Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 2, 2020

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DAY 63 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/03/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.86°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.31°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 41.08°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.950 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 16 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 81 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.85 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 7.57 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.42 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 62 in SWE DAY: 30 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 338.37 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 20.83 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 143 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 13.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-03 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	63	143	47.85998	34.30994	41.08496	61.568118333333	0	0.85	7.57	8.42	T	T	15.85998	80.85998	30	338.37405678915	20.833053969324	0.95020643295138	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-12-03 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	63	143	47.85998	34.30994	41.08496	61.568118333333	0	0.85	7.57	8.42	T	T	15.85998	80.85998	30	338.37405678915	20.833053969324	0.95020643295138	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-12-02 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	63	143	48.85	34.5	41.675	62.408998666667	0.0122	0.8622	7.57	8.4322	T	T	16.85	81.85	30	338.92777012276	21.152142753687	0.96138681073704	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-12-02 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	44.14	35.01	39.575	62.45637725	0.0088	0.8588	7.57	8.4288	T	T	12.14	77.14	30	338.95893338053	21.170147015472	0.88416097165829	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-12-02 02:59:52	FORECAST	2021	63	143	40.68	34.49	37.585	62.386458583333	0.0099	0.8599	7.57	8.4299	T	T	8.68	73.68	30	338.91294306899	21.143578286129	0.78154545078918	95	4	3	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-01 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.58	34.15	38.865	61.337658666667	0.0049	0.7949	7.57	8.3649	T	T	11.58	78.58	30	338.22209425011	20.745751370638	0.87039486357009	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-12-01 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.34	32.06	37.7	61.421954666667	0.0018	0.7918	7.57	8.3618	T	T	11.34	78.34	30	338.27768841242	20.777676842413	0.86416232859508	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-12-01 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.35	32.01	37.68	61.487062666667	0.0002	0.7902	7.57	8.3602	T	T	11.35	78.35	30	338.32061972569	20.802341146499	0.86442603475927	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-12-01 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.16	29.89	36.525	61.328292971864	0.0002	0.7902	7.57	8.3602	T	T	11.16	78.16	30	338.21591673404	20.742204829213	0.85935569145764	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-12-01 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.13	29.66	36.395	61.571005967904	0.0002	0.7902	7.57	8.3602	T	T	11.13	78.13	30	338.37596029902	20.834148270966	0.85854353008034	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-12-01 02:59:00	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.06	29.48	36.27	61.766198454537	0.0009	0.7909	7.57	8.3609	T	T	11.06	74.06	30	338.50459755026	20.908142150062	0.85663618268528	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-30 22:59:51	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.32	27.98	34.65	57.621635922771	0.001	0.211	7.57	7.781	T	T	9.32	68.32	30	335.75946927661	19.347009896279	0.80367629146072	95	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-30 19:00:39	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.1	27.43	34.265	57.671739537251	0.0023	0.2023	7.57	7.7723	T	T	9.1	67.1	30	335.79282799165	19.365756514411	0.79622640850319	95	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-30 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.13	27.41	34.27	57.622527754459	0.0023	0.2123	7.57	7.7823	T	T	9.13	67.13	30	335.76006309043	19.347343554267	0.7972520924868	95	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-30 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	63	143	40.69	26.91	33.8	58.517386341733	0.0009	0.2009	7.57	7.7709	T	T	8.69	66.69	30	336.35521502261	19.682628065535	0.78190191504592	95	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-30 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	40.76	27.3	34.03	60.349521985779	0.0009	0.5409	7.57	8.1109	T	T	8.76	66.76	30	337.56951860331	20.372159084679	0.7843877768977	95	4	3	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-30 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.16	27.61	34.385	62.182570811431	0.0005	1.1305	7.57	8.7005	T	T	9.16	70.16	30	338.77878542682	21.066135814214	0.79827469172468	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-29 22:59:02	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.57	28.38	34.975	62.591490168371	0.0016	0.9916	7.58	8.5716	T	T	9.57	69.57	30	339.04778329292	21.221505994587	0.81193906458934	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-29 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.59	28.49	35.04	62.883928308441	0.0016	1.0716	7.58	8.6516	T	T	9.59	67.59	30	339.23998548333	21.33274292649	0.81259070263318	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-29 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.38	28.61	34.995	64.178467590926	0.0014	1.0814	7.58	8.6614	T	T	9.38	67.38	30	340.0890964208	21.826397052669	0.80567912130464	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-29 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	37.43	27.01	32.22	64.018391232861	0.0014	1.2014	7.58	8.7814	T	T	5.43	65.43	30	339.98425075393	21.765244777776	0.64968017590516	95	3	3	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-29 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	37.5	27.79	32.645	64.075585428676	0.0014	1.2014	7.59	8.7914	T	T	5.5	64.5	30	340.02171629351	21.78709052997	0.65281078538388	95	3	3	1	4	1	2	14	WET	L
