Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 27, 2020

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DAY 88 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/28/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 33.01°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.41°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 28.71°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.536 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 1 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -2 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.17 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.67 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.03 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.70 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 84 in SWE DAY: 5 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.55 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 27.71 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 168 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-28 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	88	168	33.00998	24.40994	28.70996	84.346944166667	0.17000000000002	0.67000000000002	9.03	9.7	T	T	1.00998	-1.99002	5	328.55355412972	27.71248828594	0.53636965563772	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-28 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	88	168	33.00998	24.40994	28.70996	84.323381818182	0.17000000000002	0.67000000000002	9.03	9.7	T	T	1.00998	-1.99002	5	328.53743370289	27.703387463695	0.53636965563772	89	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-27 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.62	26.58	32.1	82.925905227065	0.0097	0.5097	9.03	9.5397	T	T	5.62	2.62	5	327.57960794641	27.164835522883	0.73926030822531	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-27 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37	26.46	31.73	82.977673018657	0.0148	0.5148	9.03	9.5448	T	T	5	2	5	327.61515008952	27.184742800087	0.71468418241803	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-27 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	88	168	30.87	26.92	28.895	83.112003588828	0.0334	0.5334	9.03	9.5634	T	T	-1.13	-4.13	5	327.70735545412	27.236414902588	0.43490271086655	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-26 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	88	168	36.55	26.77	31.66	79.093442802261	0.0776	0.3076	9.03	9.3376	T	T	4.55	1.55	5	324.93533698665	25.700254490387	0.69618305998235	89	3	1	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-12-26 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.33	27.06	32.195	79.161450693791	0.1073	0.3373	9.03	9.3673	T	T	5.33	2.33	5	324.9824848424	25.726084950198	0.72790160316822	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-26 14:59:33	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.38	27.03	32.205	79.261267813419	0.1208	0.3508	9.03	9.3808	T	T	5.38	2.38	5	325.0516703458	25.764007496478	0.72987739602636	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-26 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.25	26.68	31.965	80.121246059322	0.0944	0.3244	9.03	9.3544	T	T	5.25	2.25	5	325.64701470537	26.091244593693	0.72472548165847	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-26 06:57:34	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.56	26.69	32.125	79.917083639014	0.1063	0.4863	9.03	9.5163	T	T	5.56	4.56	5	325.50579516808	26.013473857431	0.73693037663333	89	4	1	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.72	26.92	32.32	80.610962342208	0.1314	0.6414	9.03	9.6714	T	T	5.72	3.72	5	325.98545404159	26.278001159854	0.74311982711347	89	4	1	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-12-25 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.56	27.14	32.35	182.52477687169	0.063	1.413	9.03	10.443	T	T	5.56	4.56	5	388.00093784528	70.819784606215	0.73693037663333	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-25 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.71	26.47	32.09	183.02727316165	0.0845	1.4145	9.03	10.4445	T	T	5.71	1.71	5	388.26866964045	71.063755858394	0.74273521557414	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-25 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.53	26.11	31.82	183.35584799125	0.052	1.382	9.03	10.412	T	T	5.53	0.53	5	388.44355078392	71.223396650717	0.73576143916908	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-25 10:57:34	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.59	25.64	31.615	185.49109174066	0.0188	1.4288	9.03	10.4588	T	T	5.59	0.59	5	389.57646686874	72.262964155954	0.73809666927472	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-25 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.55	25.04	31.295	185.82196462558	0.0193	1.5693	9.03	10.5993	T	T	5.55	2.55	5	389.75147198514	72.424384239991	0.73654102424066	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.48	25.21	31.345	184.51340225858	0.0567	1.5267	9.03	10.5567	T	T	5.48	1.48	5	389.0584876308	71.786505230337	0.73380735704201	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-24 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.18	25.75	31.465	116.51608648	0.0561	1.3961	9.04	10.4361	T	T	5.18	10.18	5	349.68660687005	40.74411492697	0.72193150546809	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-24 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	88	168	36.82	24.05	30.435	117.09354974661	0.0583	1.4583	9.04	10.4983	T	T	4.82	7.82	5	350.05040865717	40.988644939918	0.70734818842338	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-24 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	88	168	36.95	23.7	30.325	118.21800867738	0.0288	1.6288	9.04	10.6688	T	T	4.95	4.95	5	350.75728829175	41.465828150927	0.71265520333515	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	88	168	29.39	22.87	26.13	117.40559458976	