363.274.4036TF10.67134.6724328.2016877928418.1849215795770.824642369686088943141216WETL
2020-12-07 23:00:02FORECAST20216914943.4237.9340.67555.9273853333331.08381.27383.274.5438TF11.42131.4224328.5574112949418.3753569456150.841915812769268943141216WETL
2020-12-07 19:00:04FORECAST20216914943.937.7240.8155.903660.92841.11843.274.3884TF11.9131.924328.5411795894118.3666543997660.852365280138978953141218WETL
2020-12-07 15:00:03FORECAST20216914942.3137.5539.9355.9940240.93191.12193.274.3919TF10.31130.3124328.6029969595818.3998040982270.815942515339488943141216WETL
2020-12-07 11:00:05FORECAST20216914942.4935.8639.17555.9565129740360.93881.12883.274.3988TF10.49130.4924328.5773376557618.3860420575090.820325449835618943141216WETL
2020-12-07 07:00:07FORECAST20216914941.7934.2538.0255.3736491613230.74740.93743.274.2074TF9.79134.7924328.1783171369618.1724309954950.802911989807678943131212WETL
2020-12-07 03:00:07FORECAST20216914941.8534.3738.1155.4459917680630.70380.89383.274.1638TF9.85129.8524328.2278740026418.1989199999990.804443330441048943131212WETL
2020-12-06 23:00:04FORECAST20216914941.7334.0837.90555.6843461442410.84980.89983.274.1698TF9.73136.7324328.3910895203418.2862430995350.801373430095568943131212WETL
2020-12-06 19:00:06FORECAST20216914942.8434.0638.4555.1116613496970.70560.74563.274.0156TF10.84136.8424327.9987713689618.0765572108030.828658689280318943131212WETL
2020-12-06 15:00:06FORECAST20216914941.331.8736.58556.354277711750.85690.88693.274.1569TF9.3135.324328.8493029739918.5320649451110.79013706703548943131212WETL
2020-12-06 11:00:05FORECAST20216914941.3732.2636.81556.3027575982750.91750.94753.274.2175TF9.37135.3724328.8140924031918.5131401394740.791991239451638943131212WETL
2020-12-06 07:00:07FORECAST20216914941.0332.6936.8657.0350838633230.98561.06563.274.3356TF9.03136.0324329.314156213818.7824605170340.78289501527628943141216WETL
2020-12-06 03:00:07FORECAST20216914943.4632.6938.07556.512309728220.79290.98293.274.2529TF11.46136.4624328.9572786071818.5901356160020.842804656570778943131212WETL
2020-12-05 23:00:05FORECAST20216914941.3632.9137.13558.4588374216170.89271.12273.34.4227TF9.36128.3624330.2836981923719.3080010156380.791726950143068943141216WETL
2020-12-05 19:00:05FORECAST20216914941.4133.5437.47558.5872916605161.03481.31483.34.6148TF9.41130.4124330.3710001282819.3555421406920.793046419009548943141216WETL
2020-12-05 15:00:05FORECAST20216914940.8334.2737.5559.0819074020841.39431.62433.34.9243TF8.83128.8324330.7068921883219.5387939815010.777438845707128943151220WETL
2020-12-05 11:00:06FORECAST20216914940.6133.8537.2357.8191200566811.17211.45213.34.7521TF8.61128.6124329.8484997747319.0715500089910.771347916602338943141216WETL
2020-12-05 06:59:50FORECAST20216914940.1133.8836.99557.8242457394121.1041.4543.314.764TF8.11128.1124329.8519895772619.0734425029490.757163345151868943141216WETL
2020-12-05 03:00:07FORECAST20216914944.0233.4838.7557.0088388907810.77081.10083.314.4108TF12.02133.0224329.2962510856518.772796925480.854903853452638953141218WETL
2020-12-04 23:00:05FORECAST20216914944.2332.838.51558.0832949034181.06091.40093.314.7109TF12.23134.2324330.0283031021319.1691312555560.859275483957288953141218WETL
2020-12-04 18:58:41FORECAST20216914944.5833.1338.85557.0956693333330.99441.42443.344.7644TF12.58131.5824329.3554849286918.8047718606080.866361659814348953141218WETL
2020-12-04 15:00:46FORECAST20216914943.6932.6938.1956.7918866666670.83821.04823.334.3782TF11.69135.6924329.1481938762318.6929469231570.847851787800378943141216WETL
