MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, December 15, 2020

[ Monday, December 14, 2020 | Index | Today | Wednesday, December 16, 2020 ]

DAY 76 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/16/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 30.26°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 26.92°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.352
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 95 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: -2
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 96

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.77 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.76 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.25 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.01 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 59 in
SWE DAY: 17
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 323.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 19.16 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 156

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 5
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 12.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-16 07:00:07OBSERVATION20217615630.2599423.5700626.91559.2190416666670.769999999999981.762.254.01TF-1.7400696.2599417323.59974538468 19.1632668052580.3515939741406995 22151212.5WETL
2020-12-16 02:59:43OBSERVATION20217615630.2599423.5700626.91559.2190416666670.769999999999981.762.254.01TF-1.7400696.2599417323.59974538468 19.1632668052580.3515939741406995 22151212.5WETL
2020-12-15 10:58:15FORECAST20217615633.0924.4928.7959.2529193271340.61761.60762.253.8576TF1.0999.0917323.6233477024519.175628113790.500358917076499532151215DRYL
2020-12-15 07:01:05FORECAST20217615630.124.6627.3860.3767954774930.85491.84492.254.0949TF-1.996.117324.4051938146119.5865460387810.343619371572219522151212.5WETL
2020-12-15 03:00:07FORECAST20217615630.323.4226.8659.8204110567081.06472.05472.254.3047TF-1.796.317324.0184132233519.3829146689630.353601796112119522151212.5WETL
2020-12-14 23:00:01FORECAST20217615631.825.0528.42554.7655726071121.22392.03392.254.2839TF-0.2102.817320.4792969458317.5512322059630.431252278251919522151212.5WETL
2020-12-14 18:58:07FORECAST20217615632.4525.4228.93554.8419009945751.26972.07972.254.3297TF0.45103.4517320.5330764227117.5786432426610.465944340131599522151212.5WETL
2020-12-14 15:00:03FORECAST20217615633.7524.8129.2854.436807340341.27122.08122.254.3312TF1.75104.7517320.2475362115217.4332534299650.535843353190259532151215WETL
2020-12-14 11:00:04FORECAST20217615632.3824.8228.654.8008930359481.26232.07232.254.3223TF0.38103.3817320.5041843196717.5639155224760.462191020968359522151212.5WETL
2020-12-14 07:00:07FORECAST20217615632.0725.128.58555.1231570514561.16072.08072.254.3307TF0.07103.0717320.7311539251317.679713769110.445614153883069522151212.5WETL
2020-12-14 03:00:07FORECAST20217615632.0625.1128.58554.5781306729011.182.232.254.48TF0.060000000000002103.0617320.3471848050117.4839505129840.445080837898989522151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 22:59:43FORECAST20217615632.3425.7329.03554.9677150094741.1721.9422.254.192TF0.34108.3417320.6216997428817.623842217320.460047756107789522151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 19:00:05FORECAST20217615632.125.0428.5755.0669622704561.18571.96572.254.2157TF0.1109.117320.6915894773717.6595116582030.447214688559969522151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 15:00:05FORECAST20217615632.3224.8628.5956.5765397607831.18521.92522.254.1752TF0.32109.3217321.7524619564218.2036409570070.458976554892759522151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 11:00:06FORECAST2021761563224.8828.4456.8978492136911.17581.87582.254.1258TF010717321.9777412042918.3198409692070.441883062191789522151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 07:00:07FORECAST20217615632.5723.9128.2457.017289452421.23692.01692.254.2669TF0.57108.5717322.0614373078318.3630701924430.472385469990669522151212.5WETL
2020-12-13 02:59:45FORECAST20217615632.8123.8528.3358.2396420962991.21572.18572.254.4357TF0.81108.8117322.9165260623718.8065429048530.48528773424239522151212.5WETL
2020-12-12 23:00:06FORECAST20217615629.1124.2626.68558.0155099497851.15042.18042.264.4404TF-2.89109.1117322.7599345970618.7250821970070.295905837689859522151212.5WETL
2020-12-12 19:00:04FORECAST20217615631.3724.8428.10557.6025103489511.10212.24212.264.5021TF-0.63110.3717322.4711560039718.5751481009570.408573584836839522151212.5WETL
