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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, November 8, 2020

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DAY 39 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/09/2020 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 23.93°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 16.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 20.40°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.052 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: -8 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 186 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.05 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.86 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 7.85 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 8.71 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: True P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 7 in SWE DAY: 54 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 320.89 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 2.25 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 119 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 1 D₁: 5 D₂: 1 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 52.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-09 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2021	39	119	23.93006	16.86992	20.39999	0.049999999999955	0.85999999999995	7.85	8.71	T	T	-8.06994	185.93006	54	320.89385445808	0.051765057984787	89	1	5	1	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2020-11-09 02:58:03	OBSERVATION	2021	39	119	23.93006	16.86992	20.39999	0.049999999999955	0.85999999999995	7.85	8.71	T	T	-8.06994	185.93006	54	320.89385445808	0.051765057984787	89	1	5	1	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2020-11-08 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	39	119	34.57	23.22	28.895	0.0095	0.8195	7.85	8.6695	T	T	2.57	196.57	54	320.89385445808	0.29282600590748	89	2	5	1	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-11-08 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	34.95	18.01	26.48	0.0087	0.8187	7.85	8.6687	T	T	2.95	196.95	54	320.89385445808	0.30624545884222	89	2	5	1	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-11-08 03:00:05	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.5	19.94	27.72	0.013	0.823	7.85	8.673	T	T	3.5	197.5	54	320.89385445808	0.32613339132034	89	2	5	1	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-11-07 23:00:01	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.85	21.33	28.59	0.0073	0.5573	7.85	8.4073	T	T	3.85	203.85	54	320.89385445808	0.33905645790086	89	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	L
2020-11-07 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	36.08	19.92	28	0.0043	0.5543	7.85	8.4043	T	T	4.08	204.08	54	320.89385445808	0.34765420243789	89	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	L
2020-11-07 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.35	23.96	29.655	0.0025	0.5525	7.85	8.4025	T	T	3.35	203.35	54	320.89385445808	0.32065704827257	89	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	L
2020-11-07 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.18	23.82	29.5	0.0045	0.5545	7.85	8.4045	T	T	3.18	203.18	54	320.89385445808	0.31449739913514	89	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	L
2020-11-07 07:00:05	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.07	23.39	29.23	0.0041	0.5441	7.85	8.3941	T	T	3.07	205.07	54	320.89385445808	0.31053892213151	89	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	L
2020-11-07 02:57:58	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.38	23.65	29.515	0.0031	0.5531	7.85	8.4031	T	T	3.38	205.38	54	320.89385445808	0.32174925024816	89	2	5	2	3	5	2	67.5	WET	L
2020-11-06 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.23	22.63	28.93	0.0069	0.0869	7.85	7.9369	T	T	3.23	215.23	54	320.89385445808	0.31630381201274	89	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-06 18:57:58	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.02	21.32	28.17	0.0061	0.0661	7.85	7.9161	T	T	3.02	215.02	54	320.89385445808	0.30874679860626	89	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-06 14:57:58	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.63	22.55	29.09	0.0023	0.0623	7.85	7.9123	T	T	3.63	215.63	54	320.89385445808	0.33091010839265	89	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-06 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.47	21.19	28.33	0.0018	0.0518	7.85	7.9018	T	T	3.47	214.47	54	320.89385445808	0.325035072135	89	2	5	2	1	5	2	22.5	WET	L
