Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, November 30, 2020

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DAY 61 OF WATER YEAR 2021, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 12/01/2020 07:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 34.91°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 21.05°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 27.98°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.491 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 89 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 3 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 51 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.78 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.02 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 10.15 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 11.17 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 62 in SWE DAY: 32 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 340.76 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 21.20 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 141 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 2 D1: 3 D2: 1 D3: 4 D4: 1 D5: 2 HSdry: 12.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2020-12-01 07:00:07	OBSERVATION	2021	61	141	34.91006	21.05006	27.98006	62.212802083333	0.78000000000003	1.02	10.15	11.17	T	T	2.91006	50.91006	32	340.76038800716	21.199658576929	0.49058986779556	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-12-01 02:59:00	OBSERVATION	2021	61	141	34.91006	21.05006	27.98006	62.212802083333	0.78000000000003	1.02	10.15	11.17	T	T	2.91006	50.91006	32	340.76038800716	21.199658576929	0.49058986779556	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-30 11:00:03	FORECAST	2021	61	141	28.53	23.83	26.18	58.846349151415	0.1966	0.4366	10.15	10.5866	T	T	-3.47	44.53	32	338.5522137059	19.922561773722	0.24268150969389	89	1	3	1	2	1	2	5	WET	L
2020-11-30 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	28.61	24.09	26.35	60.694376056152	0.5379	0.7779	10.15	10.9279	T	T	-3.39	44.61	32	339.76673648236	20.621930075432	0.24533334442776	89	1	3	1	3	1	2	7.5	WET	L
2020-11-30 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	32.17	24.1	28.135	62.551860665615	1.1332	1.3732	10.15	11.5232	T	T	0.17	48.17	32	340.98174357321	21.32904251351	0.37710581957561	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-29 22:59:00	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.21	24.77	28.99	63.002284796877	0.9942	1.2442	10.15	11.3942	T	T	1.21	47.21	32	341.27550983895	21.501136865073	0.41948568525244	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-29 19:00:03	FORECAST	2021	61	141	30.95	24.96	27.955	63.309923845299	1.0654	1.3154	10.15	11.4654	T	T	-1.05	44.95	32	341.47595870651	21.618816940709	0.32924741209619	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-29 15:00:02	FORECAST	2021	61	141	30.83	25.14	27.985	64.515413647829	1.0849	1.3349	10.15	11.4849	T	T	-1.17	44.83	32	342.25991396036	22.081039924223	0.32467287361121	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-29 11:00:05	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.28	24.7	28.99	64.262110947074	1.1993	1.4493	10.15	11.5993	T	T	1.28	47.28	32	342.0953850545	21.983771588854	0.42237805216862	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-29 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	32.97	24.56	28.765	64.35613421887	1.1996	1.4596	10.15	11.6096	T	T	0.97	44.97	32	342.15646879079	22.019867629355	0.40960289715118	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-29 02:59:08	FORECAST	2021	61	141	30.9	24.6	27.75	65.025549011589	1.1882	1.4382	10.15	11.5882	T	T	-1.1	38.9	32	342.59094351194	22.277164188262	0.3273381985036	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-28 22:59:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.68	24.47	29.075	63.309152670884	1.1106	1.1306	10.15	11.2806	T	T	1.68	53.68	32	341.47545642696	21.618521804294	0.43898164871188	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-28 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.51	24.42	28.965	63.359086808531	1.1112	1.1312	10.15	11.2812	T	T	1.51	52.51	32	341.50797738423	21.637633584893	0.43191023323143	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-28 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	32.06	24.59	28.325	62.719661734778	0.8955	0.9155	10.15	11.0655	T	T	0.060000000000002	51.06	32	341.09122258239	21.393126101069	0.37269915161133	89	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-28 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.29	24.24	28.765	63.147805644864	1.0017	1.0317	10.15	11.1817	T	T	1.29	53.29	32	341.37034661304	21.55678830084	0.42279159312699	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-28 06:59:09	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.3	24.06	28.68	63.700453960775	1.0828	1.1128	10.15	11.2628	T	T	1.3	52.3	32	341.73019152155	21.768368332025	0.42320521917628	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-28 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.62	24.08	28.85	63.122175123197	0.8634	0.9734	10.15	11.1234	T	T	1.62	47.62	32	341.35364559776	21.546984596364	0.4364835104785	89	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-27 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	34.95	24.91	29.93	66.617248390523	1.0783	1.4383	10.16	11.5983	T	T	2.95	58.95	32	343.62105296291	22.891089037443	0.49227295530123	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-27 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	35.1	24.54	29.82	66.029525297631	1.0714	1.4114	10.16	11.5714	T	T	3.1	57.1	32	343.24117764396	22.66405202243	0.49859499783217	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-27 15:00:05	FORECAST	2021	61	141	34.49	23.65	29.07	65.554502482634	1.0858	1.4358	10.16	11.5958	T	T	2.49	57.49	32	342.93373157883	22.480850158164	0.47290426771127	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-27 11:00:04	FORECAST	2021	61	141	34.37	23.81	29.09	67.264885923393	1.2753	1.7053	10.16	11.8653	T	T	2.37	57.37	32	344.03899780756	23.141743940724	0.46786022895912	89	2	3	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-27 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.4	23.81	28.605	67.259034124559	1.3008	1.6808	10.16	11.8408	T	T	1.4	55.4	32	344.03522449898	23.139476904627	0.42734606182545	89	2	3	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-27 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.12	24.01	28.565	67.135426093273	1.174	1.594	10.17	11.764	T	T	1.12	49.12	32	343.9555074837	23.091599552046	0.41577333048946	89	2	3	1	5	1	2	15	WET	L
