Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 26, 2020

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DAY 87 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/27/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 29.30°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 24.41°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.85°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.334 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 92 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: -2 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.50 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.50 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 9.12 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.62 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 83 in SWE DAY: 6 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 328.67 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 27.28 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 167 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 1 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 6.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-27 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	87	167	29.3	24.40994	26.85497	83.014212608696	0.5	0.5	9.12	9.62	T	T	-2.7	-1.7	6	328.66527251715	27.283888809833	0.33387483201389	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-27 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	87	167	29.3	24.40994	26.85497	83.014212608696	0.5	0.5	9.12	9.62	T	T	-2.7	-1.7	6	328.66527251715	27.283888809833	0.33387483201389	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-26 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	87	167	28.92	24.13	26.525	79.950894920675	0.233	0.233	9.12	9.353	T	T	-3.08	-2.08	6	326.56223261501	26.108942744864	0.31834841283649	92	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-26 06:57:34	FORECAST	2021	87	167	30.86	23.98	27.42	79.736944346516	0.3769	0.3769	9.12	9.4969	T	T	-1.14	-0.14	6	326.41473824923	26.027313817661	0.40037646339091	92	2	1	1	2	1	2	4	WET	L
2020-12-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	30.05	24.03	27.04	80.372568495718	0.5097	0.5097	9.12	9.6297	T	T	-1.95	-0.95	6	326.8526935927	26.269990503789	0.36534556510793	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-25 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	87	167	35.1	24.51	29.805	182.47094838035	0.6814	1.3514	9.12	10.4714	T	T	3.1	0.1	6	388.76844930353	70.938947644774	0.59030615391646	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-25 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	87	167	32.16	24.4	28.28	183.07176878962	0.6558	1.3258	9.12	10.4458	T	T	0.16	-2.84	6	389.08735818065	71.230910875812	0.45819321543486	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-25 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	87	167	31.27	24.93	28.1	183.3396932227	0.6645	1.3345	9.12	10.4545	T	T	-0.73	-3.73	6	389.22941270117	71.361201117886	0.41843865412029	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-25 10:57:34	FORECAST	2021	87	167	30.84	24.67	27.755	185.52961324903	0.7427	1.4127	9.12	10.5327	T	T	-1.16	-4.16	6	390.3868991383	72.428330414616	0.39950047282065	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-25 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	30.8	24.75	27.775	185.85530621906	0.8104	1.5504	9.12	10.6704	T	T	-1.2	-2.2	6	390.55849546878	72.587368771805	0.39775001244801	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	29.89	24.29	27.09	184.4127003571	0.6205	1.4705	9.12	10.5905	T	T	-2.11	-3.11	6	389.79735717429	71.883583228574	0.35854659502289	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-24 23:00:04	FORECAST	2021	87	167	34.56	24.15	29.355	116.40833578842	0.5162	1.3462	9.12	10.4662	T	T	2.56	5.56	6	350.56034360531	40.80814619251	0.56635849595207	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-24 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	87	167	31.51	23.85	27.68	116.95893139028	0.6491	1.4091	9.12	10.5291	T	T	-0.49	3.51	6	350.90600952239	41.041591892168	0.4290946284329	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-24 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	87	167	31.93	23.48	27.705	118.17774435867	0.6878	1.6078	9.12	10.7278	T	T	-0.07	0.93	6	351.66946743781	41.559504421615	0.44786289299879	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	87	167	32.13	24.66	28.395	117.30117662804	0.7862	1.5962	9.12	10.7162	T	T	0.13	1.13	6	351.12062881745	41.186862898664	0.45684402763045	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	36.19	24.31	30.25	116.90556541303	0.8268	1.5868	9.12	10.7068	T	T	4.19	5.19	6	350.87252732097	41.018951194359	0.63754748395681	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	32	24.22	28.11	118.23105733066	0.9365	1.7265	9.12	10.8465	T	T	0	-1	6	351.70280847529	41.582194912196	0.45100349103784	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-23 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	87	167	32.23	24.74	28.485	83.617837917838	0.6249	1.2549	9.13	10.3849	T	T	0.23	-2.77	6	329.0777491449	27.516769890365	0.46134316742123	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-23 18:57:46	FORECAST	2021	87	167	31.87	25.47	28.67	83.4005818764	0.6452	1.2052	9.13	10.3352	T	T	-0.13	-4.13	6	328.92936393143	27.432900348116	0.44517354291206	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-23 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.23	27.13	30.18	83.110279999712	0.8236	1.2936	9.13	10.4236	T	T	1.23	-1.77	6	328.7309607842	27.320922195349	0.50651180298712	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-23 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.24	25.82	29.53	82.729012108891	0.9138	1.2938	9.13	10.4238	T	T	1.24	2.24	6	328.47016572483	27.174012317659	0.50696403462193	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-23 06:57:55	FORECAST	2021	87	167	34.06	25.79	29.925	83.604688972913	1.1211	1.4611	9.13	10.5911	T	T	2.06	-0.94	6	