2020-11-29 02:59:08	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.22	27.92	35.07	64.558843719736	0.0015	1.1915	7.58	8.7715	T	T	10.22	63.22	30	340.33806152016	21.971831725557	0.83240006266985	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-28 22:59:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.1	28.22	35.16	62.921036502328	0.0017	1.1117	7.35	8.4617	T	T	10.1	77.1	30	339.26436428556	21.346865449151	0.82873442199257	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-28 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.12	28.21	35.165	62.969575639865	0.0017	1.1117	7.35	8.4617	T	T	10.12	76.12	30	339.29624935474	21.365340838066	0.82934888722516	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-28 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.45	29.28	35.865	62.267890336583	0.0013	0.9013	7.35	8.2513	T	T	10.45	75.45	30	338.834933914	21.09853650716	0.83928384620696	95	4	3	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-28 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.11	29.57	36.34	62.847300237143	0.0012	1.0012	7.36	8.3612	T	T	11.11	74.11	30	339.21591985153	21.318804760128	0.8580003319035	95	5	3	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-28 06:59:09	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.13	29.57	36.35	63.409932168984	0.0012	1.0812	7.36	8.4412	T	T	11.13	72.13	30	339.58533739044	21.533083209509	0.85854353008034	95	5	3	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-28 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.57	29.33	35.95	62.746717112431	0.0012	0.8612	7.44	8.3012	T	T	10.57	72.57	30	339.14982250572	21.280537971498	0.84280121769905	95	4	3	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-27 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.9	29.49	36.195	66.223379748735	0.0015	1.0915	7.7	8.7915	T	T	10.9	83.9	30	341.42471442068	22.610298518684	0.85221176246977	95	5	3	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-27 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.93	29.48	36.205	65.612755189418	0.0015	1.0715	7.68	8.7515	T	T	10.93	81.93	30	341.02661610304	22.375695875444	0.85304821151717	95	5	3	1	4	1	2	18	WET	L
2020-11-27 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.6	29.14	35.87	65.179901878017	0.0015	1.1015	7.69	8.7915	T	T	10.6	81.6	30	340.74404201696	22.209663224184	0.84367261199683	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-27 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.93	27.37	34.65	66.867608304396	0.0023	1.2823	7.77	9.0523	T	T	9.93	80.93	30	341.84405214254	22.858294179855	0.82345460846014	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-27 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.95	27.38	34.665	66.860986266711	0.0023	1.3023	7.72	9.0223	T	T	9.95	78.95	30	341.8397452515	22.855742512676	0.82408103950168	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-27 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.58	27.18	34.38	66.77875974397	0.0023	1.1723	7.77	8.9423	T	T	9.58	72.58	30	341.78626010769	22.824062547521	0.8122650578602	95	4	3	1	4	1	2	16	WET	L
2020-11-26 22:59:14	FORECAST	2021	63	143	44.22	30.82	37.52	58.977204580275	0.0015	0.2815	7.66	7.9415	T	T	12.22	103.22	30	336.66050488636	19.855295470781	0.88603972219186	95	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-26 18:59:55	FORECAST	2021	63	143	44.24	30.83	37.535	59.01240660003	0.0015	0.2515	7.7	7.9515	T	T	12.24	100.24	30	336.68386208311	19.868524964917	0.8865060092398	95	5	3	1	2	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-26 14:59:10	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.57	28.83	35.7	60.499132770948	0.0015	0.5215	7.67	8.1915	T	T	10.57	92.57	30	337.66842835793	20.428647079784	0.84280121769905	95	4	3	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-26 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.97	28.44	35.205	61.651507873489	0.0008	0.6708	7.65	8.3208	T	T	9.97	79.97	30	338.42902101059	20.864659453452	0.82470606446618	95	4	3	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-26 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	41.98	28.44	35.21	61.615783564338	0.0008	0.6708	7.67	8.3408	T	T	9.98	84.98	30	338.40547561182	20.851118542285	0.82501804951834	95	4	3	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.47	29.65	36.06	61.72580935162	0.0008	0.5108	7.55	8.0608	T	T	10.47	83.47	30	338.47798524631	20.892827587034	0.8398736074601	95	4	3	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.03	29.14	36.085	59.904348915187	0.0004	0.7004	7.15	7.8504	T	T	11.03	87.03	30	337.27498613071	20.204238449539	0.85581347123381	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-25 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	43.05	29.15	36.1	60.005564969328	0.0004	0.7004	7.25	7.9504	T	T	11.05	90.05	30	337.34198128469	20.242396174861	0.85636229746711	95	5	3	1	3	1	2	13.5	WET	L
2020-11-25 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	42.4	28.49	35.445	60.960628705054	0.0004	0.6804	7.27	7.9504	T	T	10.4	87.4	30	337.97329300499	20.603064427101	0.83780326147616	95	4	3	1	3	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	63	143	37.5	32.46	34.98	57.179534124207	0	0.42	7.08	7.5	T	T	5.5	90.5	30	335.46493622402	19.181728768296	0.65281078538388	95	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-25 06:59:57	FORECAST	2021	63	143	33.42	32.47	32.945	58.057900643075	0	0.42	7.19	7.61	T	T	1.42	90.42	30	336.04978956305	19.510345293578	0.46003508761928	95	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-11-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	63	143	32.56	32.11	32.335	60.644062851796	0	0.43	7.29	7.72	T	T	0.56	73.56	30	337.76420779967	20.48339384689	0.41905263801126	95	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L