Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, December 10, 2020

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DAY 71 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/11/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 28.94°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.18°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 25.06°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.311 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 112 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.10 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.74 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 2.86 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.60 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 51 in SWE DAY: 22 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 323.02 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 16.44 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 151 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 2 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 7.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-11 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	71	151	28.94	21.18002	25.06001	50.903769583333	0.10000000000002	0.74000000000002	2.86	3.6	T	F	-3.06	111.94	22	323.01739454428	16.442803023291	0.31138193697142	91	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-12-11 03:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	71	151	28.94	21.18002	25.06001	50.903769583333	0.10000000000002	0.74000000000002	2.86	3.6	T	F	-3.06	111.94	22	323.01739454428	16.442803023291	0.31138193697142	91	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-12-10 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	71	151	36.36	24.17	30.265	51.601627983017	0.1494	0.7894	2.86	3.6494	T	F	4.36	119.36	22	323.50420896612	16.69334384201	0.60004230705804	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-10 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	35.34	23.61	29.475	51.471543949982	0.1402	0.7802	2.86	3.6402	T	F	3.34	118.34	22	323.41352992785	16.6465937197	0.56000846518263	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-10 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	71	151	30.59	22.05	26.32	51.335701780522	0.11	0.75	2.86	3.61	T	F	-1.41	113.59	22	323.31880501943	16.597797754512	0.37214447736829	91	2	2	1	3	1	2	7.5	DRY	L
2020-12-09 22:58:22	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.76	25.4	30.08	53.36655087272	0.0912	0.7212	2.86	3.5812	T	F	2.76	115.76	22	324.73154592132	17.329802565387	0.53693931051079	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-09 18:58:33	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.6	25.41	30.005	53.206399691987	0.0612	0.6912	2.86	3.5512	T	F	2.6	115.6	22	324.62040276105	17.271882897478	0.53055010972121	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-09 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.62	26.2	30.41	53.254926817616	0.073	0.703	2.86	3.563	T	F	2.62	115.62	22	324.6540848275	17.289429528529	0.53134922422	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-09 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.99	26.2	30.595	53.278197741246	0.0117	0.6417	2.86	3.5017	T	F	2.99	115.99	22	324.67023540964	17.297845002852	0.54610670018533	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-09 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.57	25.01	29.79	52.801180672923	0.0085	0.6385	2.86	3.4985	T	F	2.57	118.57	22	324.33898321005	17.125481251746	0.5293512082102	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-09 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.54	24.91	29.725	52.937606386068	0.0075	0.6775	2.86	3.5375	T	F	2.54	116.54	22	324.43376151003	17.17474676517	0.52815204060807	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-08 22:58:35	FORECAST	2021	71	151	33.85	25.45	29.65	56.307854751156	0.0149	1.0049	2.86	3.8649	T	F	1.85	124.85	22	326.76475892781	18.399422583504	0.50052273539547	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-12-08 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.73	25.29	30.01	56.377473336629	0.0133	1.0333	2.86	3.8933	T	F	2.73	125.73	22	326.81269986092	18.424874272481	0.53574201081153	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-12-08 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.88	25.09	29.985	56.38335993492	0.0087	1.0487	2.86	3.9087	T	F	2.88	125.88	22	326.816753117	18.427026623758	0.54172505637313	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-12-08 11:00:53	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.35	25.36	29.855	55.503506503297	0.0125	1.0625	2.86	3.9225	T	F	2.35	125.35	22	326.21025130233	18.105812804601	0.52055183266968	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	DRY	L
2020-12-08 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	35.05	25.39	30.22	55.712909896167	0.0126	1.2326	2.86	4.0926	T	F	3.05	125.05	22	326.35472047663	18.182171136103	0.54849435920587	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-08 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	35.18	25.62	30.4	55.745123389217	0.013	1.333	2.86	4.193	T	F	3.18	121.18	22	326.37693801949	18.193922681291	0.55366149299347	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-07 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	71	151	35.35	24.49	29.92	56.014278273334	0.0114	1.2914	2.87	4.1614	T	F	3.35	117.35	22	326.56250224749	18.292162874527	0.56040465677981	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-07 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	35.16	23.85	29.505	56.633883287392	0.0994	1.4194	2.87	4.2894	T	F	3.16	118.16	22	326.98919646267	18.518667988705	0.55286711970098	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-07 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	71	151	35.02	24.33	29.675	57.033881145079	0.1479	1.4379	2.87	4.3079	T	F	3.02	116.02	22	327.2643005891	18.665153222826	0.54730074347586	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-07 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	71	151	31.19	25.29	28.24	56.836581206683	0.1573	1.4373	2.87	4.3073	T	F	-0.81	110.19	22	327.12863972595	18.592873496816	0.39515636036445	91	