MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, December 19, 2020

[ Friday, December 18, 2020 | Index | Today | Sunday, December 20, 2020 ]

DAY 80 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/20/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.05°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 27.50°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 29.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.415
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 0
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 65

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 1.52 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.10 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.89 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.99 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 82 in
SWE DAY: 13
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 335.36 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 27.65 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 160

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 1
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 10.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-20 07:00:07OBSERVATION20218016032.0500427.529.7750282.45062251.523.13.896.99TT0.05004000000000365.0500413335.3569389002 27.6503883720160.4148963279252491 21151210WETL
2020-12-20 03:00:07OBSERVATION20218016032.0500427.529.7750282.45062251.523.13.896.99TT0.05004000000000365.0500413335.3569389002 27.6503883720160.4148963279252491 21151210WETL
2020-12-19 11:00:03FORECAST20218016038.0929.8633.97576.359493884851.90943.48943.897.3794TT6.0971.0913331.2634280228225.2951077063830.678037456916219131151212.5WETL
2020-12-19 07:00:07FORECAST20218016038.0526.9132.4877.9632338427681.85423.43423.897.3242TT6.0571.0513332.3473627609625.910875159960.676427867695989131151212.5WETL
2020-12-19 03:00:07FORECAST20218016036.2526.6731.4677.5444483218411.80283.38283.897.2728TT4.2569.2513332.0647400898125.74977707740.600993361117639131151212.5WETL
2020-12-18 23:00:02FORECAST20218016037.3926.1831.78574.8181568152711.72143.43143.897.3214TT5.3974.3913330.2175008036924.7062647582770.649412089424729131151212.5WETL
2020-12-18 19:00:02FORECAST20218016039.0429.5434.2974.2814606136321.70313.41313.897.3031TT7.0476.0413329.8523449498524.5019139697070.715232281883779141151215WETL
2020-12-18 15:00:03FORECAST20218016036.4229.6833.0574.3029587659671.85263.56263.897.4526TT4.4273.4213329.8669813747124.5100927153390.608333849703969131151212.5WETL
2020-12-18 11:00:06FORECAST20218016036.0126.7431.37578.5595718145171.94063.65063.897.5406TT4.0173.0113332.7492904520526.1406417794970.590569816884249131151212.5WETL
2020-12-18 07:00:07FORECAST20218016037.3428.1832.7676.4198604493462.06143.61143.897.5014TT5.3474.3413331.3043085605125.3182290264610.647332157210839131151212.5WETL
2020-12-18 03:00:07FORECAST20218016036.3828.7432.5676.8865495960132.09343.59343.897.4834TT4.3869.3813331.6201413129525.4971284420950.606610035856279131151212.5WETL
2020-12-17 23:00:05FORECAST20218016036.0929.3932.7465.6065264607541.7762.9963.896.886TT4.0975.0913323.8805430035621.2486774146860.594051842211119131151212.5WETL
2020-12-17 19:00:05FORECAST20218016036.0827.931.9973.8676604674121.93093.22093.897.1109TT4.0871.0813329.5704647168724.3445991877930.593616989576059131151212.5WETL
2020-12-17 15:00:05FORECAST20218016035.5429.1532.34571.1559438891221.58743.03743.896.9274TT3.5474.5413327.7158956662723.3189338836020.569977148494659131151212.5WETL
2020-12-17 10:58:10FORECAST20218016035.628.1731.88572.8973239576171.58582.95583.896.8458TT3.674.613328.908309400323.9765355827060.572617862434959131151212.5WETL
2020-12-17 07:00:07FORECAST20218016035.9328.6632.29574.1714928836611.60693.25693.897.1469TT3.9376.9313329.7774639484724.4600868204460.587080633301469131151212.5WETL
2020-12-17 02:58:14FORECAST20218016036.628.632.674.1346766896851.43113.41113.897.3011TT4.673.613329.7523897978124.4460868053120.616064268932049131151212.5WETL
2020-12-16 23:00:06FORECAST20218016035.7930.8133.373.5718511320922.27614.40614.058.4561TT3.7974.7913329.3687780281824.2322707046480.580958139675699131151212.5WETL
2020-12-16 19:00:06FORECAST20218016038.5831.0534.81572.8191414159892.41644.59644.058.6464TT6.5881.5813328.8548867427623.946930503060.697477074907769131151212.5WETL
2020-12-16 15:00:06FORECAST20218016040.9530.1435.54573.5747524335152.62774.69774.058.7477TT8.9584.9513329.3707569095324.2333718984580.783162695621099141151215WETL
