Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 9, 2020

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DAY 40 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/10/2020 07:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 26.68°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 17.11°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 21.89°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.093 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 86 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: -5 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 181 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.27 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.64 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 8.34 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 8.98 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 9 in SWE DAY: 53 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 326.05 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 2.90 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 120 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 5 D2: 1 D3: 3 D4: 3 D5: 2 HSdry: 31.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-10 07:00:02	OBSERVATION	2021	40	120	26.67992	17.11004	21.89498	8.89762	0.27000000000004	0.64000000000004	8.34	8.98	T	T	-5.32008	180.67992	53	326.05291051349	2.901094897643	0.092614322427019	86	1	5	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	L
2020-11-10 03:00:04	OBSERVATION	2021	40	120	26.67992	17.11004	21.89498	8.89762	0.27000000000004	0.64000000000004	8.34	8.98	T	T	-5.32008	180.67992	53	326.05291051349	2.901094897643	0.092614322427019	86	1	5	1	3	3	2	31.5	WET	L
2020-11-09 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.68	24.31	28.495	0	0.315	0.685	8.34	9.025	T	T	0.68	186.68	53	319.83922858493	0	0.25156607302197	86	2	5	1	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-11-09 07:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.53	17.79	25.16	0	0.4076	0.7776	8.34	9.1176	T	T	0.53	186.53	53	319.83922858493	0	0.24637545555297	86	1	5	1	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2020-11-09 02:58:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.72	17.64	25.18	0	0.3804	0.7504	8.34	9.0904	T	T	0.72	186.72	53	319.83922858493	0	0.2529599168091	86	2	5	1	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-11-08 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.34	22.62	27.48	0	0.3668	0.6968	8.34	9.0368	T	T	0.34	197.34	53	319.83922858493	0	0.23988384264574	86	1	5	1	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2020-11-08 19:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	33.21	22.5	27.855	0	0.3683	0.6983	8.34	9.0383	T	T	1.21	198.21	53	319.83922858493	0	0.27035830633113	86	2	5	1	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-11-08 14:57:59	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.57	25.98	29.275	0	0.3473	0.6773	8.34	9.0173	T	T	0.57	197.57	53	319.83922858493	0	0.24775399190987	86	1	5	1	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2020-11-08 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.92	26.17	29.545	0	0.2836	0.6136	8.34	8.9536	T	T	0.92	197.92	53	319.83922858493	0	0.25998954844657	86	2	5	1	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-11-08 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	33.03	25.99	29.51	0	0.2455	0.5755	8.34	8.9155	T	T	1.03	198.03	53	319.83922858493	0	0.26389828677926	86	2	5	1	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-11-08 03:00:05	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.52	26.53	29.525	0	0.2732	0.6032	8.34	8.9432	T	T	0.52	198.52	53	319.83922858493	0	0.24603146397327	86	1	5	1	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2020-11-07 23:00:01	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.6	26.45	29.525	0	0.2833	0.3533	8.34	8.6933	T	T	0.6	204.6	53	319.83922858493	0	0.24879058660819	86	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-11-07 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	33.74	25.67	29.705	0	0.266	0.326	8.34	8.666	T	T	1.74	205.74	53	319.83922858493	0	0.28982628424636	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-07 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.68	27.12	29.9	0	0.3226	0.3826	8.34	8.7226	T	T	0.68	203.68	53	319.83922858493	0	0.25156607302197	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-07 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.22	26.3	29.26	0	0.332	0.392	8.34	8.732	T	T	0.22	203.22	53	319.83922858493	0	0.23583236715096	86	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-11-07 07:00:05	FORECAST	2021	40	120	32.88	25.18	29.03	0	0.3849	0.4349	8.34	8.7749	T	T	0.88	205.88	53	319.83922858493	0	0.25857561766435	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-07 02:57:58	FORECAST	2021	40	120	33.57	26.2	29.885	0	0.3535	0.4135	8.34	8.7535	T	T	1.57	206.57	53	319.83922858493	0	0.28351072151463	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-06 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	33.38	24.54	28.96	0	0.3723	0.4523	7.86	8.3123	T	T	1.38	216.38	53	319.83922858493	0	0.27653107697782	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-06 18:57:58	FORECAST	2021	40	120	33.5	26.9	30.2	0	0.4094	0.4694	7.86	8.3294	T	T	1.5	216.5	53	319.83922858493	0	0.28092948234972	