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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 22, 2020

[ Monday, December 21, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 23, 2020 ]

DAY 83 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/23/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 22.25°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 20.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.24°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.118
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 18

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.29 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.86 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 6.99 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 9.85 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 80 in
SWE DAY: 10
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 330.57 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 26.39 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 163

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-23 06:57:55OBSERVATION20218316322.2499420.2200821.2350179.8254871428570.290000000000022.866.999.85TT-9.7500618.2499410330.57023942664 26.3879303971630.1177514229882291 1115127.5WETL
2020-12-23 03:00:07OBSERVATION20218316322.2499420.2200821.2350179.8254871428570.290000000000022.866.999.85TT-9.7500618.2499410330.57023942664 26.3879303971630.1177514229882291 1115127.5WETL
2020-12-22 11:00:02FORECAST20218316324.8721.1122.9978.0929725887620.01872.58876.999.5787TT-7.1320.8710329.3912393226425.7231410234020.19070209380001911115127.5WETL
2020-12-22 07:00:07FORECAST20218316324.720.6522.67578.170529464840.02482.59486.999.5848TT-7.320.710329.4441288527225.75282198150.18526452431209911115127.5WETL
2020-12-22 03:00:07FORECAST20218316325.3620.2622.8178.5917355922210.10072.67076.999.6607TT-6.6421.3610329.7311864240825.9141462199510.20691373074811911115127.5WETL
2020-12-21 23:01:11FORECAST20218316325.5418.2221.8881.9835516915610.17042.50046.999.4904TT-6.4623.5410332.0315943636927.2211293797470.2130676597001911115127.5WETL
2020-12-21 19:00:04FORECAST20218316325.720.5523.12581.840429463280.16152.49156.999.4815TT-6.323.710331.9349255299627.1656968592340.21862622245234911115127.5WETL
2020-12-21 15:00:04FORECAST20218316326.0518.5722.3181.8018313759560.14172.47176.999.4617TT-5.9524.0510331.9088492640827.1507517196880.23107174036052911115127.5WETL
2020-12-21 11:00:02FORECAST20218316329.3619.9524.65585.4150484806770.14682.47686.999.4668TT-2.6427.3610334.3388343172428.557567742180.365897711055349121151210WETL
2020-12-21 07:00:07FORECAST20218316329.5720.3524.9685.1488080820950.14092.84096.999.8309TT-2.4326.5710334.1605406387328.4533717434560.375305757850019121151210WETL
2020-12-21 03:00:10FORECAST20218316329.5820.1424.8685.9381063326880.14223.45226.9910.4422TT-2.4225.5810334.6887604680928.7625182854620.375755665867739121151210WETL
2020-12-20 22:57:45FORECAST20218316329.8520.4725.1687.2679803042960.16533.48536.9910.4753TT-2.1526.8510335.5763564800529.2850708678880.387965156375469121151210WETL
2020-12-20 19:00:04FORECAST20218316329.6721.1125.3986.8218967303470.16733.40736.9910.3973TT-2.3325.6710335.2789616280929.1095553823320.379812371078369121151210WETL
2020-12-20 15:00:02FORECAST20218316329.920.9825.4487.3193339798770.10863.64866.9910.6386TT-2.125.910335.6105713080829.3052915632280.390238780170229121151210WETL
2020-12-20 11:00:04FORECAST20218316326.0120.9823.49588.2164877435230.11573.50576.9910.4957TT-5.9924.0110336.2075882456429.6590525877510.22962971863917911115127.5WETL
2020-12-20 07:00:07FORECAST20218316329.9321.4125.6787.6851174245160.10623.49626.9910.4862TT-2.0730.9310335.8541486099829.4494104583770.391604763677799121151210WETL
2020-12-20 03:00:07FORECAST20218316329.5521.3425.44587.4446981735750.13453.83456.9910.8245TT-2.4530.5510335.6940775371129.3546672888890.374406450854249121151210WETL
2020-12-19 23:00:06FORECAST20218316327.6519.6823.66581.4077138146320.18834.48837.3811.8683TT-4.3536.6510331.6424432117926.9982531057710.292690307162489121151210WETL
2020-12-19 19:00:04FORECAST20218316327.5121.0324.2780.5112365106940.18224.34227.3811.7222TT-4.4935.5110331.0354700232726.6520750204720.287007980991899121151210WETL
2020-12-19 15:00:06FORECAST20218316331.520.1225.8180.9429498786850.1954.1257.3811.505TT-0.538.510331.3279404614326.8186608781780.464562544435379121151210WETL