2020-11-26 22:59:13	FORECAST	2021	61	141	37.21	25.91	31.56	59.636799878995	0.2834	0.6734	10.09	10.7634	T	T	5.21	73.21	32	339.07239551677	20.221192595925	0.58683459025688	89	3	3	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-26 18:59:55	FORECAST	2021	61	141	37.24	25.91	31.575	59.673760069894	0.2467	0.6867	10.08	10.7667	T	T	5.24	70.24	32	339.09669282313	20.235174688022	0.58806859276039	89	3	3	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-26 14:59:10	FORECAST	2021	61	141	38	25.33	31.665	60.943166789169	0.5201	0.9201	10.09	11.0101	T	T	6	66	32	339.92980670875	20.716398906861	0.6190083796844	89	3	3	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-26 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.12	24.87	28.995	62.010525160181	0.6587	1.0587	10.07	11.1287	T	T	1.12	55.12	32	340.62824000212	21.122536046919	0.41577333048946	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-26 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.14	24.89	29.015	61.975250406845	0.6587	1.0787	10.07	11.1487	T	T	1.14	60.14	32	340.60518796683	21.109091814115	0.41659766132393	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-26 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	32.37	24.68	28.525	62.069100329386	0.5016	0.8116	10.06	10.8716	T	T	0.37	58.37	32	340.66651428647	21.144864054109	0.38515870623662	89	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-25 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	31.24	25.99	28.615	60.438923432428	0.7032	1.0432	9.63	10.6732	T	T	-0.76	61.24	32	339.59919245143	20.525009590286	0.34040743655757	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	61	141	31.26	26.01	28.635	60.518299179741	0.7032	1.1332	9.64	10.7732	T	T	-0.74	64.26	32	339.65126436389	20.555116833551	0.34118240763006	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	31.18	24	27.59	61.323369039081	0.6782	1.1182	9.65	10.7682	T	T	-0.82	62.18	32	340.17881180924	20.860910815854	0.33808657240724	89	2	3	1	4	1	2	12	WET	L
2020-11-25 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	35.59	27.56	31.575	57.576670508182	0.4247	0.7047	9.62	10.3247	T	T	3.59	67.59	32	337.71447118157	19.444474833066	0.51924110377863	89	3	3	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-25 06:59:57	FORECAST	2021	61	141	35.59	27.58	31.585	58.394756488342	0.4247	0.6547	9.78	10.4347	T	T	3.59	71.59	32	338.25455935102	19.752292624374	0.51924110377863	89	3	3	1	3	1	2	10.5	WET	L
2020-11-25 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	30.81	26.97	28.89	60.910398343901	0.4261	0.6361	9.9	10.5361	T	T	-1.19	56.81	32	339.90833447849	20.703952053497	0.32391298945367	89	2	3	1	3	1	2	9	WET	L
2020-11-24 23:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	41.59	29.73	35.66	58.382852486717	0.0008	0.2308	10.37	10.6008	T	T	9.59	70.59	32	338.24670855017	19.747807689402	0.75244496922738	89	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-24 19:00:05	FORECAST	2021	61	141	41.6	29.74	35.67	58.237626642647	0.0008	0.2308	10.36	10.5908	T	T	9.6	71.6	32	338.150911627	19.693106540204	0.75277890492145	89	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-24 15:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	41.83	29.97	35.9	58.249679231515	0.0009	0.2109	10.5	10.7109	T	T	9.83	75.83	32	338.15886335367	19.697645319645	0.76039261042948	89	4	3	1	2	1	2	8	WET	L
2020-11-24 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	37.34	27.7	32.52	57.000330130474	0.0941	0.1241	10.44	10.5641	T	T	5.34	65.34	32	337.33330547261	19.228109775943	0.59217558425456	89	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-24 07:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	37.35	27.71	32.53	56.893706238894	0.0941	0.1241	10.59	10.7141	T	T	5.35	66.35	32	337.26272802312	19.188126573475	0.59258573492682	89	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-24 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	37.56	30.28	33.92	56.849815555544	0.1285	0.1685	10.62	10.7885	T	T	5.56	75.56	32	337.23366995157	19.171671935866	0.6011747994389	89	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-23 23:00:05	FORECAST	2021	61	141	34.31	26.97	30.64	54.275398112935	0.2748	0.4448	10.18	10.6248	T	T	2.31	73.31	32	335.52358247181	18.210676014936	0.46534009234259	89	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-11-23 19:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	34.32	28.07	31.195	54.227122255988	0.2722	0.4422	10.13	10.5722	T	T	2.32	72.32	32	335.49140772535	18.192733582556	0.46576002134657	89	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-11-23 14:59:24	FORECAST	2021	61	141	35.39	26.28	30.835	54.837898129603	0.1093	0.2893	10.4	10.6893	T	T	3.39	79.39	32	335.89818511896	18.419950457472	0.51081721323143	89	3	3	1	2	1	2	7	WET	L
2020-11-23 11:00:06	FORECAST	2021	61	141	31.36	27.74	29.55	54.32174547094	0.1763	0.2363	10.38	10.6163	T	T	-0.64	72.36	32	335.55446820634	18.227904413542	0.34506725618518	89	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-11-23 07:00:29	FORECAST	2021	61	141	31.4	29.27	30.335	55.106549103581	0.066	0.126	10.61	10.736	T	T	-0.6	64.4	32	336.07690722301	18.520038590464	0.34662580495455	89	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L
2020-11-23 03:00:07	FORECAST	2021	61	141	33.94	33.66	33.8	55.789311254004	0.0014	0.1214	11.01	11.1314	T	T	1.94	73.94	32	336.53057149397	18.774808799565	0.44983376237569	89	2	3	1	2	1	2	6	WET	L