2020-12-16 11:00:04FORECAST20218016040.3529.735.02573.1244779021141.9224.0324.058.082TT8.3584.3513329.0634650456724.0625940781250.762890433072229141151215WETL
2020-12-16 07:00:07FORECAST20218016040.3530.8635.60571.4070938342261.71453.85454.027.8745TT8.3583.3513327.8881967795423.4135432345720.762890433072229141151215WETL
2020-12-16 02:59:43FORECAST20218016040.1630.3735.26573.072501770341.73573.91574.098.0057TT8.1685.1613329.0279710715324.0428969986160.756260621612029141151215WETL
2020-12-15 23:00:05FORECAST20218016043.7731.1237.44571.4494858428963.76485.94484.029.9648TT11.7786.7713327.9172689247923.4295202636830.864178722045929151151217.5WETL
2020-12-15 19:00:06FORECAST20218016043.7733.6738.7269.995790279733.63345.783449.7834TT11.7788.7713326.9185455693822.8829219542290.864178722045929151151217.5WETL
2020-12-15 14:58:07FORECAST20218016040.9130.9635.93576.8071190630613.68795.82794.069.8879TT8.9182.9113331.5664129854325.4666609594840.781843123606149141151215WETL
2020-12-15 10:58:17FORECAST20218016039.9732.436.18570.445153327733.99766.46764.0910.5576TT7.9787.9713327.2276625184223.0516028591850.749532160596299141151215WETL
2020-12-15 07:01:05FORECAST20218016039.9732.436.18571.4599203216993.99766.52764.3510.8776TT7.9781.9713327.9244243378523.4334532347220.749532160596299141151215WETL
2020-12-15 03:00:07FORECAST20218016039.5933.1636.37566.7186116105824.10466.86464.5711.4346TT7.5979.5913324.6534725849521.6604289454220.735785885789369141151215WETL
2020-12-14 23:00:05FORECAST20218016041.5230.9136.21563.4266632377374.17647.02644.5211.5464TT9.5285.5213322.3591296303620.4461639566740.801460308085799141151215WETL
2020-12-14 18:58:09FORECAST20218016041.5231.2136.36561.1275181609834.16536.79534.5311.3253TT9.5287.5213320.7453105772219.6063647973590.801460308085799141151215WETL
2020-12-14 15:00:05FORECAST20218016041.4231.2236.3258.4235271420913.62286.10284.5110.6128TT9.4290.4213318.8352222821818.6274782628580.798319190218419141151215WETL
2020-12-14 11:00:06FORECAST20218016042.0630.4336.24562.5890809920444.136.644.3410.98TT10.0695.0613321.7723037496220.1394327803810.817907773455239141151215WETL
2020-12-14 07:00:07FORECAST20218016042.0630.4336.24562.9829520853714.136.64.0910.69TT10.0693.0613322.0484127551220.2835597497250.817907773455239141151215WETL
2020-12-14 03:00:07FORECAST20218016041.634.638.159.5092342217244.39877.15874.0711.2287TT9.688.613319.6037379451719.0193736995180.803951872395699141151215WETL
2020-12-13 22:59:43FORECAST20218016040.4533.2336.8455.1897539790513.00684.01683.857.8668TT8.45101.4513316.5336049688617.4694117843330.766339668984229141151215WETL
2020-12-13 19:00:06FORECAST20218016040.4533.2336.8455.4719337777073.00683.89683.877.7668TT8.45103.4513316.735198333817.5699139470420.766339668984229141151215WETL
2020-12-13 15:00:06FORECAST20218016042.4132.5337.4757.3873944948872.90684.07683.927.9968TT10.41104.4113318.0998187553618.2549197876660.828100092437359141151215WETL
2020-12-13 11:00:07FORECAST20218016040.8632.0736.46559.1826276086372.81164.34163.858.1916TT8.8692.8613319.372772921418.9013198881450.78018718051099141151215WETL
2020-12-13 07:00:07FORECAST20218016040.8632.0736.46559.1568515795062.81164.34163.978.3116TT8.8698.8613319.354536836618.8920089368850.78018718051099141151215WETL
2020-12-13 02:59:45FORECAST20218016038.9730.7234.84558.7453427472762.11982.67983.916.5898TT6.9798.9713319.063239874218.7434793844660.712562688386929141151215WETL
2020-12-12 23:00:06FORECAST20218016037.1728.6132.8957.4699366164513.11963.60963.677.2796TT5.17103.1713318.1584746697918.284547373260.640227728077049131151212.5WETL
2020-12-12 19:00:06FORECAST20218016034.1426.6330.38558.9764465958462.57263.59263.687.2726TT2.1494.1413319.2268700746418.8268664549160.507719986988889131151212.5WETL
2020-12-12 14:58:17FORECAST20218016034.1428.6931.41574.665267782981.50272.52273.616.1327TT2.1496.1413330.1135292925624.6480150634130.507719986988889131151212.5WETL
2020-12-12 11:00:06FORECAST20218016035.3228.932.1168.1780757963050.51581.58583.374.9558TF3.32101.3213325.6645329494122.2031812115930.560268604865929131151212.5WETL
2020-12-12 07:00:07FORECAST20218016035.3231.3733.34565.6767789709310.26851.33853.374.7085TF3.32105.3213323.9294350501621.2746419079680.560268604865929131141210WETL
2020-12-12 03:00:07FORECAST20218016031.8531.5831.71567.5624135760830.04691.35693.184.5369TF-0.1594.8513325.2384829777321.9738968977990.40617502298637912114128WETL