2020-12-19 11:00:06FORECAST20218316328.5919.2423.91581.0501365787630.14833.52837.3810.9083TT-3.4136.5910331.4005059505226.8600562695610.332123258654269121151210WETL
2020-12-19 07:00:07FORECAST20218316329.8621.5225.6982.1391859052420.23433.29437.3210.6143TT-2.1438.8610332.1366742721427.2814360339880.388419576847619121151210WETL
2020-12-19 03:00:07FORECAST20218316332.6819.7426.2183.8730728480860.27943.77947.2711.0494TT0.6835.6810333.3045417411327.9552761100520.520335453294019131151212.5WETL
2020-12-18 23:00:06FORECAST20218316332.1822.9527.56582.6104900667080.48264.15267.3211.4726TT0.1842.1810332.4546325361627.464240118760.496688180536879121151210WETL
2020-12-18 19:00:05FORECAST20218316332.1822.7727.47582.6643596783480.46555.23557.312.5355TT0.1846.1810332.4909506261227.4851515323540.496688180536879121151210WETL
2020-12-18 15:00:05FORECAST20218316332.3124.0828.19582.6751075835670.68624.80627.4512.2562TT0.3140.3110332.4981961091427.4893241346650.502838711047369131151212.5WETL
2020-12-18 11:00:06FORECAST20218316331.6120.1325.8790.3622118653480.57145.76147.5413.3014TT-0.3945.6110337.6299687287230.5089907663560.469749207640929121151210WETL
2020-12-18 07:00:07FORECAST20218316331.6120.1325.8789.0958945253910.57145.80147.513.3014TT-0.3947.6110336.7914764567130.0067378634380.469749207640929121151210WETL
2020-12-18 03:00:07FORECAST20218316331.2520.6625.95588.0286406611420.41245.26247.4812.7424TT-0.7540.2510336.0826967368529.5849029434760.452798419154059121151210WETL
2020-12-17 23:00:06FORECAST20218316328.8621.625.2376.4329057158130.51087.71086.8914.6008TT-3.1443.8610328.256663046925.0896105772510.343828623701319121151210WETL
2020-12-17 19:00:05FORECAST20218316333.3220.8827.188.7279784384340.42527.30527.1114.4152TT1.3242.3210336.5473547010729.8611664314280.550488574718369131151212.5WETL
2020-12-17 15:00:06FORECAST20218316328.9321.5325.2391.1579179969320.51089.35086.9316.2808TT-3.0745.9310338.1554675964230.8255483853680.346888497307359121151210WETL
2020-12-17 10:58:10FORECAST20218316329.2918.4923.8983.4366028831830.17855.77856.8512.6285TT-2.7136.2910333.0110396332627.7853098695960.362779204449589121151210WETL
2020-12-17 07:00:07FORECAST20218316329.2918.4923.8980.531633393720.17855.62857.1512.7785TT-2.7142.2910331.0492954048226.659940492790.362779204449589121151210WETL
2020-12-17 02:58:14FORECAST20218316331.6319.6325.6381.2510063967110.02514.71517.312.0151TT-0.3736.6310331.5364418000326.9376695534370.470692815051119121151210WETL
2020-12-16 23:00:06FORECAST20218316337.629.4133.50581.5949944626270.48784.78788.4613.2478TT5.647.610331.7690699066327.0706954219030.73712192589579141151215WETL
2020-12-16 19:00:06FORECAST20218316337.629.4133.50580.9334415933410.48784.95788.6513.6078TT5.655.610331.3215023899526.8149894622950.73712192589579141151215WETL
2020-12-16 15:00:06FORECAST20218316337.0128.5832.79578.8326287063940.45344.46348.7513.2134TT5.0165.0110329.8952202877826.006507412960.71379949973289141151215WETL
2020-12-16 11:00:05FORECAST20218316332.0923.627.84587.8240852275590.57845.98848.0814.0684TT0.09000000000000349.0910335.9466287653929.5042053566030.492430494233549121151210WETL
2020-12-16 07:00:07FORECAST20218316332.0923.627.84586.4783706421460.57845.98847.8713.8584TT0.09000000000000348.0910335.0497099930628.9745530043240.492430494233549121151210WETL
2020-12-16 02:59:43FORECAST20218316330.7720.2425.50590.7561617212960.64056.21058.0114.2205TT-1.2347.7710337.8902731594230.6656242749090.43033573159189121151210WETL
2020-12-15 23:00:06FORECAST20218316336.0827.6531.86578.9822673635250.334.289.9614.24TT4.0863.0810329.9970647752826.063916399260.675164565545629131151212.5WETL
2020-12-15 19:00:06FORECAST20218316336.0827.6531.86577.7393708389880.32934.27939.7814.0593TT4.0865.0810329.1499702654325.5879116001060.675164565545629131151212.5WETL
2020-12-15 14:58:08FORECAST20218316335.1631.8333.49587.7628482725140.67734.53739.8914.4273TT3.1656.1610335.9058808803529.4800568575470.634994205433239131151212.5WETL
2020-12-15 10:58:17FORECAST20218316336.9730.5233.74575.9589658389720.35444.534410.5615.0944TT4.9766.9710327.9318689774324.9093656331670.712183461985669141151215WETL
2020-12-15 07:01:05FORECAST20218316336.9730.5233.74576.7485168292160.28644.466410.8815.3464TT4.9760.9710328.4727366092525.2097953535940.712183461985669141151215WETL
2020-12-15 03:00:07FORECAST20218316335.1431.3333.23569.076843001470.29864.858611.4316.2886TT3.1457.1410323.1711775990922.3236446976130.634102288944669131151212.5WETL