MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, December 7, 2020

[ Sunday, December 6, 2020 | Index | Today | Tuesday, December 8, 2020 ]

DAY 68 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/08/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 47.20°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.88°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.935
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 91 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 15
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 125

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.18 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.28 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 3.46 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 56 in
SWE DAY: 25
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 329.84 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 18.57 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 148

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 1
D3: 2
D4: 1
D5: 2
HSdry: 9.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-08 07:00:07OBSERVATION20216814847.1999234.5700440.8849856.3138637500.183.283.46FF15.19992125.1999225329.84224042598 18.5746909863440.9345488751221191 5312129DRYL
2020-12-08 03:00:07OBSERVATION20216814847.1999234.5700440.8849856.3138637500.183.283.46FF15.19992125.1999225329.84224042598 18.5746909863440.9345488751221191 5312129DRYL
2020-12-07 11:00:03FORECAST20216814842.738.3540.52556.2776346666670.00930.18933.283.4693FF10.7120.725329.8175721142418.5613528300920.85541892768307915312129DRYL
2020-12-07 07:00:07FORECAST20216814848.238.3243.2655.876136250.00920.18923.283.4692FF16.2126.225329.5440406007718.4136477129840.94639091447735915312129DRYL
2020-12-07 03:00:07FORECAST20216814843.236.6839.9455.9846495833330.01160.19163.283.4716FF11.2121.225329.6179957155718.4535479864970.86649814793228915312129DRYL
2020-12-06 23:00:03FORECAST20216814847.7333.8140.7755.9560306666670.01530.04533.283.3253FF15.73127.7325329.5984930383118.4430233841390.94105525607189915311124.5DRYL
2020-12-06 19:00:04FORECAST20216814847.2134.9641.08555.9541173333330.00770.03773.283.3177FF15.21127.2125329.5971891255918.442319793070.93467757635553915311124.5DRYL
2020-12-06 15:00:04FORECAST20216814847.3934.540.94555.9637933333330.00470.03473.283.3147FF15.39127.3925329.6037831334818.4458780011670.93694301389247915311124.5DRYL
2020-12-06 11:00:04FORECAST20216814847.0736.0541.5655.9053984189190.00440.03443.283.3144FF15.07127.0725329.5639856601718.4244059228590.93287246567045915311124.5DRYL
2020-12-06 07:00:07FORECAST20216814846.7536.1741.4656.1652275453840.00340.08343.283.3634FF14.75127.7525329.7410198764718.5199794124090.92860235137085915311124.5DRYL
2020-12-06 03:00:07FORECAST20216814846.7335.4141.0756.5405263710030.00330.19333.283.4733FF14.73125.7325329.9965230425818.6581771134280.92832872430222915312129DRYL
2020-12-05 23:00:05FORECAST20216814846.6135.6541.1358.3341780232150.0040.2643.283.544FF14.61119.6125331.2142817636519.3211128762320.92667009759353915312129DRYL
2020-12-05 19:00:05FORECAST20216814846.4235.5540.98558.2603158522310.01440.31443.283.5944TF14.42122.4225331.1642441852819.29373346520.92398431845601915312129DRYL
2020-12-05 15:00:05FORECAST20216814846.5736.0941.3358.0712545290130.04530.25533.283.5353FF14.57120.5725331.0361227108119.2236829402370.92611076807555915312129DRYL
2020-12-05 11:00:06FORECAST20216814847.4136.0541.7357.879901888380.03350.31353.283.5935TF15.41121.4125330.9063858116519.1528291450170.93719091755081915312129DRYL
2020-12-05 06:59:50FORECAST20216814848.2136.4442.32557.8200315075220.0330.3933.283.673TF16.21121.2125330.8657808005219.1306698706470.94650015137525915312129DRYL
2020-12-05 03:00:07FORECAST20216814847.9135.5241.71557.7799122241140.03760.36763.283.6476TF15.91121.9125330.8385678313419.1158234096460.94314577563741915312129DRYL
2020-12-04 23:00:05FORECAST20216814848.0935.7141.958.4266492165580.03710.36713.293.6571TF16.09123.0925331.2769127044819.3553999721290.94517765313177915312129DRYL
2020-12-04 18:58:40FORECAST20216814848.933.4341.16558.0105706666670.00220.49223.293.7822TF16.9119.925330.9949859403219.2012080222030.953622336820559153131213.5DRYL
2020-12-04 15:00:46FORECAST20216814849.0936.0542.5757.56432666666700.263.293.55FF17.09125.0925330.6922883317719.0360789116770.9554441444892915312129DRYL