2020-12-12 14:58:17FORECAST20217615632.0124.6128.3161.7121342096550.99072.23072.264.4907TF0.009999999999998112.0117325.3312512919720.0768858423250.442415767649919522151212.5WETL
2020-12-12 11:00:06FORECAST20217615631.7524.1927.9760.9988025472050.73011.90012.264.1601TF-0.25110.7517324.8369465477419.8146647625030.428602034762669522151212.5WETL
2020-12-12 07:00:07FORECAST20217615633.6325.529.56560.1700461114770.70331.90332.264.1633TF1.63114.6317324.2615321068419.5108313390460.529404529789539532151215WETL
2020-12-12 03:00:07FORECAST20217615635.2425.8530.54559.5096425134440.66491.82492.264.0849TF3.24113.2417323.8021388706319.269349529280.614491253228389532151215WETL
2020-12-11 23:00:06FORECAST20217615631.8225.7428.7860.3526031406891.12382.26382.144.4038TF-0.18113.8217324.3883874429519.5776836107930.432313249780769522151212.5WETL
2020-12-11 18:58:25FORECAST20217615631.8525.1528.561.6018462300441.12312.54312.144.6831TF-0.15112.8517325.2548855124820.036301442910.433905620222169522151212.5WETL
2020-12-11 15:00:06FORECAST20217615631.8725.1928.5361.4401585447531.14352.49352.134.6235TF-0.13116.8717325.1428907887119.9768307597580.434967798327789522151212.5WETL
2020-12-11 11:00:06FORECAST20217615635.4423.5629.557.8712194373470.45921.58922.133.7192TF3.44116.4417322.6590778596818.672674298270.624770655216089532151215DRYL
2020-12-11 07:00:07FORECAST20217615635.4723.5929.5358.7154192802820.45921.74922.143.8892TF3.47121.4717323.2486357406818.9796791792930.62630515436259532151215DRYL
2020-12-11 03:00:07FORECAST20217615632.9722.0927.5358.9222636040030.34331.64332.253.8933TF0.97116.9717323.3928954337319.0550414324080.493898646747979522151212.5DRYL
2020-12-10 22:58:31FORECAST20217615635.4124.6830.04564.0443482776531.16882.62882.445.0688TF3.41125.4117326.9411274951620.9387314355890.623234179748559532151215WETL
2020-12-10 19:00:03FORECAST20217615635.4424.7230.0863.9972567956631.16882.50882.615.1188TF3.44128.4417326.9087155254120.921261016220.624770655216089532151215WETL
2020-12-10 15:00:06FORECAST20217615631.825.5328.66566.4153301938921.1822.6622.735.392TF-0.2124.817328.5680177826521.8219533921870.431252278251919522151212.5WETL
2020-12-10 11:00:06FORECAST20217615630.3124.1127.2168.5307992200960.93432.69432.845.5343TT-1.69115.3117330.0113358298422.615940596110.354103637998559522151212.5WETL
2020-12-10 07:00:07FORECAST20217615631.1924.9528.0768.7151679579570.93432.76433.025.7843TT-0.81120.1917330.1367578092522.6854027619580.399165767882169522151212.5WETL
2020-12-10 03:00:08FORECAST20217615634.9428.6531.79571.1880658531241.39283.51282.936.4428TT2.94121.9417331.8133507635523.6211506651010.598922376231869532151215WETL
2020-12-09 22:58:26FORECAST20217615635.526.330.977.3855691053971.69864.05862.997.0486TT3.5122.517335.9692000659725.999167748990.627837654637719532151215WETL
2020-12-09 18:58:36FORECAST20217615635.5426.3130.92576.3829611007551.69863.98862.636.6186TT3.54124.5417335.3013106468425.611306968170.629877840185929532151215WETL
2020-12-09 15:00:06FORECAST20217615633.8527.4130.6383.4972311694262.25995.01992.627.6399TT1.85120.8517340.0039169669328.3893856534980.541201949901219532151215WETL
2020-12-09 11:00:06FORECAST20217615633.6125.6929.6570.3698351163240.62962.68962.685.3696TF1.61119.6117331.2597662050923.3106951285240.528330598885689532151215WETL
2020-12-09 07:00:07FORECAST20217615633.6425.7129.67570.3081137655010.62962.68962.695.3796TF1.64125.6417331.2179611438923.2873100932820.529941415549059532151215WETL
2020-12-09 03:00:07FORECAST20217615632.8225.6229.2271.6558318965710.85662.82662.635.4566TT0.82127.8217332.1293074280423.7990018209880.485825757021149522151212.5WETL
2020-12-08 22:58:37FORECAST20217615632.6524.3128.4873.3022738682281.16612.19612.754.9461TF0.65133.6517333.238429756224.4271346414070.476683676935239522151212.5WETL
2020-12-08 19:00:05FORECAST20217615632.6824.428.5471.5338061017380.92581.95582.824.7758TF0.68137.6817332.0469202257223.7525800081060.478296231179299522151212.5WETL
2020-12-08 15:00:06FORECAST20217615629.5925.1627.37577.3626413747291.39972.58973.075.6597TT-2.41134.5917335.9539457055525.9902846200440.318666009758129522151212.5WETL
2020-12-08 11:00:53FORECAST20217615626.7925.1225.95572.021258748270.08411.94413.735.6741TF-5.21118.7917332.3758771378323.9381290490270.19783903322859512151210WETL
2020-12-08 07:00:07FORECAST20217615626.8225.5826.271.5837801186630.03811.89813.825.7181TF-5.18119.8217332.0806638796923.7715892248230.198967473795739512151210WETL
2020-12-08 03:00:08FORECAST20217615627.3426.0126.67571.565593770230.03852.23853.315.5485TF-4.66124.3417332.0683845170923.7646711102860.219135612657889512151210WETL