329.06877078338	27.511692232043	0.5439633138167	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	32.64	25.6	29.12	84.166032319515	1.1031	1.4431	9.13	10.5731	T	T	0.64	-5.36	6	329.45180047388	27.728650886407	0.47983521216266	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-22 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.2	28.1	30.65	83.587881929846	1.3736	1.6436	8.85	10.4936	T	T	1.2	3.2	6	329.05729416298	27.505202252649	0.50515506019165	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-22 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	87	167	34.37	28.1	31.235	82.941931071102	1.3717	1.7317	8.85	10.5817	T	T	2.37	4.37	6	328.61583780111	27.256032167772	0.55786940848003	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-22 14:57:50	FORECAST	2021	87	167	35.27	27.59	31.43	81.181229834151	0.9633	1.4833	8.85	10.3333	T	T	3.27	4.27	6	327.40885333422	26.579453372261	0.597780443047	92	3	1	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-22 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.83	28.04	30.935	84.864797399974	1.3915	2.2015	8.85	11.0515	T	T	1.83	1.83	6	329.92783675771	27.999259023055	0.53361000473544	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-22 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.59	27.07	30.33	85.942746802078	1.3915	2.0915	8.85	10.9415	T	T	1.59	-2.41	6	330.66053873429	28.41787495788	0.52278235722435	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-22 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	34.73	24.94	29.835	89.559930132137	1.8962	2.6062	8.93	11.5362	T	T	2.73	1.73	6	333.10459545432	29.832824295582	0.57392825620019	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-21 23:01:14	FORECAST	2021	87	167	31.59	23.19	27.39	95.969073960016	1.7499	2.6499	8.76	11.4099	T	T	-0.41	-1.41	6	337.38036199841	32.378080913282	0.43265853696117	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-21 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	87	167	31.59	23.19	27.39	95.973126453617	1.7499	2.6499	8.75	11.3999	T	T	-0.41	0.59	6	337.38304360019	32.379705506747	0.43265853696117	92	2	1	1	5	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-21 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.84	23.05	28.445	89.494196927976	1.186	1.796	8.73	10.526	T	T	1.84	3.84	6	333.06038090335	29.806971317472	0.53406067320298	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-21 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	87	167	31.64	26.14	28.89	89.802436845456	0.5089	1.2689	8.74	10.0089	T	T	-0.36	-4.36	6	333.26765047558	29.928247134467	0.43488878379806	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-21 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	31.64	26.14	28.89	88.845283116865	0.5089	1.1589	9.1	10.2589	T	T	-0.36	-4.36	6	332.62350142104	29.552029155075	0.43488878379806	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-21 03:00:10	FORECAST	2021	87	167	32.18	24.24	28.21	89.566193802791	0.4444	1.1344	9.71	10.8444	T	T	0.18	-0.82	6	333.10880824247	29.835288076461	0.45909294261082	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-20 22:57:46	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.65	26.34	29.995	91.379794441192	0.7297	2.0197	9.75	11.7697	T	T	1.65	1.65	6	334.32577578719	30.550620667826	0.5254911606428	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-20 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.65	26.34	29.995	91.158676112575	0.7297	2.0197	9.67	11.6897	T	T	1.65	-2.35	6	334.17770023498	30.463196739766	0.5254911606428	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-20 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	87	167	35.08	26.03	30.555	93.317916716753	0.6479	1.9379	9.91	11.8479	T	T	3.08	-1.92	6	335.62011850931	31.319370267519	0.58942460802174	92	3	1	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-20 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.95	26.04	29.995	92.997535951835	0.491	0.961	9.77	10.731	T	T	1.95	-9.05	6	335.40659689286	31.191987053026	0.53901501757095	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-20 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	33.95	26.04	29.995	92.532171119927	0.491	0.961	9.76	10.721	T	T	1.95	2.95	6	335.09613924042	31.007173297821	0.53901501757095	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-20 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	34.52	25.99	30.255	92.124411916478	0.4715	0.8715	10.09	10.9615	T	T	2.52	4.52	6	334.82381007793	30.845446599064	0.56457372599094	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-19 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	87	167	34.41	26.8	30.605	84.375137636923	0.2628	0.6928	11.14	11.8328	T	T	2.41	13.41	6	329.59434283921	27.80956804141	0.55965892952794	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-19 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	87	167	34.41	26.8	30.605	83.375182898101	0.2314	0.6614	10.99	11.6514	T	T	2.41	12.41	6	328.91201116015	27.42309908786	0.55965892952794	92	3	1	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-12-19 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	87	167	30.47	25.81	28.14	83.06245478477	0.163	0.533	10.78	11.313	T	T	-1.53	11.47	6	328.69826120756	27.302484459385	0.38339021945383	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-12-19 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	87	167	32.71	26.64	29.675	87.060782550337	0.608	1.188	10.18	11.368	T	T	0.71	13.71	6	331.41837168234	28.853542790223	0.48299784142805	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-19 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	32.71	30.51	31.61	86.954973574517	0.4468	1.0268	9.88	10.9068	T	T	0.71	14.71	6	331.34674384127	28.81224735472	0.48299784142805	92	2	1	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-12-19 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	87	167	29.27	28.22	28.745	89.302082941247	0.1725	0.9825	10.32	11.3025	T	T	-2.73	8.27	6	332.93111570371	29.731442108294	0.33263822504433	92	2	1	1	3	1	2	6	WET	L