MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, December 20, 2020

[ Saturday, December 19, 2020 | Index | Today | Monday, December 21, 2020 ]

DAY 81 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/21/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 28.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 30.61°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.467
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 50

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.12 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 4.72 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.11 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 81 in
SWE DAY: 12
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 333.08 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 26.83 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 161

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-21 07:00:07OBSERVATION20218116132.8899228.3400630.6149980.551021.123.394.728.11TT0.8899249.8899212333.08271404642 26.8301523608070.4666245365637891 21151210WETL
2020-12-21 03:00:09OBSERVATION20218116132.8899228.3400630.6149980.551021.123.394.728.11TT0.8899249.8899212333.08271404642 26.8301523608070.4666245365637891 21151210WETL
2020-12-20 11:00:02FORECAST20218116135.4130.633.00582.1158735323580.62132.89134.727.6113TT3.4152.4112334.1332016362127.4376397285210.575055356871849131151212.5WETL
2020-12-20 07:00:07FORECAST20218116137.9229.2333.57582.8370485529320.72522.99524.727.7152TT5.9254.9212334.615923326827.7185954872060.677668435601029131151212.5WETL
2020-12-20 03:00:07FORECAST20218116138.2529.0433.64582.8796327980871.09853.36854.728.0885TT6.2555.2512334.6443996410327.7352049601850.690384916649729131151212.5WETL
2020-12-19 23:00:03FORECAST20218116140.129.7434.9276.3856895528631.93784.59784.729.3178TT8.163.112330.2660896415325.2276029931960.75722010525019141151215WETL
2020-12-19 19:00:02FORECAST20218116140.5430.3135.42576.1661416960921.80124.46124.729.1812TT8.5463.5412330.1168015534225.1437230833790.771884539699399141151215WETL
2020-12-19 15:00:05FORECAST20218116139.4730.4234.94575.9551615732771.7724.4324.729.152TT7.4762.4712329.9732608883725.0631723456370.735366290356939141151215WETL
2020-12-19 11:00:04FORECAST20218116140.0929.6734.8876.6644855044311.33.964.728.68TT8.0963.0912330.4555452896925.334204361720.75688100514929141151215WETL
2020-12-19 07:00:07FORECAST20218116140.0229.1234.5778.0326577077621.27423.87424.728.5942TT8.0263.0212331.3833438079525.8587230374190.754500160553269141151215WETL
2020-12-19 03:00:07FORECAST20218116137.1729.0133.0978.439942472971.47464.02464.728.7446TT5.1758.1712331.6589136057426.0153061038820.648002746143789131151212.5WETL
2020-12-18 23:00:05FORECAST20218116139.3829.2134.29575.5039132310281.63884.23884.728.9588TT7.3865.3812329.6659950303824.8910726839950.732164699497689141151215WETL
2020-12-18 19:00:05FORECAST20218116140.1930.6735.4375.3227500910572.08284.66284.729.3828TT8.1968.1912329.5425375767724.8220502022680.760260472960949141151215WETL
2020-12-18 15:00:05FORECAST20218116137.5930.6134.174.1462222778641.83064.56064.729.2806TT5.5962.5912328.7393838631824.3747834274080.664740722556469131151212.5WETL
2020-12-18 11:00:06FORECAST20218116138.9731.5735.2779.1651493295822.74325.56324.7210.2832TT6.9763.9712332.1488850451426.2946160842530.717337448595959141151215WETL
2020-12-18 07:00:07FORECAST20218116140.8130.9635.88577.8933538012492.87915.65914.7210.3791TT8.8166.8112331.2890250215825.8052132364770.780631152919379141151215WETL
2020-12-18 03:00:07FORECAST20218116139.8830.1335.00578.4553697676792.89895.65894.7210.3789TT7.8860.8812331.6693461457826.0212411924720.749701191825929141151215WETL
2020-12-17 23:00:06FORECAST20218116140.9430.3635.6566.1976808991933.78866.48864.1910.6786TT8.9467.9412323.249993754321.3983999372130.784772914111329141151215WETL
2020-12-17 19:00:05FORECAST20218116140.0127.3833.69583.1659031552163.80256.72254.1910.9125TT8.0163.0112334.8357502423527.846917577560.754159021826219141151215WETL
2020-12-17 15:00:05FORECAST20218116141.1430.8135.97580.7259272599655.04037.78034.1911.9703TT9.1468.1412333.2003368200126.8979061531280.791055585326049141151215WETL
2020-12-17 10:58:10FORECAST20218116136.3529.3532.8577.8110138175454.81727.47724.1911.6672TT4.3563.3512331.2332592221825.7735957101680.614511285562239131151212.5WETL
