Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 6, 2020

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DAY 67 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/07/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 36.11°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.38°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 33.24°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.666 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 93 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 4 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 105 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.18 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.18 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.66 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.84 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 57 in SWE DAY: 26 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 331.27 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 18.85 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 147 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 2 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-07 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	67	147	36.10994	30.38	33.24497	56.91425625	0.18000000000001	0.18000000000001	4.66	4.84	T	F	4.10994	105.10994	26	331.2658534467	18.85374966994	0.66568949106174	93	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-07 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	67	147	36.10994	30.38	33.24497	56.91425625	0.18000000000001	0.18000000000001	4.66	4.84	T	F	4.10994	105.10994	26	331.2658534467	18.85374966994	0.66568949106174	93	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-06 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	67	147	38.4	31.19	34.795	56.963471752252	0.0326	0.0326	4.66	4.6926	T	F	6.4	107.4	26	331.2991825984	18.871951629488	0.75361979955189	93	4	3	1	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-06 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	39.33	30.78	35.055	57.236420878717	0.0824	0.0824	4.66	4.7424	T	F	7.33	108.33	26	331.48395043105	18.972954901411	0.78543137901473	93	4	3	1	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-06 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	37.09	31.32	34.205	57.561262371003	0.1915	0.1915	4.66	4.8515	T	F	5.09	106.09	26	331.70367895713	19.093282493878	0.70484992450019	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-05 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	67	147	36.25	31.54	33.895	59.424778023215	0.2267	0.2567	4.66	4.9167	T	F	4.25	100.25	26	332.96069663813	19.786115488176	0.6714109405476	93	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-05 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	67	147	39.08	31.58	35.33	59.353703852231	0.2748	0.3048	4.66	4.9648	T	F	7.08	103.08	26	332.9128632536	19.759611494152	0.77712231640169	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-05 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	67	147	37.26	32.98	35.12	59.10319719568	0.1769	0.2069	4.66	4.8669	T	F	5.26	101.26	26	332.74420175493	19.666246172041	0.71142229118441	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-05 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	67	147	36.95	33.38	35.165	58.92605788838	0.2521	0.2821	4.66	4.9421	T	F	4.95	100.95	26	332.62487234513	19.600272482924	0.69938623739002	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-05 06:59:50	FORECAST	2021	67	147	38.17	32.94	35.555	58.923806174189	0.3228	0.3628	4.66	5.0228	T	F	6.17	100.17	26	332.62335513841	19.599434107184	0.74538032401161	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-05 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	38.12	32.12	35.12	58.833940224114	0.2888	0.3288	4.66	4.9888	T	F	6.12	101.12	26	332.5627963093	19.565979678825	0.74357025326778	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-04 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	67	147	39.3	33.34	36.32	59.549283883224	0.2975	0.3375	4.66	4.9975	T	F	7.3	102.3	26	333.0444690905	19.832559635608	0.78444388436558	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-04 18:58:40	FORECAST	2021	67	147	34.66	32.44	33.55	59.077937333333	0.4291	0.4991	4.66	5.1591	T	F	2.66	97.66	26	332.72718879979	19.65683600901	0.60440919407251	93	3	3	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-12-04 15:00:46	FORECAST	2021	67	147	40.49	32.74	36.615	58.700628	0.2117	0.2717	4.66	4.9317	T	F	8.49	103.49	26	332.47293445633	19.51637004559	0.82156380013434	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-04 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	67	147	39.64	32.91	36.275	57.912553333333	0.3268	0.4168	4.66	5.0768	T	F	7.64	102.64	26	331.9410944199	19.223556334117	0.79548076876058	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-04 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	35.85	33.05	34.45	58.057713631026	0.3228	0.3528	4.66	5.0128	T	F	3.85	96.85	26	332.03913729596	19.277433147422	0.65496919845893	93	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-04 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	67	147	36.34	33.5	34.92	57.8994435	0.1734	0.1834	4.66	4.8434	T	F	4.34	97.34	26	331.93223811305	19.218691866455	0.6750664650795	93	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-03 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.33	33.74	38.035	59.599422666667	0.0398	0.0498	4.67	4.7198	T	F	10.33	108.33	26	333.07819695942	19.851268241636	0.87048688799226	93	5	3	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-12-03 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.54	33.8	38.17	59.67038	0.1147	0.1147	4.67	4.7847	T	F	10.54	107.54	26	333.12592192286	19.877750348987	0.87541534688059	93	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-03 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	40.78	32.67	36.725	59.887406666667	0.2382	0.2482	4.67	4.9182	T	F	8.78	103.78	26	333.27183781165	19.958786081573	0.82996183168547	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-03 10:58:47	FORECAST	2021	67	147	35.21	32.01	33.61	59.720039485139	0.1928	0.2128	4.67	4.8828	T	F	3.21	99.21	26	333.15931711943	19.896287573214	0.62805512044922	93	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-12-03 