Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, November 4, 2020

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DAY 35 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 11/05/2020 07:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.28°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.84°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 43.56°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.650 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 88 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 13 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 213 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.91 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.07 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.93 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 7.00 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 58 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 325.07 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 115 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 3 D1: 5 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 125.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-11-05 07:00:03	OBSERVATION	2021	35	115	45.28004	41.84006	43.56005	0	0.90999999999997	3.07	3.93	7	T	T	13.28004	213.28004	58	325.07250963822	0	0.65007842647265	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-05 02:58:14	OBSERVATION	2021	35	115	45.28004	41.84006	43.56005	0	0.90999999999997	3.07	3.93	7	T	T	13.28004	213.28004	58	325.07250963822	0	0.65007842647265	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-04 11:00:02	FORECAST	2021	35	115	48.46	40.85	44.655	0	0.3257	2.4857	3.93	6.4157	T	T	16.46	216.46	58	325.07250963822	0	0.75891479523531	88	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-11-04 07:00:05	FORECAST	2021	35	115	46.14	40.62	43.38	0	0.4261	2.5861	3.93	6.5161	T	T	14.14	214.14	58	325.07250963822	0	0.68129765214669	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-04 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	35	115	45.94	40.08	43.01	0	0.7897	2.9497	3.93	6.8797	T	T	13.94	213.94	58	325.07250963822	0	0.67414083015986	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-03 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	47.49	40.12	43.805	0	0.9665	2.4065	3.93	6.3365	T	T	15.49	209.49	58	325.07250963822	0	0.72775141716851	88	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-11-03 18:58:19	FORECAST	2021	35	115	48.01	40.77	44.39	0	0.9872	2.4272	3.93	6.3572	T	T	16.01	210.01	58	325.07250963822	0	0.74470284722705	88	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-11-03 14:58:09	FORECAST	2021	35	115	46.31	41.26	43.785	0	1.137	2.577	3.93	6.507	T	T	14.31	208.31	58	325.07250963822	0	0.68732840515418	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-03 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	44.96	40.69	42.825	0	1.3983	2.8383	3.93	6.7683	T	T	12.96	206.96	58	325.07250963822	0	0.63818149474752	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-03 07:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.99	40.41	42.2	0	1.5531	3.0231	3.93	6.9531	T	T	11.99	206.99	58	325.07250963822	0	0.60134398868676	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-03 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	35	115	46.46	40.11	43.285	0	1.0952	2.7752	3.93	6.7052	T	T	14.46	213.46	58	325.07250963822	0	0.69260842872353	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-02 23:00:02	FORECAST	2021	35	115	44.35	40.75	42.55	0	1.0635	2.6735	3.93	6.6035	T	T	12.35	210.35	58	325.07250963822	0	0.61514097188946	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-02 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	35	115	44.5	39.68	42.09	0	1.0872	2.6972	3.93	6.6272	T	T	12.5	210.5	58	325.07250963822	0	0.62084806774814	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-02 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	35	115	46.29	38.76	42.525	0	1.2262	2.3862	3.93	6.3162	T	T	14.29	213.29	58	325.07250963822	0	0.68662145886514	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-02 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	45.96	38.58	42.27	0	1.5495	2.6395	3.93	6.5695	T	T	13.96	213.96	58	325.07250963822	0	0.67485946144634	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-02 07:00:04	FORECAST	2021	35	115	45.28	37.46	41.37	0	1.5943	2.7343	3.93	6.6643	T	T	13.28	211.28	58	325.07250963822	0	0.65007694841778	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-02 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	35	115	48.64	41.16	44.9	0	1.5508	2.6908	3.93	6.6208	T	T	16.64	207.64	58	325.07250963822	0	0.7644769461678	88	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-11-01 23:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.87	41.11	42.49	0	1.7137	2.7237	3.94	6.6637	T	T	11.87	202.87	58	325.07250963822	0	0.59671576590978	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-01 19:00:02	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.78	41.26	42.52	0	2.2275	3.3775	3.94	7.3175	T	T	11.78	199.78	58	325.07250963822	0	0.59323565016258	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-01 15:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.16	41.3	42.23	0	1.6839	2.8139	3.94	6.7539	T	T	11.16	199.16	58	325.07250963822	0	0.56907536150689	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-01 10:58:26	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.67	40.85	42.26	0	1.0984	2.1584	3.94	6.0984	T	T	11.67	199.67	58	325.07250963822	0	0.58897218405989	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-11-01 07:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	44.72	42.61	43.665	0	0.7788	1.6488	3.94	5.5888	T	F	12.72	200.72	58	325.07250963822	0	0.62917074027778	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-11-01 03:00:04	FORECAST	2021	35	115	49.29	41.39	45.34	0	0.7091	1.4691	3.94	5.4091	T	F	17.29	205.29	58	325.07250963822	0	0.78396199158708	88	4	5	2	4	5	2	110	WET	MH