2020-11-06 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.62	22.89	29.255	0.0013	0.1813	7.85	8.0313	T	T	3.62	210.62	54	320.89385445808	0.33054167769406	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-06 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.8	23.34	29.57	0.0013	0.3113	7.85	8.1613	T	T	3.8	210.8	54	320.89385445808	0.33719822812652	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.4	23.84	29.62	0.0016	0.4016	7.35	7.7516	T	T	3.4	202.4	54	320.89385445808	0.32247824168322	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 19:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	36.28	24.51	30.395	0.0027	0.2427	7.35	7.5927	T	T	4.28	210.28	54	320.89385445808	0.35519488959227	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	36.15	23.8	29.975	0.0045	0.3045	7.35	7.6545	T	T	4.15	210.15	54	320.89385445808	0.35028677925549	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 10:59:39	FORECAST	2021	39	119	29.63	20.76	25.195	0.0018	0.2418	7.35	7.5918	T	T	-2.37	203.63	54	320.89385445808	0.14744614636049	89	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-11-05 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	36.88	22.42	29.65	0.005	0.095	7.46	7.555	T	T	4.88	211.88	54	320.89385445808	0.37814862292708	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-05 02:58:14	FORECAST	2021	39	119	36.06	21.14	28.6	0.0007	0.1007	7.72	7.8207	T	T	4.06	216.06	54	320.89385445808	0.34690337755089	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	39	119	37.24	22.88	30.06	0.0009	0.1809	7.51	7.6909	T	T	5.24	219.24	54	320.89385445808	0.39213626044899	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	39	119	37.24	24.33	30.785	0.0009	0.3209	7.69	8.0109	T	T	5.24	219.24	54	320.89385445808	0.39213626044899	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	39	119	36.82	23.96	30.39	0.0009	0.2309	7.91	8.1409	T	T	4.82	220.82	54	320.89385445808	0.37583224526429	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.11	23.72	29.415	0.002	0.272	7.43	7.702	T	T	3.11	220.11	54	320.89385445808	0.31197586563724	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 07:00:06	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.11	23.72	29.415	0.002	0.332	7.57	7.902	T	T	3.11	210.11	54	320.89385445808	0.31197586563724	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-04 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	35.7	24.05	29.875	0.0169	0.3569	7.93	8.2869	T	T	3.7	212.7	54	320.89385445808	0.3334936903882	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	34.38	22.49	28.435	0.0078	0.2878	7.5	7.7878	T	T	2.38	207.38	54	320.89385445808	0.28622015988182	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 18:58:19	FORECAST	2021	39	119	34.38	22.49	28.435	0.0078	0.3178	7.61	7.9278	T	T	2.38	208.38	54	320.89385445808	0.28622015988182	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 14:58:09	FORECAST	2021	39	119	34.38	23.27	28.825	0.0095	0.2495	8.07	8.3195	T	T	2.38	204.38	54	320.89385445808	0.28622015988182	89	2	5	2	2	5	2	45	WET	L
2020-11-03 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	32.69	19.31	26	0.0308	0.2108	8.34	8.5508	T	T	0.69	197.69	54	320.89385445808	0.23078524658026	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-03 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	32.69	19.31	26	0.0308	0.2908	8.25	8.5408	T	T	0.69	197.69	54	320.89385445808	0.23078524658026	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-03 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	33.15	22.46	27.805	0.004	0.294	8.01	8.304	T	T	1.15	206.15	54	320.89385445808	0.24525504044662	89	1	5	2	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-11-02 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	39	119	32.88	19.28	26.08	0.0069	0.3369	8.11	8.4469	T	T	0.88	198.88	54	320.89385445808	0.23670346915918	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-02 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	39	119	32.88	19.28	26.08	0.0069	0.3669	7.82	8.1869	T	T	0.88	197.88	54	320.89385445808	0.23670346915918	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-02 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	39	119	30.43	18.08	24.255	0.0014	0.4014	7.66	8.0614	T	T	-1.57	196.43	54	320.89385445808	0.16700371726278	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-02 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	31.45	17.95	24.7	0.0026	0.6726	8.01	8.6826	T	T	-0.55	201.45	54	320.89385445808	0.19424971843311	89	1	5	2	3	5	2	60	WET	L
2020-11-02 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	31.45	17.95	24.7	0.0026	0.6726	7.87	8.5426	T	T	-0.55	198.45	54	320.89385445808	0.19424971843311	89	1	5	1	3	5	2	52.5	WET	L
2020-11-02 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	39	119	29.43	18.1	23.765	0.0026	0.4826	7.34	7.8226	T	T	-2.57	194.43	54	320.89385445808	0.14280617199413	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-01 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	33.04	20.56	26.8	0.0031	0.1931	7.46	7.6531	T	T	1.04	197.04	54	320.89385445808	0.24175118509253	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-01 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	39	119	33.05	20.57	26.81	0.0029	0.1929	7.98	8.1729	T	T	1.05	194.05	54	320.89385445808	0.24206859244234	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-01 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	33.88	20.41	27.145	0.0029	0.2129	7.57	7.7829	T	T	1.88	189.88	54	320.89385445808	0.26918242712978	89	2	5	1	2	5	2	40	WET	L
2020-11-01 10:58:26	FORECAST	2021	39	119	23.94	20.05	21.995	0.0027	0.2627	8.1	8.3627	T	T	-8.06	179.94	54	320.89385445808	0.051872631102225	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-01 07:00:03	FORECAST	2021	39	119	22.34	20.06	21.2	0.0027	0.2627	7.59	7.8527	T	T	-9.66	179.34	54	320.89385445808	0.036709562697927	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L
2020-11-01 03:00:05	FORECAST	2021	39	119	22.54	21.67	22.105	0.0019	0.2519	6.57	6.8219	T	T	-9.46	184.54	54	320.89385445808	0.03838009392998	89	1	5	1	2	5	2	35	WET	L