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	40.92	32.19	36.555	58.823086333333	0.0996	0.1696	4.67	4.8396	T	F	8.92	103.92	26	332.55548115825	19.561939778795	0.8339240827321	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-03 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	67	147	38.42	31.84	35.13	58.894754333333	0.336	0.396	4.67	5.066	T	F	6.42	102.42	26	332.60377920798	19.588617866792	0.75432947059026	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-02 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.42	33.56	37.99	60.011318666667	0.1545	0.2245	4.69	4.9145	T	F	10.42	107.42	26	333.35511284239	20.005079905947	0.87261533202849	93	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-02 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.43	33.57	38	60.118301333333	0.219	0.289	4.68	4.969	T	F	10.43	102.43	26	333.42698943862	20.045064223737	0.87285031981816	93	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-02 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.73	33.27	38	60.100972	0.1563	0.2263	4.68	4.9063	T	F	10.73	106.73	26	333.41534800438	20.038586494782	0.87976045815676	93	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-02 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	43.76	33.69	38.725	59.465089333333	0.0751	0.2051	4.68	4.8851	T	F	11.76	102.76	26	332.98782257745	19.80115061648	0.90146486984513	93	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-02 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	43.77	33.7	38.735	59.283195916667	0.0751	0.2051	4.68	4.8851	T	F	11.77	103.77	26	332.86540241609	19.733324865313	0.90166055984399	93	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-02 02:59:52	FORECAST	2021	67	147	43.57	33.44	38.505	59.372466583333	0.1031	0.1831	4.67	4.8531	T	F	11.57	100.57	26	332.92549153395	19.76660762084	0.89769261708521	93	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-01 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.38	31.52	36.95	58.696985333333	0.0012	0.0012	4.6	4.6012	T	F	10.38	102.38	26	332.47047861467	19.515014807012	0.87167237030253	93	5	3	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-12-01 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.42	31.58	37	58.71918	0.0012	0.0012	4.6	4.6012	T	F	10.42	102.42	26	332.48544163707	19.523272494866	0.87261533202849	93	5	3	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-12-01 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	41.43	30.55	35.99	59.040574117205	0.0187	0.0187	4.6	4.6187	T	F	9.43	101.43	26	332.70202202461	19.642918390288	0.8478503493216	93	4	3	1	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-01 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	41.1	30.45	35.775	58.776726305198	0.1533	0.3033	4.6	4.9033	T	F	9.1	98.1	26	332.52423381495	19.544685880787	0.83893023347532	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-01 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	41.12	30.47	35.795	59.12762463457	0.1533	0.3033	4.6	4.9033	T	F	9.12	98.12	26	332.76065302029	19.675346984938	0.83948034553459	93	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-01 02:59:00	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.15	31.81	36.98	59.19134378787	0.015	0.015	4.6	4.615	T	F	10.15	101.15	26	332.80356146283	19.699090020374	0.86615662441941	93	5	3	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-11-30 22:59:51	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.48	30.24	36.36	55.745311922771	0.001	0.041	4.04	4.081	T	F	10.48	86.48	26	330.4730086024	18.422320946597	0.87402074728786	93	5	3	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-11-30 19:00:40	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.51	30.23	36.37	55.828762203918	0.001	0.041	4.03	4.071	T	F	10.51	84.51	26	330.52968741361	18.45306331995	0.87471939781007	93	5	3	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-11-30 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	39.61	29.06	34.335	56.123731754459	0.0013	0.0513	4.04	4.0913	T	F	7.61	80.61	26	330.72993228661	18.561798002824	0.79452064024197	93	4	3	1	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-11-30 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	40.45	32.42	36.435	56.6296370084	0.039	0.039	4.01	4.049	T	F	8.45	82.45	26	331.07302516436	18.74854523833	0.82038532867493	93	4	3	1	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-11-30 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	40.49	32.42	36.455	58.422412652446	0.039	0.039	4.35	4.389	T	F	8.49	83.49	26	332.28529962291	19.412908892911	0.82156380013434	93	4	3	1	1	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-11-30 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.28	32.93	37.605	59.884329478098	0.001	0.001	4.94	4.941	T	F	10.28	94.28	26	333.26976945424	19.957636679088	0.86929386254522	93	5	3	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-11-29 22:59:02	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.25	32.06	37.155	60.126132835038	0.0036	0.0036	4.81	4.8136	T	F	10.25	94.25	26	333.43225028721	20.047991772255	0.86857442242246	93	5	3	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-11-29 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	42.29	32.06	37.175	60.442569641775	0.0033	0.0033	4.89	4.8933	T	F	10.29	92.29	26	333.64473070398	20.166344871186	0.86953307156824	93	5	3	1	1	1	2	4.5	WET	L
2020-11-29 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	41.85	30.37	36.11	62.626183204452	0.1098	0.1098	4.9	5.0098	T	F	9.85	89.85	26	335.10633338702	20.986430627668	0.85872113028812	93	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-29 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	67	147	33.79	31.14	32.465	61.980659714412	0.0018	0.0018	5.02	5.0218	T	F	1.79	81.79	26	334.67509565707	20.743383218809	0.56624212815609	93	3	3	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-11-29 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	67	147	33.82	31.84	32.83	61.847772928464	0	0	5.03	5.03	T	F	1.82	83.82	26	334.58623371776	20.693413407966	0.56757075172093	93	3	3	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L
2020-11-29 02:59:08	FORECAST	2021	67	147	33.34	32.64	32.99	62.642078270647	0.0034	0.0034	5.01	5.0134	T	F	1.34	77.34	26	335.11694306457	20.992421777271	0.54623122179695	93	3	3	1	1	1	2	3.5	WET	L