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-06 14:57:58	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.11	26.09	30.6	0	0.3212	0.3712	7.86	8.2312	T	T	3.11	219.11	53	319.83922858493	0	0.34296081256179	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-06 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	31.91	26.07	28.99	0	0.2764	0.3164	7.86	8.1764	T	T	-0.09	213.91	53	319.83922858493	0	0.22554249303885	86	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-11-06 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.33	26.79	31.56	0	0.2764	0.3664	7.94	8.3064	T	T	4.33	215.33	53	319.83922858493	0	0.39309067316321	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-06 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.32	27.48	31.9	0	0.2197	0.2497	8.13	8.3797	T	T	4.32	215.32	53	319.83922858493	0	0.39267114927406	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.06	26.75	30.905	0	0.2341	0.2641	7.72	7.9841	T	T	3.06	205.06	53	319.83922858493	0	0.34095732380581	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 19:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.19	25.9	30.545	0	0.3006	0.3306	7.56	7.8906	T	T	3.19	213.19	53	319.83922858493	0	0.34617557288285	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.19	26.34	30.765	0	0.3006	0.3506	7.6	7.9506	T	T	3.19	213.19	53	319.83922858493	0	0.34617557288285	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 10:59:39	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.85	27.1	31.475	0	0.2077	0.2577	7.54	7.7977	T	T	3.85	207.85	53	319.83922858493	0	0.37310200460887	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.85	27.1	31.475	0	0.2077	0.2477	7.52	7.7677	T	T	3.85	215.85	53	319.83922858493	0	0.37310200460887	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 02:58:14	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.77	26.18	30.975	0	0.1756	0.1956	7.8	7.9956	T	T	3.77	219.77	53	319.83922858493	0	0.36980189450574	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.46	25.56	31.01	0	0.0456	0.0856	7.65	7.7356	T	T	4.46	223.46	53	319.83922858493	0	0.39855561385648	86	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-04 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.46	25.56	31.01	0	0.0456	0.1056	7.95	8.0556	T	T	4.46	223.46	53	319.83922858493	0	0.39855561385648	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.43	26.66	31.545	0	0.0588	0.0988	8.1	8.1988	T	T	4.43	225.43	53	319.83922858493	0	0.39729266462308	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.34	27.03	31.685	0	0.041	0.081	7.66	7.741	T	T	4.34	224.34	53	319.83922858493	0	0.39351032121688	86	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-04 07:00:06	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.34	27.03	31.685	0	0.041	0.091	7.85	7.941	T	T	4.34	214.34	53	319.83922858493	0	0.39351032121688	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.73	26.37	31.05	0	0.1245	0.2045	8.21	8.4145	T	T	3.73	216.73	53	319.83922858493	0	0.36815540950422	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.04	23.37	29.705	0	0.1247	0.1747	7.74	7.9147	T	T	4.04	211.04	53	319.83922858493	0	0.38097675560266	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 18:58:19	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.04	23.37	29.705	0	0.1247	0.1747	7.88	8.0547	T	T	4.04	212.04	53	319.83922858493	0	0.38097675560266	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 14:58:09	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.13	25.81	30.47	0	0.0993	0.1493	8.27	8.4193	T	T	3.13	207.13	53	319.83922858493	0	0.34376344920042	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	34.81	23.57	29.19	0	0.022	0.092	8.48	8.572	T	T	2.81	200.81	53	319.83922858493	0	0.33100794483614	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	34.81	23.57	29.19	0	0.022	0.092	8.47	8.562	T	T	2.81	200.81	53	319.83922858493	0	0.33100794483614	86	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	36.32	22.25	29.285	0	0.022	0.032	8.29	8.322	T	T	4.32	210.32	53	319.83922858493	0	0.39267114927406	86	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-02 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.5	21.39	28.445	0	0.0329	0.0429	8.44	8.4829	T	T	3.5	202.5	53	319.83922858493	0	0.35873587586943	86	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-02 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.5	21.39	28.445	0	0	0.01	8.18	8.19	T	T	3.5	201.5	53	319.83922858493	0	0.35873587586943	86	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-02 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	40	120	35.12	20.08	27.6	0	0	0	8.06	8.06	T	T	3.12	199.12	53	319.83922858493	0	0.34336204262707	86	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-02 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	40	120	27.86	22.42	25.14	0	0	0	8.68	8.68	T	T	-4.14	196.86	53	319.83922858493	0	0.11587738354807	86	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-02 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	24.19	22.54	23.365	0	0	0	8.54	8.54	T	T	-7.81	190.19	53	319.83922858493	0	0.055109227451635	86	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	WET	L
2020-11-02 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	40	120	21.61	20.92	21.265	0	0	0	7.82	7.82	T	T	-10.39	183.61	53	319.83922858493	0	0.030063312352297	86	1	5	1	1	5	2	17.5	WET	L