MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, December 9, 2020

[ Tuesday, December 8, 2020 | Index | Today | Thursday, December 10, 2020 ]

DAY 70 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/10/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 32.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 23.09°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.464
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 1
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 123

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.09 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.64 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.45 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 4.09 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 51 in
SWE DAY: 23
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 324.07 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 16.50 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 150

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 1
D3: 3
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 7.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-10 07:00:07OBSERVATION20217015032.8699423.0927.9799750.9250950.0899999999999750.639999999999983.454.09TF0.86994122.8699423324.07479887455 16.5035399197920.463965406929589 2213127.5WETL
2020-12-10 03:00:08OBSERVATION20217015032.8699423.0927.9799750.9250950.0899999999999750.639999999999983.454.09TF0.86994122.8699423324.07479887455 16.5035399197920.463965406929589 2213127.5WETL
2020-12-09 11:00:02FORECAST20217015031.1527.0629.10553.2717378955630.07960.62963.454.0796TF-0.85121.1523325.7020721034417.3507154171360.40054919520371892213127.5WETL
2020-12-09 07:00:07FORECAST20217015034.1627.8931.02552.8223245994320.08070.63073.454.0807TF2.16124.1623325.3911780982717.1879184312980.51223332616061893213129WETL
2020-12-09 03:00:07FORECAST20217015032.1628.2630.2152.9569784855370.12360.67363.454.1236TF0.16122.1623325.4843658658217.2366685605350.43758243795413892213127.5WETL
2020-12-08 22:58:34FORECAST20217015036.6227.2831.9556.3056366015670.27330.99333.454.4433TF4.62130.6223327.7915959112518.4565144804260.603195625411118932141212WETL
2020-12-08 19:00:02FORECAST20217015036.9827.5432.2656.3691794563690.29611.01613.454.4661TF4.98130.9823327.8351875794518.4798005207790.616165866934948932141212WETL
2020-12-08 15:00:04FORECAST20217015036.6827.6832.1856.3994779362380.32181.04183.454.4918TF4.68130.6823327.8559704650718.4909055725090.605365703223448932141212WETL
2020-12-08 11:00:53FORECAST2021701503727.3232.1655.5093003568710.33381.05383.454.5038TF513123327.2446963275218.1651241386370.616882783097468932141212WETL
2020-12-08 07:00:07FORECAST20217015036.7526.9831.86555.7056844906950.32011.22013.454.6701TF4.75129.7523327.3796697760218.2369085932110.607893331179058932141212WETL
2020-12-08 03:00:07FORECAST20217015037.0127.3632.18555.7297236644490.37231.32233.454.7723TF5.01126.0123327.3961871082118.2456990363350.617241091331018932141212WETL
2020-12-07 23:00:04FORECAST20217015037.0527.4932.2756.0153047960090.19861.28863.454.7386TF5.05122.0523327.592332953718.3501843792370.618673318574018932141212WETL
2020-12-07 19:00:06FORECAST20217015036.9927.532.24556.3147942527930.38561.32563.454.7756TF4.99122.9923327.7978786769218.4598700941930.61652437486958932141212WETL
2020-12-07 15:00:05FORECAST20217015036.827.8432.3256.279246162440.35771.29773.454.7477TF4.8120.823327.7734894747418.4468448996710.609696003911768932141212WETL
2020-12-07 11:00:05FORECAST20217015035.3227.3731.34556.0499450404510.34371.29373.454.7437TF3.32119.3223327.6161152575318.362865254550.555502578435118932141212WETL
2020-12-07 07:00:07FORECAST20217015033.8726.9130.3955.6208716601490.17690.93693.454.3869TF1.87122.8723327.3213867673418.2059008450080.50137334099812893213129WETL
2020-12-07 03:00:07FORECAST20217015033.9927.0630.52555.6882145326760.17780.88783.454.3378TF1.99117.9923327.367665523518.2305207887340.50586771155045893213129WETL
2020-12-06 23:00:05FORECAST20217015033.726.3530.02555.9677396827060.16031.03033.34.3303TF1.7124.723327.5596736552518.3327745456890.495006153294728922141210WETL
2020-12-06 19:00:06FORECAST20217015033.625.8529.72555.8479926006990.25290.97293.34.2729TF1.6124.623327.4774350874618.2889573716610.49126123898125892213127.5WETL
2020-12-06 15:00:06FORECAST20217015035.8424.7430.2957.0866545838730.28091.14093.34.4409TF3.84124.8423328.3269019522118.7430844423390.574717122236218932141212WETL