2020-12-04 11:00:05FORECAST20216914940.7633.7437.2556.1309120.71651.04653.364.4065TF8.76126.7624328.6966140450218.4500407176590.775510906396048943141216WETL
2020-12-04 07:00:07FORECAST20216914940.7733.7637.26556.1633496310260.71651.03653.34.3365TF8.77125.7724328.7187932243818.461948514150.775786904109838943141216WETL
2020-12-04 03:00:08FORECAST20216914940.8333.2937.0656.1450261666670.87171.04173.284.3217TF8.83125.8324328.7062648089318.4552218388450.777438845707128943141216WETL
2020-12-03 23:00:06FORECAST20216914943.3932.1737.7857.6765773333330.58640.62643.293.9164TF11.39140.3924329.7514318749319.0189339613120.841247024810818943131212DRYL
2020-12-03 19:00:06FORECAST20216914943.432.1937.79557.7286746666670.58640.69643.283.9764TF11.4140.424329.7869128836819.0381614031860.84147015937948943131212DRYL
2020-12-03 15:00:06FORECAST20216914944.3933.0738.7358.1847586666670.74670.98673.294.2767TF12.39136.3924330.0973295539819.2066334566090.862545823986998953131213.5WETL
2020-12-03 10:58:47FORECAST20216914945.5134.4739.9957.7322501518060.48560.67563.33.9756TF13.51130.5124329.789347803919.0394811248150.883988003208378953131213.5DRYL
2020-12-03 07:00:07FORECAST20216914945.5234.4739.99556.8317983333330.48560.58563.353.9356TF13.52135.5224329.1754373798518.7076320734590.884168136725688953131213.5DRYL
2020-12-03 03:00:08FORECAST20216914946.6535.0240.83556.9528303333330.46810.80813.344.1481TF14.65134.6524329.2580363318718.7521770790960.903264646913478953131213.5WETL
2020-12-02 23:00:06FORECAST20216914947.6540.2743.9657.8044253333330.56310.80313.374.1731TF15.65140.6524329.8384946737119.0661246374260.918147203739628953131213.5WETL
2020-12-02 19:00:06FORECAST20216914947.6740.2843.97557.9076906666670.56310.87313.364.2331TF15.67135.6724329.9087963636419.1042565280380.91842623669738953131213.5WETL
2020-12-02 15:00:06FORECAST20216914948.4935.9242.20557.8703533333330.54560.74563.364.1056TF16.49140.4924329.8833797231119.0904677433710.929261047824728953131213.5WETL
2020-12-02 11:00:06FORECAST20216914941.634.9938.29557.6343573333330.27710.36713.423.7871TF9.6131.624329.7226744023319.0033544374060.79801518167864894312128DRYL
2020-12-02 07:00:07FORECAST20216914941.623538.3157.4491839166670.27710.36713.423.7871TF9.62132.6224329.5965100829618.9350505260480.79853403153382894312128DRYL
2020-12-02 02:59:52FORECAST20216914943.6734.2538.9657.6284359166670.26830.37833.363.7383TF11.67132.6724329.718640878219.001169566380.84741721550688894312128DRYL
2020-12-01 23:00:04FORECAST20216914948.1239.0743.59556.5506626666670.82050.83053.214.0405TF16.12138.1224328.9834767799418.6042336182890.924517041503598953131213.5WETL
2020-12-01 19:00:06FORECAST20216914948.1739.0943.6356.7511253333330.66180.67183.213.8818TF16.17138.1724329.1203675436118.677951228220.925171888997218953131213.5DRYL
2020-12-01 15:00:06FORECAST20216914946.539.0342.76557.3047981172050.60860.63863.213.8486TF14.5134.524329.4980944343118.8818217815620.900871443657858953131213.5DRYL
2020-12-01 11:00:06FORECAST20216914941.3337.6739.557.7570289718640.93711.38713.364.7471TF9.33123.3324329.8062216755219.0486275004140.790932896825368943141216WETL
2020-12-01 07:00:07FORECAST20216914939.1437.6738.40558.233168634570.74291.19293.364.5529TF7.14121.1424330.1302568989919.2245309213730.728341834724858943141216WETL
2020-12-01 02:59:00FORECAST20216914937.7737.3737.5758.4629651212030.15330.34333.213.5533FF5.77124.7724330.286503962519.3095283611640.68493642446734893312127DRYL