2020-11-01 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	49.07	41.24	45.155	0	1.0771	2.1171	3.94	6.0571	T	T	17.07	200.07	58	325.07250963822	0	0.77747363955993	88	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-31 19:59:46	FORECAST	2021	35	115	49.07	41.26	45.165	0	0.9985	2.0285	3.94	5.9685	T	T	17.07	204.07	58	325.07250963822	0	0.77747363955993	88	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	H
2020-10-31 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	44.44	41.52	42.98	0	0.8166	1.6766	3.94	5.6166	T	F	12.44	200.44	58	325.07250963822	0	0.61856830999369	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-10-31 11:58:25	FORECAST	2021	35	115	49.33	40.86	45.095	0	1.0089	1.6689	3.94	5.6089	T	F	17.33	207.33	58	325.07250963822	0	0.7851298278756	88	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2020-10-31 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	50.36	40.93	45.645	0	1.0089	1.6489	3.94	5.5889	T	F	18.36	209.36	58	325.07250963822	0	0.81392086908158	88	4	5	2	5	5	2	137.5	WET	MH
2020-10-31 04:00:05	FORECAST	2021	35	115	44.14	41.38	42.76	0	1.2124	2.2324	3.94	6.1724	T	T	12.14	200.14	58	325.07250963822	0	0.60710921897376	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-31 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	48.37	39.71	44.04	0	1.7401	2.4401	3.59	6.0301	T	T	16.37	194.37	58	325.07250963822	0	0.75610720752406	88	4	5	1	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-30 19:59:42	FORECAST	2021	35	115	48.37	39.7	44.035	0	1.7401	2.4401	3.62	6.0601	T	T	16.37	195.37	58	325.07250963822	0	0.75610720752406	88	4	5	1	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-30 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	42.9	40.28	41.59	0	2.1141	2.8641	3.62	6.4841	T	T	10.9	190.9	58	325.07250963822	0	0.55886063953027	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-30 12:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	47.68	39.2	43.44	0	0.7306	1.4206	3.62	5.0406	T	F	15.68	193.68	58	325.07250963822	0	0.73400941978257	88	4	5	1	4	5	2	100	WET	MH
2020-10-30 07:59:46	FORECAST	2021	35	115	47.68	39.21	43.445	0	0.7306	1.4206	3.84	5.2606	T	F	15.68	195.68	58	325.07250963822	0	0.73400941978257	88	4	5	1	4	5	2	100	WET	MH
2020-10-30 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	47.84	39.17	43.505	0	0.6227	1.3527	4.03	5.3827	T	F	15.84	206.84	58	325.07250963822	0	0.73922227516879	88	4	5	2	4	5	2	110	WET	MH
2020-10-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.56	33.46	38.51	0	1.4796	2.8496	4.08	6.9296	T	T	11.56	193.56	58	325.07250963822	0	0.58469818416182	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-29 20:00:02	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.56	33.47	38.515	0	1.4796	2.8496	4.24	7.0896	T	T	11.56	202.56	58	325.07250963822	0	0.58469818416182	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-29 16:00:02	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.59	32.08	37.835	0	1.6358	2.8658	4.17	7.0358	T	T	11.59	202.59	58	325.07250963822	0	0.5858648372774	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-29 12:00:04	FORECAST	2021	35	115	45.47	36.38	40.925	0	1.0324	1.7024	4.07	5.7724	T	F	13.47	190.47	58	325.07250963822	0	0.65707171886263	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-10-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	45.47	36.38	40.925	0	1.0324	1.7024	4.04	5.7424	T	F	13.47	194.47	58	325.07250963822	0	0.65707171886263	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	MH
2020-10-29 04:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	44.32	34.3	39.31	0	0.79	1.58	4.04	5.62	T	F	12.32	196.32	58	325.07250963822	0	0.6139965093861	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	M
2020-10-28 23:58:32	FORECAST	2021	35	115	41.25	33.83	37.54	0	0.7001	1.9301	4.08	6.0101	T	T	9.25	202.25	58	325.07250963822	0	0.49340402142943	88	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-28 19:59:45	FORECAST	2021	35	115	41.25	33.83	37.54	0	0.6233	1.8533	4.06	5.9133	T	T	9.25	202.25	58	325.07250963822	0	0.49340402142943	88	2	5	2	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.7	39.23	41.465	0	0.6307	1.7307	4.12	5.8507	T	F	11.7	203.7	58	325.07250963822	0	0.59013601273052	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	MH
2020-10-28 12:00:02	FORECAST	2021	35	115	42.63	39.72	41.175	0	0.6157	2.2557	4.11	6.3657	T	T	10.63	195.63	58	325.07250963822	0	0.54821153245921	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H
2020-10-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2021	35	115	42.63	41.98	42.305	0	0.4555	2.0955	3.98	6.0755	T	T	10.63	200.63	58	325.07250963822	0	0.54821153245921	88	3	5	2	5	5	2	125	WET	H
2020-10-28 04:00:04	FORECAST	2021	35	115	43.91	43.01	43.46	0	0.1851	1.9751	3.93	5.9051	T	T	11.91	196.91	58	325.07250963822	0	0.59826004696035	88	3	5	1	5	5	2	112.5	WET	H