2020-12-06 11:00:05FORECAST20217015031.7525.8828.81557.878147461930.41141.33143.34.6314TF-0.25120.7523328.8683051291219.0342882598180.422463784071978922141210WETL
2020-12-06 07:00:07FORECAST20217015033.5525.929.72558.6923030118210.50371.49373.354.8437TF1.55123.5523329.4240757413119.3346576727980.489389050007118922141210WETL
2020-12-06 03:00:07FORECAST20217015033.0326.5829.80558.3099059611670.50811.29813.464.7581TF1.03123.0323329.1631814799419.1934741579740.469939789189468922141210WETL
2020-12-05 23:00:05FORECAST20217015033.9625.0729.51560.1695228229340.56191.45193.534.9819TF1.96115.9623330.4295470314719.8817881714820.504744166450298932141212WETL
2020-12-05 19:00:06FORECAST20217015034.2925.0929.6960.101856838840.57541.61543.575.1854TF2.29118.2923330.3835725061319.8566661766680.51709913289828932151215WETL
2020-12-05 15:00:06FORECAST20217015034.5224.7229.6260.5128833787880.61682.05683.485.5368TF2.52117.5223330.6627158998920.0093543649630.525701178233228932151215WETL
2020-12-05 11:00:06FORECAST20217015032.4626.4129.43558.8483886113590.28711.48713.555.0371TF0.46115.4623329.5304939178119.3923385653680.448704199513688922141210WETL
2020-12-05 06:59:50FORECAST20217015032.4826.4429.4658.8705274307370.28711.41713.635.0471TF0.48114.4823329.5455846089219.4005223783980.449447184919498922141210WETL
2020-12-05 03:00:07FORECAST20217015032.627.1629.8857.8863659315270.26791.07793.64.6779TF0.6119.623328.8739210836719.0373161411860.453908729729358922141210WETL
2020-12-04 23:00:05FORECAST20217015032.6829.9531.31558.7143362948960.21541.31543.614.9254TF0.68120.6823329.4391004522219.342798132640.456886362851168922141210WETL
2020-12-04 18:58:41FORECAST20217015033.0130.1531.5857.0446106666670.21541.20543.774.9754TF1.01119.0123328.2981122860918.7276379979620.4691928734638922141210WETL
2020-12-04 15:00:47FORECAST20217015037.2230.2233.7256.6775240.31551.15553.544.6955TF5.22127.2223328.0466182217118.592870077380.624741958598932141212WETL
2020-12-04 11:00:05FORECAST20217015036.2727.2331.7556.0037209570530.12410.84413.694.5341TF4.27117.2723327.5843795874718.3459441843060.5904751388086893213129WETL
2020-12-04 07:00:07FORECAST20217015036.327.2431.7756.0344958387810.12410.84413.624.4641TF4.3116.323327.6055088470118.3572095222490.59156941121769893213129WETL
2020-12-04 03:00:08FORECAST20217015033.2826.4829.8856.167659570810.14721.01723.454.4672TF1.28113.2823327.6969166823318.4059688586170.479284313185658922141210WETL
2020-12-03 23:00:06FORECAST20217015032.7126.2129.4657.663782158860.07450.66453.333.9945TF0.71126.7123328.7217807479218.955341155920.45800360874744892213127.5DRYL
2020-12-03 19:00:06FORECAST20217015032.7126.2229.46557.7152037373830.07450.66453.394.0545TF0.71126.7123328.7569360371418.9742735434610.45800360874744892213127.5WETL
2020-12-03 15:00:06FORECAST20217015032.9224.2228.5758.2086576618150.11870.86873.534.3987TF0.92122.9223329.0940613620319.1561235563590.46583313191874892213127.5WETL
2020-12-03 10:58:47FORECAST20217015033.3326.1829.75559.4314950668310.50380.99383.494.4838TF1.33118.3323329.9276792098219.6080952393690.481154750446248922141210WETL
2020-12-03 07:00:07FORECAST20217015033.3526.1929.7758.5985589956490.50380.99383.454.4438TF1.35123.3523329.36014138119.300029675530.481903043843098922141210WETL
2020-12-03 03:00:08FORECAST20217015034.1925.3529.7757.7818609303520.53381.00383.684.6838TF2.19123.1923328.802500595518.9988203629610.513356392697958932141212WETL
2020-12-02 23:00:06FORECAST20217015045.6231.138.3656.9389973333330.52651.17653.524.6965TF13.62140.6223328.225779757418.6888467983380.865821280987948952141216WETL
2020-12-02 19:00:06FORECAST20217015045.6533.8639.75557.0493146666670.431.083.584.66TF13.65135.6523328.3013335133418.7293660810890.866429952257738952141216WETL
2020-12-02 15:00:06FORECAST20217015041.435.1638.2857.478940.17150.76153.524.2815TF9.4135.423328.5953721486418.8873136800090.761281532817748942131210.5WETL
2020-12-02 11:00:06FORECAST20217015035.0430.0532.54557.8175175515690.37760.66763.54.1676TF3.04121.0423328.8268710652219.0119533892410.54509900531093893213129WETL
2020-12-02 07:00:07FORECAST20217015035.0630.8232.9457.3816705833330.22460.51463.54.0146TF3.06122.0623328.5288283643818.8515330063330.54584323075346893213129WETL
2020-12-02 02:59:52FORECAST20217015033.430.4931.94557.948945250.1590.4393.463.899TF1.4120.423328.9166797757219.0603746681350.4837740505317892212125DRYL