2020-12-04 11:00:04FORECAST20216814843.2335.6939.4656.9599866666670.00090.41093.293.7009TF11.23119.2325330.2818032166918.8128471074650.86714386536004915312129DRYL
2020-12-04 07:00:07FORECAST20216814848.4535.2841.86556.9946109643590.00070.34073.293.6307TF16.45118.4525330.3053380557518.8256242419390.94906948009969915312129DRYL
2020-12-04 03:00:08FORECAST20216814847.8735.3241.59556.85197550.00040.17043.293.4604FF15.87117.8725330.2083725300718.7729983049740.94268631850039915312129DRYL
2020-12-03 23:00:06FORECAST20216814849.0435.0442.0458.5376866666670.00090.04093.33.3409FF17.04130.0425331.3520991766619.3965853579460.95497038599233915311124.5DRYL
2020-12-03 19:00:06FORECAST20216814849.0435.0542.04558.5921893333330.00090.11093.293.4009FF17.04130.0425331.3889966539519.4168068349310.95497038599233915312129DRYL
2020-12-03 15:00:06FORECAST20216814847.5132.6340.0759.0187533333330.00090.25093.293.5409FF15.51124.5125331.6775976391519.5751983212580.9384190995829915312129DRYL
2020-12-03 10:58:47FORECAST20216814845.8932.138.99558.8586021518060.00020.21023.293.5002FF13.89117.8925331.5692805958219.515704372350.91609820266817915312129DRYL
2020-12-03 07:00:07FORECAST20216814845.8932.1239.00557.9605010.00020.17023.293.4602FF13.89122.8925330.9610396152519.1826676675810.91609820266817915312129DRYL
2020-12-03 03:00:08FORECAST20216814846.4332.6939.5658.0602130.00020.40023.293.6902TF14.43121.4325331.0286382793419.2195932475980.924127510875915312129DRYL
2020-12-02 23:00:06FORECAST20216814846.2533.754059.1483506666670.08750.30753.313.6175TF14.25126.2525331.765217569219.6233654277860.92151856824278915312129DRYL
2020-12-02 19:00:06FORECAST20216814846.2633.7740.01559.2540760.08750.37753.33.6775TF14.26121.2625331.8366764329119.6626756449430.92166526501357915312129DRYL
2020-12-02 15:00:06FORECAST20216814845.2533.5639.40559.1938333333330.04390.27393.33.5739FF13.25125.2525331.795961273119.6402748322730.90577792200897915312129DRYL
2020-12-02 11:00:06FORECAST20216814847.0332.974058.5377786666670.01350.22353.33.5235FF15.03123.0325331.3521614635719.3966194884760.93234972258047915312129DRYL
2020-12-02 07:00:07FORECAST20216814847.0432.9840.0158.3549559166670.01350.22353.33.5235FF15.04124.0425331.2283559575519.3288161102530.93248070126473915312129DRYL
2020-12-02 02:59:52FORECAST20216814847.6133.1240.36558.5191745833330.01130.19133.293.4813FF15.61121.6125331.3395656153319.389717886610.93962850929342915312129DRYL
2020-12-01 23:00:03FORECAST20216814848.3633.7541.05557.7533293333330.00680.00683.223.2268FF16.36123.3625330.8205350897519.1059873132680.94811769968326915311124.5DRYL
2020-12-01 19:00:06FORECAST20216814848.4133.7941.157.7693466666670.00680.00683.223.2268FF16.41123.4125330.8314007367919.1119138773830.94864819097517915311124.5DRYL
2020-12-01 15:00:06FORECAST20216814846.5433.7940.16558.0970274505380.01310.03313.223.2531FF14.54120.5425331.0535919078919.2332296166720.92568914309639915311124.5DRYL
2020-12-01 11:00:06FORECAST20216814844.3531.0637.70558.1593209718640.30360.60363.223.8236TF12.35115.3525331.0958104859119.2563075144890.889728400627299153131213.5DRYL
2020-12-01 07:00:07FORECAST20216814844.3731.0737.7258.5087433012370.30360.60363.223.8236TF12.37115.3725331.3325028813719.3858483584420.890105070846879153131213.5DRYL
2020-12-01 02:59:00FORECAST20216814845.5331.1838.35558.5541491212030.17420.19423.223.4142FF13.53119.5325331.3632445466919.4026928344730.91040240188727915312129DRYL
2020-11-30 22:59:51FORECAST20216814845.8931.2338.5655.1416825894370.00040.00042.72.7004FF13.89104.8925329.0429520101718.1439820180360.91609820266817915311124.5DRYL
2020-11-30 19:00:40FORECAST20216814845.9331.2338.5855.338183537251002.692.69FF13.93103.9325329.177108416318.2160632418030.91671394978337915311124.5DRYL
2020-11-30 15:00:07FORECAST20216814842.0327.9134.9755.935787754459002.712.71FF10.0396.0325329.5846974258718.4355796823310.83962938201254914311124DRYL
2020-11-30 11:00:06FORECAST2021681483731.4134.20556.55802367506600.042.632.67FF59225330.0084292530418.6646245546650.68793532570371913311123.5DRYL
2020-11-30 07:00:07FORECAST20216814832.9731.6132.2958.39589931911200.042.973.01FF0.9788.9725331.2560873644319.3439971265760.53473535639021913311123.5DRYL
2020-11-30 03:00:07FORECAST20216814834.2933.5233.90559.845461478098003.563.56FF2.29101.2925332.2360352195519.8828188473680.58672203118012913311123.5DRYL