2020-12-17 07:00:07FORECAST20218116139.9729.3534.6674.8179420121564.67377.30374.5211.8237TT7.9768.9712329.198225585124.6299337523310.752791930123449141151215WETL
2020-12-17 02:58:14FORECAST20218116139.0627.433.2379.2505224788214.36066.81064.8511.6606TT7.0665.0612332.2065063417726.3275391984490.720625711317629141151215WETL
2020-12-16 23:00:06FORECAST20218116138.124.9331.51578.1328837616813.36666.62665.211.8266TT6.165.112331.4511834308725.8972367876760.68463169950169131151212.5WETL
2020-12-16 19:00:06FORECAST20218116139.4124.9332.1777.3846403317973.53796.97795.2112.1879TT7.4173.4112330.9443057291425.6100060687060.733234057982449141151215WETL
2020-12-16 15:00:06FORECAST20218116143.8523.3133.5877.0981856762253.38797.06795.0712.1379TT11.8580.8512330.749999467925.5002248713880.865176734450789151151217.5WETL
2020-12-16 11:00:05FORECAST20218116140.2526.2933.2778.6583308342944.2347.1845.1312.314TT8.2576.2512331.8065582968426.0993500355020.762275803720149141151215WETL
2020-12-16 07:00:07FORECAST20218116140.2526.2933.2777.0561369608244.2346.9745.1312.104TT8.2575.2512330.7214653257225.4841185280230.762275803720149141151215WETL
2020-12-16 02:59:43FORECAST20218116141.1325.8633.49578.0654229825544.09047.00045.112.1004TT9.1378.1312331.4055234133525.8713123640180.790744035360639141151215WETL
2020-12-15 23:00:05FORECAST20218116144.7526.8735.8175.1639551979312.92027.78025.112.8802TT12.7583.7512329.4342767071224.7615832150770.885221176534459151151217.5WETL
2020-12-15 19:00:06FORECAST20218116144.7526.8735.8173.7930839874732.92027.68025.0212.7002TT12.7585.7512328.4978462168724.2408691555850.885221176534459151151217.5WETL
2020-12-15 14:58:07FORECAST20218116143.2823.2233.2581.4820645600922.65527.37525.1712.5452TT11.2878.2812333.7082281319227.1912353888790.851309398894899151151217.5WETL
2020-12-15 10:58:17FORECAST20218116140.2623.5131.88574.741941343831.63326.89325.312.1932TT8.2680.2612329.1463499315124.6010371801170.762610787769919141151215WETL
2020-12-15 07:01:05FORECAST20218116140.2623.5131.88575.8333631522341.63326.86325.6512.5132TT8.2674.2612329.8903601090125.0166954785670.762610787769919141151215WETL
2020-12-15 03:00:07FORECAST20218116140.0822.5731.32569.5170736681371.98877.25876.1613.4187TT8.0872.0812325.5559041935722.6316937749210.756541649497829141151215WETL
2020-12-14 23:00:05FORECAST20218116143.4921.832.64567.1745306307773.03898.55896.0314.5889TT11.4981.4912323.9306101665721.7598866948810.856525135903799151151217.5WETL
2020-12-14 18:58:09FORECAST20218116143.4921.832.64564.9894999025473.03898.57895.7914.3689TT11.4983.4912322.4058588122520.9529955298590.856525135903799151151217.5WETL
2020-12-14 15:00:05FORECAST20218116143.2822.1832.7360.8173049374033.0558.0255.6413.665TT11.2885.2812319.4708196419419.4293542567660.851309398894899151151217.5WETL
2020-12-14 11:00:06FORECAST20218116138.9419.6929.31567.3921422708431.39826.92825.4512.3782TT6.9485.9412324.0820004012421.840580278460.71623724703939141151215WETL
2020-12-14 07:00:07FORECAST20218116138.9419.6929.31567.9445042892311.39826.92825.1612.0882TT6.9483.9412324.4658975583522.0456745683620.71623724703939141151215WETL
2020-12-14 03:00:07FORECAST20218116135.2620.8328.04563.8904907921930.94726.83725.3412.1772TT3.2676.2612321.6357471851420.5494657439720.568677885115389131151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 22:59:43FORECAST20218116136.125.6330.86559.5753570972371.11514.45514.538.9851TT4.189.112318.5911147572918.9801794296720.604114766847319131151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 19:00:06FORECAST20218116136.125.6330.86560.0682212500681.1044.4444.438.874TT4.191.112318.9405557796619.1581918701920.604114766847319131151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 15:00:06FORECAST20218116139.3830.4234.962.4808499158291.61514.86514.759.6151TT7.3895.3812320.6448134367220.0341604646280.732164699497689141151215WETL
2020-12-13 11:00:07FORECAST20218116134.5124.329.40563.1399615503270.85184.041859.0418TT2.5179.5112321.1085900967820.2747840321910.536554264263279131151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 07:00:07FORECAST20218116134.5124.329.40562.8997556533470.76833.95835.129.0783TT2.5185.5112320.9396617691120.1870263047450.536554264263279131151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 02:59:45FORECAST20218116131.2128.4829.84559.230078471040.25022.56024.286.8402TT-0.7982.2112318.3460512657318.8556615974150.395213918584449121151210WETL