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-07 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	28.34	25.7	27.02	56.496028848553	0.1776	1.1076	2.87	3.9776	T	F	-3.66	111.34	22	326.89432036093	18.468230953539	0.29040051497915	91	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-12-07 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	32.84	22.69	27.765	57.000308727998	0.2399	1.1199	2.87	3.9899	T	F	0.84	110.84	22	327.24122143286	18.6528506502	0.46011227049612	91	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-12-06 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	71	151	27.94	22.46	25.2	57.433359601211	0.2634	1.2734	2.73	4.0034	T	F	-4.06	112.94	22	327.53876867126	18.811651884434	0.27679087052012	91	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-06 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	29.85	23.11	26.48	56.872187980871	0.196	1.156	2.72	3.876	T	F	-2.15	114.85	22	327.15312750707	18.605914166112	0.34438747896442	91	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	DRY	L
2020-12-06 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	29.86	23.14	26.5	58.06719529308	0.1838	1.3238	2.71	4.0338	T	F	-2.14	114.86	22	327.9736845617	19.044511992436	0.34475743711784	91	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-06 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	71	151	27.74	23.4	25.57	61.500088553734	0.5887	1.9187	2.71	4.6287	T	F	-4.26	108.74	22	330.31708870274	20.31453020603	0.27010508980381	91	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-06 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	27.76	23.41	25.585	62.367065001944	0.5887	2.0787	2.76	4.8387	T	F	-4.24	111.76	22	330.90569010774	20.637616684463	0.27077002010613	91	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-06 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	29.31	23.15	26.23	61.753366541315	0.5803	1.8803	2.87	4.7503	T	F	-2.69	112.31	22	330.48917641021	20.408819248797	0.32463866925141	91	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-05 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	71	151	31.49	22.97	27.23	63.248225943336	0.5415	1.9915	2.94	4.9315	T	F	-0.51	107.49	22	331.50259486966	20.966951021118	0.40680656326301	91	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-05 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	31.51	22.99	27.25	63.246789478867	0.5415	2.1515	2.99	5.1415	T	F	-0.49	109.51	22	331.50162288505	20.966413354514	0.40758630723574	91	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-05 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	31.88	23.8	27.84	64.567693999136	0.7023	2.7123	2.94	5.6523	T	T	-0.12	109.88	22	332.39391770411	21.461908765493	0.42207447713561	91	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-05 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.34	27.5	30.92	62.816908194024	0.9038	2.3638	2.99	5.3538	T	F	2.34	109.34	22	331.21058404288	20.805624850711	0.52015159036253	91	3	2	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-05 06:59:50	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.37	27.52	30.945	62.924209553586	0.9038	2.2938	3.07	5.3638	T	F	2.37	108.37	22	331.28325912656	20.845737218874	0.52135225471707	91	3	2	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-12-05 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.63	24.7	29.665	59.686128663278	0.3903	1.4303	3.05	4.4803	T	F	2.63	114.63	22	329.08136706305	19.641592815213	0.53174873431442	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-04 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	30.72	25.42	28.07	62.376407444437	0.5053	1.7853	3.06	4.8453	T	F	-1.28	111.72	22	330.91202575519	20.64110334677	0.37709494592624	91	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-04 18:58:42	FORECAST	2021	71	151	31	25.49	28.245	59.922058467978	0.5053	1.7153	3.18	4.8953	T	F	-1	110	22	329.24241151637	19.728883033022	0.38782536090953	91	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-04 15:00:47	FORECAST	2021	71	151	31.54	24.58	28.06	61.591314266581	0.8666	2.0266	2.95	4.9766	T	F	-0.46	118.54	22	330.37908404214	20.348481992344	0.40875660892561	91	2	2	1	5	1	2	12.5	WET	L
2020-12-04 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	71	151	32.98	24.64	28.81	57.517983668217	0.3759	1.2159	3.1	4.3159	T	F	0.98	109.98	22	327.59687525624	18.842711720747	0.46569864723042	91	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-04 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	33.01	24.65	28.83	57.614298703666	0.3759	1.2159	3.03	4.2459	T	F	1.01	109.01	22	327.66299417604	18.878073620596	0.46689664580108	91	2	2	1	4	1	2	10	WET	L
2020-12-04 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.74	26.85	30.795	56.991683223046	0.246	1.266	2.86	4.126	T	F	2.74	107.74	22	327.23529156357	18.649690076192	0.53614114721527	91	3	2	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-03 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.03	25.01	29.52	58.074839261606	0.1489	0.8089	2.74	3.5489	T	F	2.03	121.03	22	327.97892531381	19.047323368794	0.50773600118566	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-03 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.06	25.51	29.785	58.071531879135	0.1374	0.7974	2.8	3.5974	T	F	2.06	121.06	22	327.97665776442	19.046106936978	0.50893802994342	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-03 15:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	34.84	25.16	30	58.20978853743	0.0171	0.8871	2.94	3.8271	T	F	2.84	117.84	22	328.07143061886	19.096968601496	0.54013044499779	91	3	2	1	3	1	2	9	DRY	L
2020-12-03 10:58:47	FORECAST	2021	71	151	26.64	23.34	24.99	59.548750297732	0.0182	1.0082	2.9	3.9082	T	F	-5.36	104.64	22	328.98754883985	19.590797396927	0.23483482316102	91	1	2	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-12-03 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	71	151	26.41	23.34	24.875	58.721706355507	0.0179	1.0079	2.86	3.8679	T	F	-5.59	109.41	22	328.42205295072	19.285503354045	0.2277952399843	91	1	2	1	4	1	2	8	DRY	L
2020-12-03 03:00:08	FORECAST	2021	71	151	26.17	24.33	25.25	58.000375246626	0.0282	1.0282	3.09	4.1182	T	F	-5.83	109.17	22	327.92786799185	19.019939397353	0.22057769671274	91	1	2	1	4	1	2	8	WET	L