0.0275	1.6175	9.04	10.6575	T	T	-2.61	-2.61	5	350.24677490217	41.120930860535	0.3667777152057	89	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.39	24.7	31.045	116.88623616142	0.0169	1.5969	9.04	10.6369	T	T	5.39	9.39	5	349.91986251701	40.900815687736	0.73027169274097	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.75	20.88	29.315	118.17080817557	0.0076	1.7276	9.04	10.7676	T	T	5.75	3.75	5	350.7276567551	41.445770648273	0.74427186641327	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-23 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	36.88	23.31	30.095	83.577533900754	0.0071	1.2571	9.04	10.2971	T	T	4.88	0.88	5	328.02665511934	27.415658888587	0.70980323065091	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-23 18:57:46	FORECAST	2021	88	168	36.88	23.45	30.165	83.342196304411	0.008	1.218	9.04	10.258	T	T	4.88	-0.12	5	327.86528808044	27.325013200602	0.70980323065091	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-23 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.35	24.59	30.97	83.251055772113	0.0672	1.3572	9.04	10.3972	T	T	5.35	2.35	5	327.80276863143	27.289926573589	0.72869278076297	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-23 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	36.87	25.07	30.97	83.248423381921	0.1727	1.4627	9.04	10.5027	T	T	4.87	5.87	5	327.80096268209	27.28891332636	0.70939472697089	89	4	1	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-23 06:57:55	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.95	25.92	31.935	84.161441942569	0.2079	1.6679	9.04	10.7079	T	T	5.95	3.95	5	328.4266147402	27.640857468852	0.75188274521267	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.95	25.92	31.935	85.141544494509	0.2079	1.6479	9.04	10.6879	T	T	5.95	-0.049999999999997	5	329.09662375723	28.019794834619	0.75188274521267	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-22 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	88	168	38.01	25.39	31.7	85.3456338328	0.3679	2.0079	8.76	10.7679	T	T	6.01	8.01	5	329.23593180047	28.098849280044	0.75414225453249	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	88	168	38.01	25.39	31.7	84.736751084067	0.3679	2.0979	8.76	10.8579	T	T	6.01	9.01	5	328.8201046446	27.863147358706	0.75414225453249	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-22 14:57:50	FORECAST	2021	88	168	37.99	25.36	31.675	84.292626780913	0.6284	2.1084	8.76	10.8684	T	T	5.99	8.99	5	328.51639087135	27.691509527131	0.7533903122141	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-22 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	88	168	38.03	26.6	32.315	86.069464898098	0.2724	2.4724	8.76	11.2324	T	T	6.03	7.03	5	329.7294252027	28.379635188354	0.75489296638339	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	36.88	25.69	31.285	87.220067800313	0.2724	2.3624	8.76	11.1224	T	T	4.88	1.88	5	330.51201798749	28.827280617687	0.70980323065091	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	36.6	25.19	30.895	92.210415868644	0.4378	3.0478	8.84	11.8878	T	T	4.6	5.6	5	333.87990023892	30.787204451212	0.69826495968224	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-21 23:01:14	FORECAST	2021	88	168	38.01	25.01	31.51	96.003821464131	0.0287	2.6787	8.67	11.3487	T	T	6.01	4.01	5	336.41158367323	32.296797617431	0.75414225453249	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-21 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	38.01	25.01	31.51	96.011143897815	0.0287	2.6787	8.66	11.3387	T	T	6.01	6.01	5	336.41644704624	32.299727906948	0.75414225453249	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-21 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	39.24	26.67	32.955	89.552925595267	0.0296	1.8296	8.64	10.4696	T	T	7.24	10.24	5	332.09172957822	29.739785949722	0.79794539665466	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-21 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	34.77	23.93	29.35	89.77553726811	0.0008	1.2708	8.65	9.9208	T	T	2.77	-2.23	5	332.24198403504	29.827202619769	0.61836088855228	89	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	34.77	23.93	29.35	88.818469857252	0.0008	1.1608	9.01	10.1708	T	T	2.77	-2.23	5	331.59539676343	29.451795752237	0.61836088855228	89	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-21 03:00:10	FORECAST	2021	88	168	35.61	24.9	30.255	89.535150688526	0.0034	1.1334	9.62	10.7534	T	T	3.61	1.61	5	332.07972852558	29.732808534142	0.65591954566193	89	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-20 22:57:47	FORECAST	2021	88	168	34.26	23.08	28.67	91.810691934176	0.0638	2.0838	9.66	11.7438	T	T	2.26	3.26	5	333.61170482396	30.629121457228	0.59497430471745	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-20 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	88	168	34.26	23.56	28.91	91.600671664739	0.0627	2.0827	9.58	11.6627	T	T	2.26	-0.74	5	333.47068222958	30.546138472728	0.59497430471745	89	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-20 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	88	168	36.62	26.39	31.505	93.264054679783	0.0018	1.9418	9.82	11.7618	T	T	4.62	1.62	5	334.58553742265	31.204803857251	0.69909592155966	89	4	1	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-20 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	88	168	27.38	26.22	26.8	93.051400906498	0.007	0.967	9.68	10.647	T	T	-4.62	-14.62	5	334.44327217686	31.12041499981	0.28092089461489	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-20 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	27.38	26.89	27.135	92.589785622286	0.007	0.967	9.67	10.637	T	T	-4.62	-2.62	5	334.13418725398	30.937412766923	0.28092089461489	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	88	168	28.46	27.43	27.945	92.194904260083	0.0076	0.8776	10	10.8776	T	T	-3.54	0.46	5	333.86949777784	30.78106638299	0.32588411935505	89	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L